PBIC-Pakistan Credit Strategy 2011

8/7/2019 PBIC-Pakistan Credit Strategy 2011

1/22

A Testing Year Ahead

Highlights of the Report

Economy1

Banking3

Textile 5

Cement7

Power9

Fertilizer11

Telecommunication13

Oil15

Pharmaceutical18

Pakistan Credit Strategy

January 2011

Treasury Group, Pak Brunei Investment Company


2/22

A Testing Year Ahead

Highlights

Economy Prospect of growth is grim. FY10 fiscal deficit was already at

alarming level at PKR 929 billion (6.3% of GDP) and may cross PKR 1,100 billion

FY11. Government will continue to monetize the deficit, which, coupled wincreasing international food and oil prices, hints inflation stickiness. Moreov

government is also eyeing to tap other domestic borrowing sources, which restric

credit supply to private sector. To counter inflation, monetary policy will rema

contractionary; but limited support from fiscal policy would make its effectivene

questionable. External account has so far performed well, but it will continue to re

on remittances and debt flows. Get ready for another tough year.

Credit Strategy

Banking Banking sector TFCs are the safest investments within corporabond market. Priority should be given to banks with low net infection ratio an

higher liquid asset base. Short term commercial papers are also gooinvestment avenues

Textile Debt obligations faced by the sector is the key issue, which led tonumber of defaults last year. We recommend avoiding long term exposures

first place, but if necessary, companies export performance and sustainability

operating cash flows should form the basis for investment/financing.

Cement Sectors leveraging is the primary issue and new long teexposures should be very carefully selected. Working capital lines can

provided to the companies with improving liquidity ratios and strong spons

support.

Power Highly inelastic demand and demand-supply gap makes powproduction one of the most attractive businesses. However, inter-corporate deis the biggest problem hurting companies cash flows. We recommend taki

selective exposure. Independent Power Producers with strong sponsor suppo

can be a good option

Fertilizer Dynamics of the sector are very strong, which keeps our likenefor the sector intact. Overall, players that are current in their debt obligatio

and those having relatively benign leveraging position provides good investme

options

Telecommunication On the back of high price-based competitiosaturation in urban areas and limited potential of growth in high-end service

we do not recommend exposure in telecom

Oil Sector enjoys a highly inelastic demand. However, similar to powsector, inter-corporate debt is the major issue, therefore companies with high

liquidity are better options.

Pharmaceutical Because of the sectors inherent strengths, it shouremain in the top order in the list of our preferred investments. Compani

having good repayment history and having developed a niche market shou

remain our priority within the sector.

Here, we define Credit as Investment in Redeemable Ca ital Instruments and/or Advances


3/22

Pakistan Credit StrategyA Testing Year Ahead

Research Unit, Treasury Group

January 27, 2011

When you face one shock after another, everything seems going out of control and when short term prudence becomes more importan

than long term planning, business decisions require extreme vigilance. After enjoying a joyride until 2007, Pakistans economy has

been travelling between a narrow course of gloom and cautious optimism (chart 1). If we are not forced to find (sometimes invent!)

colorful reasons to keep ourselves happy, there are a number of factors which warrant attention.

Weak growth prospects

Prospect of growth seems grim in 2011. Large Scale Manufacturing growth has once again slipped into the negative zone (chart 2)

Extent of agriculture losses is estimated at PKR 854.8 billion, which means agriculture growth may turn out to be negative in FY11.

Increasing international input prices, power shortage and high cost of financing have created enough trouble for businesses to operate

smoothly. Private sector is also facing a stiff competition from government in domestic credit market. Most of these factors will remain

there in 2011 as well. For private sector, consolidation is becoming more important than expansion.

Fiscal anomalies

FY10 fiscal deficit was already at an alarming level at PKR 929 billion (6.3% of GDP) while flood losses are hinting that the deficit may

cross PKR 1,100 billion in FY11 (chart 3) . In the absence of required foreign funding and inherently weak tax mobilization, governmen

has been monetizing the deficit big time (chart 4). Despite being under IMF umbrella, we expect government borrowing (both from

central and commercial banks) to remain high in FY11. This is also intensified by political pressures to prevent oil price and power tarif

hikes. Transaction demand for money also seems to be increasing (chart 5), which means people are desiring to hold cash in hand.

