PEERRIIOODDIICC AACCTTIIVVIITTYY RREEPPOORRTT · Mr. George Smyrnakis VISIONS FP6 Project 4 - Presentation of Business Scenarios • Description of present market situation • Definition

Project Number: TNE4-CD-2005-516216

Instrument: Network of excellence

PPEERRIIOODDIICC AACCTTIIVVIITTYY RREEPPOORRTT

PPEERRIIOODD CCOOVVEERREEDD::

22000088--0044 -- 22000099--0033

AANNNNEEXX 66

Start date of project: 2005-04-01

Duration: 48 months

Project coordinator: Michael vom Baur

Project coordinator organisation name: Community of European Shipyards'

Associations A.S.B.L.

VISIONS FP6 Project

Presented by George Smyrnakis - WEGEMT

VISIONS FP6 ProjectMr. George Smyrnakis

Agenda

1. Introduction of WEGEMT

2. Overview of the VISIONS project (Video 3min)

3. Introduction to the VISIONS project

4. Presentation of Business Scenarios

– Approach

– An example of a Business Scenario

5. VISIONS Academic Contest Results

6. Case studies

– Present a selection of Ideas

– Present results of technical investigations

7. How to access the results Website demonstration

8. 6 Winning Ideas from Loop I & II (Video abt 1.5min each)


What is WEGEMT?

• WEGEMT “Western European Graduate

Education in Marine Technology” is an

Association of European Universities in Marine

Technology and Related Sciences

• Founded in 1978 at TU Delft

• 38 members in 16 countries

1 - Introduction of WEGEMT



The mission of WEGEMT is

• To promote knowledge in engineering-

related disciplines underpinning marine

technology and the interests of its associates at

European level.

The promotion of knowledge seeks to serve the

stakeholders in WEGEMT, namely the member

universities and the staff and students in those

universities, and address the needs of the

European maritime industry and society.



The specific objectives leading to fulfilment of the mission are:

• To update and extend the skills, knowledge and competence of practising engineers and postgraduate students working at an advanced level;

• To enable dialogue, collaborative research and shared learning among staff and students of member universities;

• To promote the application of knowledge for societal benefit through collaborative research involving staff and students of member universities and industrial organisations.



Activities that WEGEMT is involved with

• Intensive, short schools and innovative learning schemes at postgraduate levels of education

• Workshops, colloquia and conferences to report on technological and scientific progress

• Collaborative educational programmes

• Collaborative research projects of an academic nature

• Collaborative research projects involving academia and industry



2 - Overview of the VISIONS project

VISIONS Short Video


3 - Introduction to the VISIONS project

Objectives:

• to strengthen the European waterborne scientific and technological capability to develop innovative concepts for products of the future, by implementing a creative process which involves important stake holders and combines scientific excellence with market requirements

• to contribute to the early exploration of new market opportunities with a competitive advantage for European shipbuilders, by generating and validating ideas answering medium to long term scenarios

• to contribute to the solution of medium and long term transport related problems, like congestion of roads and cities, environmental and safety hazards

Sponsored by EC„s Sixth Framework Programme: Sustainable Transport

Duration: 3 Years containing three Loops

Participants: 23 Partners from 10 Countries

Project leader Michael vom Baur (CESA)

Internet www.visions-noe.net


Product development Steps

3- Introduction to the VISIONS project


3- Introduction to the VISIONS project

submission of technical

investigations

submission of ideas

evaluation of ideas

evaluation of tenders

servicecontracts

evaluation of investigations

workshop& award

definition of technical questions

submission of tenders

call for tenders

generation of scenario


4 - Presentation of Business Scenarios

• Description of present market situation

• Definition of Key Drivers/influence factors for Future

Developments

• Three possible scenarios are defined with varying

influence factors.

• Every Step above have been performed by Business

Area

• The Business Scenarios have been prepared by Evimar

and an e-lecture is available on the Visions website.


Business Scenarios: BA1 Cruise & LiesureBA1


Historical and current market description

5.000.000

7.000.000

9.000.000

11.000.000

13.000.000

15.000.000

17.000.000

19.000.000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

nu

mb

er

of

pa

ss

en

ge

rs

Demand Low estimate high estimate



Current Situation

Passenger Nr. grew by 7,5% in 2005 to 14.4 m.

Target to reach 20 m. passengers by 2011.

