Pet Specialty Market Overview - PIJAC Canada · 2017-07-07 · © GfK September 27, 2016| PIJAC 1 Pet Specialty Market Overview Trends and Insights Presented by Maria Lange | PIJAC

1© GfK September 27, 2016 | PIJAC

Pet Specialty Market OverviewTrends and Insights

Presented by Maria Lange | PIJAC 2016


Working with Retailers to build a Pet Specialty Panel

Retailers Manufacturers• Subscribe to market reports• Make informed business

decisions using data

GfK• Receive data from retailers• Produce market reports, analyze,

& consult on market insights

• Send GfK their data• Receive market &

benchmark reports


GfK Retail Panelfor Pet Care

Existing retail panels

In progress

APACChina (2013)

North AmericaUSA (1994)

CEE / METAS Africa (2014)Czech Rep. (2015)Slovakia (2015)

Western EuropeUK & IRL Vet (2001); UK (2015)Germany Vet (1982)France (2005)Greece (2015)Spain (2013)

North AmericaCanada (2017)


Canada – Pet Retail Universe 2015

Province 2014 2015 %AB 249 231 ‐7%BC 343 307 ‐10%MB 58 57 ‐2%NB 38 38 ‐‐NL 17 17 ‐‐NS 55 44 ‐20%ON 835 815 ‐2%PE 7 7 ‐‐QC 425 393 ‐8%SK 35 35 ‐‐YT 1 2 +100%Grand Total 2,034 1,946 ‐4%

NS:44NB:38

BC:307

MB:57

AB:231

SK:35

ON:815QC:393

NL:17

YT:2


NS:44NB:38

BC:307

MB:57

AB:231

SK:35

ON:815QC:393

NL:17

YT:2

Canadian Pet Specialty Retail Universe 2016

1,946 Stores


Timeline for Canadian Pet Retail Panel Launch

Finalizing RecruitmentAnd Coding PhaseSeptember/October 2016

Pre-Launch Leader PanelMid-November 2016

Launch Full extrapolated PanelFebruary 2017

Last Call for Retailers to join the panelRetailer scan data is being coded based on GfK code plan

Data projected up to full Canadian Pet Retail UniverseSKU level data reporting

Aggregating raw data from 200+ shops Understanding segment, feature and brand shares


What’s happening in the US?


Dollar Sales grew from $6.2Bn in 2011 to $8Bn in 2016 +29%

Poundage Sales declined from 3.5Bn -4%in 2011 to 3.3Bn in 2016

Price for a pound of pet food +34% At Pet Specialty is $2.40

There are total of 559 pet +52% food brands in the market.

2,880 new items were launched in the past year. +12%

Pet Specialty Retail in Numbers2011/2016

Changing 2011/2016


Market Size Trend Dollar & Poundage Sales

YOY Growth% +10.4% +6.3% +2.8% +4.6% +4.2% YOY Growth% +2.0% ‐1.5% ‐2.4% ‐1.4% ‐1.7%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$6,207 $6,852 $7,282 $7,484 $7,832

3,463 3,533 3,479 3,395 3,349

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

POUNDAGE Sales in Millions DOLLAR Sales in Millions Growthbounced

back from -2.4% (2014) to -1.7%

(2016)

$7,976

2016*

Growthaccelerated

again +4.2% (2016) vs 2.8%

(2014)

*2016 - represents data for 12 months ending June 2016 (all other periods are based on calendar years)

2016*

3,320


Pet Specialty Retail Trends

Channel migration – growing importance of eCommerce

Toy/small breed dog food – sales growth (+73% since 2011)


501

263

73

165

573

322

77

174

Treats $123M+4.9%

Wet $47M+8.1%

Dry $505M +6.5%

Rapid growth of Small/Toy Dog Breed SegmentRapid increase in number of items result in rapid growth

20132014

2015

$600M$658M

$675M

587

313

85

189

$537M

MAT 2016*

2012

731

410

100

221

867

480

102

285

939

504

129

306

TOTAL ITEMS

DRY

WET

TREATS

$460M

RG 4598750 – ID 478889391: Dog Small/Toy Only, Total Pet Retail, *MAT 2016 through June

$389M

2011


Pet Specialty Retail Trends

Higher density products – freeze-dried & dehydrated petfoods

Channel migration – growing importance of eCommerce

Toy/small breed dog food – sales growth (+73.5% since 2011)


PETFOOD US Pet Retail 10 Quarter TrendGrowth Rate PY

© GfK 2016 - All rights reserved | 9/2016 Includes Liquids & Pill PocketsRG4609152 Channel Split + Growth MAT Tot PF(4)

Adj Sales USD

Adj Sales Units

Adj Sales LBs

Jan 14-Mar 14 Apr 14-Jun 14 Jul 14-Sep 14 Oct 14-Dec 14 Jan 15-Mar 15 Apr 15-Jun 15 Jul 15-Sep 15 Oct 15-Dec 15 Jan 16-Mar 16 Apr 16-Jun 16

