-
!!! !!!!!
Perceptions,!vulnerability!and!adaptation!to!
climate!change!in!Ethiopia:!the!case!of!
smallholder!farmers!in!Sidama!
!
!A!thesis!submitted!in!partial!fulfilment!of!the!
requirements!of!the!University!of!East!London!for!the!
degree!of!Doctor!of!Philosophy!!!!!Seyoum!Yunkura!Hameso!
!!
!!
!!
July!2015!
Thesis citation: Hameso, S. (2015) Perceptions, vulnerability
and adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia: the case of
smallholder farmers in Sidama. Unpublished PhD Thesis. School of
Social Sciences, University of East London.
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Abstract!!Climate! change! is! one! of! the! most! complex!
problems! of! our! time! presenting!unique! challenges! for!
societies.! For! developing! countries! such! as! Ethiopia,!
it!complicates!existing! challenges!of!development.!The!problem!
is! aggravated! for!Sidamas! smallholder! farmers! who! depend! on!
rain@fed! agriculture! to! produce!coffee! for! global!market!
and!Enset! for! subsistence.!Yet! farmers! understanding!and!
responses! to! climate! change! have! not! been! seriously!
acknowledged!
nor!empirically!studied.!!This!doctoral!thesis!explores!perceptions,!vulnerability!and!adaptation!to!climate!change.!More!specifically!it!seeks!to!explore,!document!and!analyse!perceptions!of!
climate! change,! examine! vulnerability! of! farmers! and! their!
adaptation!strategies! as! well! as! the! state! of! mainstreaming!
climate! change! adaptation!
to!development!policy!in!Ethiopia.!!!To!achieve!these!aims,!the!study!deploys!comparative!case!study!research!design!to!
analyse! climate! change! in! three! agroecological! zones.! Both!
qualitative! and!quantitative! research! methods! are! used! for!
data! collection! and! analysis.! A!modified! form! of!
sustainable! livelihoods! framework! is! deployed! as!
analytical!tool! to! investigate! vulnerability! context,!
livelihood! assets,! institutions!
enabling!or!hindering!adaptation.!Fieldwork!research!took!place!from!January!2012!@!May!2012!
involving! a! survey! with! 120! farmers,! focus! group!
discussion! with!
30!farmers,!semi@structured!interviews!with!15!farmers!and!17!policy!makers.!!!Findings!reveal!increased!temperature,!high!rainfall!variability!and!inter@annual!and!
intra@seasonal! variation.! Farmers! clearly! perceived! climate!
risks! based! on!their! experience! and! knowledge! of! their!
local! environment.! They! also! took!
a!number!of!measures!to!adapt!to!climate!change!within!their!capacity.!They!need!informed!
public! policy! and! research! to! help! create! enabling!
conditions! for!sustainable!livelihoods!and!increased!resilience.!!
!
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Acknowledgements!!In!the!course!of!this!doctoral!study,!I!received!support!from!numerous!people.!I!express!
deep! gratitude! to! Drs.! Meera! Tiwari! and! Giorgia! Dona! for!
their!professional!guidance!and!support.!I!am!also!grateful!to!the!Graduate!School!and!the!
School! of! Social! Sciences! at! the! University! of! East!
London,! Hawassa!University! and! Norwegian! Agency! for!
Development! Cooperation! (NORAD)!
for!their!kind!help!including!financial!support.!!!I! also!wish!
to! thank!a!number!of! people!who!offered! assistance!of! one!
sort! or!another.!They!
include!Steffen!Abele,!Amira!Ahmed,!Eric!Ansong,!Ayano!Baraso,!Mihret!
Barse,! Trygve! Berg,! Allan! Brimicombe,! Matewos! Dangiso,!
Andrew!Dorward,! Caroline! Dunmore,! Ngendahayo! Ezechias,! Argaw!
Fantu,! Salvatore!
