Peter Cochrane

Fibre To The Home Costs In

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

www.ca-global.org

God was a comms engineer…

He gave us…SiliconSilicaEM Waves

EM Waves = Wireless/Radio

Silicon = Transistors

Silica = Whoops we chose copper

Some pre history 1970 - 80s

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.BT deployed fibre in the long lines network in just 6 years…everything improved & staffingwent down from 242,000 to 110,000

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

The fibre for coax transformation gave so much net improvement that the move into the local loop was an obvious target….and a reduction to only 35,000 staff !

Wavelength routing changes everything later…

TxRx

TxRx

TxRx

TxRx

TxRx

TxRx

TxRx Tx

Rx

TxRx

TxRx

TxRx

TxRx

TxRx

TxRx

TxRx

C2 3 C2 2

C2 1

C3 1 C3 2 C3 3

C1 1

C1 2 C1 3

2

3

1

1 + 2 + 3optical

amplifiers

to networknode

ring feeder

residentialsector

residentialsector

businesssector

Changing signal format withtime…allocated a carrier per session

The 1986 - 1990 trial system advanced to the point where > 6000 local switch sites could be removed from the network

Factories were built

in Ipsw

ich to

manufacture

all the devices a

nd plant..

So, how in 1986 did FTTH cost in?

Not by simple minded upfront costing!

But by whole life costing… by taking advantage of every aspect of fiber!

Costing in for FTTH …1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults

2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults

3) Remote routing of fiber saves ~ 95% work

4) Fibre reach removes electronics

5) Switch nodes/building stock reduced >90%

6) Reduced OSS & BSS systems & costs

7) Energy costs reduced by >50%

8) Staffing reduced by > 80%

9) Lead, copper & plastic recovered = $$ income

10)Year-on-year OPEX fall with new tech

And the projected cost of fibre toevery home & office in the UK?

Only £15Bn = 3 years profits!!

Time to complete ~ 10 years

So a spend ~ £1.5Bn/year

So, what went wrong????

How come 21CN has taken 25 yearsto arrive???

•Politics•Regulation•Libralisation•Stock Market•Vested interests•People•Demand

The GOOD News

In < 30 years optical fiber technology has…

- revolutionized bit transport- powered the internet- exponentially driven capacity up & cost down- completely changed the networks industry

And there is now a screaming need for FTTH & FTTO

But we are now engaged in… …a dive to the bottom…

…where everything is a commodity and the commercial environment is predatory!

Interesting, persistent, and… …really dumb questions!

How much bandwidth do we need?

What will people do with it?

What are the killer applications?

Can’t we do it all with wireless anyway?

Haven’t we invested in too much fiber/re?

Interesting, persistent, and… …really dumb assumptions!

Customer use/need is asymmetric!

Customers will pay for connectivity!

Netcos/Governments can control network use!

Content can be controlled!

Maximum penetration is 100%!

Government/Regulators understand !!!!

The biggest problems we face?

Not technology!

Not operational?

The business model/thinking is wrong

People find it hard to change

A world of opportunity & risk….

www.cochrane.org.uk

www.ca-global.org www.conceptlabs.net

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s