Four ships were added to the Fleet during 2005

About 30 ships are currently in order

About 100 new ships will have been delivered by the end

of the decade.

The size and capacity is increasing all the time

Average maximum capacity doubled over the past ten

years from 1600 to 2600 passengers.





Orders required to satisfy projected demand to 2014

(cruise ships larger than 1 000 lower berths)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2005-2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Num

ber

of ship

s r

equired to s

atis

fy

pro

jecte

d d

em

and to 2

014

Orders required to satisfy projected demand to 2014

Cruise ships with capacity exceeding 1000 berths



Influence factors

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Bonanza Troubled watersUnfulfilled

promises

1. Visibility, attractiveness High Low Low

6. Port availability & attractiveness High Low Low

7. Innovation in maritime clusters High Low High

11. Luxury level/"Value for money" High Low High

12. New activities and destinations Many Few Few

13. Degree of novelty concept experience High Low High





Scenario 1: BONANZA

• This jumboizing of the units eventually spurred a totally new development, that has really taken

off in recent years. Many travelers felt that the cruise product had become a mass market, not

really catering for the needs of the individual any more

• New concepts are coming on the market every year. Sometimes the concept is just the onboard

experience, sometimes it is the destination that is the key and sometimes a combination.

• The result is a series of different niche products where people feel they get really value for

money. The luxury level on board has become very high and still the cruise operators can offer

acceptable prices

• On the thematic side one can fine cruises devoted to gourmet food, wine school, art lectures,

history classes, a variety of different academic disciplines, all sorts of music: jazz, classical,

rock, salsa etc

• On the destination side one can go cruising in arctic areas, to remote islands in the Pacific or to

cultural metropolis visits in Europe, Asia and the Americas.

• The industry has managed to develop a most productive relationship to the technical universities

and consultants, particularly in Europe, and today cruise vessels are built in many countries,

not only in France and Finland, as used to be the case 20 years ago

• The dominance of the big cruise operators like Carnival and NCCL has been drastically

reduced. These companies still dominate the mass market and are still profitable entities, but a

host of smaller companies have emerged on the scene, making good profit on highly specialized

tourism products, much to the joy of individual travelers.


CONTEST TARGET:

To generate new cruise inventive concepts

perpetuating and improving the Bonanza scenario.


Scenario 2: TOUBLED WATERS

• The big players got bigger and bigger and so did the ships. Eventually customers started to turn

away from the very biggest ships, claiming dissatisfaction with this travel product; the ships had

become too large and too impersonal. This paved the way for a number of new concepts,

smaller and more specialised cruises. It was predicted that this was the way forward for

maritime tourism.

• The development, however, has been very disappointing. There are several reasons for this.

– The smaller concepts did not enjoy the benefits of economies of scale and to some

extent priced themselves out of the market.

– Attempts of introducing new destinations often failed because of lack of investments in

passenger terminals

– So the most popular destinations became overcrowded, with resulting congestion

problems and head on competition resulting in poor results and many bankruptcies.

• One of the few specialised offers that has shown great resilience is gambling cruises,

particularly in Asia, but also elsewhere.

• Exiting new offers like movie cruises, music cruises and art cruises have all closed down.

• The concepts have not been innovative enough – even if there were many different types to

choose from, the passengers felt they just got more of the same, they did not get sufficient value

for money.

• Lack of port development and lack of establishing new destinations.


CONTEST TARGET:

To generate new cruise ships concepts which will

invert the trend of above scenario.


Scenario 3: UNFULFILLED PROMISES

• Looking back at the history of cruise shipping, a main turning point was in the first decade after the

turn of the century, when the mass cruise market peaked and customers started to demand

smaller and more specialized experiences

• Some entrepreneurs picked up on this and a new era of cruise shipping started. An efficient co-

operation scheme among operators, research institutions and consultants quickly led to the

introduction of a number of new thematic cruises that created a lot of optimism for the industry.

Basically anything related to art or entertainment was tried out, and everyone in the industry was

totally enthusiastic about the potential future development.

• Customer‟s queries indicated people felt they got good value for money and the forecasts were

rosy. So what went wrong? The case today is that this segment of the cruise industry is in

trouble.

• The industry never managed to get the destinations to develop proper passenger terminals to

accommodate new business. The result was malcontent on the quality and massive congestions,

causing even more malcontent.