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

AdjS

a le s

US

DG

row

thR

a te

PY

/Ad j

Sa l

e sU

n its

Gro

wth

Ra t

eP

Y/A

d jS

a le s

LBs

Gro

wth

Ra t

eP

Y

3.0

1.8

2.7

3.63.9

5.45.1

4.2

4.6

2.82.8

0.5

1.11.4

2.0

0.9

-1.4

-1.1

-3.1

-2.1

-3.0

-3.2

-1.9-1.5

-1.7

-0.4

-1.2

-2.1

-1.2

-2.2

Pet Specialty growth has slowed in recent quarters


Private Label and Value Natural brands outpace growth for all other brands. The price difference of 20% is partial driver of the overall declining dollar growth in Pet Superstores.

Value Natural & Private Label Growth are a partial driver of recent dollar growth slow-down (driven by large chains)

3.4%3.6%


$1.57$2.20

$6.59

$11.03

1.50

2.50

3.50

4.50

5.50

6.50

7.50

8.50

9.50

10.50

11.50

Jan11

Mar11

May11

Jul11

Sep11

Nov11

Jan12

Mar12

May12

Jul12

Sep12

Nov12

Jan13

Mar13

May13

Jul13

Sep13

Nov13

Jan14

Mar14

May14

Jul14

Sep14

Nov14

Jan15

Mar15

May15

Jul15

Sep15

Nov15

Jan16

Mar16

May16

Pric

e pe

r Pou

nd in

$

FULL MEAL TREAT

+67% since 2011

+40% since 2011

Average Price per Pound – Food & Treats2011 through June 2016

RG 4607227 – ID 479489951 | Total Pet Retail (Jan 2011 – Jun 2016)


Premiumization of Pet Food in Pet Specialty Retail USKey Categories - MAT June 2016

*Full meal only | natural, grain-free and freeze-dried/raw products driving dollar growth

Grain-Free$3.0Bn+20.2% YOY37% market share$3.07 per pound

Natural$5.6Bn

+7.6% YOY70% market share

$2.77 per pound


Natural Grain-Free TrendThe driver of Natural Growth – without grain-free, the natural category is declining

41%

54%





Natural$5.6Bn


$2.77 per pound

Limited Ingredients $683MM+12.5% YOY8.6% market share$2.58 per pound


10.8 11.4 13.0

14.1 8.7 4.0

28.3 7.6 13.6

13.8 12.3 10.6

13.3 22.9 25.9

11.9 11.3 12.5

$682 Million

Key Performance MetricsAnnual Sales & YOY Growth Trend by Segment

Segment Share % Year-over-Year Growth Trend % (last 3 years)

MAT Jun 16 2014 2015 MAT Jun 16

DryWet

Treats

6.6

4.4

82.5

4.4

1.9

Dog Dry makes up lion

share of all LID sales (growing consistently in lower teens)

Stronggrowth for Cat

Wet, albeit a small

segment Total Category

Growth$585.8MM $651.7MM $683.3MM


Limited Ingredient Diet (LID) Segment“Expansion”

Original LID concept New LID approach


Limited Ingredient Diet (LID) Segment“A human trend”

That’s it. Fruit Bars RXBAR

“All natural fruit bars made from 100% REAL FRUIT and only 2ingredients: Apples and Pineapples! Seriously, That's it!”

“You love us for what’s inside. So we decided to be upfront about it. First things first, our exclusive, powerful core ingredients: egg whites, fruits and nuts. Our 100% natural flavors. And our one-of-a-kind promise: No B.S. Loud and clear.”




Frozen$97MM+26.9% YOY1.2% market share$6.51 per pound


Natural$5.6Bn


$2.77 per pound



19.5 18.3 27.3 36.8 26.9+/- % PY

43.1 51.0 65.088.9 97.3

Key Performance MetricsAnnual Sales & YOY Growth Trend

20122013

2014

2015

MATJun 16

Monthly Year-over-Year Growth Trend %Annual $ Sales Trend in Million

Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16

0

10

20

30

40

50

+/-%

PY

32.8

39.6 38.9

35.3 34.5

39.4

33.5

38.0

29.6

23.9

26.123.9

20.2

14.512.9

Frozen accounts for 1.2% of all

sales


38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 640.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

$36.1M$43.1M

$51.0M

$65.0M

$88.9M

$97.3

Key Performance MetricsDistribution & Velocity Annual Trend

Velocityhas doubled

since 2011 and 36% since

2014

Storesselling frozenpet food nearly doubled from 38% to 63% of all stores (past

5 years)

2012 2013 2014 2015 MAT June162011

% of Stores Selling/Distribution

Sale

s pe

r Sho

p/M

onth

(Tho

usan

ds)




