People Power Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt- Implications for Regional Security and Democratization in the Middle East

8/7/2019 People Power Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt- Implications for Regional Security and Democratization in the Middle East

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People Power Revolutions in Tunisia

and Egypt: implications for regional

security and democratization in theMiddle East

People Power Revolutions in Tunisia

and Egypt: implications for regional

security and democratization in theMiddle East

By: Javad HeydarianBy: Javad HeydarianQuickTime� and a

decompressor are needed to see this picture.



The Middle East¶s Berlin Wall

Moment?

The Middle East¶s Berlin Wall

Moment?

An analysis of the set of factors, whichcontributed to the emergence of unprecedented levels of massive pro-democracy protests in Egypt and Tunisia

Situating the mass uprisings within an

international context: comparison withrevolutions and people power movementsin other comparable countries

An analysis of the set of factors, whichcontributed to the emergence of unprecedented levels of massive pro-democracy protests in Egypt and Tunisia

Situating the mass uprisings within an

international context: comparison withrevolutions and people power movementsin other comparable countries



The Middle East on the Cusp of

Change

The Middle East on the Cusp of

Change

A comparative analysis between mass uprisingsin Egypt, Tunisia, on one hand, and the simmering

or existing protests in other Arab countries in theLevant, and Persian Gulf.

The implications of a systemic change in Egypt on

the foreign policy of the United States, Israel¶snational security, and Iran¶s regional standing

A comparative analysis between mass uprisingsin Egypt, Tunisia, on one hand, and the simmering

or existing protests in other Arab countries in theLevant, and Persian Gulf.

The implications of a systemic change in Egypt on

the foreign policy of the United States, Israel¶snational security, and Iran¶s regional standing



A Revolution long in the making?A Revolution long in the making?

R evolution: ³an overall system change, oftenthrough violence, where an existing politicalregime and dominant social order is replaced witha radically new sets of institutions, inter-classrelations, and political system.´

People Power: ³non-violent mass uprisings, whichled to the downfall of autocratic regimes,characterized by a relatively stable and orderlytransition to democracy.´

R evolution: ³an overall system change, oftenthrough violence, where an existing politicalregime and dominant social order is replaced witha radically new sets of institutions, inter-classrelations, and political system.´

People Power: ³non-violent mass uprisings, whichled to the downfall of autocratic regimes,characterized by a relatively stable and orderlytransition to democracy.´



Indications of Growing Discontent:Indications of Growing Discontent:

The Kefaya Movement in 2004

The 2005 elections - Ayman Nour incident

TheA

pril 6 movement Food R iots in 2008

The National Association for Change in 2010

Protests in Alexandria due to police brutalities

The killing of Coptics and mass protests

The 2011 parliamentary elections

The Kefaya Movement in 2004

The 2005 elections - Ayman Nour incident

TheA

pril 6 movement Food R iots in 2008

The National Association for Change in 2010

Protests in Alexandria due to police brutalities

The killing of Coptics and mass protests

The 2011 parliamentary elections



The Façade of Stability: A Myth Behind

Autocratic Regimes in the Middle East

The Façade of Stability: A Myth Behind

Autocratic Regimes in the Middle East

Tahrir Square and October 6th bridge (Jan 2010) Tahrir Square and October 6th bridge (Jan 2010)



Tahrir Square by Feb 2011Tahrir Square by Feb 2011



An Active Political Volcano:An Active Political Volcano:

In March 2010, in an Article, entitled ³Egypt¶sImpending Political Earthquake´, I laid downthe following arguments:

1. Egypt, one of the most powerful U.S. alliesin the Arab world, is sitting on a politicalvolcano ready to erupt at any moment.

2. The United States can play a productive rolein the transformation of Egyptian politics by pressuring the government towards reformand preventing hardline Israel from

interfering in Egypt¶s politics.

