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Third World Quarterly, Vol 18, No 1, pp 175± 181, 1997

Perspectives on the Horn of Africa’ scon¯ ict: a cure to prevention of thecollapse of the regional countries inthe 21st century?

Kassu Gebremariam

The Cost of Dictatorship: The Somali Experienceby Jama Mohamed Ghalib

New York: Lillian Barber Press, 1995.

Imagining Ethiopia: Struggles for History and Identity in the Horn ofAfricaby John Sorenson

New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 1993.

War of Visions: Con¯ ict Identities in the Sudanby Francis M DengWashington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1995.

Ethnicity and Con¯ ict in the Horn of Africaby John Markakis & Katsuyoshi Fukui (eds)

London: James Currey, 1994.

The Horn of Africa: State Politics and International Relationsby Peter Woodward

London: Tauris Academic Studies, 1996

In the past four decades, the Horn of Africa region, which in the main embraces

Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan, has been troubled by various forms of wars,

disintegration of states, environmental degradation, drought and famine, and

population explosion. The disintegration of Ethiopia and Somalia brought about

the secession of Eritrea from Ethiopia and Northern Somalia from Somalia, and

caused southern Somalia’ s descent into a condition of anarchy. Such develop-

ments ran contrary to the optimism both popular and academic assessments

shared during the early 1960s.

At the time, the political elites of Somalia and Sudan perceived their roles ascreating political systems including accountability of governments, popular

Kassu Gebremariam is at the York Centre for International and Security Studies, York University, 4700 Keele

Street, North York, Ontario, Canada.

0143-6597/97/010175-07 $7.00 Ó 1997 Third World Quarterly 175

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FEATURE REVIEW

participation and developed bureaucracy. In Ethiopia, Emperor Haile Selassie’ sintroduction of a parliament, the reunification with Eritrea under the 1952Ethio-Eritrean Federal Act and the promulgation of the 1955 constitution, allinspired a widespread optimism in that country’ s capacity to build a modernstate.

Almost all writers of the day considered Somalia as most promising in itspotential to construct a nation state. The ethnic homogeneity of Mogadishu, tiedby a common ancestor, language, religion, and a pan-Somali ideal was con-sidered an asset against internal disunity and costly civil wars. However,contrary to rosy scenarios, the capability of Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan tocentralise power and settle con¯ ict on a regular basis were stalled in themid-1960s. Analysis of the con¯ icts was characterised by diversity of perspec-tives. Throughout the 1960s and late 1970s, con¯ icts in both Ethiopia and Sudanwere explained in terms of ethnic, religious and racial diversity, while interstatewars between Ethiopia and the former Somalia were described with reference tothe principle of self-determination.

Nonetheless, the retreat from the objective of centralisation of the states as aresult of escalation of domestic con¯ icts in Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan in themid-1980s forced scholars to shift their paradigm to the state. In an earlier work,John Markakis wrote a pioneering comparative study of the three countries,National and Class Con¯ ict in the Horn of Africa, which is fundamental to thepresent discussion. The ® ve books listed above, one of which is co-edited byMarkakis, reveal serious problems that confront the Horn of Africa region todayand imply that, unless serious remedial measures are taken, we may have a risein the phenomenon of the collapse of states in this region. In order to appreciatewhether the critical perspectives the authors above bring can offer a glimmer ofhope against regional disintegration, I have divided this review into two distinctparts. The ® rst summarises the books and highlights their strengths and limita-tions. The second critically analyses the applicability of these works in address-ing the crises of the Horn in the 21st century, in the broader context of theproblems and opportunities posed by the post-cold war world order.

The works

Jama Mohamed Ghalib, in The Cost of Dictatorship, chronicles the events thatunderlay and led to the death of the Somali state. It is an eye-witness observationof Somalia’ s history from the late colonial period through independence to thepresent. Ghalib allocates the blame for the dissolution of Somalia largely on theabsolute power of President Mohammed Siyaad Barre. This book provides aninsider’ s account and shows how the whimsical decisions of the Presidentresulted in the demise of Somalia. The work is written from a personalistperspective in a sensationalist, atheoretical, journalistic style. By omitting toconsider the role of the state in relation to how the origin of that country shapedpost-colonial institutional and political developments, the author leaves a littleroom for what could have been a more substantive contribution to the debateabout the future of Somali society.

