Financial Risk Management - NYU Stern School of …pages.stern.nyu.edu/~igiddy/corpfin/Singapore/simrisk.pdfCopyright ©2001 Ian H. Giddy giddy.org Financial Risk Management -26 Market

Giddy/SIM Financial Risk Management/1

Prof. Ian GiddyNew York University

Financial Risk Management

SIM/NYUThe Job of the CFO

Copyright ©2001 Ian H. Giddy Financial Risk Management -5giddy.org

Risk Management is a Process

Corporate Risk Management

DefineDefine MeasureMeasure ManageManage MonitorMonitor



Financial Risk Management

l Why does it matter?

l Why and when should we hedge?

l What should we hedge? How should we gauge exposure?

l Financial risk management must be tied to the company’s business


The Case For Hedging

l Company has special information

l Company has special market access

l Secure cash for investment opportunities

l Reduce potential costs of financial distress, increase debt capacity, and reduce expected taxes

Since currency matching reduces the probability of financial distress, it allows the firm to have greater leverage and therefore a greater tax shield.



VALUE OF THE FIRM

ALL-EQUITY VALUE

DEBTRATIO

HEDGING CANREDUCE COSTS OF FINANCIALDISTRESS

Optimal Capital Structure


Negativenet worth

Positivenet worth

Distribution of net worth withhedging

Distribution of net worthwithout hedging (or withgreater exchange ratevolatility)

Profile of return to creditors

Costs of bankruptcy to creditors

Net worth of the firm

+

-

Hedging, Valuation, Taxes and Financial Distress



When Should Firms Hedge?

Business risk

Financial risk


Which Firms Should Hedge?

Characteristics of firms for which financial stress is especially costly:

l Firms with:uProducts that require after-sale servicinguProducts whose quality is difficult to determine in

advanceuProducts with high switching costsuProducts that rely on third-party servicing

l And firms that have:uHigh-growth opportunitiesu Intangible assets like firm-specific human capitaluLarge excess tax deductions



What Exposure Should Firms Hedge?

lCurrency riskuTransactions

uTranslation exposure

uEconomic exposure

uInterest Rate RiskuCommodity Price Risk


Measuring Market Exposure

l Defining corporate exposure:

“How will my company’s value be affected by market price fluctuations?”

l Types of exposureuTransactions

uBalance sheet/portfolio

uEconomic

l A risk management framework



How Effective is My Company’s Risk Management?

l Don’t measure risk

l No linkage of risk to value

l No effort to anticipate

l Lack of business risk policy

l Fragmented effort

l Narrow focus

l Poor risk communications

l Lack of an integrated risk assessment framework

Warning Signs:


Formalize Risk Management Policy and Control Framework



• Develop an outline of a policy statement, or recommend improvements to existing document

• Benchmark controls versus best practice using the Group of Thirty Recommendations, Treasury Management Association Guidelines, or accumulated knowledge of appropriate practices

• Assess centralization issues related to financial risk management and treasury design



Identification and Definition of Financial Exposures

Goal: To identify significant financial risk exposures and prioritize them in a manner consistent with management's desired risk profile.

Translation Exposure, Transaction Exposure, and

Economic Exposure

• Long-term versus short-term exposure

• Intracompany versus third party exposure

• Cross currency exposure

• Competitive exposures

Absolute Rate Risk, Convexity, Basis or

Correlation Risk

Currency Interest Rate

• Short-term liquidity portfolio

• Investment portfolio

• Capital markets borrowing

• Leasing portfolio

Price Risk, Basis or Correlation Risk

Commodity

• Procurement

• Inventory

• Sales elasticity


Market Risks: Definitions

Three Views ofMarket Price Risk:

lTransactions

lBalance Sheet/Portfolio

lEconomic risk.



Market Risks: Definitions


lTransactions

lBalance Sheet/Portfolio

lEconomic risk.

