Peak Minerals v Sustainable Mining€¦ · Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? /10. Institute for Sustainable Water Resources. Sustainable Mining … • • Unlike previous mining

eng.monash.edu.au/enveng

Dr Gavin M MuddDr Gavin M Mudd##

Dr James D WardDr James D Ward Env Eng, Monash UniEnv Eng, Monash Uni

SCPES, Flinders UniSCPES, Flinders Uni

Peak Minerals v Peak Minerals v Sustainable MiningSustainable Mining

December 2008December 200833rdrd

Int. Conf. on Sustainability Engineering & Science, Int. Conf. on Sustainability Engineering & Science,

Auckland, New ZealandAuckland, New Zealand

3rd Int Conf on Sustainability Eng/Sci : Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? / 2Institute for Sustainable Water Resources

Loy Yang brown coal mine, AustraliaLoy Yang brown coal mine, Australia


Courtesy: Nicholson Cartoons (www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au)


Sustainable Mining v Peak MineralsSustainable Mining v Peak Minerals??

•• Mining a Mining a ‘‘finitefinite’’

mineral resources is almost mineral resources is almost universally accepted as universally accepted as ‘‘unsustainableunsustainable’’::

–– yet mineral & metal production is bigger today yet mineral & metal production is bigger today than ever and still growingthan ever and still growing

•• Typically two dominant views Typically two dominant views ––

““Limits to Limits to GrowthGrowth””

(ie. unsustainable) or (ie. unsustainable) or ““technologytechnology--

marketsmarkets--demand = solutionsdemand = solutions””

((‘‘sustainablesustainable’’))•• Easy to find good evidence for both sides Easy to find good evidence for both sides ……

But what about But what about ‘‘PEAK OILPEAK OIL’’

→→““PEAK MINERALSPEAK MINERALS””

too ?too ?


PEAK OILPEAK OIL

……

‘‘101101’’

•• Widespread debate about Widespread debate about ‘‘Peak OilPeak Oil’’::–– will it occur, has it occurred, if not when, or will it occur, has it occurred, if not when, or

never never ……•• M King Hubbert first applied systematic M King Hubbert first applied systematic

analyses of oil production to US mainland analyses of oil production to US mainland in the 1950in the 1950’’s s ––

& (correctly) predicted & (correctly) predicted

production would peak around 1970production would peak around 1970•• Based on simple assumptions of a finite Based on simple assumptions of a finite

resource and all oil wells following a basic resource and all oil wells following a basic bell curve : bell curve : cumulative country = samecumulative country = same


HubbertHubbert’’s (in)s (in)‘‘famousfamous’’

1956 Curve1956 Curve

•• HubbertHubbert’’s 1956 prediction of mainland US oil s 1956 prediction of mainland US oil production, including historical dataproduction, including historical data

•• Some key assumptions Some key assumptions ……

but assumes but assumes ““finitefinite””

oil oil


0

60

120

180

240

300

360

420

1825 1840 1855 1870 1885 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005

Ann

ual P

rodu

ctio

n (C

oal,

Fe o

re, B

auxi

te, D

iam

onds

, Au,

U)

0

350

700

1,050

1,400

1,750

2,100

2,450

Ann

ual P

rodu

ctio

n (C

u, P

b-Zn

-Ag,

Ni)

Black Coal (Mt) Brown Coal (Mt)

Iron Ore (Mt) Bauxite (Mt)

Gold (t) Uranium (kt U3O8)

Diamonds (Mcarats) Copper (kt)

Lead (kt) Zinc (kt)

Silver (kg) Nickel (kt)

(kt U3O8)

Production Production Production Production Production Production ……


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1840 1855 1870 1885 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005

Ore

Gra

des

(Cu,

Pb,

Zn,

Au,

Ni,

U, D

iam

onds

)

0

325

650

975

1,300

1,625

1,950

2,275

2,600

Ore

Gra

de (A

g)

Copper (%Cu)

Gold (g/t)

Lead (%Pb)

Zinc (%Zn)

Uranium (kg/t U3O8)

Nickel (%Ni)

Diamonds (carats/t)

Silver (g/t)

(kg/t U3O8)

(Ag, 1884 - 3,506 g/t)

Trends in Ore Grades Trends in Ore Grades ……

↓↓

↓↓

↓↓

↓↓


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Econ

omic

Res

ourc

es

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Econ

omic

Res

ourc

es (U

onl

y)

Black Coal (Gt) Brown Coal (Gt)

Iron Ore (Gt) Bauxite (Gt)

Copper (Mt) Gold (kt)

Nickel (Mt) Lead (Mt)

Zinc (Mt) Uranium (Mt (Mt U3O8)

Trends in Economic Resources Trends in Economic Resources ……


Sustainable Mining Sustainable Mining ……

•• Unlike previous mining booms, the current Unlike previous mining booms, the current boom is not only unprecedented in scale boom is not only unprecedented in scale but is also claimed to be but is also claimed to be ‘‘sustainablesustainable’’