Di!Falco,!Berhanu!Gasa,!Demirew!Getachew,!Tesfaye!Gissilla,!Belay!Hameso,!Toloma!Kawiso,!Bereket!Kebede,!Kathryn!Kraft,!Melkamu!Mamo,!Mauro!Ghirotti,!Maggie!McPherson,!Natalia!Paszkiewicz,!Phil!Rees,!Zegeye!Shaga,!Woldemariam!Terega,!Worku!
Tesemma,! Admasu! Tsegaye,! Motuma! Tura,! Mengistu! Yunka,! Julia!
Volz,!Myles!Wickstead,!Tahir!Zaman!and!Manfred!Zeller.!Heartfelt!thanks!are!also!due!to!family!and!friends!for!tremendous!understanding!and!unstinting!support.!!Finally,!
I!wish!to!thank!all!
the!people!who!participated!in!different!focus!group!discussions,!semi@structured!interviews!and!surveys.!In!the!course!of!the!study,!I!happen!to!visit!several!people!and!places!in!Sidama!whom!I!never!had!a!chance!to!
do! so! in! the! past! despite! being! born! and! spent! early!
youth! in! the!
area.!My!deepest!gratitude!goes!to!all!the!people!who!shared!valuable!time!and!thoughts!but!
not!mentioned! by! name! due! to! reasons! of! anonymity! and!
commitment! to!research!ethics.!!! !
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Prologue:!Research!positionality!!My!position!in!this!study!resembles!what!Sultana!(2007)!referred!to!as!tentative!insider!and!outsider!which!requires!further!reflexivity.!After!a!long!stay!in!UK,!I!
returned! home! in! 2008!with! cautious! optimism! and! solid!
determination!
to!make!a!difference.!I!then!joined!Hawassa!University!with!joint!roles!of!teaching!and!corporate!communications.!Part!of!my!responsibility!
in! the! latter! role!was!expanding! the! universitys!
partnerships! with! international! education!
and!research!institutions.!!!In!2010,!an!opportunity!has!dawned!to!meet!a!group!of!distinguished!scientists!studying!
climate! change,! agricultural! economics! and! food! security.!
The!
cohort!from!the!University!of!Hohenheim,!Germany,!conducted!a!seminar!from!7@8!April!2010!
in! ILRI@compound! (Addis! Ababa)! on! the! theme! of! Mitigation(
of( and(adaptation( to(climate(change( in(agriculture(
in(Eastern(Africa:( research(priorities(
and( research( approaches.! The! seminar! was! followed! by!
fact@finding! trips!
to!different!areas!in!southern!Ethiopia!including!Sidama.!The!prime!aim!of!the!field!trips!was!to!select!suitable!sites!to!research!climate!change!and!its!implications!on!small@scale!agriculture.!I!
joined!the!cohort!on!their!visit!to!different!parts!of!the!
region.! Time! and! again,! I! observed! farmers! in! deep! rural!
areas!
speaking!about!troubling!changed!times!referring!to!climate!change.!With!a!curiosity!of!a!scholar!who,!for!the!last!two!decades,!focused!on!development!themes!with!close!understanding!of!the!socio@political!and!economic!context!of!Sidama,!I!decided!to!take!the!inquiry!a!step!further!by!examining!the!evidence.!The!rekindled!interest!eventually!lent!inspiration!for!this!PhD!research!project!when!financial!support!became!available!later!in!the!year.!!!In!sum,!both!the!fieldwork!phase!and!the!overall!research!process!proved!to!be!enriching!
experience! which! enabled! me! to! meet! many! people! from!
different!walks! of! life! who! retrieved! their! experiences! and!
intimated! their! stories! that!need! documenting! and! analysing.!
This! is! the! context! in! which! the! research!developed.! !
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Table!of!contents!Abstract
...............................................................................................................................
ii!Acknowledgements
..........................................................................................................
iii!Prologue:!Research!positionality
..................................................................................
iv!Table!of!contents
................................................................................................................
v!List!of!abbreviations!&!acronyms
................................................................................
vii!List!of!figures
.....................................................................................................................
ix!List!of!tables
.......................................................................................................................
ix!List!of!appendices
...............................................................................................................
x!!Chapter!One:!General!background!and!research!context
.......................................... 1!1.1!Introduction
................................................................................................................
