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the consulting company of DIW Berlin
Perspectives and challenges of the development
of the service sector in Kazakhstan
Dr. Marco Artavia
DIW ECON GmbH
Astana, 13 March 2015
International Conference: “Green Economy and Top 30 Strategy
of Kazakhstan – Economic Challenges Ahead”
the consulting company of DIW Berlin
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Introduction
Kazakhstan’s economy depends strongly on the developments in
the oil sector.
Oil exports are close to 30% as share of GDP.
Oil exports are close to 60% as share from total exports.
Current low oil prices put pressure on Kazakhstan’s economy.
Diversification of the economy is a key target of the Top-30
Concept.
Purpose of the presentation
Discuss the main developments towards 2050
Discuss the role of the service sector for GDP and GHG
emissions
Identify the main challenges of the service sector towards its
expansion and modernisation
the consulting company of DIW Berlin
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CGE (macroeconomic) model for Kazakhstan
Scenarios
Business-as-usual (BAU)
Continuation of present developments (incl. small increases in
energy efficiency) without significant reforms (i.e. without
implementation of the GEC, ETS, etc.)!
GREEN
Policies of the GEC including the restructuring of the power sector
and increasing energy efficiency through investments in modern
production technology and infrastructure in selected sectors
3
the consulting company of DIW Berlin
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-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
(in %
)
Main develpments towards 2050 (i)
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Projected real GDP growth rate
Strong productivity growth
Oil peak
Slower growth in oil extraction
Diversification
With the decrease
of oil extraction
rates diversification
of the economy is
need
IMF projection
Increase of demand for land transport
the consulting company of DIW Berlin
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-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
Services
Transport
Utilities
Manufacturing
Mining
Agriculture
Avg. Gr.: 4.6% p.a.
Real GVA development (in bln KZT)
Avg. Gr.: 5.8% p.a.
Avg. Gr.: 4.3% p.a.
Avg. Gr.: 1.7% p.a.
Services, transport, and
Industry present the
strongest growth rates
Main develpments towards 2050 (ii)
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Services
Transport
Utilities
Manufacturing
Mining
Agriculture
Real GVA development (shares)
Services play a key
and growing role in
the economy
Main develpments towards 2050 (iii)
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7
srv 2011
srv 2050
tra 2011
tra 2050
srv 2030
tra 2030
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Shar
e in
em
issi
on
s
Share in GDP
Transport: • moderate contribution to
GDP growth • large contribution to GHG
emissions growthServices: • large contribution to GDP
growth • very small contribution to
GHG emissions growth
Services play a key role in:
the reduction of EMISSION INTENSITY (i)
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0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
agriculture mining manufacturing utilities transport services households
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
in G
g C
O2
eq
, 20
11
Liquid fuel combustion Solid fuel combustion Gaseous fuel combustion Fugitive and process emissions
The sector of theeconomy with thelowest GHG emissions
Services play a key role in:
the reduction of EMISSION INTENSITY (ii)
GHG emissions in million tonnes CO2 eq. in 2011
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Challenges of the service sector (i)
0,00
20,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
100,00
120,00
140,00
160,00
180,00
Gro
ss o
utp
ut
of
serv
ices
(in
co
nsta
nt
1995 U
SD
per
1000 e
mp
loyed
p
ers
on
s)
Labor productivity in the service sectorof the top 20 world performers vs. Kazakhstan in 2009
Source: WEF (2013-2014) and The Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Own calculations.
According to the WEF (2013-2014), all top 20 world performers in terms of labor productivity in services belong to the group of countries, which are on the highest stage of development – “Innovation-driven economies”. World Economic Forum (WEF). The Global Competitiveness Report 2013–2014: Full Data Edition. Geneva.
Strong efforts
required in the
improvement of
labour productivity
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R&D expenditure(2011)
Ease of doingbusiness index
(2014)
Public spending oneducation, total
(2010)
Health expenditure,total (2012)
ICT DevelopmentIndex (2013)
Chile
Czech Republic
Hungary
Kazakhstan
Poland
Slovenia
World Bank rank
(2014): 77 of 189
economies
Sources: The World Bank – World development indicators; International Telecommunication Union – Measuring the Information Society Report 2014
Urgent need for
improving business
environment
Challenges of the service sector (ii)
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Cost to export
(2014)
Cost to import
(2014)
Documents to
export (2014)
Documents to
import (2014)
Time to export
(2014)
Time to import
(2014) Chile
Czech Republic
Hungary
Kazakhstan
Poland
Slovenia
Sources: The World Bank – World development indicators
Strong efforts required in
improving institutions
regulating trade
Challenges of the service sector (iii)
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The voice of the business community
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Corruption
Access to financing
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Conclusions
With the decrease of oil extraction rates diversification of the
economy is need.
Services play a key role in
Economic growth
Reduction of GHG emission intensity
Howerver urgent need to improve the business environment
Increase labour PRODUCTIVITY
Increase expenditure in EDUCATION, R&D, and HEALTH
Improve institutions for TRADE
Reduce CORRUPTION
Improve access to FINANCING
13
the consulting company of DIW Berlin
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Contact
Dr. Marco Artavia
Consultant
DIW Econ GmbH Mohrenstraße 58
10117 Berlin Germany
Phone +49.30.20 60 972 25
Fax +49.30.20 60 972 99
E-mail: [email protected]
URL: www.diw-econ.com
Head office: Berlin, Germany, Reg.-No.: HRB 108699 B, Local court: Charlottenburg
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Thank you for your attention!
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