In March 2010, in an Article, entitled ³Egypt¶sImpending Political Earthquake´, I laid downthe following arguments:

1. Egypt, one of the most powerful U.S. alliesin the Arab world, is sitting on a politicalvolcano ready to erupt at any moment.

2. The United States can play a productive rolein the transformation of Egyptian politics by pressuring the government towards reformand preventing hardline Israel from

interfering in Egypt¶s politics.



Despite decades of stability and economic growth,there is rampant poverty, huge inequality, and asociety-wide yearn for political change: the 2011upcoming elections serving as a watershed.

Prominent personalities such as Elbaradei and AmrMousa will seek presidency.

Egypt¶s complicity in the µGaza siege¶ is a potentialrallying point, while Islamic consciousness is shapingthe growing pluralism in the social landscape.

Despite decades of stability and economic growth,there is rampant poverty, huge inequality, and asociety-wide yearn for political change: the 2011upcoming elections serving as a watershed.

Prominent personalities such as Elbaradei and AmrMousa will seek presidency.

Egypt¶s complicity in the µGaza siege¶ is a potentialrallying point, while Islamic consciousness is shapingthe growing pluralism in the social landscape.



T he upcoming election is also the perfect opportunity forprogressive forces, inside and outside Egypt, to advancedemocratic ideals that are more likely than ever to translateinto concrete political results. People in Egypt havecontinuously shown their willingness to embrace amore democratic and even more liberal society. The2011 elections could be the perfect opportunity for real political change.

A democratic political transition could verywell take place in Egypt in 2011. But it will happen only if the United States shifts to anon-interventionist policy vis-à-vis Egypt «

T he upcoming election is also the perfect opportunity forprogressive forces, inside and outside Egypt, to advancedemocratic ideals that are more likely than ever to translateinto concrete political results. People in Egypt havecontinuously shown their willingness to embrace amore democratic and even more liberal society. The2011 elections could be the perfect opportunity for real political change.

A democratic political transition could verywell take place in Egypt in 2011. But it will happen only if the United States shifts to anon-interventionist policy vis-à-vis Egypt «



Arab World¶s ExceptionalismArab World¶s Exceptionalism

Democratic movements and political dynamismin non-Arab ME countries:

1. Iran:

- The popular revolution in 1979

- The rise of reformist movement in 1997: ³Islam-D

emocracy´ Synthesis- The Green Movement in 2009

Democratic movements and political dynamismin non-Arab ME countries:

1. Iran:

- The popular revolution in 1979

- The rise of reformist movement in 1997: ³Islam-D

emocracy´ Synthesis- The Green Movement in 2009



The Iranian Model: Independence and

Pluralism

The Iranian Model: Independence and

Pluralism 31st anniv. of the revolution The green mov¶t rally 31st anniv. of the revolution The green mov¶t rally



The 1979 Revolution: Toppling of a pro-US

Autocracy

The 1979 Revolution: Toppling of a pro-US

Autocracy

A revolution that ended the

reign of US¶ most powerful

Ally in the region.

Greatest number of mass

protests/participation in human

History

A site of numerous competitivepresidential elections

A revolution that ended the

reign of US¶ most powerful

Ally in the region.

Greatest number of mass

protests/participation in human

History

A site of numerous competitivepresidential elections

Qui i

i i ure.



The Turkish Model: Economic Dynamism and

Islamic Democracy

The Turkish Model: Economic Dynamism and

Islamic Democracy

The election of Justice and Development Party

AKP in 2002 ushered in a new era of politics

A decisive move towards µcivilian politics¶,

political reform, and social pluralism

Successful rates of sustained economic growth

The election of Justice and Development Party

AKP in 2002 ushered in a new era of politics

A decisive move towards µcivilian politics¶,

political reform, and social pluralism

Successful rates of sustained economic growth



I

sraelI

srael µApartheid¶ regime or liberal democracy?