Sorenson’ s book, Imagining Ethiopia, is about the creation of images, theconstruction of histories and the formation of identities in the Horn of Africa,focusing on Ethiopia and Eritrea. He argues that the rise of counter-hegemonic

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THE HORN OF AFRICA’ S CONFLICT

identities such as those of the Eritreans and the Oromo people, as the struggle

for the independence of Eritrea demonstrated, is bound eventually to contribute

to the collapse of Ethiopia. According to Sorenson, the country’ s claim to being

an ancient one is a hegemonic vision concocted by Ethiopian nationalists andHaile Selassie, the last Ethiopian monarch. Otherwise, such claims are ® ctitious.

Western discourse on Ethiopia’ s image is contradictory and fallacious. The

contents of W estern discourse range from glori® cation to humiliation depending

on the ideological orientation of the government in power and its willingness to

promote the agenda of international capital.Sorenson’ s notion of hegemony understood as the construction of consensus

between dominant social forces at the domestic/international levels is insightful.

He presents comprehensive sets of data and discussions on the negative conse-

quences of repressing group identities, as experienced in terms of the territorial

integrity of the country. Yet a plethora of major de® ciencies and importantomissions tend to outweigh the work’ s strengths. Here are a few examples. For

a book that purports to deal with different images of Ethiopia, it is surprising to

see no discussion of different modes of legitimacy, such as tradition, charismatic

authority and the decline in these forms of authority, and such decline evokes

crises. Citizens, especially marginalised groups, question governments’ right togovern in the face of the development of antagonism between traditional and

modernist social forces, the growth of the division of labour, urbanisation and

economic development.

Deng’ s book, War of Visions: Con¯ ict Identities in the Sudan, argues that the

core of the Sudanese con¯ ict is not so much what groups perceive themselvesto be, but the projection of those self-perceptions by the ruling elite to the

collective framework of the state, which thereby becomes inherently discrimina-

tory. What therefore is contested in the Sudanese case is the de® nition of the

country as Arab, African, Islamic or secular, in light of the implications for its

political, economic, social and cultural life. Deng argues that slavery, thepolicies of the colonial administration of Britain, the christianisation of the south

vis-aÁ -vis a predominantly Muslim north, and the suppression of pan-southern

identity by successive northern governments are behind the north±south con¯ ict

in Sudan.

The author describes three options for that countryÐ construction of a nationalframework akin to the 1972 Addis Ababa Agreement, federal or confederal

unity, and secession. The book provides a good balance of historical re¯ ection

and case study analysis. Deng’ s options for Sudan are tempered by realism. On

the one hand, he recognises the bene® ts to be drawn out of southern Sudanese

unity with the northern part of the country at large; on the other hand, he is notprepared to accept the pessimistic view that southerners can accomplish little

without the help of the north.

By contrast, the Fukui±Markakis work is a collection of 11 essays, written by

specialists from the Horn of Africa itself and from Japan, the USA and the UK.

The work covers a broad spectrum of recent experiences by a variety of groupsin different parts of the region. Several of the contributors in the ® rst part of the

book avoid a discussion of the role of the state arguing that the term ` ethnic

group’ is a social construct and the reasons for its contemporary prominence

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FEATURE REVIEW

must be sought in the situation that produced it. The role of the state, and the

state as the arena of con¯ ict and a major contestant, is the theme of Markakis’ s

piece, following his earlier work.

Markakis suggests that it is the state which provided the source of con¯ ict in

the Horn of African countries even though its origin is tied to the economic and

social disparities brought about by colonial powers. The state is responsible for

the outbreak of con¯ icts in two major ways: (1) competition for resources in

conditions of great scarcity and (2) control of the allocation of resources. Access

to state power has never been equally available to all people of the Horn. Those

who control the state have used its power to defend their own privileged class

position. This meant that dissident groups’ failure to gain power brought about

armed rebellions in search of autonomy or independence. Thus, Markakis

argues, the state is the root cause of the con¯ ict in the Horn, ` whether it is fought

in the name of a nation, region, religion, ethnicity or clanship’ .

This book, more than any of the others under review, makes a major

contribution to a possible settlement of the protracted con¯ icts in the Horn of

Africa region. The work ably sums up the debates on either the sources or

conditions for termination of con¯ icts around two major competing themes: (1)

the desirability and feasibility of multi-ethnic states versus (2) an ethnically

homogeneous state. Such a delineation on its own constitutes a major contribu-

tion to the debate over the future of the Horn and the broader question of which

direction the regional countries will take in the next millennium. Yet in contrast

to the work of the other contributors, Markakis’ discussion of the role of the

state in the outbreak of con¯ icts, and his comprehensive accounts of Ethiopia’ s,

Somalia’ s and Sudan’ s con¯ icts, is easily seen as a marked departure from the

usual tendencies of writers on the Horn of Africa’ s problems. Other works do

not give primacy to the role of the state as they lack analytical variables that

distinguish the state’ s domain from society.

