Peak Oil and Climate Peak Oil and Climate Change – the 2 great Change – the 2 great oversights….oversights….

A History Lesson…Adapted from a presentation by Jeremy Leggett.

1930

Peak of discovery in US 48

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30

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

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010002000300040005000600070008000900010000

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USA 48

production

1956 - Hubbert predicts US production peak in 1971

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Gb

World

1965 - World peak of discovery

1973 The first oil crisis

0

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1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

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USA 48

production

1973 – US Oil Production Peaks.

1978 – The Second Oil Crisis.

1981 – Crisis over…

0200400600800

100012001400

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Gb

Middle East Rest of World

1985 – the doubts begin…

1989

Jim Hansen of NASA: “It is time to say global

warming is here.”

1989

Authoritative early warning

1990 “Race to save our world”

1992

1997 - BP quits the carbon club

1997 Kyoto

1998 – Campbell and 1998 – Campbell and Lahererre publish ‘The End Lahererre publish ‘The End of Cheap Oil’.of Cheap Oil’.

2001

AUGUST AUGUST 2003 2003 EUROPEAEUROPEAN N HEATWAVHEATWAVE E anomaly relative anomaly relative to late 19to late 19thth centurycenturyHadley Centre

2003 - Summer in the city

2004

2005

G8 in UK

2005 - Katrina

Second energy crisis 1979

to 1981

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

$80

$60

$40

$20

?

1

2

34 5

6

prices of the day

2003 prices

Pea

k oi

l

Dep

art

ure

s oC

fro

m t

he 1

96

1 –

19

90

avg

e.

Average temperatures from a range of IPCC energy scenarios short of deep

cuts in fossil fuel use

Threshold of severe danger: 2oC above pre-industrial average temperature (EU

target not to exceed)

The Impact of KyotoThe Impact of Kyoto

How will it affect the How will it affect the UK?UK?

An Increasing Problem.An Increasing Problem.

Climate change and Peak Climate change and Peak Oil.Oil.

Some Useful WebsitesSome Useful Websites

www.energybulletin.netwww.energybulletin.net

www.theoildrum.comwww.theoildrum.com

www.livingonthecusp.orgwww.livingonthecusp.org

www.powerswitch.org.ukwww.powerswitch.org.uk

www.transitionculture.orgwww.transitionculture.org