PEERLESS MASTER PICKS -MONTHLY › myadmin › monthlyRpt › Peerless... · 2018-02-05 · Indian IT and Pharma sector. Third quarter performance of Indian companies is so far is

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3rd February 2017

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PORTFOLIO PICKS

STOCK PICKS FOR FEBRUARY 2017

Stock price in INR

COMPANY SECTOR CMP RATING POTENTIAL TARGET POTENTIAL UPSIDE

RBL BANK BANKING 390 ACCUMULATE 440 12.82%

BAJAJ CORP CONSUMPTION 373 ACCUMULATE 415 11.26%

SYNGENE PHARMA 538 BUY 625 16.17%

JUBLFOOD CONSUMPTION 922 ACCUMULATE 990 7.42% Time horizon of the recommended stock picks: 12 months unless specified

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UPDATE ON JANUARY 2017 STOCK PICKS

STOCK CALL

INITATED AT INITIATION

DATE POTENTIAL

TARGET RATING PRICE (25 JAN 2016) REMARKS

LT 1339.20 30-Dec-16 1550 BUY 1480.70 Open

BATA INDIA 448.45 30-Dec-16 485 ACCUMULATE 493.55 Target achieved

IOC 322.95 30-Dec-16 365 ACCUMULATE 387.35 Target achieved

COAL INDIA 298.65 30-Dec-16 325 ACCUMULATE 326.15 Target achieved

ICICI PRU 300.10 30-Dec-16 330 ACCUMULATE 360.15 Target achieved

INDUSINDBANK* 1105.65 30-Dec-16 1220 ACCUMULATE 1303.20 Target achieved

Stock price in INR

Indusind Bank’s target revised upward to INR 1300 on Jan 11, 2017 after good Q3 result. INR 1300 target achieved on Feb 2, 2017.

Performance reports of recommended stock return in this report are carried on cash closing price and the call deemed to be open (for 12 months) on F&O expiry date of respective month until target is revised downward/upward depending on companies’ future performance. We have now revised this stock return performance policy from 30 Sep 2016(Oct derivative series) onwards and STOPLOSS BASIS stock calls are not given.

How Benchmark Index- Nifty moved in JANUARY 2017

OPEN: 8119 HIGH : 8747 CLOSE: 8740

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Global Economy Update:

Global Economy Outlook :

1) China posts worst export fall since 2009 as fears of U.S. trade war loom: China's

massive export engine sputtered for the second year in a row in 2016, with shipments falling in

the face of persistently weak global demand and fears of a trade war with the United States that

is clouding the outlook for 2017. Even if the Trump administration takes no concrete action

immediately, the specter of deteriorating U.S.-China trade and political ties is likely to weigh on

the confidence of exporters and investors worldwide. The world's largest trading nation posted

gloomy data with 2016 exports falling 7.7 percent and imports down 5.5 percent. The export

drop was the second annual decline in a row and the worst since the depths of the global crisis

in 2009.

2) Worlds jobless to rise amid slower growth, uncertainty – U.N. agency : The ranks of the

world's jobless are expected to grow this year due to slow growth, political and economic

uncertainty and a lack of investment, the International Labour Organization. Unemployment is

rising in major emerging economies, especially those reliant on commodity exports such as

Russia, South Africa and Brazil, the United Nations agency said. Due to the failure to create

jobs, global unemployment is forecast to increase by 3.4 million people in 2017, bringing the

total to 201 million.

3) IMF upgrades China growth estimate on stimulus, downgrades India after cash

crunch : The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for China's economic growth this

year by 0.3 percentage points to 6.5 percent, on expectations of continued policy stimulus. At

the same time, it downgraded India's growth outlook by 0.4 percentage points to 7.2 percent as

consumption in Asia's third-largest economy takes a hit from the government's recent decision

to abolish large currency notes.

China's economy grew 6.7 percent over the first three quarters of 2016, in line with the

country's 6.5 to 7 percent growth target, but risks are also increasing with growth reliant on

government spending, record lending by state banks and an overheating property market. The

IMF warned of the risks to China's economy of a sharp slowdown or disruptive adjustment as

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the government has been slow to tackle high corporate debt, with capital outflows also

potentially exacerbating pressures. China's corporate debt has climbed to 169 percent of GDP.

4) German economy surges at fastest rate in five years : The German economy expanded

at the fastest pace in five years in 2016 and the growth momentum is expected to continue this

year as rising private and state spending help Germany cement its position as the locomotive of

the euro zone. Europe's largest economy expanded by 1.9 percent last year as environment of

low interest rates and a record influx of refugees fuel household and state spending. These

factors have compensated for weakening exports, long the pillar of an economy where

manufacturing makes up about a fourth of output.