TransactionsExposure

TransactionsExposure

PortfolioExposure

PortfolioExposure

EconomicExposure

EconomicExposure


Transactions Exposure

l Transactions exposure results from particular transactions such as an export where a known cash flow in a given currency will take place at a certain dateuExample: If Nokia invoices a NTT of Japan in

Japanese yen for a celphone shipment then the firm has Japanese yen exposure and can hedge this by borrowing yen.

uThis kind of exposure is readily hedgableusing forwards, futures or debt

Transactions

Exposure

Transactions

Exposure

Portfolio

Exposure

Portfolio

ExposureEconomic

Exposure

Economic

Exposure



But Transactions Exposure Can be Misleading...

l Austin Computer purchases notebook computers in Taiwan for sale in the US.

l Austin must pay in NT$.

l Should it hedge its anticipated payments for 1996?

Transactions

Exposure

Transactions

Exposure

Portfolio

Exposure

Portfolio

ExposureEconomic

Exposure

Economic

Exposure


Austin Computer

NT$

Transactions

Exposure

Transactions

Exposure

Portfolio

Exposure

Portfolio

ExposureEconomic

Exposure

Economic

Exposure



Interest Rate Risk:Portfolio

l Portfolio risk: interest rate fluctuations can affect the value of a bond investment portfolio

l Bond price fluctuations will affect the balance sheet

l Can be hedged, using duration as a risk/sensitivity measurement tool

l Can be hedged with futures, bond options, and swaps.

Transactions

Exposure

Transactions

Exposure

Portfolio

Exposure

Portfolio

ExposureEconomic

Exposure

Economic

Exposure


Pepsico Pension

Assets (each $10m):u1-year E$ depositu5-year, 6% T-note

D=4.6u10-year Strip

Pension liabilities:u$10m 3 yearsu$10m 5 yearsu$10m 7 years

lWhat is Pepsico pension fund’s risk? uDuration of the assets (+ve)

uDuration of the liabilities (-ve)

uNet duration is the risk to be hedged!

Transactions

Exposure

Transactions

Exposure

Portfolio

Exposure

Portfolio

ExposureEconomic

Exposure

Economic

Exposure



Value at Risk: SantosBank

Asset and liability positions for a Brazilian bank’s New York branch.

What risk does it face?

INSTRUMENTSANTOSBANK

POSITIONS

30 day ($1,250,000)

90 day ($100,000)

180 day $450,000

1 yr $120,000

2 yr $120,000

3 yr $120,000

4 yr $1,120,000

5 yr $0

7 yr $0

9 yr $0

10 yr ($420,000)

15 yr $0

NET $160,000

TOTAL $3,700,000

Transactions

Exposure

Transactions

Exposure

Portfolio

Exposure

Portfolio

ExposureEconomic

Exposure

Economic

Exposure


BIS: Minimize Value at RiskTransactions

Exposure

Transactions

Exposure

Portfolio

Exposure

Portfolio

ExposureEconomic

Exposure

Economic

Exposure

Mean

Value-at-RiskValue-at-Risk

INSTRUMENTSANTOSBANK

POSITIONS

30 day ($1,250,000)

90 day ($100,000)

180 day $450,000

1 yr $120,000

2 yr $120,000

3 yr $120,000

4 yr $1,120,000

5 yr $0

7 yr $0

9 yr $0

10 yr ($420,000)

15 yr $0

NET $160,000

TOTAL $3,700,000

+

=



Market Price Risk: Economic

lEconomic risk arises from the real business risk of the company, insofar as it is tied to market interest rates, FX, commodity prices

lIt affects the shareholder value, but may be difficult to quantify

lHedging may require tailored solutions

Transactions

Exposure

Transactions

Exposure

Portfolio

Exposure

Portfolio

ExposureEconomic

Exposure

Economic

Exposure


Inmet Mining Corp.

l In 1994 Canadian mining companyInmet bought 48% of Bougrine, a lead & zinc mine in Tunisia. Inmet had to borrow $33 million at a floating rate. Should it hedge its cost of funds?

l Answer: Business exposure is to lead & zinc prices (mine shutdown in Oct 96 because of low zinc prices)

l Hedge with digital option linking cost of funds to lead & zinc prices



Market Price Risks: Summary


lTransactions - lock in forward rate

lPortfoliosuAvoid duration mismatching

l Minimize Value at Risk

lEconomic risk - business sensitivity to market prices.