1!1.2!Scope!&!significance!of!the!study,!research!objective!and!questions
.................... 7!1.3!Background!to!Sidama
.............................................................................................
14!1.4!Background!to!Ethiopia!and!climate!change!policies
........................................... 22!1.5!Thesis!outline
...........................................................................................................
32!!Chapter!2:!Perception,!vulnerability!and!adaptation!to!climate
............................ 35!2.1!Introduction
..............................................................................................................
35!2.2!Perceptions!about!climate!change
..........................................................................
39!2.3!Vulnerability!to!climate!change
..............................................................................
41!2.4!Adaptation!to!climate!change
..................................................................................
48!2.5!Climate!change!and!development
...........................................................................
56!2.6!Summary
...................................................................................................................
64!!Chapter!3:!Methodology!and!analytical!framework
..................................................
66!3.1!Research!design!and!site!selection
.........................................................................
66!3.2!Sampling,!data!collection!and!analysis
...................................................................
72!3.3!Ethical!issues!and!practical!challenges
..................................................................
81!3.4!Analytical!framework:!Sustainable!livelihoods
.....................................................
87!3.5!Summary
...................................................................................................................
98!!Chapter!4:!Results!&!discussion:!Socioeconomic!&!institutional!context
............. 99!4.1!Introduction
..............................................................................................................
99!4.2!Socio@economic!characteristics!and!vulnerability!context
...................................
99!4.3!Livelihood!assets!and!options
...............................................................................
103!4.4!Structures!and!processes
.......................................................................................
113!4.5!Summary
.................................................................................................................
119!!Chapter!5:!Results!&!discussion:!Perceptions!of!climate!change
......................... 121!5.1!Introduction
............................................................................................................
121!5.2!Observed!climate
....................................................................................................
121!5.3!Perceptions!of!climate!change!by!farmers
...........................................................
130!5.4!Perceptions!of!climate!change!by!policy!makers
................................................. 148!5.5!Summary
.................................................................................................................
153!!Chapter!6:!Results!&!discussion:!Vulnerability!to!climate!change
....................... 154!6.1.!Introduction
...........................................................................................................
154!6.2!Climatic!stressors!and!impacts
.............................................................................
154!6.3!Vulnerability!to!climate!change
............................................................................
159!6.4!Highly!vulnerable!groups!and!systems
................................................................
180!6.5!Summary
.................................................................................................................
186!!
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Chapter!7:!Results!&!discussion:!Adaptation!to!climate!change
........................... 187!7.1.!Introduction
...........................................................................................................
187!7.2!Coping!mechanisms!and!adaptation!strategies
...................................................
187!7.3!Factors!enabling!and/or!constraining!adaptation
..............................................
205!7.4!Mainstreaming!climate!change!to!development!policy
......................................
208!7.5!Opportunities!and!benefits!from!climate!change
................................................ 219!7.6!Summary
.................................................................................................................
223!!Chapter!8:!Conclusion!and!recommendations
.........................................................
224!8.1!Conclusion
...............................................................................................................
224!8.2!Recommendations
.................................................................................................
230!8.3!Contributions!of!the!study
.....................................................................................
237!8.4!Limitations!of!the!study
.........................................................................................
240!8.5!Future!research
......................................................................................................
241!!Bibliography
....................................................................................................................
243!!Appendices
......................................................................................................................
274!!! !
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List!of!abbreviations!&!acronyms!!!ADLI!
Agriculture!Development!Led!Industrialization!(Ethiopia)!AEZ!
Agroecological!Zone!AfDB! African!Development!Bank!ASAP!
Adaptation!for!Smallholder!Agriculture!Programme,!IFAD!ATA!