Source :- Tradingeconomics.com, world Bank , GDP is in USD Billion

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Indian Economy Outlook :

Key Statistics :

1) Consumer inflation eases to 3.41 percent in December : India's annual consumer price

inflation eased to a lower-than-expected 3.41 percent in December, its lowest level in more than

two years, helped by a sharp cooling in food prices, as per the government data. The downside

surprise was led by food articles, although core inflation printed below 5 percent. Overall

inflation is on track to print at or below 4.5 percent by March while industrial production

expanded by 5.7 percent in November from a year ago, its fastest pace in 13 months, the figure

was propped up by a favourable statistical base.

2) India's wholesale prices up 3.39 percent in December : India’s wholesale price index

inflation accelerated to 3.39% in December from 3.15% in November, the government data

showed. However, food articles inflation for the month was in negative, indicating a 0.7% fall in

food prices in December as compared to 1.54% rise in the previous month. This is the first fall in

wholesale food prices since August 2015. Fuel and Power inflation also rose sharply to 8.65% in

December from 7.07% in November, and core inflation was up at 2.2% in December as

compared to 1.6% in November.

3) Indian auto sales see biggest drop in 16 years : India's automobile sales saw their biggest

monthly fall in 16 years in December after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ban on high-value

banknotes sparked a severe cash shortage that dented demand for big-ticket items such as

cars.Automobile sales fell 18.66 percent in December to 1.2 million units, the biggest monthly

drop since the same month in 2000 as per SIAM data.Auto sales have seen an especially big

drop in rural areas and regions where cash transactions are typically prevalent. Large two

wheeler manufacturers have also seen a big impact due to their high exposure to rural markets,

the data showed.Two-wheeler sales fell 22 percent in December from the previous month, one

of the biggest falls on record, to 910,235 units, while domestic passenger car sales saw a 8.14

percent drop to 158,617 units.

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Market Outlook:

Union Budget brings some cheer to capital market as no negative surprises came in Budget proposal in

way of taxations. Budget was focused on development of rural economy, infrastructure and affordable

housing segment, proposal of lower tax burden for middle class would bring some positive effect on

domestic consumption. Budget leaves Long term capital gain untouched and provided sops for MSME

sector, allocating Rs 3.96 lakh crore capex outlay for infrastructure, could help the capital market to

trade with upward bias in near term. Low CPI inflation could provide room to cut interest rate by 25bps

in forthcoming RBI policy meet.

Global uncertainty arising out of policy changes by new US administration can bring volatility in equities

which is a cause of concern. Possible changes in visa policy and health care policy in US can hurt the

Indian IT and Pharma sector.

Third quarter performance of Indian companies is so far is mixed bag with private sector banks and

Auto companies posts healthy performance despite impact of demonetization whereas IT and Pharma

companies posts weak set of numbers.

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STOCK PICKS

Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 14598.28

52 week high (Rs) 412

52 week low (Rs) 274

3m average volume NSE 310849

Beta

Face value ( RS ) 10

Shareholding (%) Q3 FY 2016

Promoters 0.00%

Institutions 21.68%

Non-Institutions 78.32%

Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Total Interest Income (Cr) 2744.3 1953.1 1351.6

Net Interest Income (Cr) 819.2 556.4 341.6

PAT(Cr) 292.5 207.2 92.7

NIM (X) 2.09 2.05 1.87

EPS (Rs.) 9.4 7.0 3.6

Book Value (Cr) 92.0 76.0 69.3

(FY 16-Adjusted)

RONW(%) 9.78% 9.29% 4.91%

RoA (%) 0.74% 0.76% 0.50%

RBL Bank Sector: Finance-Bank NSE CODE: RBLBANK

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 390 | Target: Rs 440

TECHNICAL VIEW:

The stock formed a classic v shaped pattern breakout

and made 52 weeks high few days back implying

strength in the near term.

Higher top higher bottom continuous formation

breaking past new high patternwise show the start of

fresh upmove which is the 3rd wave of upmove

Target of stock in medium term is INR 440

For Q3 FY17 operating profit increased by 58% to

Rs. 235 crores and net profit increased by 59% to Rs.

129 crores over the same period last year. For the

nine months’ period ending December 31st, 2016,

operating profit increased by 67% to Rs. 639 crores

and net profit grew 52% to Rs. 316 crores, again

over the same period last year.

In wholesale book comprising corporate and

institutional banking and commercial banking

business saw a growth of 50% y-o-y. Wholesale

business corporate and institutional banking grew

66% and commercial banking grew 23% y-o-y. In

retail asset segment the advances grew 48%.

On agriculture portfolio it has seen growth of 20% y-

o-y. The growth was slower in commodity business

mainly due to high usage of cash in the cycle by

growers and traders.

