Perspective National WEF Security Analysis 2050: Scenario Based Nexus Modeling

Contribution to Ethiopia 2050 Vision: Grand Challenges and Opportunities

Semu Moges* and Megersa Tesfaye**

*Consultant and Adj. professor at University of Connecticut, semu.moges@uconn.edu, semu.moges.2000@gmail.com

**Addis Ababa University

1. Ethiopian Grand Challenges

2. WEF Questions?

Can Ethiopia achieve WEF security by 2030 and 2050?

What would be the consequence on the land and water resources bases

What does It take for Ethiopia, to develop and sustain WEF security without significantly affecting the resources base (Sustainable Scenario)?

3. Selected Scenarios

Scen1BAUScen – Business as Usual Scenario

Scen2RV2030Scen -Revised Middle

Scen3AGriScen –Agricultural as Usual Scenario

• When per capita WEF consumptions continue as in the past but socio-economic drivers continue to grow

Revised Middle Income Country by 2030

• Achieving 100% Food, Water and Energy access

• Middle income per capita access

Agricultural Intensification Scenario

• Achieving 100% Water and Energy Access,

• Middle income per capita access

• Doubling Agricultural Productivity (Both Rainfed and Irrigation)

4. Drivers

Year Population Growth rate (%)

Total Population (%)

Urban. Rate (%)

Total Urban Population (%)

Total Rural population (%)

2014 2.6 97.4

2015 2.6 99.8 19.4 80.52015 2.6 99.8 19.4 80.5

2030 2.03 139.6 4.1 32.5 102.1

2050 1.30 190.8 3.02 74.5 116.3

5. Resources - Water

600

700

800

900

1000

Wat

er

Sou

rce

s (B

CM

)

Precipitation

Green Water

Blue Water1 (Runoff)

Blue Water2 (GW)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Precipitation Green Water Blue Water1 (Runoff)

Blue Water2 (GW)

Wat

er

Sou

rce

s (B

CM

)

Blue Water2 (GW)

5. Resources- Land

Lan-Use type Area (mil. ha)

Forests 12.50 (12.5%)

Permanent meadows and pastures

19.96 (19.96%)pastures

Crop lands 16.30 (16.30%)

Other lands(includes Urban areas , Built up areas, and barren lands)

51.25 (51.24%)

Total land 100 (100 %)

5. Resources - Power Capacity

Power Generating Plant Maximum Potential

Hydropower 45GW

Geothermal 10GW

Wind 10,000GW

Solar 5.5kw/m2/day

Wood (Biomass) 1,120 million tone/year

waste 20 million tone/year

6. Method: CLEWS WEF Nexus Modeling

7. Future Total Demand: Water

0

10

20

30

40

50

Base Year 2030 2050

Wat

er

De

man

d (

BC

M)

Year

Residential water Industrial water

Commercial water Agricultural water

40

60

Wat

er

De

man

d

(BC

M)

BAU Scenario

0

20

Base year 2030 2050

Wat

er

De

man

d

(BC

M)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Base Year 2030 2050

Wat

er

De

man

d

(BC

M)

RV2030 Scenario

Agri Scenario

7. Future Total Demand: Food Demand

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050

MT

Year

Food Demand [Million Tones (MT]-BAU Scenario

Food Demand[MT] - RV2030 & Agri Scenarios

Teff Maize Sorgume Wheate Pulses Oil Seeds Vegitables Root Crops Frui Crops

Coffee Suger Cane Barly Rice Oats Millet Hops Chat

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050

MT

Teff Maize Sorgume Wheate Pulses Oil SeedsVegitables Root Crops Frui Crops Coffee Suger Cane BarlyRice Oats Millet Hops Chat

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

20

31

20

32

20

33

20

34

20

35

20

36

20

37

20

38

20

39

20

40

20

41

20

42

20

43

20

44

20

45

20

46

20

47

20

48

20

49

20

50

Pow

er

Gen

era

tion

[GW

h]

BAU Scenario

7. Future Total Demand: Energy

600000

RV2030 & Agri Scenarios

Biomass Diesel Geothermal Hydro

Solar Waste Wind

0

150000

300000

450000

Po

we

r[G

Wh

] Solar Waste Wind

-Ethiopia has adequate renewable energy resources to develop and satisfy the growing demand until 2050. -The energy mix is dominated by hydropower and shifts to solar energy after 2040.