Agricultural!Transformation!Agency!(Ethiopia)!Birr!
Ethiopian!Birr,!also!ETB!CAQDAS!
Computer!Assisted!Qualitative!Data!Analysis!Software!CDM!
Clean!Development!Mechanism,!Kyoto!Protocol!CO2!
Carbon!dioxide,!the!most!important!greenhouse!gas!CoP!
Conference!of!the!Parties,!annual!summit!of!UNFCCC!CRGE!
Climate!Resilient!Green!Economy!(Ethiopia)!CSA!
Central!Statistical!Authority!(Ethiopia)!DCG!
Drylands!Coordination!Group!(Africa)!DFID!
Department!for!International!Development!(UK)!EEA!
Ethiopian!Economics!Association!EIAR!
Ethiopian!Institute!of!Agricultural!Research!ENSO!
El!Nio!Southern!Oscillation!EPA!
Environmental!Protection!Agency!(Ethiopia)!EPRDF!
Ethiopian!Peoples!Revolutionary!Democratic!Front!ESRC!
Economic!and!Social!Research!Council!(United!Kingdom)!EU!
European!Union!FAO!
Food!and!Agriculture!Organization!(United!Nations)!FGD!
Focus!group!discussion!GCMs! General!Circulation!Models!GDP!
Gross!Domestic!Product!GEF! Global!Environment!Facility!GERD!
Grand!Ethiopian!Renaissance!Dam!GHGs!
Greenhouse!gases!(mainly!CO2,!N2O,!and!methane)!GPS!
Global!Positioning!System!!GoE! Government!of!Ethiopia!GTP!
Growth!and!Transformation!Plan!!HU! Hawassa!University!HYVs!
High!Yield!Varieties!(crops),!also!hybrid!seeds!IDS!
Institute!of!Development!Studies!IFAD!
International!Fund!for!Agricultural!Development!IFPRI!
International!Food!Policy!Research!Institute!IIED!
International!Institute!for!Environment!and!Development!ILRI!
International!Livestock!Research!Institute!IMF!
International!Monetary!Fund!IPCC!
Intergovernmental!Panel!on!Climate!Change!ITCZ!
Inter@Tropical!Convergence!Zone!LDCs!
Least!Developed!Countries!masl! Metres!above!sea!level!MDGs!
Millennium!Development!Goals!MFIs! Microfinance!Institutions!MoARD!
Ministry!of!Agriculture!and!Rural!Development!(Ethiopia)!MoEF!
Ministry!of!Environment!and!Forests!(Ethiopia)!MoFED!
Ministry!of!Finance!and!Economic!Development!(Ethiopia)!MoH!
Ministry!of!Health!(Ethiopia)!MoWE!
Ministry!of!Water!and!Energy!(Ethiopia)!
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N2O! Nitrous!oxide,!a!greenhouse!gas!NAMA!
Nationally!Appropriate!Mitigation!Action!NAPA!
National!Adaptation!Programme!of!Action!NGO!
Non@governmental!organisation!NMA!
National!Metrological!Agency!(Ethiopia)!NORAD!
Norwegian!Agency!for!Development!Cooperation!OECD!
Organisation!for!Economic!Co@operation!and!Development!PASDEP!
Plan!for!Accelerated!and!Sustained!Development!to!End!Poverty!PSNP!
Productive!Safety!Net!Programme!REDD+!
Reducing!Emissions!from!Deforestation!and!Forest!Degradation!SHFs!
Smallholder!farmers!!SIDA!
Swedish!International!Development!Agency!SLF!
Sustainable!Livelihood!Framework!SLUF!
Sustainable!Land!Use!Forum!(Ethiopia)!SNNPRS!
Southern!Nations!&!Nationalities!Peoples!Regional!State!SPSS!
Statistical!Package!for!the!Social!Sciences!SOS!Sahel!
Save!Our!Souls!Sahel!(Ethiopia)!SSA! Sub@Saharan!Africa!TNAs!