This is partly explained by low return on deposits, and partly by high inflation expectations, which is leading to people preferring curren

consumption over future spending.

Inflation to remain sticky

Throughout 2010, inflation mostly remained untamed primarily on the back of high food inflation (chart 6). Story will not be much

different in 2011 as international food and oil prices have started rising again (chart 7). Global demand is expected to remain high given

the increase in emerging-market consumption, population growth and the impact of bio-fuels production. Moreover, increasing globa

urbanization has brought a structural shift in the form of diminishing arable land. As for Oil, a rebound in global consumption coupled

with OPEC supply constraint will keep oil prices downward sticky. Furthermore, speculators are expected to continue to invest in oil

given near-zero global interest rates and robust growth in developing economies. In addition, domestic prices also suffer from

administrative loopholes, which have proved to be uncontrollable by and large.

Where will the interest rates stop?

Discount Rate is once again on upward trajectory and market interest rates have also been following course (chart 8). In FY11, 50 bps

increase in discount rate is imminent while 100 bps increase shouldnt be surprising as well. Very tough to place a bet on SBPs likely

policy stance after June 2011; but even if monetary easing is going to take place, it will take place very slowly.

A healthy external account is not without some predicaments

Current account position has improved significantly it recorded a USD 26 million surplus during 1HFY11 compared to USD 2.5 billion

deficit same period last year thanks to continuous flow of remittances and stable exports (chart 9). Next year, however, we wil

definitely see increasing international food and oil prices, which will have their toll on our import bill. Moreover, sporadic donor funding

would keep our FX reserves dependant mostly on IMF inflows. Recent extension of IMF program may push debt repayment pressure

further into 2012, but this shouldnt be too ecstatic given a vulnerable state of income & investment flows.

But the stock market was performing!

Unfortunately, performance of Pakistan stock market is hardly reflecting true economic picture. Even more amazing is the fact that

performance of listed companies actually presents a conflicting state in some cases. For example, net profitability of major listed textile

companies depicts a multi-fold increase in FY10. However, FBS data shows that textile sector has actually contracted by 4.1%YoY in

the same year. Shaping our business decisions (beyond equity investments) based on share price performance could be a terrible

mistake.

Economy


4/22



January 27, 2011

Key Economic Projections

FY09 FY10 FY11E

GDP growth 1.20% 4.1% 1.7% - 1.9%

Headline Inflation 20.80% 11.7% 15.0%

Workers' Remittances (USD Billion) 7.8 8.9 11.1

Imports (USD Billion) 31.3 31.0 35.5

Trade Balance (USD Billion) -12.2 -11.4 -14.5

Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) 5.2% 6.3% 5.8% - 6.1%

Current Account Deficit (% of GDP) 5.7% 2.0% 3.9% - 4.2%

Chart 1: Real GDP Growth (YoY) Chart 2: Large Scale Manuf. (YoY) Chart 3: Fiscal Deficit (PKR bn)

Source: FBS Source: Ministry of Finance Source: SBP

Chart 4: Deficit Monetization (YoY) Chart 5: Currency in Circulation (YoY) Chart 6: Inflation (YoY)

Source: SBP Source: SBP Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics

Chart 7: World Inflation (YoY) Chart 8: Key Interest Rates Chart 9: External Account (USD bn)

Source: FAO, Bloomberg Source: SBP Source: SBP

-25%

-20%-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Jan-0

8

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-0

9

Sep-0

9

Jan-1

0

May-10

Sep-10

138112

156

275

224

180

223

303

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

FY09Cumulative

PKR 680billion

FY10Cumulative

PKR 929billion

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

19%

4-Ju

n-1

0

4-Ju

l-10

4-Au

g-1

0

4-S

ep-1

0

4-O

ct-10

4-N

ov-1

0

4-D

ec-1

0

12.5% 12.4%12.1% 12.2%

14.0%

13.6%13.4%

12.6%

Discou

nt

Rate

6M-

KIBOR

6M-T

Bill

Defence

Sav

ing

1-Jan-10 31-Dec-10

0

5

10

15

20

Ju

n-0

5

Dec-0

5

Ju

n-0

6

Dec-0

6

Ju

n-0

7

Dec-0

7

Ju

n-0

8

Dec-0

8

Ju

n-0

9

Dec-0

9

Ju

n-1

0

CAD TD Remit.