Transactions

Exposure

Transactions

Exposure

Portfolio

Exposure

Portfolio

ExposureEconomic

Exposure

Economic

Exposure


Volatility in Cashflow49%

Balance Sheet Accounts1%

Volatility in Earnings

42%

Market Value of the Firm8%

“Most Important” Objective InUsing Derivatives To Hedge

CIBC Wood Gundy/Wharton 1995 End-User Survey

“Most Important” Objective In Using Derivatives To Hedge



Next Step: Analyze Current Exposure Measurement Techniques

Precision of the dataPrecision of the data

Time horizon of the projections

Frequency of reporting

•Current trade flow data

•Portfolio system reports

•Accounting information

•Budgeted trade flow data

•Pricing practices

Risk Information Sources:

Quantification Adequacy


Corporate Exposure Information Sources

Current trade flow data

Portfolio system reports

Accounting information

Budgeted trade flow data

Economic exposure estimates

Hard

Soft

ExposureDatabase



Exposure Database: Example

ExposureDatabase


From Data to Analysis

ExposureDatabase

Exposure Measurement System



A Management-Friendly Report

l An example is FourFifteen™, named after J.P. Morgan's market risk report produced at 4:15 p.m. each day.

l The "4:15 Report," a single sheet of paper, summarizes the Daily Earnings at Risk for J.P. Morgan worldwide.

n nn Portfolio Risk Simulation

n nn USD Base. Vols. & correls. as of May 04, 1995.

n nn AUDn nn BEFn nn CADn nn DKKn nn FFRn nn DEMn nn ITLn nn JPYn nn NLGn nn ESBn nn SEKn nn CHFn nn GBPn nn XEUn nn USDn nn Total

n nn 1 Mon nn 15n nn 22 n nn 37

n nn 3 Mon nn - 200n nn 20n nn - 30 n nn 160n nn - 50

n nn 6 Mon nn 25 n nn - 5n nn 20

n nn 12 Mo n nn - 105n nn - 105

n nn 2 Yr n nn 0

n nn 3 Yr n nn 0

n nn 4 Yr n nn 0

n nn 5 Yr n nn 0

n nn 7 Yr n nn 0

n nn 9 Yr n nn 0

n nn 10 Yr n nn 0

n nn 15 Yr n nn 0

n nn 20 Yr n nn 0

n nn 30 Yr n nn 0

n nn Equity n nn 0

n nn Impliedn nn - 196.1n nn 59n nn 22n nn - 29 n nn 54n nn - 145

n nn Spotn nn 23 n nn 23

n nn Netn nn - 196.1n nn 82n nn 22n nn - 29 n nn - 122

n nn Int.n nn 502n nn 262n nn 5n nn 139 n nn 400n nn 740

n nn Eq.

n nn Fxn nn 5,048n nn 4265n nn 1383n nn 1820 n nn 8516

n nn divers.n nn - 200n nn - 347n nn - 6n nn - 83 n nn - 451

n nn Netn nn 5,350n nn 4181n nn 1383n nn 1876 n nn 400n nn 8805

nn

nR

ISK

n

nn

($00

0)

n nn RiskMetricsª

nn

nG

ov'

tB

on

ds

Zer

oC

ash

flo

w

n nn FX


Exposure Report: Example

Portfolio Risk SimulationUSD Base. Vols. & correls. as of May 04, 1995.

AUD BEF CAD DKK FFR DEM ITL JPY NLG ESB SEK CHF GBP XEU USD Total

1 Mo 15 22 37

3 Mo -200 20 -30 160 - 50

6 Mo 25 -5 20

12 Mo -105 - 105

2 Yr 0

3 Yr 0

4 Yr 0

5 Yr 0

7 Yr 0

9 Yr 010 Yr 0

15 Yr 0

20 Yr 030 Yr 0

Equity 0

Implied - 196.1 59 22 -29 54 -145Spot 23 23

Net - 196.1 82 22 -29 -122

Int. 502 262 5 139 400 740

Eq.