Non-interest income grew 66% y-o-y and core fee

income grew 55% y-o-y. As per the management

point of view RBL continuing to see strong traction

in non-interest income, especially in a non-credit

linked fee growth categories. Our distribution, client

FX income and general banking fees are showing

strong growth.

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Company Data





Beta 0.54

Face value ( RS ) 1

Shareholding (%) Q3 FY2016

Promoters 66.86%

Institutions 27.90%


Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Net Sales (Cr) 876.4 825.6 671.7

EBITDA (Cr) 273.7 239.2 185.9

PAT (Cr) 196.3 172.7 148.9 Net Profit Margin (%) 22.4% 20.9% 22.2%

EPS (RS) 13.3 11.7 10.1

Book Value (Cr) 32.6 33.1 35.2

P/BV 11.8 13.9 6.2

RoNW(%) 40.8 35.3 28.7

RoCE(%) 40.8 35.3 28.6

Bajaj Corp Ltd. Sector: Consumption NSE CODE: BAJAJCORP

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 373 | Target: Rs 415

TECHNICAL VIEW:

The stock has taken strong support at its 200 dma and

bounced back with strong volumes indicating accumulation

at current levels.

It has been trading in a pattern which formed symmetrical

triangle in long term chart and now ready for breakout with

weekly MACD and RSI giving buy signals and getting

ready to breakout for target of INR 425 initially in medium

term.

The company operates in only cosmetics & toileteries

business segment. The companys product portfolio includes

bajaj almond drops hair oil, bajaj brami amla hair oil and

many more.

In Q32017 revenue of the company stood at Rs. 186.4

crore, a decline by 4.75% Y-o-Y. The EBITDA for the

quarter was Rs. 62.32 crores, it is 33.44% of sales, and it’s

lower by 9.44%. The PBT and the PAT were Rs. 73.47

crore and Rs. 57.79 crore. The PAT for the quarter has

grown by 17.2% over the same quarter in the previous year.

During Q3 it has got 42.5% of its off-take from the rural

areas whereas in the previous quarter this figure was

43.6%. This actually shows that post demonetization urban

off-takes have recovered faster; the rural off-takes are still

not back to the normal levels. Despite the adverse external

scenario the ASP stand has gone up to Rs. 24.85 crore

which is 13.33% of sales, this is against Rs. 23.03 crores

that was spent on ASP during the same quarter in the last

year, last year the spend was 11.77% of sales.

On the international business front the outlook has been

very encouraging with business growing at 72% in this

quarter. The international business now contributes over

5% of total turnover. The plans to enter larger markets like

Russia, Indonesia and Egypt are well under way and should

see the rollout in the next couple of quarters.

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Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 10766




Beta 0.82



Promoters 74.52%

Institutions 17.21%


Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Net Sales (Cr) 1107.0 859.9 699.5

EBITDA (Cr) 357.8 281.1 214.4

PAT (Cr) 221.2 175.0 134.8

Net Profit Margin% 19.9% 20.3% 19.3%

EPS (RS) 11.4 9.2 7.2

Book Value (Cr) 52.8 42.4 126.3

P/BV 7.3 0.0 0.0

RoNW(%) 21.0% 20.7% 20.4%

RoCE(%) 11.9% 18.5% 18.5%

Syngene International Ltd. Sector: Pharmaceuticals NSE CODE: SYNGENE

BUY | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 538 | Target: RS 625

TECHNICAL VIEW:

The stock has taken classical support both at its 200 dma

and this also happens to upward trending support line.

Momentum indicators like RSI & Stochastic are oversold

and turning up suggesting buying levels emerging at

current levels. It is also at its support area of Donchian

channel

The stock has target of INR 580 in medium term

Syngene’s business is categorized into three verticals -

Dedicated R&D Centers, Discovery Services and

Development & Manufacturing Services. Its research and

manufacturing facilities are spread across 1.3 mn sq ft

space in Bangalore and cater to more than 250 global

clients across multiple industries.

Q3FY17 revenue for the quarter grew by 23% to Rs.347

crore, EBITDA also registered 23% growth to Rs.127

crore while profit after tax was up by 12% to Rs.74 crore.

Company continue to maintain strong EBITDA and PAT

margins at 37% and 21% respectively during the quarter.

Looking on a year-to-date basis for the nine months, total

revenue also grew by 23% to Rs.956 crore, while

EBITDA and PAT grew at 33% and 29% respectively.

Phase-1 of Syngene’s new formulation facility will

become operational by next month. This is a state-of-the-

art multiproduct facility and is part of the $200 million

CAPEX program. Which will meets all of the expected

regulatory requirements of the US FDA, EMEA and other

regulatory authorities around the world.