Figures are 12-month moving sum

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

FY01

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Jan-0

9

Apr-09

Ju

l-09

Oct-09

Jan-1

0

Apr-10

Ju

l-10

Oct-10

Head line Food

-40

10

60

110

160

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%60%

80%

Jan-0

7

Ju

n-0

7

Nov-0

7

Apr-08

Sep-0

8

Feb-0

9

Ju

l-09

Dec-0

9

Ma

-10

Oct-10

World Food Inflation (LHS)

Oil Prices (RHS)

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1-Ju

l-09

1-S

ep-0

9

1-N

ov-0

9

1-J

an-1

0

1-M

ar-10

1-M

ay-1

0

1-Ju

l-10

1-S

ep-1

0

1-N

ov-1

0

Pre-flood

Post-flood


5/22



January 27, 2011

Pakistans banking sector comprises of 48 banking companies out of

which local private banks are 25. Despite a large number of players,

market is highly concentrated with top five banks holding more than

50% of the market share (National Bank, Habib Bank, United Bank,

MCB Bank and Allied Bank). Between FY03-08 banking sector

enjoyed supernormal growth owing to higher economic productivity,

stable interest rates and healthy purchasing power of consumers thus

strong credit appetite. However, after 2008, the slowdown in

economic activities also took its toll on the banking system, especially

in the form of declining loans growth. Deterioration of borrowers

repayment capacity resulted in increased credit risk and significant

growth in Non-performing Loans (NPLs). Situation worsened further

due to the flash floods during July-August 2010, which may cause

banking sector to face ~PKR 54 billion loan losses.

According to the latest data available, both asset and deposit base

witnessed contraction on the back of higher transaction demand for

money and flow of funds towards National Savings Schemes.

Moreover, decline in equity base has resulted in a slight weakening in

capital adequacy ratio, which has come down to 13.8% in Sept-10

compared to 14.3% a year ago.

The economic slowdown and governments high credit demand has

resulted in the shift of asset mix from corporate loans to investment in

government securities & public lending. As a result, liquidity profile of

banks gradually eased off as their balance sheet composition steadilyshifted towards liquid assets, which is also evident from sectors

improved liquid assets to total deposits ratio. This, however, has

eroded the depth of the banking systems asset base and as a result,

international credit rating agency, Moodys, downgraded the local

currency deposit and financial strength ratings of the five major

Pakistani banks in December 2010. On the other hand, despite the fact

that earnings of relatively small banks came under strain, banking

sector was able to record higher ROE on the back of improved net

interest incomes.

Going forward, banking sectors profitability is expected to remain

satisfactory on the back of increase in net interest margins. However,

mid and small size banks would continue to face difficulties in raising

low cost funds. Banks are expected to keep improving their risk profile;

thus government securities will remain the favorite investment option.

Moreover, the recent enactment of SBP Amendment Bill 2010 compels

the government to bring down deficit monetization to 10% of its

revenues from current 60% during next five years. This will also

increase governments dependence on banking system in mid to long term.

BankingKey Banking Ratios

CY08YoY

CY09YoY

Sep-09

QoQ

Sep-10

QoQ

Asset Growth 8.8 15.8 0.3 (2.3)Loans Growth 18.0 2.1 (1.8) (2.0)

Deposit Growth 9.4 13.5 (1.7) (2.1)

Investments Growth (14.8) 59.9 13.1 (1.0)

Equity Growth 3.4 17.3 3.0 (1.9)

Capital Adequacy Ratio 12.2 14.0 14.3 13.8

Capital to Total Assets 10.0 10.1 10.5 9.9

Gross Infection 10.5 12.6 12.4 14.0

Net Infection 3.4 4.1 4.1 4.5

ROA (Before Tax) 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.6

ROE (Before Tax) 11.4 13.2 15.1 16.2

Liquid Assets/ Total Deposits 37.7 44.5 42.7 44.4Advances to Deposit Ratio 75.2 67.7 69.6 63.1

Source: SBP

Estimated Loan Losses due to Floods

Loan LossesTotal

PKR Million Public Private

Banks 37,252 15,109 52,361

Microfinance Sector - 2,156 2,156

Leasing - 1,333 1,333

Insurance - 1,289 1,289

Total 37,252 19,887 57,139

Source: Wrold Bank-ADB Flood Damage Need Assessment Report, Nov-10

Growth in Infected Bank Loans

Source: SBP, PBIC Research

0%1%1%2%2%

3%3%4%4%5%5%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mar-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