•• But can we assume the patterns of the But can we assume the patterns of the past will continue into the future past will continue into the future –––– ieie. can mining a . can mining a ‘‘finitefinite’’

resource ever resource ever

troollytroolly

be be ‘‘sustainablesustainable’’

????????•• Ultimately, the world may not run out of Ultimately, the world may not run out of

mineral/metal resources mineral/metal resources ––

but energy, but energy, water, wastes etc. will lead to limits water, wastes etc. will lead to limits ……


Sustainable Mining Sustainable Mining ……Saudi’s Ahmed Zaki Yamani:

“The Stone Age came to an end not for the lack of stones and the oil age will end, but

not for the lack of oil”(Yamani was Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister from 1962 to 1986)


Peak Minerals v Sustainability LimitsPeak Minerals v Sustainability Limits

•• Given the urgent multiple prongs of Given the urgent multiple prongs of development, population, climate change development, population, climate change and environmental degradation, it is clear and environmental degradation, it is clear that the patterns of the past are not that the patterns of the past are not sustainable into the future sustainable into the future ……

•• But how do we combine bell curves & But how do we combine bell curves & sustainability limits ?sustainability limits ?

•• Through linking energy, water & costs to Through linking energy, water & costs to mineral production, we can develop mineral production, we can develop scenarios for the future mining industry scenarios for the future mining industry ……


Hubbert Peak Curves: Au & CuHubbert Peak Curves: Au & Cu

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1825 1875 1925 1975 2025 2075 2125 2175

Ann

ual G

old

Prod

uctio

n (t

Au)

Actual

Modelled

AUSTRALIA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1825 1875 1925 1975 2025 2075 2125 2175

Ann

ual G

old

Prod

uctio

n (t

Au)

Actual

Modelled

CANADA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1825 1875 1925 1975 2025 2075 2125 2175

Ann

ual G

old

Prod

uctio

n (t

Au)

Actual

Modelled

USA

GOLDGOLD????

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

2.4

1825 1875 1925 1975 2025 2075 2125 2175

Ann

ual C

oppe

r Pro

duct

ion

(kt C

u)

Actual

Modelled

USA

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

2.4

1825 1875 1925 1975 2025 2075 2125 2175

Ann

ual C

oppe

r Pro

duct

ion

(kt C

u)

Actual

ModelledAUSTRALIA

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

2.4

1825 1875 1925 1975 2025 2075 2125 2175

Ann

ual C

oppe

r Pro

duct

ion

(kt C

u)

Actual

Modelled

CANADA

COPPERCOPPERok?ok?


Gold: COGold: CO22

v Miningv Mining

•• As gold ore grades decline, there is an As gold ore grades decline, there is an increasing environmental cost (GJ, COincreasing environmental cost (GJ, CO22

, , ……))

y = 156.27x-0.2793

R2 = 0.1493

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 10 20 30 40 50

Ore Grade (g/t Au)

Uni

t Ene

rgy

Cos

ts (G

J/kg

Au)

Note, excludes points:(82.39, 21.9; 77.1, 22.9)

(0.64, 1,075.6; 5.3; 630.6)

y = 15.591x-0.4379

R2 = 0.2248

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 10 20 30 40 50

Ore Grade (g/t Au)

Uni

t Gre

enho

use

Emis

sion

s (k

g C

O2/k

g A

u)

Note, excludes points:(82.39, 0.2; 77.1, 0.2)(0.64, 74.6; 2.3; 64.3)


Mining Susty Peaks v Troughs Mining Susty Peaks v Troughs ……

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Ore

Gra

de; U

nit a

nd T

otal

CO

2 Em

issi

ons

0

50

100

150

200

250

Proj

ecte

d A

nnua

l Gol

d Pr

oduc

tion

(t A

u)

CO2-Limited FutureGold Production

(t Au)

Unit CO2 Emissions(t CO2/kg Au)

Total CO2 Emissions (Mt CO2)(Constant Production)

Ore Grade (g/t)

Hubbert-basedFuture Gold Production

(t Au)


Ongoing Thoughts Ongoing Thoughts ……

(TI&B?)(TI&B?)

•• For many countries, there remains For many countries, there remains reasonably abundant mineral resources, reasonably abundant mineral resources, though of gradually declining qualitythough of gradually declining quality

•• To meet future global development To meet future global development demands, mining looks set to continue to demands, mining looks set to continue to grow for some timegrow for some time

•• Some key assumptions vary between Some key assumptions vary between ‘‘Peak OilPeak Oil’’

and and ‘‘Peak MineralsPeak Minerals’’

––

particularly particularly

between minerals & metals between minerals & metals ……•• Future impacts of climate change Future impacts of climate change ……

??????


AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

•• Numerous Colleagues (Monash, Zaragoza, Numerous Colleagues (Monash, Zaragoza, UNSW, UNSW, NGONGO’’ss, government, industry, , government, industry, ……))

•• Mineral Policy Institute (MPI)Mineral Policy Institute (MPI)•• Vicky Vicky ––

the legend the legend ––

AdinAdin

Documents

Peak Minerals v Sustainable Mining€¦ · Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? /10. Institute for Sustainable Water Resources. Sustainable Mining … • • Unlike previous mining