Company’s ongoing agreement with Abbott Nutrition has

been extended for another year. And that has been a

multi-year relationship, Abbott’s first R&D center in India

and this has been a mutually rewarding partnership for

both the companies.

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Company Data





Beta 1.36



Promoters 44.96%

Institutions 41.76%


Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Net Sales (Cr) 2438.0 2092.8 1736.3

EBITDA (Cr) 277.1 255.1 249.6

PAT (Cr) 104.8 111.1 118.2

Net Profit Margin% 4.3% 5.3% 6.8%

EPS (RS) 16.0 17.0 18.1

Book Value (Cr) 111.3 98.5 84.1

P/BV 11.4 15.0 12.7

RoNW(%) 14.3% 17.2% 21.5%

RoCE(%) 12.8% 15.5% 19.8%

Jubilant Foodworks Ltd. Sector: Food Processing – Consumption NSE CODE: JUBLFOOD

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 922 |Target: Rs 990

TECHNICAL VIEW:

The stock has been moving in small range of 880-820 for

last 3 months after prolong 18 months downfall and made

a sharp rally getting out of this consolidation pattern. Such

breakout suggest end of bearish phase and beginning of

bull market in days to come.

Bullish Reverse & Head and Shoulder pattern formed and

pattern wise target will be INR 960-980

India’s largest food service company, with a network of

1085 Domino’s Pizza restaurants across 251 cities (as of

October 26, 2016). The Company & its subsidiary have the

exclusive rights to develop and operate Domino’s Pizza

brand in India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal. At

present it operates in India and Sri Lanka.

In Q2FY17 JFL reported 13.3% Y-o-Y growth in its

revenue to Rs 665.5 crore, This is largely attributable to our

continuous efforts towards innovations such as the launch

of Burger Pizza that has received very good response and

Pizza Mania Extremes, Navratra Pizza, etc. EBITDA for the quarter stood at Rs. 64.3 crore, which is

9.7% of the revenue and net profit at Rs. 21.6 crore, which

is 3.2% of the revenue.

Company continued expansion drive with emphasis on

payback parameters; JFL opened 59 new Domino’s Pizza

restaurants in this financial year and are at present

optimistic of achieving our planned target of around 130

new Domino’s Pizza for full year 2017.

Technology continues to be a dominant driver for growth

and a huge success focus area point for company. The

online ordering platform is witnessing a sharp surge. In Q2

our average online ordering sales contribution to delivery

sales stands at 47%, and mobile ordering sales contribution

to overall OLO is 54%. Whereas last year Q2 numbers were

36% and 30% respectively.

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Research Disclaimer

RATING PARAMETER

BUY We expect the stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months

ACCUMULATE We expect the stock to deliver 6% - 15% returns over the next 12 months

REDUCE We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12 months

SELL We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12 months NOTE Target prices are for a period of 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating parameter are for our internal

benchmark.

DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER Peerless Securities Ltd (PSL) es t a b l i s h e d in 1995, is a subsidiary of Peerless General Finance & Investment Co Ltd. PSL is a corporate trading member of Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India Limited (MSEI) & National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE). Our businesses include stock broking, services rendered in connection with distribution of primary market issues and financial products like mutual funds and fixed deposits, and depository services.

Peerless Securities Ltd is also a depository participant with National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and Central Depository Services (India) Limited (CDSL). We are registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014.

We hereby declare that our activities were neither suspended nor we have defaulted with any stock exchange authority with whom we are registered in last five years. However SEBI, Exchanges and Depositories have conducted the routine inspection and based on their observations have issued advise/warning/ deficiency letters/ or levied minor penalty on PSL for certain operational deviations. We have not been debarred from doing business by any Stock Exchange/ SEBI or any other authorities; nor has our certificate of registration been cancelled by SEBI at any point of time.

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This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions.

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We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Peerless Securities Ltd, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance.

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Telephone No.: 033 4050 2700, Fax No.: 033 2243 6941. Website: www.peerlesssec.co.in

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mailto:[email protected]

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Peerless Securities Limited Registered Office: 1, Chowringhee Square, 2nd Floor, Kolkata- 700 069 Phone: +91-33-4050-2700/6450-2002/2243-5942, Fax: +91-33-2243 6941 Institutional Office: 11-A, Mittal Towers, 1st floor, Nariman Point, Mumbai – 400 021 Phone: +91-22-2284 1411, 22-6630 3810, Fax: +91-22-2284 1316

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SEBI Registration Number as Research Analyst: INH300002365

SEBI Registration Number as Research Analyst: INH300002365

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PEERLESS MASTER PICKS -MONTHLY › myadmin › monthlyRpt › Peerless... · 2018-02-05 · Indian IT and Pharma sector. Third quarter performance of Indian companies is so far is