Fx 5,048 4265 1383 1820 8516divers. -200 -347 -6 -83 -451

Net 5,350 4181 1383 1876 400 8805

RIS

K (

$000

)

RiskMetricsª

Gov

't B

onds

Zer

o C

ashf

low

FX



Market Risk Measurement

VolumetricVolumetric Duration/ Duration/ PVof01PVof01

Option Option Sensitivity Sensitivity MeasuresMeasures

SimulationsSimulationsValueValue

atatRiskRisk

• Notional Amounts

• Linear risk measures

• Swap/ bond equivalents

• Non-linear risk measures

• Delta, gamma,vega, theta, rho

• No aggregation of risk measures across asset classes or instruments

• Limited market scenarios that could include market correlations

• Reprice portfolio• Parallel and non-

parallel curve shifts

• Aggregate portfolio risk per scenario

• Distribution of market moves and portfolio values

• Includes market correlations

• Reprice portfolio• Aggregate risk

measures within confidence interval

Where are we now? Where do we need to be?


An Overview of Corporate VAR

Mean

Estimates of Cash Flow Distribution

• Volatilities• Correlations

Base rates/ Currency market conditions

Historical rates/ Discrete scenarios

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

Model 4

Interest Rates

Currencies

Equities

Commodities Impact on Earnings

Business 2

Business 1

Business 3

Transactional Database

Projected Revenues

Projected Operating Costs

PortfolioDatabase



Analyze Exposure Management Activities

Evaluate alternative hedging techniques

Strategic alignment

•Multicurrency borrowing/ investing, currency of invoice, & commercially-based hedging techniques

•Financial instruments such as forwards, futures, swaps and options

•Expected and out-of-pocket costs, benefits and risks of potential strategies; competitors’ actions

•Accordance with overall corporate policy and acceptable from an accounting and regulatory standpoint, if applicable

Cost/benefit analysis

Investigate opportunities for natural offsets


Corporate Exposure Management:Match Tools to Risks

Current trade flow data

Portfolio system reports

Accounting information

Budgeted trade flow data

Economic exposure estimates

Hard

Soft

Inflexible, committed

Flexible, optional



ForwardsFutures Swaps OTC

Options ExchangeOptions

Struct.Der. Hybrid

Debt

Equity

Commodity

Interest Rates

Foreign Exchange

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Source ofExposure

Type of Transaction1995 CIBC/Wharton End-User Survey

Most-Used InstrumentsHedge Identifiable Exposure


11% 12%6%

61%

48%

33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Alter theTiming ofHedges

Alter theSize ofHedges

ActivelyTake

Positions

Sometimes

Frequently

Wharton/ CIBC Wood Gundy 1995 End-User Survey:Frequency With Which a “Market View Impacts FX Derivatives Transactions

Market Views Impact Corporate FX Hedging Decisions



Sources of Corporate Financial Risk

Uncertain Markets

UncertainExposures

MistakenViews

Wrong Risk Measurement Methods

Risk!


Monitoring and Control



• Monitoring implies performance measurement

• Performance measurement is the science of attribution

• Performance measurement requires a benchmark

• Surprises require reassessment and response

Uncertain Markets

UncertainExposures

MistakenViewsRisk!

Wrong methods



Evaluate Management Reporting and Risk Management Monitoring Process

Senior Management

Independent Risk Management/ Internal Audit

Exposure Information

Financial Product Information

Limits & Benchmarks

Management reporting and focused performance measurement are necessary to identify problems with the current risk management strategies


Summary: Corporate Market Risk Management is a Process





Ian Giddy

Ian H. GiddyNYU Stern School of Business

44 West 4th Street, New York, NY 10012

Tel 212-998-0332; Fax 212-995-4233

[email protected]

http://www.giddy.org

Documents

Financial Risk Management - NYU Stern School of …pages.stern.nyu.edu/~igiddy/corpfin/Singapore/simrisk.pdfCopyright ©2001 Ian H. Giddy giddy.org Financial Risk Management -26 Market