• It seems that the marketing efforts of the small and specialized operators have mostly been

failing. Since the smaller operators do not have the resources of the big ones in the mass market

when it comes to marketing, they lost out of a lot of opportunities.

• Finally, the lack of creativity in finding suitable new destinations, with proper terminal

development, has obviously sent a promising business segment into stagnation.

• Too bad for the consumers, too bad for lost opportunities.


CONTEST TARGET

To generate new cruise concepts which will

dramatically improve, in all aspects, the above

scenario.


BA2

VISIONS FP6 ProjectMr. George Smyrnakis BA3


BA4


BA5


Understand

market demand

Identify market

requirements

Define

functional

requirements

Create

technical

response

Today

Scenario 1

Influence factor 3

Influence factor 2

Influence factor 1

Influence factor 4

Influence factor 3

Influence factor 2

Scenario 2

Influence factor 4

Influence factor 5

Influence factor 1

Scenario 3

• Generate ideas

• Develop ideas and

concepts

• Based on market

requirements,

define functional

requirements to

the transport

solutions

• Historical

review and

current

situation

• Key influence

factors

• Scenarios

(alternative

futures)

• Translate the

scenarios to explicit

requirements in the

market place

Recommended use of scenarios in the contest

Below the process from the market demand to more explicit requiremnts and

basis for the ideas and concepts is illustrated .



Business Scenarios: General questions

• How to increase market volume.

• How to increase market share.

• How to minimize

– production costs or / and

– operation costs

• How to increase flexibility.

• How to minimize life cycle cost.

• How to use old or new technology successfully applied in other

branches but not yet in shipbuilding industries, for achieving the

goals described above.

• Think in categories of Systems-Solutions and Systems-Optimisation

instead of single Products.



5 - VISIONS Academic Contest Results

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

BA1Maritime Tourism

& Liesure

BA2Short Sea Shipping

BA3Inland

Shipping

BA4Deep Sea Shipping

BA5Floating

Structures

24

26

4

8 57

5 10

31 2

3

12

Nu

mb

er o

f Id

eas

Ideas Per Business Area

Loop 1 (2005/2006) Loop 2 (2006/2007) Loop 3 (2007/2008)



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1 1 3 4

21

72 1

92 6

18

32

15

3 5

9

11

177

24

20

7

1

27

4

27

Nu

mb

er o

f Stu

den

ts

Participating Students per CountryLoop 1 (2005/2006) Loop 2 (2006/2007) Loop 3 (2007/2008)



0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

ANAST (Liege) / ENSAN (Nantes)Ecole Nationale Superieure - ENSTA

Ecole Superieure d'Ingenieurs de MarseilleUniversity of Zagrep

Gdansk University of Technology Chalmers University of Technology

Danish Technical University Helsinki University of Technology

Technical University of BerlinUniversity of Applied Sciences Bremen

University of Duisburg-EssenUniversity of Rostock

National Technical University of AthensUniversità di Genova

Technische Universiteit Delft Norwegian University of Science and Technology

Universidade Técnica de LisboaUniveridad de la Coruna

Universidad Politecnica de MadridIstanbul Technical University

Univeristy College London University of Newcastle Upon Tyne

University of Strathclyde

Number of Students

Participating Students per UniversityLoop 1 (2005/2006) Loop 2 (2006/2007) Loop 3 (2007/2008)




• Total No of students engaged in Visions Competitions: 275

• Total No of submitted Ideas: 74

• Total No of participating Universities: 24

• Total No of participating Countries: 16

• WEGEMT distributed about 1M euros to its University members for evaluation purposes.

VISIONS Loop I, II & III


VISIONS FP6 Project

6 - Case Study - WMOPD07

Idea L02-33

• Title: WMOPD 07

• Submitted under Loop II 2006/2007

• Business Area: BA3 Inland Shipping

• Team: 3 Students from ITU

• Description:

Special RoRo-vessel, driven by chains with pontoons. Its L/B ratio is quite

different than the original ships and this feature allows transportation of a

variety of loads in large volumes. The idea proposes a special loading-

unloading procedure which uses modular cartridges that results in a

noteworthy decrease in loading/unloading times.

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• This idea was short listed but not awarded any final prize.

• 8 different expert evaluations were performed on this idea by Academic Professors from European Universities.