In The Horn of Africa: State Politics and International Relations, Woodward

argues that regional and wider international rivalries have played major roles in

causing state collapse, leading to intensi® cation of the crises of the Horn of

Africa countries. His work also shows that domestic sociopolitical factors have

affected the processes of decay in Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan. Majoritarian

liberal democracy failed in Somalia and Sudan because of fragmentation of the

societies and lack of viable constitutions. In Ethiopia’ s case, successive regimes

were repressive. There is little hope that Ethiopia and Sudan will overcome the

predicaments of statelessness. Their governments do not allow space for the

emergence of civil society. Thus he argues that what is required is involvement

of the international community. Such an involvement might well prevent if not

reverse existing trends.

Woodward’ s work demonstrates a highly sophisticated understanding of the

role of regional and international factors on either outbreaks or termination of

con¯ icts. We learn from him how the incapability of the regional countries to

cope with the explosive effects of political, social and physical crises tends to

weaken these states’ ability to maintain themselves over time. He also assigns a

pivotal role to the construction of civil society in the likelihood of resolution of

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THE HORN OF AFRICA’ S CONFLICT

the countries’ con¯ icts and rise of the authority of the states, a variable omittedby all other analysts under review.

Why new perspectives are needed

The works under review show that the failure of the regional countries to copewith the severe effects of their political and economic crises has fostered

pessimism among analysts, international aid donors and development experts.The human tragedy in the region appears unending. There is a practical urgencyto focus on settlement of the countries’ con¯ icts and a need to work on

establishing the requirements for their self-preservation and resolution of theircrises through the construction of viable states. Thus, the question remains: whatcan be done to rescue regional states in the 21st century?

In evaluating the appropriateness of alternative approaches to the resolution of

the Horn of Africa’ s problems, what must be brought into question ® rst is nottheir search for solutions, but their overall inability to settle con¯ icts. Whatsurfaces as a fundamental ¯ aw is the writers’ failure to accord centrality to thecommon features of state organisation which Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan share

with one another. There is a lack of assessment of the regional countries’organisational attributes in the course of the pursuit of their goals in the interstatecontext. In this sense all the works reviewed remain reductionist and abstract.Although Markakis’ s framework fares better compared to the others, his concep-

tion of the state tends to work against the settlement of con¯ ict on a regularbasis, since he fails to recognise the independent role of the state.

Moreover, the inadequacies of Markakis’ and other models are compoundedowing to their failure to assign a pivotal role to states’ incapacity to maintain

political legitimacy. Such a shortcoming obscures the political function of thestate in relation to suprasectional loyalties of citizens and preservation ofterritorial integrity. The con¯ ict-management mechanisms which writers such asFrancis Deng and proponents of the creation of an ethnically homogeneous

country suggest are impaired because of their disregard of assigning a criticalrole to the commitment of political forces to orderly political successions. Theirfailure to situate the prospects for political institutionalisation in relation to theexistence of a society-wide feeling of communality, and their failure to present

a close study of the common and unique circumstances in which Ethiopia,Somalia and Sudan originated and developed, are serious shortcomings.

Although all writers invariably point to the signi® cance of the countries’

origins, their preoccupation is with the economic and social disparities broughtabout by the colonial powers. Such an enterprise assigns a subsidiary role topolitical development. The functionality of the different con¯ ict resolutionmechanisms, such as the creation of an ethnically homogeneous country, a

secular state, a multi-ethnic and multiracial country, implementation of thepolicies of federal or confederal unity, and regional autonomy cannot bedetermined otherwise.

The idealisation of creating an ethnically homogeneous state, for instance, as

the most reliable mechanism for con¯ ict settlements within the Horn of Africaproved to be a ¯ awed vision in the context of Somalia. In both Ethiopia andSudan, the implementation of federalism between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the

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FEATURE REVIEW

grant of regional autonomy to southern Sudan during the days of Colonel Ja’ afar

Numeiri failed to provide safeguards against outbreaks of con¯ icts. In addition,

all writers fail to examine the relationship between state organisations and the

society they regulate. This weakens their ability to account for the unendingcharacter of con¯ ict in the region. Moreover, an autonomous state personnel

with the ability to respond to any crisis with policy measures that can go as far

as undermining the vested interests of the political elite is clearly needed to

tackle the succession crisis and unity problems.