1. The country claims to be the only democraticcountry in the region

2. Invited by the OECD to be a member country

3. R esembling many aspects of liberal democracyalong Western European lines, albeit plagued byserious defects.

4. Political leaders voted based on elections: µelitecirculation¶ and organized electoral uncertainty

µApartheid¶ regime or liberal democracy?

1. The country claims to be the only democraticcountry in the region

2. Invited by the OECD to be a member country

3. R esembling many aspects of liberal democracyalong Western European lines, albeit plagued byserious defects.

4. Political leaders voted based on elections: µelitecirculation¶ and organized electoral uncertainty



Arab World: troubled democratic

vestiges

Arab World: troubled democratic

vestiges

The 1991 elections in Algeria

The Lebanese system: ethnic-sectarian

conflict, and foreign intervention

The 2006 election in Palestine

The 1991 elections in Algeria

The Lebanese system: ethnic-sectarian

conflict, and foreign intervention

The 2006 election in Palestine



The Egyptian and Tunisian Revolutions in

2011: the Arab World on the Cusp of

transformation

The Egyptian and Tunisian Revolutions in

2011: the Arab World on the Cusp of

transformation Unprecedented, spontaneous, and ³promising´ - it

broke the barrier of fear and intimidation

US and the military played a constructive roleduring the course of the uprising

Led to the collapse of autocratic top US¶ regionalallies

Largely secular, non-violent, broad-based,

domestic-politics-oriented, and swift in µsuccess¶

Unprecedented, spontaneous, and ³promising´ - itbroke the barrier of fear and intimidation

US and the military played a constructive roleduring the course of the uprising

Led to the collapse of autocratic top US¶ regionalallies

Largely secular, non-violent, broad-based,

domestic-politics-oriented, and swift in µsuccess¶



The Role of Social MediaThe Role of Social Media

Egyptian Youth: Admittedly inspired by the GreenMovement in Iran in 2009

Facebook becoming a platform for debates,organization of protests, and mobilization of thepublic

Caught global attention: international mediaputting pressure on the state to refrain frommassive crackdown

Egyptian Youth: Admittedly inspired by the GreenMovement in Iran in 2009

Facebook becoming a platform for debates,organization of protests, and mobilization of thepublic

Caught global attention: international mediaputting pressure on the state to refrain frommassive crackdown



The Egyptian and Tunisian

Revolution

The Egyptian and Tunisian

Revolution Both Southern Mediterranean and in proximity to

the E.U.

Aggressively liberalized economies, high levels of corruption, rampant unemployment and poverty,huge income inequality, and non-oil-rich.

Autocratic leaders reliant on µinternal securityforces¶, but, with relatively µprofessionalized¶armies.

Both Southern Mediterranean and in proximity tothe E.U.

Aggressively liberalized economies, high levels of corruption, rampant unemployment and poverty,huge income inequality, and non-oil-rich.

Autocratic leaders reliant on µinternal securityforces¶, but, with relatively µprofessionalized¶armies.



QuickTi

c r ss r r t s t is ictur .





The Spark The Spark

The Self-Immolation

of Mohamed

Bouazizi

of Sidi Bouzid in

December 17

Led to massive outrage at the government and the

system across Tunisia, ending in the ouster of thepresident

then protests spread across the region

The Self-Immolation

of Mohamed

Bouazizi

of Sidi Bouzid in

December 17

Led to massive outrage at the government and the

system across Tunisia, ending in the ouster of thepresident

then protests spread across the region

QuickTime� and a decompr essor

ar e needed to see t is pictur e.



ComparablesComparables The Iranian R evolution in 1979

EDSA R evolution in 1986

Suharto¶s demise in 1998 after - after 30 years of leadership

People Power R evolution in Eastern Europe andCaucasus

The Iranian R evolution in 1979

EDSA R evolution in 1986

Suharto¶s demise in 1998 after - after 30 years of leadership

People Power R evolution in Eastern Europe andCaucasus





Egypt: military tutelage or pluralistic

democracy?

