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Homework 10
Real-world Externalities Noise, pirating music CDs, blocking sunlight of n
eighbors, land price near a new railway Recycling may be positive externalities to future g
eneration Studying with highly motivated friends
Kreps 14.1
(a) commute time via the bridge = 30 + nB/20k = commute time via the tunnel = 40 + (400k - nB)/
5000 <=> nB = 360,000 nT = 40,000
30 + nB/20k = 48 minutes (b) total commute time = nB ·48 + nT · 48 = 400
k · 48 =19.2 million minutes
14.1 (c )
Minimize nB (30 +nB/20k) + (400k - nB) (40 + (400k - nB)/5000)
By differentiation -170 + nB/2000 = 0 n* B = 340,000 n*T = 60,000
Commute time Bridge 30 + 340k/20k =47 min. Tunnel 40 + 60k/5k =52 min.
(d) impose toll of 0.5 for the bridge
Kreps, 15.2
Jo Jack Jim
u(40k) 1 212.1320344 300
u(0) 0.49 70.71067812 223.6067977
EU 0.6175 106.0660172 242.7050983
7500 for sure 0.65 111.8033989 239.7915762
CE around 6000 6250 8905.764747
EU approach
Jo: EU from the gamble = 0.25 ·1 + 0.75 · 0.49 = 0.615
Utility from sure $7500 ≈ 0.65 Jack: EU =0.25 √45,000 + 0.74 √5000 ≈ 106.066 Utility from sure $7500 = √12500 ≈111.68 Jim: EU = 0.25 √90,000 + 0.75 √50,000 ≈242.705 Utility from sure $7500 = √57500 ≈239.79
Solving for Certainty Equivalent Jack x + 5000 = (106.066) => CE ≈ 6250 < 7500 Jim x + 50,000 = (242.705) => CE ≈ 8905>7500
2
2
Moral Hazard
Insured factory owner: will she take care of dangerous things well?
Workers: will they work hard when they are not supervised?
Partnership: will partners work hard to increase the joint profit?
Actions of one party affects the welfare of others, where the interests of the parties are not the same
Incentives
Direct financial incentives If you work hard, I pay you more
Reciprocity, reputation If you are nice to others, others will be nice to you later
Intrinsic motivation, social norm Feel proud or feel guilty for being bad
Solution 1: write a contract
Determine the “correct” action Write it in the contract
Problem How can we monitor/measure/prove?
Solution 2: Put all responsibility on the person who takes actions
No insurance Tie payment to the worker’s sales
Problem No risk sharing Simultaneous moral hazard
Fundamental problems with incentives
The desired actions cannot be specified contractually Measurement, monitoring, enforceability
Even if the desired action is taken, there is uncertainty about the consequences
Loading the full consequences on the party taking actions is undesirable Could share the risk and improve all
Salesperson Compensation
Sale --> you (employer) get $60,000 No sale -->you get $0 Salesperson’s choices disutility
Kills himself: sale with prob. 0.5 40 Works hard: sale with prob. 0.4 20 Not hard: sale with prob. 0.25 10 Loafs: sale with prob. 0.05 0
S’s utility √wage - disutility Outside opportunity: $10,000 w/ no disutility
Employer must give at least utility 100 Employer: risk neutral
If you can specify an effort level in a contract
“S chooses effort level A and be paid X if a sale is made and Y if not”
Efficient risk sharing: X = Y No effort is ok: √w - 0 ≥100 <=> w = $10,000
Employer’s profit = (0.05)(60,000) - 10,000 = - 7000 Let him try: √w - 10 ≥100 <=> w = $12,100
Profit = (0.25)(60,000) - 12,100 = 2900
Work hard: √w - 20 ≥100 <=> w = 14,400 Profit = (0.4) (60,000) - 14,400 = 9600
Kill himself: √w - 40 ≥100 <=> w = 19,600 Profit = (0.5)(60,000) - 19,600 = 10,400
Optimal action for the employer = killing level
If effort is not contractable
If S is risk neutral, put all risk on him But S is risk averse… Shall the employer take all risk?
No! Then S will not make any effort
C.f: pride, reputation, promotion…
Try a bonus contract Base wage = 9500 Bonus = 15,000 if and only if a sale is made
quit100
loaf 0.95 √9500 + 0.05 √ 245,000 = 100.421
0.75 √9500 + 0.25 √ 245,000 -10= 102.232try
hard
kills0.6√9500 + 0.4 √ 245,000 - 20= 101.091
0.5 √9500 + 0.5 √ 245,000 - 40= 86.996
For this bonus contract
Salesperson will try but not hard Profit = 0.25 · 60,000 - 9500 - 0.25 · 15,000 = 1750
Trade-off Efficient risk sharing => put risk on the employer Motivation => tie the wage to outcomes (risky) Optimal solution: compromise of these
To find “optimal” contract
That maximizes the profit Step 1: For each of possible effort level (action),
what is the cheapest way to motivate him to do? Step 2: Which effort level (with the cheapest contr
act) maximizes your profit?
Problem 19.1: Let’s solve! Find the cheapest (wage, bonus) to induce “try but not ha
rd” level of effort b= utility from base wage x= utility from base wage + bonus
quit100
loaf 0.95 b + 0.05 x
0.75 b + 0.25 x -10try
hard
kills0.6 b + 0.4 x - 20
0.5 b + 0.5 x - 40
Only two binding constraints
To maximize your profit we only need to satisfy Participation constraint 0.75 b + 0.25 x - 10 = 100
> would also work, but why pay more? Incentive constraint (not to choose easier action) 0.75 b + 0.25 x - 10 = 0.95 b + 0.05 x
Check later that other effort levels are not better
Solution b=97.5, x=147.5 => base wage =9506.25, bonus = 12,250 0.5 b + 0.5 x - 40 < 0.6 b + 0.4 x - 20 < 0.75 b + 0.25 x
- 10 ok Your profit 0.25 (60,000 -21,756.25) + 0.75 (- 95
06.25) = 2431.25
To “induce”? loafing
Participation constraint only No need to give him a bonus Base wage = 10,000 bonus =0 Your profit = 0.05· 60000 - 10000 = -7000
To induce hard work
Participation constraint 0.6 b + 0.4 x - 20 = 100 Incentive constraint 0.6 b + 0.4 x - 20 = 0.75 b + 0.25 x - 10
Check others of course Solution: b = 93.33.., x = 160 Base wage = 8711.05, bonus = 16,889 Your profit = 8533.37
To induce killing level
Participation constraint 0.5 b + 0.5 x - 40 = 100 Incentive constraint 0.5 b + 0.5 x - 40 = 0.6 b + 0.4 x - 20 =>b = 40, x = 240 Base wage = 1600, bonus = 56,000 Your profit = 400
Therefore…
induced action base wage bonus profit
loaf 10000 0 -7,000
try but not hard 9506.25 12,250 2431.25
hard work 8711.05 16,889 8533.37
killing level 1600 56,000 400
If the action can be specified in a contract,killing level was optimal and your profit = 10,400
Suggested Exercises
Kreps, Problem 19.3
Answers to the above will be posted in my website on Friday 15th For a limited time, probably until early August
You can pick up your homework 11 anytime at my office from 15th (I hope). Answers are posted asap.
Summary of the Course
Optimization Marginal X, supply, demand, price discrimination …
Market equilibrium Efficiency, surplus Externalities Risk and expected utility Hidden information (Adverse selection) Moral hazard