Permafrostovervåkning og klimaendringer på SvalbardKetil Isaksen

FROSTdagen 2018 10. september 2018, NGI, Oslo

2/11

Janssonhaugen, Svalbard

May 1998

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Janssonhaugen,

Svalbard

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Janssonhaugen

Photo: Ketil Isaksen

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

SettingJanssonhaugen, Adventdalen

13.09.2018 Bunntekst5

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Early temperature profile in PACEJanssonhaugen, 9 May 1999

6

Isaksen et al. 2000

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Time series in the zone of annual temperature variationsJanssonhaugen, Svalbard

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Janssonhaugen, Svalbard

0m

20m

80m

100m

40m

60m

-7,0° -6,0° -5,0° -4,0° -3,0° -2,0°

Janssonhaugen, SvalbardMean annual ground temperature 1999-2016

Long-term temperature changesJanssonhaugen, Svalbard

10

+0.7°C/decade

+1.3°C/decade

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Active-layer thicknessMaximum depth of the 0°C isotherm, Janssonhaugen

11

16cm / decade

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Contributions and development

12

· Constitute the backbone of national and international

monitoring networks

· Official weather stations with multiple sensors and new

measurement programs co-located with PACE boreholes

· Serve as validation stations for local, regional and

hemispheric permafrost modelling studies

· Key sites in international assessments

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Key sites in international assessments

13

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Contributions and development

14

· Constitute the backbone of national and international

monitoring networks

· Official weather stations with multiple sensors and new

measurement programs co-located with PACE boreholes.

· Serve as validation stations for local, regional and

hemispheric permafrost modelling studies

· Key sites in international assessments

· Operational permafrost monitoring provide real-time data

and linked to official weather stations. Data transfer and

storage takes place through national operational systems

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Operational permafrost monitoringJanssonhaugen 0-isotherm depth, active layer today

15

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Contributions and development

16

· Constitute the backbone of national and international

monitoring networks

· Official weather stations with multiple sensors and new

measurement programs co-located with PACE boreholes.

· Serve as validation stations for local, regional and

hemispheric permafrost modelling studies

· Key sites in international assessments

· Operational permafrost monitoring provide real-time data

and linked to official weather stations. Data transfer and

storage takes place through national operational systems

· Part of the National Meteorological Infrastructure that

ensures long-term and stable operations and service

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Existing weather stations on Svalbard

17

Stations operated

by MET Norway

Stations operated

by cooperating

institutions

Stations operated

by UNIS

Meteorologisk institutt

Temperature changes

Foto: Ketil Isaksen

Meteorologisk institutt

Spatial pattern of Arctic warming Air temperature anomalies during 2001-2016 (with respect to the 1971-2000 mean)

19NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division

Meteorologisk institutt

Foto: Brage B. Hansen

Temperature development in Ny-Ålesund

Meteorologisk institutt

Future temperatureLongyearbyen, winter

21

12 simulations (Arctic CORDEX)

0-100 percentile + 10-90 percentile and median (50-percentile)

Drivers of recent warming on Svalbard

Sea ice decline

Higher sea surface temperature

Global warming

Meteorologisk institutt23Longyearbyen - January 13th 2018

Precipitation changes

Foto: Ketil Isaksen

Meteorologisk institutt24

Winter rain13 Januar 2018

Meteorologisk institutt

More rain, less snowfall

ANNUAL SNOW AMOUNT AS FRACTION OF TOTAL ANNUAL PRECIPITATION

Meteorologisk institutt

30. juni 2016

Several landslides and avalanches during

2016 on Spitsbergen - realted to heavy precipitation, but what about the influence of the record high thaw

depth?

26

Steintippdalen, 13.07.2016

Larsbreen, 28.07.2016

Foto: John Christian Nygaard

Carolinedalen, 12.08.2016Longyeardalen, 15.10.2016

Meteorologisk institutt

Maximum 1-day precipitation

27

Longyearbyen, summer (JJA) and autumn (SON)

July 11, 1972

August 5, 1981

Past and future precipitationLongyearbyen, winter

28

Isaksen m.fl. 2017

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Arctic warming

· Temperaturserier for Arktis fra SWIPA

29GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature, Base period 1971-2000; GISTEMP, NASA; Hansen et al. 2010 Photo: Ketil Isaksen

Increasing concentrations

of greenhouse gases in

the atmosphere are the

primary underlying cause:

the heat trapped by

greenhouse gases triggers

a cascade of feedbacks

that collectively amplify

Arctic warming

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Norwegian Centre for Climate Services

Climate report: «Svalbard 2100»(Spitsbergen, Bjørnøya, Hopen, Oceans)

Assessment: Past-Present-Future climate

Deadline: Dec 2018

Topics: Atmosphere

Hydrology (incl. snow and glaciers)

Permafrost, avalanches

Ocean climate incl. sea ice

Sea level

Contributors:MET, NVE, UniR

IMR

NERSC

NGI,

NP

Kartverket,

Univ in Bergen and Oslo

UNIS

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

E-mail: ketil.isaksen@met.no

Twitter: @Ketil_Isaksen

Meteorologisk institutt32Photo: Ketil Isaksen

Water filled terrainReindalen, Svalbard

Esimates of future temperatureLongyearbyen

Isaksen m.fl. 2017

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Trends in sea-ice concentration1978/79 – 2016/17

34

September December

Sea Ice Index, Version 3. NSIDC; Fetterer et al. 2017

PACE timeseries10 m depth

35

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Juvvasshøe og Tarfalaryggen

36

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Early signs of warming permafrost

Tps Janssonhaugen 1.4 °C

Tps Tarfalaryggen 1.1 °C

Tps Juvvasshøe 1.0 °C

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

The geothermal records are powerful indicators of climate change and

provide benchmark data on the past and present thermal state of

permafrost in the Nordic Arctic Region.

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

UNIS CALM Adventdalen

39

Christiansen et al. 2010

Schuh et al. 2017

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Permafrost monitoring sites & air

temperature anomalies

13.09.2018 Bunntekst40 Average air temperature anomalies during 2000–2014 (with respect to the 1971–2000 mean)

Map and anomaly data provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder Colorado (www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/)

a NW North America

a

d

d Scandinavia, Svalbard, RussiaSWIPA, AMAP 2017

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Mean annual ground temperatureContinuous to discontinuous permafrost in Scandinavia, Svalbard, Russia (Barents region)

13.09.2018 Bunntekst41

Region Since

IPY

North of West

Siberia+0.1 to

+0.2

Russian

European North+0.0 to

+0.5

Svalbard +0.5

Northern

Scandinavia +0.1 to

+0.3

Southern Norway -0.1

Change in MAGT (°C)

SWIPA, AMAP 2017

Meteorologisk institutt42

Future precipitation

Temperature development at Svalbard Airport

2016

Nordli m.fl. 2014; eKlima

Photo: Ketil Isaksen

2017

Norwegian Meteorological InstituteAdventdalen - March 1st 2018Photo: Ketil Isaksen

Norwegian Meteorological Institute45