Egypt: military tutelage or pluralistic

democracy?

Egypt¶s pivotal role in maintaining the regional

order means that the military - the key to therevolution¶s success - could play a decisive role inthe post-Mubarak era.

Depending on the military¶s maneuvers, therevolution could take different directions.

Egypt¶s pivotal role in maintaining the regional

order means that the military - the key to therevolution¶s success - could play a decisive role inthe post-Mubarak era.

Depending on the military¶s maneuvers, therevolution could take different directions.



The Turkish model ± the state makes a transition toa post-Mubarak scenario, but the military retains acentral political role. In case the democratic processfails to create a stable political consensus or seemsto be exploiting populism at the expense of the state,the military will step-in. The military will also do itsbest to retain control on or influence the defense andforeign policy (e.g. ties with the U.S. and Israel)

The Pakistani model ± there would be a transitionto a post-Mubarak situation, but the elections wouldonly bring-in a µsham¶ civilian government, which is

not in control of all key organs of the state. Inreality, a parallel state would run all intelligence,security, and defense organs of the state - the threatof coups would constantly threaten the governemnt.

The Turkish model ± the state makes a transition toa post-Mubarak scenario, but the military retains acentral political role. In case the democratic processfails to create a stable political consensus or seemsto be exploiting populism at the expense of the state,the military will step-in. The military will also do itsbest to retain control on or influence the defense andforeign policy (e.g. ties with the U.S. and Israel)

The Pakistani model ± there would be a transitionto a post-Mubarak situation, but the elections wouldonly bring-in a µsham¶ civilian government, which is

not in control of all key organs of the state. Inreality, a parallel state would run all intelligence,security, and defense organs of the state - the threatof coups would constantly threaten the governemnt.



The Military Steps asideThe Military Steps aside

The Indonesian model ± there would be a µregimechange¶, and the introduction of popular electionswould usher in a period of stable democratic politics± probably under the leadership of Elbaradei andother secular democrats - and graduallydemocratization would turn the military into a moreµprofessionalized¶ institution.

The Iranian model - a new regime with a markedlydifferent ideology takes over the regime, andfundamentally alters the domestic political order andthe foreign policy.

The Indonesian model ± there would be a µregimechange¶, and the introduction of popular electionswould usher in a period of stable democratic politics± probably under the leadership of Elbaradei andother secular democrats - and graduallydemocratization would turn the military into a moreµprofessionalized¶ institution.

The Iranian model - a new regime with a markedlydifferent ideology takes over the regime, andfundamentally alters the domestic political order andthe foreign policy.



Ripple Effects Across the RegionRipple Effects Across the Region

Types of states:

1. Oil-rich US¶ allies

2. R esource-poor US¶ allies

3. Non-US allies

Types of states:

1. Oil-rich US¶ allies

2. R esource-poor US¶ allies

3. Non-US allies



Some basic points:Some basic points:

Oil-rich countries, especially Qatar, Kuwait, andUAE, have strong µfiscal leverage¶ to stave-off amomentum for growing protests

Meanwhile, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia haveserious unemployment, inequality, and sectarianconcerns - trouble in the Persian Gulf is even moreµalarming¶

Libya, caught between Tunisia and Egypt, mighthave a more precarious situation: highunemployment, overstretched budget, and lowincome.

Oil-rich countries, especially Qatar, Kuwait, andUAE, have strong µfiscal leverage¶ to stave-off amomentum for growing protests

Meanwhile, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia haveserious unemployment, inequality, and sectarianconcerns - trouble in the Persian Gulf is even moreµalarming¶

Libya, caught between Tunisia and Egypt, mighthave a more precarious situation: highunemployment, overstretched budget, and lowincome.