Technology!Needs!Assessments!UEL! University!of!East!London!UNDP!
United!Nations!Development!Programme!UNEP!
United!Nations!Environment!Programme!UNFCCC!
United!Nations!Framework!Convention!on!Climate!Change!USAID!
United!States!Agency!for!International!Development!USD!
United!States!Dollars!WB! World!Bank!WHO!
World!Health!Organisation!WMO!
World!Meteorological!Organization!WVE! World!Vision!Ethiopia!!!!
!
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List!of!figures!FIGURE!1:!LOCATION!OF!SIDAMA!IN!ETHIOPIA!..................................................................................................................!15!FIGURE!2:!STUDY!SITES!AND!WEATHER!STATIONS!............................................................................................................!67!FIGURE!3:!XEXICHA!IN!ADMINISTRATIVE!MAP!OF!HULA!DISTRICT!..................................................................................!69!FIGURE!4:!AWAADA!IN!ADMINISTRATIVE!MAP!OF!DALE!DISTRICT!.................................................................................!70!FIGURE!5:!JARA!IN!ADMINISTRATIVE!MAP!OF!HAWASSA!ZURIA!DISTRICT!.....................................................................!71!FIGURE!6:!SUSTAINABLE!LIVELIHOOD!FRAMEWORK!.........................................................................................................!88!FIGURE!7:!AVERAGE!HOUSEHOLD!INCOME!........................................................................................................................!102!FIGURE!8:!AVERAGE!HOUSEHOLD!EXPENDITURE!.............................................................................................................!103!FIGURE!9:!ACCESS!TO!LIVELIHOOD!ASSETS!.......................................................................................................................!104!FIGURE!10:!LIVELIHOOD!ACTIVITY!PRIORITY!...................................................................................................................!109!FIGURE!11:!LAND!HELD!AND!CULTIVATED!.......................................................................................................................!110!FIGURE!12:!SOURCES!OF!CREDIT/LOAN!............................................................................................................................!112!FIGURE!13:!BARRIERS!TO!SEEKING!CREDIT!......................................................................................................................!112!FIGURE!14:!TEMPERATURE!DATA!......................................................................................................................................!123!FIGURE!15:!SEASONAL!TEMPERATURE,!TREND!...............................................................................................................!125!FIGURE!16:!SNNP!REGIONAL!AVERAGE!ANNUAL!MINIMUM!TEMPERATURE!..............................................................!126!FIGURE!17:!RAINFALL!DATA!...............................................................................................................................................!126!FIGURE!18:!SEASONAL!RAINFALL!TREND!(CUMULATIVE!AVERAGE!1991@2011)!....................................................!128!FIGURE!19:!INFORMATION!SOURCES!.................................................................................................................................!130!FIGURE!20:!OVERALL!PERCEPTION!OF!CLIMATE!CHANGE!..............................................................................................!131!FIGURE!21:!ARID!CONDITIONS!IN!HIGHLAND!XEXICHA!...................................................................................................!136!FIGURE!22:!SPREAD!OF!MOSQUITOES!................................................................................................................................!137!FIGURE!23:!RAINFALL!AMOUNT!AND!WATER!AVAILABILITY!.........................................................................................!156!FIGURE!24:!IMPACT!OF!CLIMATE!CHANGE!ON!IMPORTANT!CROPS!AND!PLANTS!.........................................................!157!FIGURE!25:!OBSERVED!TREND!FOR!MAJOR!CROPS/PLANTS!...........................................................................................!158!FIGURE!26:!OPEN!FIELD!RURAL!MARKET!IN!HULA!..........................................................................................................!165!FIGURE!27:!DISTRIBUTION!OF!MICROFINANCE!INSTITUTIONS!IN!ETHIOPIA!...............................................................!166!FIGURE!28:!ROAD!CONDITIONS!NEAR!JARA!AREA!............................................................................................................!167!FIGURE!29:!PERCENTAGE!OF!PARTICIPANTS!INVOLVED!IN!DISPUTES!..........................................................................!170!FIGURE!30:!DRY!WELL!IN!CLOSE!PROXIMITY!TO!EUCALYPTUS!PLANTATION!...............................................................!177!FIGURE!31:!LAND!DEGRADATION!