8.1 Key Features: Cost of Energy Generation

200

250

300

350

400

Energy generation (Infrastructure + generation + distribution)

2030 2040 2050

BAU Scenario Capital Investment [Bill. US $]

28 26 99

RV2030 Scenario Capital Investment [Bill. US $]

82 197 335

Agri Scenario Capital Investment [Bill. US $]

82 197 335

0

50

100

150

200distribution) requires huge capital

8.1. Key Features: Energy Export

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050

Ele

ctrici

ty[G

Wh]

BAU Scenario

2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050

Ele

ctrici

ty[G

Wh]

RV2030 and Agri Scenario

Under RV2030 and Agri Scenario, Ethiopia can’t afford to export hydropower Energy after 2026

8.2. Key Features: Decling Crop Land

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

Lan

d-U

se[1

000H

a] BAU Scenario

Forrests Cropland Permanent Pastures and meadows Other land

40000

60000

80000

100000use

[100

0H

a]

RV2030 Scenario

RV2030 Scenario – will continue to induce conflict with pastoralists and forest Ecosystem

Agri Scenario -Doubling of

0

20000

40000

Lan

d-u

se[1

00

0H

a]

Forrests Cropland Permanent Pastures and meadows Other land

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

Lan

d-U

se[1

000H

a]

Agri Scenario

Forrests Cropland Permanent Pastures and meadows Other land

Doubling of agricultural productivity will guarantee food security as well as reduces burden on both the pastoral and forest resources

8.2. Key Features: Crop Imports

0

5

10

15

20

Cro

p Im

po

rt [

MT]

BAU Scenario [MT]

25

35

imp

ort

[M

T]

RV2030 Scenario [MT]

Both land expansion and doubling of Crop productivity doesn’t eliminate crop import and

-5

5

15

25

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

20

42

20

44

20

46

20

48

20

50

Cro

p im

po

rt [

02468

10

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

20

42

20

44

20

46

20

48

20

50

Cro

p im

po

rts

[MT]

Agri Scenario [MT]

Barly Other carops Maize Wheate Vegitables

crop import and guarantee food self sufficiency. AgriScenario significantly reduces crop import from 30 MT to 6 MT by 2050.

9. Summary• Ethiopia has adequate renewable water & energy resources to

develop and satisfy the growing demand until 2050– The energy mix is dominated by hydropower and shifts to solar energy

after 2040. – Energy generation requires significant capital investment

• Ethiopia has limited land resources for extensive agriculture development (land expansion based agriculture)

• Ethiopia can only satisfy its food security by 2030 & beyond changing the current mode of production and productivity– Doubling of agricultural productivity guarantee food security as well as

reduces burden on both the pastoral and forest resources– Maize crop is found to be dominant economic crop to grow in Ethiopia– Continuing with Extensive agriculture will significantly conflict to the

least, with pastoral and forest Ecosystems

• Ethiopia requires significantly Large investment to achieve WEF security.

10. Policy Recommendation– Mobilizing A Marshal Scale Investment and Youth

power

• Build Institutions and human resources capacity building

• Expand Energy Infrastructure development

• Focus Investing in both Rainfed and Irrigation Agriculture inputs and technologies to double Agricultural Productivityinputs and technologies to double Agricultural Productivity

• Implementing Nexus approach in Planning, Designing and Management of WEF to reduce costs and improve sustainability

– Creating Enabling Environment – Peace and investment guarantee and protection

– Enabling knowledge based private public partnership (PPP)