In addition there is a lack of systematic discussion among these authors abouthow the changing structures of the world order have impinged on the Horn since

colonial days, with particular reference to the unique features of the post-cold

war world order. This seriously detracts from their adequacy as predictors for

behaviour in the 21st century. Even as the work of Peter Woodward addresses

the centrality of regional and international developments on both the escalationand resolution of the Horn’ s con¯ icts, his account of the role of the world order

remains incomplete. He nowhere deals with how the changing structures of the

world order have impinged on the Horn of Africa states since colonial times. The

international system’ s impact on both the formation and preservation of

Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan fell into three distinct phases: (1) late 19th-centurycolonialism (1885/1889±1960); the Cold War/independence period (1960±1989);

and (3) the role of multilateral forces under the United Nations in Somalia (1992

to March 1995).

In the same way, the absence of discussions of the distinctive aspects of the

post-Cold War, characterised by the notion of universalisation of the state,regionalisation and the multilateral forces’ failure in Somalia (set for active

international intervention) is the common de® ciency of these works. In the new

international setting peripheral states are transformed into adjusting their national

economic practices and policies to the perceived ` exigencies’ of the global

economy, thus weakening the role of regional states in the development of theirnational economies. The marginalisation of the Horn in the global economy is

further shown by regionalisation. The emergence of the European Community,

an East-Asian sphere centred on Japan, and a North-American sphere centred on

the USA as political±economic frameworks for capital accumulation limit the

attractiveness of the Horn of Africa countries for international capital.What further reduces Ethiopia’ s and Sudan’ s capacity to attract international

capital and institute constitutional order is the consolidation of patrimonial

dictatorships in both countries. Sudan’ s Islamic fundamentalist government’ s

resort to genocide to solve the con¯ ict with the south and the Ethiopian

leadership’ s unwillingness to negotiate a mutually acceptable compromise withthe opposition, have hardened the resolve of other groups; and they have chosen

armed rebellion. The ¯ ight of the majority of Somalia’ s trained personnelÐ

administrators, accountants and other classes of professionalsÐ dampens oppor-

tunities for restoration of the country as we knew it in the past. In all instances

the intensi® cation of social and physical crises, along with the inert traits of theirdominant economies, are likely to reduce politics to a zero-sum game, as there

are few resources to be made available for solving the real problems.

The prospect that the major international powers will prevent disintegration of

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Islam and Christian-Muslim Relations

EDITORSJohn L. Esposito and Jù rgen S. Nielsen

Islam and Christian Muslim Relations (ICMR) was launched in June 1990

and has been hailed by scholars of Islam, Christianity and religion in general,

as well as by social scientists, educationists, community and religious leaders.

ICMR provides a forum for all those who wish to enhance their critical

appreciation of the two religious traditions on historical, empirical, ideological

and theoretical issues. Since its new partnership with the Center for Muslim-

Christian Understanding at Georgetown University, Washington DC

commenced in 1996, the journal has broadened its scope to encompass issues

concerning Christian-Muslim relations in politics and international affairs.

Volume 8, 1997, 3 issues. ISSN 0959-6410.

Carfax Publishing Company

PO Box 25 · Abingdon · Oxfordshire OX14 3UE · UK

Tel: +44 (0)1235 521154 · Fax: +44 (0)1235 401550

E-mail: sales@carfax.co.uk · WWW: http://www.carfax.co.uk

THE HORN OF AFRICA’ S CONFLICT

the Horn of Africa’ s states is further limited by the negative lesson of the Somali

experience. The failure of the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Somalia

to rebuild a new state in the war-ravaged country constitutes a watershed in the

hopelessness of multilateral intervention in the event of collapse of any one ofthe regional countries. A mood of ` Somalia syndrome’ has justi® ed international

inaction.

We need to adopt creative policy responses which may range from ® rst-track

diplomacy, middle-level and grassroot mediation, and long-term civic education.

But the viability of such remedial measures is ruled out by the absence of thepolitics of negotiation and compromise. Rather, the best hope for the prevention

of dissolution of the countries in the immediate future rests on the adoption of

an alternative approach characterised by country-speci® c study that would entail

a mechanism for anticipatory and preventative action directed against domestic

con¯ ict. The protracted con¯ icts of the Horn of Africa region must be investi-gated in terms of state, society and the world order.

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