NPLs, PKR bn (LHS)

Net Infection Ratio (RHS)


6/22



January 27, 2011

Banking Sector: SWOT Analysis

Strengths andOpportunities

Improved capital adequacy Strong regulatory environment of SBP, thus limited risky exposures In an increasing interest rate environment, net interest margins (of especially big banks) are

expected to improve One of the highest banking spreads in the world Banks continue to consolidate their risk profile Strong liquidity profile, caused by the shift of assets composition from advances to investments

SBPs stress testing suggests that the banking system has adequate capacity to wi thstand any

extraordinary shocks in the key credit as well as market and liquidity risk factors.

Weaknesses and Threats

Rising NPLs in the backdrop of flash floods and increasing interest rates Focus on conventional products Re-pricing of the investment portfolio which is largely concentrated in risk-free government

securities in a rising interest rate environment

Credit concentration in commodity financing and in other government controlled enterprises

Credit Strategy

Banking sector TFCs are the safest investments within corporate bond market. Priority shouldbe given to banks with low net infection ratio and higher liquid asset base. Short termcommercial papers are also good investment avenues


7/22



January 27, 2011

TextilePakistan is world's fourth largest cotton producer and the third largest

consumer of the same. Cotton based textiles contribute over 60% to the

total exports, accounts for 46% of the total manufacturing, provides

employment to 38% manufacturing labor force and contributes around

8.5% to the GDP.

Last couple of years proved extremely challenging for the sector. Domestic

demand shrank at a fast pace due to increasing inflation and declining

purchasing power. Furthermore, increasing fuel cost, law & order issues,

electricity outages and increasing cost of financing created supply-side

bottlenecks. Global economic slowdown also had a significant, though

brief, impact on textile exports. However, textile exports quickly found their

feet as soon as the signs of slow economic recovery became visible in

Pakistans exporting markets and international cotton prices started rising .

Moreover, most of our textile exports are low-value added goods having

relatively inelastic demand.

Pakistans textile sector performed marvelously in FY10. Most of the

companies were able to increase their net sales while improving the gross

margins. Listed spinning, weaving and composite units registered

impressive earning growth with the spinning sector being the star

performer. Spinning sector achieved this feat on the back of increasing

cotton prices worldwide.

2011 will not be without challenges. In an increasing interest rate scenario,

companies would find it difficult to grow their businesses. Moreover, with

the stabilizing international cotton prices, cotton exports are not expected

to repeat FY10 performance. Power availability and increasing prices of

electricity will also keep hurting profit margins.

Another looming threat is governments possible withdrawal of textile

exemptions. The extension given by IMF has delayed RGST

implementation until next fiscal year. However, government is reportedly

planning to take away existing exemptions given to textile sector in order to

make up for revenue shortfall. If exemptions are withdrawn, textile sector

becomes liable to pay input tax on domestic sales as well. This will not only

strain cash flows but will also increase the prices of domestic textile goods

thereby affecting the sales of especially high value textile. Note that export-oriented companies will mostly remain sheltered against such withdrawal.

One big positive trigger will be the availability of concessions on textile

exports to EU. Pakistan requested EU to grant duty-free treatment and tariff-rate quotas for around 75 products including cotton yarn

and finished textile goods for three years. In the last meeting of Council for Trade in Goods (CTG, WTO) most of the members

expressed support for granting of waiver except India, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Peru. The next meeting of CTG is expected to be held

in late Jaunary 2011 probably with a modified package. Currently, Pakistan exports around USD 4.6 billion to EU out of which textile

exports amounts to USD 3.1 billion (68%).