The Situation outside the oil-rich Persian

Gulf:

The Situation outside the oil-rich Persian

Gulf: Yemen, Jordan, and Algeria are in a more difficult

situation:

- preexisting sectarian and secessionist movements

- Deep economic woes

- Limited room for µfiscal appeasement¶

- Unpopular alliance with the US

On the other hand, Syria - with a protectedeconomic system and booming ties with Turkeyand Iran - has been remarkably µsilent¶ so far.

Yemen, Jordan, and Algeria are in a more difficultsituation:

- preexisting sectarian and secessionist movements

- Deep economic woes

- Limited room for µfiscal appeasement¶

- Unpopular alliance with the US

On the other hand, Syria - with a protectedeconomic system and booming ties with Turkeyand Iran - has been remarkably µsilent¶ so far.



Bahrain and Libya: deepening

crisis

Bahrain and Libya: deepening

crisis Both are relatively large oil exporters

So far, the only major oil producing countrieswitnessing ongoing protests and violence

The unrest is already having a considerable impact

on oil prices - affecting global economic recoveryand food prices

Libya is a case of humanitarian crisis

Both are relatively large oil exporters

So far, the only major oil producing countrieswitnessing ongoing protests and violence

The unrest is already having a considerable impact

on oil prices - affecting global economic recoveryand food prices

Libya is a case of humanitarian crisis



Qui i e and a

de o p e oa e needed o ee hi pi u e



The Perils of TransitionThe Perils of Transition Bahrain - it is at the intersection of Iran-Saudi/US

rivalry

The element of Shia-Sunni issues

Libyan military in tatters - lack of professionalism

Tribal societies - lack deep democratic-civictraditions; threat of inter-tribal conflict

Bahrain - it is at the intersection of Iran-Saudi/USrivalry

The element of Shia-Sunni issues

Libyan military in tatters - lack of professionalism

Tribal societies - lack deep democratic-civictraditions; threat of inter-tribal conflict





The Changing Balance of PowerThe Changing Balance of Power

In 1979, US¶ top ally, Iran, makes a radical shift inits orientation, while Egypt becomes a staunch allywith its peace treaty with Israel in the same year.

Mubarak and BenA

li out of power, and other USallies in Algeria, Jordan, Yemen, and Bahrainunder increasing popular pressure

Turkey and Iran - bolstered by its rising allies inLebanon, Palestine, and Iraq - as the pivotal,independent, and assertive indigenous powers inthe region

In 1979, US¶ top ally, Iran, makes a radical shift inits orientation, while Egypt becomes a staunch allywith its peace treaty with Israel in the same year.

Mubarak and BenA

li out of power, and other USallies in Algeria, Jordan, Yemen, and Bahrainunder increasing popular pressure

Turkey and Iran - bolstered by its rising allies inLebanon, Palestine, and Iraq - as the pivotal,independent, and assertive indigenous powers inthe region



The Israeli Variable:The Israeli Variable:

Ensuring Cold War with Iran

The Mavi Marmara Incident and impact onIsrael-Turkey R elations

Fall of Mubarak and rise of democraticleaders - most with µcritical¶ views on µsiegeof Gaza¶

Ensuring Cold War with Iran

The Mavi Marmara Incident and impact onIsrael-Turkey R elations

Fall of Mubarak and rise of democraticleaders - most with µcritical¶ views on µsiegeof Gaza¶



Reconfiguring US¶ Foreign PolicyReconfiguring US¶ Foreign Policy

Need to re-examine the false doctrine of µstability-democracy trade-off¶

Supporting democratization beyond Israel-USbilateral security partnership

Accept the possibility of more µindependent¶ anddemocratic governments with popular-basedforeign policies

Need to re-examine the false doctrine of µstability-democracy trade-off¶

Supporting democratization beyond Israel-USbilateral security partnership

Accept the possibility of more µindependent¶ anddemocratic governments with popular-basedforeign policies

Documents

People Power Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt- Implications for Regional Security and Democratization in the Middle East