• The evaluations further investigated the concept’s

• Manoeuvrability, Stability and Seakeeping

• Production materials,

• Hydrodynamic and Propulsion

• Cargo handling and logistics

• Ship operations and Safety

• In total Visions invested € 123,200.00 in further investigating the concept idea


VISIONS FP6 Project


Evaluation VL2C02-I33EF2.1

Principal Investigator: Prof. Luis Perez Rojas

University Polytechnic of Madrid

Investigation task:

Analyse

the intact stability,

the sea keeping behavior and

the maneuverability.

Apply the relevant rules (IMO, SOLAS etc.) and

Compare the above with conventional RoRo-Ships and describe

the advantages or disadvantages.



1 : 150 Ship Model

Draft (m) 30 0.20

Displacement (t/kg) 176,872 52.4

LOA (m) 245 1.63

LWL (m) 198.5 1.32

BOA (m) 225 1.50

BWL (m) 221.5 1.48



Based on the information of the numerical model constructed

a 1:150 model was constructed in wood.



The final model ready for the tests can be seen on the image

below.



Only one loading condition was tested. This situation corresponds to a

draft of 30 m, for a speed of 10 knots, which was obtained based on the

towing tests as a coherent speed for this vehicle. As mentioned, the model

also reproduces a KG = 46.9 m and inertia radii of rxx = 0.421•B and

ryy = 0.302• LOA.

Towed at this speed, the vehicle encounters longitudinal regular waves of

different height (H) and period (T), which cover a range of different

length/Lwl (l / Lwl) values maintaining the wave slope (H/l)

These waves were generated with a wave generator of the flap type,

placed in one of the ends of the model basin. Ts Hs l / Lwl H / l

(s) (m) ( ) ( )

18.7 10.86 2.74 0.02

17.8 10.08 2.48 0.02

16.7 8.52 2.18 0.02

15.9 7.65 1.99 0.02

14.7 6.41 1.70 0.02

13.5 6.00 1.44 0.02

12.3 4.43 1.20 0.02

11.1 3.69 0.97 0.02

9.7 3.10 0.75 0.02

8.8 2.49 0.61 0.02



The model in transversal waves



Once the towing tests were finished, the seakeeping tests in regular waves

were made. Vertical motions, Heave and Pitch, for the speed of 10 knots

and for the loading condition described in the previous point, were

calculated.

The Heave and Pitch are calculated based on the measures of three laser

devices mounted on the towing carriage. Two accelerometers and the

forwards and back parts of the model have been included to obtain the

vertical accelerations at these two extreme points, since they will bear the

highest values through out the model‟s length.



Conclusions and findings of the investigationThe proposed craft fulfil the requirement of the intact stability due to high values

for initial stability. The heeling angle due to a severe storm conditions plus the

action to waves is not greater than 9º.

Due to the special powering mechanism, a good manoeuvrability characteristics

are expected.

From the experimental results carried out with a model to an scale 1:150, the

seakeeping performance, in the most frequent sea states, seems it would not be a

critical issue. Nevertheless, the maximum acceleration criterion at the bridge is

not achieved for SS. 7 and over this sea state and the criteria of maximum pitch

and acceleration at the bow, is not accomplished for SS. 8 and over this sea state.

No special requirements are expected from: SOLAS, MARPOL, LOAD LINES

Convention, TONNAGE Convention and COLREG Convention.

It has been compared with a Ro-Ro ship of 227,9 m length and carrying 7.200

units, the biggest ship of this class, the “Mignon” ship. Superior intact stability and

manoeuvrability characteristics are expected from the WMOPD 07 Design.

Nevertheless, the "Mignon" seakeeping performance fulfil all the criteria and the

proposed craft does not.

VISIONS FP6 Project

6 - Case Study - MEGA-Containership

Idea L01-21

• Title: Ultra Large MEGA-Containership Design

• Submitted under Loop I 2005/2006

• Business Area: BA4 Deep Sea Shipping

• Team: 4 Students from NTUA

• Description:

The Concept Idea is to develop an Ultra Large Containership (ULCS) that

will be able to over 15000TEU which is significantly more than

9200TEU_which is the largest containership registered in CS fleet

databases today.

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Evaluation VL1C27-I21EF4.1

Principal Investigator: Dr. Zhang Zhaomin

University of Liege

Investigation task:

Critically assess proposed loading equipment and identify potential

limitation and show stoppers


VISIONS FP6 Project


The investigation considered

Structural Barriers

Overloading the Crane

Supports of Quay

Structural stability in extreme loading conditions (see belw)

M

G

L

S

M

G

L

S

Ba la nc e Weight?