Textile Sector Performance

Share inLSM

YoY Growth Pattern

FY10 3MFY11Textile 32.6% -4.1% -10.3%

Cotton yarn 17.4% -4.3% -12.5%

Cotton cloth 10.1% -0.7% -2.4%

Cotton ginned 4.5% 5.8% 0.0%

Other items 0.7% -22.3% -25.7%

Source: SBP

Monthly Textile Exports

International and Domestic Cotton Prices

Source: APTMA, Bloomberg,

Source: SBP

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1,500

3,500

5,500

7,500

9,500

FY07

FY09

Au

g-09

O

ct-09

De

c-09

Fe

b-10

Apr-10

Ju

n-10

Au

g-10

O

ct-10

De

c-10

Local Prices, PKR/Maund (LHS)

Cotlook A, USD/lbs (RHS)

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

Jan-0

7

Apr-07

Ju

l-07

Oct-07

Jan-0

8

Apr-08

Ju

l-08

Oct-08

Jan-0

9

Apr-09

Ju

l-09

Oct-09

Jan-1

0

Apr-10

Ju

l-10

Oct-10

USD mn

Trikcle down of global slump in

import demand


8/22



January 27, 2011

Textile Sector: SWOT Analysis


Most important manufacturing industry (32% share in large scale manufacturing) and highest

export revenue earner (57% of total exports)

Pakistan has a fair chance of keeping its export base intact going forward given the presence of

a significant demand-output gap in Pakistans major exporting countries and major chunk of ourexports being goods with relatively inelastic demand

Rupee depreciation provides added advantage for exporters

Possible granting of export concessions by EU

International demand recovery will trigger consumption of high value added textile goods, which

provides opportunity for some of the big market players having developed a niche market

abroad


Availability and increasing cost of electricity coupled with increasing oil prices will continue to

haunt cost effectiveness

Sector is highly leveraged with debt being the major source of financing operations. Companies

have also been facing difficulties in remaining current on their debt obligations. According to

MUFAP, Out of total seven textile TFCs currently in the market, four have been placed undernon-performing category due to debt defaults

Withdrawal of sales tax exemptions is a major threat for companies having a significant

presence in domestic market

Value added sector face a stiff competition against China, India, Bangladesh and Vietnam since

the removal of quota regime in 2005. Companies in these countries have a significant cost

advantage

Credit Strategy

Debt obligations faced by the sector is the key issue, which led to a number of defaults last year.

We recommend avoiding long term exposures at first place, but if necessary, companies export

performance and sustainability of operating cash flows should form the basis for

investment/financing.


9/22



January 27, 2011

There are 29 cement manufactures in the country (21 listed) with capacity

of producing around 45 million tons while local demand stands at around 24

million tons. The industry is geographically segmented with approximately

81% of the total capacity concentrated in the North zone. The cement

industry constitutes 4.1% of overall manufacturing sector output, contributes

3.2% in export earnings (major export markets: Afghanistan, India, Africa,

and Middle East), and contributes between 4-6% in the form of indirect

taxes to the National Exchequer. The cement industry is strategically

located in geographical proximity to limestone quarries and major markets

which are essential for commercial feasibility. It is largely unregulated and

oligopolistic in nature and All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association

(APCMA) acts as a governing body when it comes to pricing and supply

decisions. The cement industry went through a major expansionary phase

started in FY06, which led to around 11% augmentation in supply. This,

coupled with the improved access to international markets, more than

doubled cement exports in FY08.

FY10 proved to be a tough year for cement sector in terms of profitability.

Although total dispatches did recorded an increase of 9%YoY on the back of

uptick in domestic demand, the excess supply due to the increase in

production capacity caused the prices to fall significantly. Moreover, input

prices have also increased in general; particularly electricity charges that

have increased by 24%. This led to the erosion in profitability of the cement sector. On the other hand, cement sector enjoyed

considerable export growth until FY09. However, due to the expanding capacity of neighboring countries, the local cement industry was

unable to hold its ground in international market.

Going forward, we expect cement sector profitability to remain under stress. Around 39% of the production cost comprises coal, which

has been witnessing significant growth in international prices. Although post flood reconstruction activities would provide uptick in the

domestic dispatches, selling prices may increase only marginally owing to the prevailing excess supply. On the other hand, export sales

are also expected to remain under stress due to the improved supply in international markets. Overall, we expect cement sector to

record a muted growth in 2011.