&!FLOODING!...............................................................................................................!178!FIGURE!32:!ROAD!FORMED!BY!GULLY!EROSION!...............................................................................................................!178!FIGURE!33:!FLOODED!PLAINS!IN!JARA!...............................................................................................................................!179!FIGURE!34:!GULLY!EROSION!NEAR!MAQBASA!..................................................................................................................!179!FIGURE!35:!FARMING!METHODS!AND!TOOLS!....................................................................................................................!185!FIGURE!36:!COPING!MECHANISMS!.....................................................................................................................................!188!FIGURE!37:!LOCAL!CARPENTRY!USING!BAMBOO!IN!XEXICHA!........................................................................................!193!FIGURE!38:!APPLICATION!OF!FERTILISER!BY!SMALLHOLDER!FARMERS!.......................................................................!195!FIGURE!39:!LOCAL!CROP!STORAGE!UNITS!.........................................................................................................................!202!FIGURE!40:!PURCHASE!OF!INPUTS!.....................................................................................................................................!203!!List!of!tables!TABLE!1:!CLIMATE!CHANGE!PROJECTIONS!FOR!ETHIOPIA!...............................................................................................!30!TABLE!2:!TIMELINE!IN!GLOBAL!ENVIRONMENT@DEVELOPMENT!DISCOURSE!&!POLICY!...............................................!59!TABLE!3:!AGROECOLOGICAL!CHARACTERISTICS!OF!RESEARCH!SITES!.............................................................................!68!TABLE!4:!RESEARCH!OBJECTIVES,!QUESTIONS!AND!DATA!SOURCES!...............................................................................!73!TABLE!5:!SOCIOECONOMIC!SUMMARY!OF!HOUSEHOLD!SURVEY!(STATISTICS)!............................................................!100!TABLE!6:!ACCESS!TO!LIVELIHOOD!ASSETS!BY!HOUSEHOLDS!(RATING)!........................................................................!105!TABLE!7:!STATION!TEMPERATURE!DATA!.........................................................................................................................!122!TABLE!8:!FARMERS!PERCEPTIONS!ABOUT!CLIMATE!CHANGE!.......................................................................................!132!TABLE!9:!SEASONAL!CALENDAR!IN!SIDAMA!MIDLANDS!..................................................................................................!135!TABLE!10:!OBSERVED!CHANGES!IN!LIVELIHOOD!CONDITIONS!......................................................................................!154!TABLE!11:!SUMMARIZED!MULTI@DIMENSIONAL!INDICATORS!OF!VULNERABILITY!.....................................................!159!TABLE!12:!SURVEY!DATA!ON!HEALTH!EXPERIENCE!........................................................................................................!172!
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TABLE!13:!GENDER!AND!VULNERABILITY!TO!CLIMATE!CHANGE!...................................................................................!182!TABLE!14:!CLIMATE!CHANGE!RESPONSE!FRAMEWORK!!COPING!AND!ADAPTATION!................................................!189!TABLE!15:!ADAPTATION!CATEGORIES!AND!STRATEGIES!................................................................................................!191!!List!of!appendices!APPENDIX!1:!SIDAMA!ADMINISTRATIVE!DIVISIONS,!POPULATION!AND!AREA!(2011)!..............................................!274!APPENDIX!2:!RELEVANT!LEGISLATION!ON!ENVIRONMENTAL!PROTECTION!IN!ETHIOPIA!.........................................!275!APPENDIX!3:!QUALITATIVE!!SEMI@STRUCTURED!INTERVIEW!QUESTIONS!.................................................................!275!APPENDIX!4:!QUANTITATIVE!!HOUSEHOLD!SURVEY!QUESTIONS!................................................................................!278!!
