PERD POL 6.1.1 TorontoJan. 23, 2003

Estimating the effects of climate change on large scale natural disturbances, and their impact on biomass productivity in Canada’s boreal forest.

David R. GrayNatural Resources CanadaAtlantic Forestry CentreFredericton, New Brunswick

Sylvie GauthierNatural Resources CanadaLaurentian Forestry CentreSte. Foy, Québec

Biomass as an energy source in Canada:

• provides 6% of Canada’s primary energy

60% increase in the contribution of biomass to Canada’s energy suppy since mid-1970’s

• carbon-dioxide “neutral”

• insect outbreaks and fires account for 82% of the annual depletion of above-ground biomass

• annual insect and disease losses (average) = 100 mil m3

(approx. 55% of annual harvest)

• annual loss to spruce budworm = 44 mil m3

(during peak outbreak)

• annual area burned (average) = 0.6 mil ha(productive forest land)

Biomass losses to natural disturbance agents:

spruce budworm range (Canada)approx. 1 mil km2 (100 mil ha)

model test area: 9.2 mil ha.

Spruce budworm

Dynamic nature of the forest mosaic

Time (yrs)

0 50 100 150 200

Vo

lum

e (

m3

/ha

)

0

20

40

60

80

undisturbed:

Time (yrs)

0 50 100 150 200

Vo

lum

e (

m3

/ha

)

0

20

40

60

80

Dynamic nature of the forest mosaicharvesting or fire:

Time (yrs)

0 50 100 150 200

Vol

ume

(m3/

ha)

0

20

40

60

80

Dynamic nature of the forest mosaicSBW disturbed:

Dynamic nature of the forest mosaic

Time (yrs)

0 50 100 150 200

Vo

lum

e (

m3

/ha

)

0

20

40

60

80

Time (yrs)

0 50 100 150 200

Vol

ume

(m3/

ha)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Time (yrs)

0 50 100 150 200

Vol

ume

(m3/

ha)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

the forest landscape:

Time (yrs)

0 50 100 150 200

Vol

ume

(m3/

ha)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Time (yrs)

0 50 100 150 200

Vo

lum

e (

m3

/ha

)

0

20

40

60

80

Time (yrs)

0 50 100 150 200

Vo

lum

e (

m3

/ha

)

0

20

40

60

80

Time (yrs)

0 50 100 150 200

Vo

lum

e (

m3

/ha

)

0

20

40

60

80

time (t0+years)0 50 100 150 200 250

popu

latio

n le

vel

spruce budworm outbreaks

.

Variation in spruce budworm outbreak dynamics:

time

timetime

time time

defo

liat

ion

leve

lde

foli

atio

nle

vel

defo

liat

ion

leve

lde

foli

atio

nle

vel

.

Variation in fire regime:

climate +

Time (yrs)

0 50 100 150 200

Vol

ume

(m3/

ha)

0

20

40

60

80

years

defo

liat

ion

leve

l

1 25

+ + . . .

Landscape Disturbance Simulation (LADS):

Objective:To include the [somewhat] predictable natural disturbances

insect outbreaksfire

with the [more] predictable forest ecosystem processesgrowthharvesting

in long-term simulations of forest dynamics to estimate the effects of a changing climate scenario on biomass production.

fire occurrenceand size

climate+

forest composition

spruce budwormoutbreak dynamics

year 1year 2

year 3

time line:

Necessary elements:

SBW impacts on individual speciesSTAMAN

SBW recurrence

time (t0+years)0 50 100 150 200 250

popu

latio

n le

vel

Stand growth modelSTAMAN

Time (yrs)

0 50 100 150 200

Vol

ume

(m3/

ha)

0

20

40

60

80

Time (yrs)

0 50 100 150 200

Vol

ume

(m3/

ha)

0

20

40

60

80

Necessary elements (con’t):

•historical records of spruce budworm outbreaks;

•historical records of fire.

Data – SBW outbreaks:

response variables:• timing of outbreak initiation• duration• severity• variability

explanatory variables:• latitude• longitude • combination of lat. & long.• summer temperatures• winter temperatures• annual precipitation• growing season VPD• forest species1

• …• forest species16

Canadian Forest Inventory (1992)Canadian Climate Normals (1990)

1960 - 1998

axis #1

axis

#2

+lag

dur sevvar .GDM .

WDM.

PREC.

VPD.

bF

.

bS

.r/wSyB

oBs/bM

oM wP.

jP

.rPH

C

tAoP

lat

R2 = .59

Relationships: SBW outbreaks - environment:

Data – fire occurrence:

explanatory variables:• latitude• longitude • combination of lat. & long.• summer temperature• monthly average mid-day

relative humidity• monthly average mid-day

wind speed• monthly mean precipitation

Canadian Climate Normals (1990)

raw data (CanFI cells):• no. fires/yr.• average fire size • average month of fire• day of cumulative 50% fire occurrence

Large Fire Database

response variable for fire zone:• no. fires/yr. (x ± s.d.)• average fire size (x ± s.d.) • average month of fire (x ± s.d.)• day of cumulative 50% fire occurrence (x ± s.d.)

a raster based simulation model;

C++ programming language;

stand-level growth and yield;

sustainable harvest levels;

natural disturbances (spruce budworm & fire);

insecticide protection;

fire management.

LADS (Landscape Disturbance Simulator):

Harvesting rates:regulated by current growing stock.

Harvesting sites:determined by stand maturity, salvage opportunity, mill requirements.

Insecticide protection program:site selections dependent on anticipated volume loss;total size of program set by user

LADS (Landscape Disturbance Simulator):

Landscape description:9.2 mil ha, 400 ha cells

Stand harvesting priorities:age (older before younger);softwood:hardwood ratio (2:1 desired);level of defoliation (more severely defoliated cells

before less severely defoliated ones);protection (exclude protected cells).

LADS (Landscape Disturbance Simulator):

LADS is climate dependent

•CGCM2 (GHG+A) model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis.

•climate variables interpolated by thin-plate splining to same resolution as CanFI data.

year

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

-20

0

20

40

60

80

softwoodhardwood

volu

me

(m3 x

106 )

(pro

tect

ed -

unp

rote

cted

)

Net annual volume loss:

N

EW

S

5000 - 10000

10000 - 1500015000 - 20000

20000 - 2500025000 - 30000

30000 - 3500035000 - 40000

> 40000

0 - 5000

Water

tonnes

Total carbon loss (no protection, std. climate, 300 yr simulation):

tonnes

Total carbon loss (no protection, modified climate, 300 yr simulation):

Thank you.LADS (Landscape Disturbance Simulator)

Estimating the effects of climate change on large scale natural disturbances, and their impact on biomass productivity in Canada’s boreal forest.

David R. GrayNatural Resources CanadaAtlantic Forestry CentreFredericton, New Brunswick

Sylvie GauthierNatural Resources CanadaLaurentian Forestry CentreSte. Foy, Québec