Frozen$97MM+26.9% YOY1.2% market share$6.51 per pound


Natural$5.6Bn


$2.77 per pound

Dehydrated*$20MM

+37.1% YOYNew Items: 20 in ’15 vs. 26 in ’14

$9.54 per pound


Freeze-Dried*$61MM

+45.5% YOYNew Items: 75 in ’15 vs. 37 in ’14

$32.39 per pound


2012 2013 2014 2015 MAT Jun 16

40.0 17.2 50.2 58.0 43.4+/- % PY

12.8

14.6

12.2

19.9

15.2

33.0

23.2

52.9

26.4

61.0

$27.4$32.1

$48.2

$76.1

$86.0

Key Performance Metrics – Raw AlternativeAnnual Sales & YOY Growth Trend

*100% Dehydrated includes 100% Dehydrated + Freeze-Dried Combination Full Meals.

Monthly Year-over-Year Growth Trend %Annual $ Sales Trend in Millions100%Dehy-drated

100%Freezedried

Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16

0

20

40

60

80

100

+/-%PY

68.8

69.6

60.3

64.7

55.6

72.2

60.4

54.2

51.3

39.2 37.8

50.1

30.3

28.7

25.6

51.0

72.0

70.0

63.7

61.357.2

38.5 40.0

41.650.4

34.6

42.7

27.4

19.0

13.4

Raw Alternative accounts for 1.1% of all

sales


10 20 30 40 50 60 70350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

$9.2M$14.6M

$19.9M

$33.0M

$52.9M $61.0M

$10.3M$12.8M

$12.2M

$15.2M

$23.2M

$26.4M

20112012

2013

2014

2015

MAT 2016

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

MAT 2016

Key Performance MetricsDistribution & Velocity Annual Trend

Whiledehydrated

foods have grown in distribution, freeze-

dried foods grew to more than double

the market size(greater dist. &

sales/store)

% of Stores Selling/Distribution

Sale

s pe

r Sho

p/M

onth

100%dehy-drated

100%Freezedried


Types of Raw AlternativeLots of different ways to explore ‘raw’

$69 Million Sales 357 items

(+32% since 2014) 63% distribution $1,024 per shop/month $19 per pound


(+62% since 2014) 75% distribution $1,427 per shop/month $3 per pound


(+230% since 2014) 54% distribution $242 per shop/month $33 per pound


Premium Dry Trend – Dog & Cat Full MealAnnual $ Sales by Preservation Type in Million

PETFOOD US Pet Retail MAT 2011 - 2016FULL MEAL DRY Premium Dry Petfoods Trend $ in MM

© GfK 2016 - All rights reserved | 8/2016PRJ 114710 - RG 4543494 - RP 28149934 - ID 473112645

PART DEHYDR.

DEHYDR+FRZDRIED

100% DEHYDR.

PART FRZDRIED

100% FRZDRIED

MAT 2012 MAT 2013 MAT 2014 MAT 2015 MAT 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

$in

MM

12.5

42.9

9.1

16.3

54.4

8.8

25.6

60.3

10.1

41.9

80.9

14.8

61.3

143.2

20.46.25.4

67.982.6

99.1

142.1

236.4 Rapid Growth +66%


Types of Mixers & Meal Enhancers


Liquid $1.2MM

Wet $7.2MM

Preserved $19.2MM

RG 4510350 – ID 471852884: Preserved – Freeze-Dried/Dehydrated, Wet – wet food topper (chunky/stew-like), Liquid – Soups, Purees

2013

2014

2015

164 Total Items

121 Dog

43 Cat

$6.4MM

$21.2MM

$27.8MM

102

83

19

66

56

10

$3.5MM

130

105

25

MAT2016

Meal Enhancers Yearly GrowthYearly dollar sales have grown rapidly, driven by total items nearly tripling since 2013.


Dueling Trends

PremiumValue

Price per pound increased by 12% for Treats and 9% for Full

Meal since January 2015.

Premium natural products vs. with ‘value natural’ offerings that are usually about 20% cheaper


Industry Buzzwords

Limited Ingredient claim prominent on packaging

Sustainability and Humane is a growing trend for pet food manufacturing

Product offering for Small/Toy Breed dogs is growing

Premiumization continues strong


YOU ARE INVITED!

WHAT: Live Webinar -- GfK pet food experts will be sharing trends and insights from our brand new Canadian Pet Specialty Point-of-Sale tracking database

WHENMid-November 2016

HOW TO JOINLeave your business card to be invited or email us at [email protected] to get on the invitation list


Maria LangeGfK POS TrackingBusiness Group Director – [email protected]

@malangpet

THANK YOU!

QUESTIONS?

Documents

Pet Specialty Market Overview - PIJAC Canada · 2017-07-07 · © GfK September 27, 2016| PIJAC 1 Pet Specialty Market Overview Trends and Insights Presented by Maria Lange | PIJAC