VISIONS FP6 Project


The investigation considered

Operational Barriers

Delays due to inconsistency

Dangers in the operations (posibility of collisions)

Inconvenience in positioning operations

Longer trajectory

Trolley

Trajactory of the Idea

Trajactory of Ordinary STS Crane

Container

outreach

VISIONS FP6 Project


Conclusions and findings of the investigation

It is an innovative idea that introduces the mechanic concepts

often found in the production lines into the container handling

operations. It tries to improve the operation efficiency and handling

rate though the measures of:

a. Handling group of containers simultaneously

b. Sharing the tasks with the elevators.

However, from the view of engineering, this solution is not feasible.

Due to possibility of 32 loaded containers on the crane, very strong

crane structure should be constructed. This will generate a

sequence of negative impacts (on the foundation of quay, on the

shock prevention, on the velocity, on the acceleration, on the

investment and economic effects, etc.)

VISIONS FP6 Project


Conclusions and findings of the investigation

The main limiting barrier of developing this idea is the structural

strength and structural stability. When in the extreme conditions

(with the moment of 40,160 ton.m on the outreach), the beam

should be designed to an impractical dimension, the rail span

should be augmented to an impractical large, and the steel used

for the structure would reach unaffordable level.

However, this idea gives a hint that may be interesting for the

future development.

That is the concept of utilizing multi-trolleys in STS Crane for

simultaneous operations in order to increase the container

handling rate.

VISIONS FP6 Project

6 - Case Study - ULFCH

Idea L01-04

• Title: ULFCH-Ultra Large Floating Container Hub


• Business Area: BA5 Floating Infrastructure

• Team: 4 Students from NTNU

• Description:

A module based floating container port, which also has large storage

capacity. This floating infrastructure has docks on both sides, which allows

the long reaching cranes to load directly from a large container ship to a

smaller costal transport vessel.

VISIONS FP6 Project


ULFCH Short Video

VISIONS FP6 Project


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• Title: Floating terminal within reach

• Published: May 2008 (2 year after what we published)

• Publisher: RINA Royal Institute of Naval Architects

• Venue: The Naval Architect May 2008 Issue (pp 51-52)

Article Title: A novel self propelled floating terminal

offers a promising solution of owners of larger ships

restricted to in-stream handling.

• Description: The idea describes how an offshore

floating container hub could be used to solve

container transport and logistic problems


VISIONS FP6 Project


VISIONS FP6 Project

6 - Case Study - Floating Windfarms

Idea L01-10

• Title: Floating Energy Wind Farms - Mobile power


• Business Area: BA5 Floating Infrastructure

• Team: 3 Students from HS Bremen

• Description:

This concept aims to generate the power by wind energy on floating

structures, then transform the energy on the structure and store it in

standardised modules. These modules allow a flexible and easy transport

of the energy to shore. Hydrogen will be used as a medium because of the

increasing influence of hydrogen. The whole unit should be installed on a

compact floating structure.

VISIONS FP6 Project


Floating Energy Wind Farms Short Video

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• Title: Class approval for new wind concept

• Published: Q1 2008 (2 year after what we published)

• Publisher: RINA Royal Institute of Naval Architects

• Venue: Q1 2008 issue of the Offshore Marine Technology

Journal (pp18)

• Article Title: Det Norske Veritas had granted an approval

in principle for a new offshore wind energy concept

developed by design company Sea of Solutions.

• Description: The idea describes how an offshore

floating wind farm can be used to provide solutions

to energy related problems.


VISIONS FP6 Project



• Reading at the articles one can find many similarities

between what VISIONS has developed two years ago and

what is now coming to the market. Also looking at the

pictures one can identify striking similarities

2006 VISIONS 2008 CURRENT

DEVELOPMENTS

REAL

CONCEPTS

VISIONARY

CONCEPTS

6 - Case Studies

VISIONS FP6 Project

Short Videos of:

On & Under Water Yacht

In port Ballast Water Treatment Platform

Floating Power Generation Plant

Clean Energy Production Vessel

6 - Case Studies

Documents

PEERRIIOODDIICC AACCTTIIVVIITTYY RREEPPOORRTT · Mr. George Smyrnakis VISIONS FP6 Project 4 - Presentation of Business Scenarios • Description of present market situation • Definition