International Coal Prices YoY Growth in Domestic Production

Source: Bloomberg Source: SBP

CementCement Industry

Million Ton FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10

Production 21.4 30.3 37.2 43.2 44.8

Dispatches 18.4 24.2 30.1 31.3 34.2

Local 16.9 21.0 22.3 20.5 23.5

Exports 1.5 3.2 7.8 10.8 10.7

Source: APCMA

Cement Sector Capacity Utilization

Source: APCMA

020406080

100

120140160180200

1-Dec-05

1-Apr-06

1-Aug-06

1-Dec-06

1-Apr-07

1-Aug-07

1-Dec-07

1-Apr-08

1-Aug-08

1-Dec-08

1-Apr-09

1-Aug-09

1-Dec-09

1-Apr-10

1-Aug-10

1-Dec-10

Peaked at USD 177

USD per Tonne

2nd highest at USD128

Richards Bay Coal Spot/SA-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

Oct-08

Dec-0

8

Feb-0

9

Apr-09

Ju

n-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Oct-09

Dec-0

9

Feb-1

0

Apr-10

Ju

n-1

0

Au

g-1

0

Oct-10

69%

80%

93%86%

80% 81%72%

76%

FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10


10/22



January 27, 2011

Cement Sector: SWOT Analysis


Improving global outlook provides exports to gain some ground.

Governments aim to achieve benchmark 5% real GDP growth would require heavy public

investments in the infrastructure in medium term.

Post flood reconstruction activities will also provide growth impetus, though the sluggish flow offunds may defer it

Worsening energy crisis has necessitated public investment in dams. It is expected that

government would set aside a sizeable portion of resources for construction of dams in

successive budgets, which will boost cement demand.


Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) has increased its vigilance to curb cartelization,

which has led to reduced margins in 2008. Later on, although margins recovered somewhat,

governments watchfulness remains on cartelization.

Increasing competition and capacity enhancements in the region. Plant expansions in India,

China, Iran and Middle Eastern countries by 2012 would start a war of prices and quality. Most

of these economies will also aim to increase their exports as their domestic demand is more or

less satiable at current production levels. Rupee depreciation would increase sectors input cost, as coal is imported from Indonesia and

South Africa.

International coal prices have been increasing fast and will keep profit margins in check.

Nevertheless, some normalization in coal prices may take place after mid 2011.

Sector is highly debt-driven. Increasing interest rates will keep straining companies bottom-lines

Credit Strategy

Sectors leveraging is the primary issue and new long term exposures should be very carefully

selected. Working capital lines can be provided to the companies with improving liquidity ratios

and strong sponsor support


11/22



January 27, 2011

Until early 90s, there were two major publically owned power companies

WAPDA and KESC, which were involved in Generation, Transmission and

Distribution of electricity in the country. In 1998, WAPDAs power wing was

unbundled into (a) 3 generating companies (comprising 11 of WAPDAs

generating plants) (b) 8 distribution companies (c) National Transmission

and Dispatch Company (NTDC) and (d) Pakistan Electric Power Company

(PEPCO). Moreover, Independent Power Producers, including HUBCO and

KAPCO, are also established under different power policies during 1990s.

The 1994 Power Policy helped in the induction of a number of power plants,

which resulted in surplus power in the country between 1996 and 2002. Until

FY07, country witnessed phenomenal economic growth resulting in higher

power demand from industrial, commercial and household sectors. However,

no major power generation capacity was added to the system. Performance

of transmission and distribution sectors also deteriorated due to the lack of

timely investments. In addition, exogenous factors including skyrocketing oil

prices also increased the cost of power production. As a result of these

factors, power deficit rose at a fast pace and currently stands at around

2,400-4,500MW.

There are three major sources of power generation in the country including

hydel (33%), oil (32%) and gas (31%). Electricity based on coal and nuclear

energy is also part of the system but their share is almost negligible.

Increasing prices of oil and availability of gas are the two important issues

faced by the sector. Moreover, circular debt issue still remains at large in the

power sector as the government has been dealing with the political pressure

not to pass on the increasing cost of electricity production to consumers. It is

estimated that the circular debt currently stands at around PKR 220 billion.

According to some estimates, government had to increase the power tariff

up to 65% by increasing tariff at a rate of 2% per month to deal with inter-

corporate debt. Nevertheless, this issue may stand unresolved in 2011 since

the political pressure against such hikes will remain strong.

Given the supply-demand gap, potential for private investment in the sector

is huge. GoP also has a very supportive power policy in place to encourage

private power generation. In addition, Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan

Act (2009), approved by US Senate in October 2009, also encouragespublic private partnership in energy generation projects.

PowerPower Generation Snapshot

Current Installed Capacity (MW) 19,786

Actual Generation (MW) 16,500

Demand (MW) 18,900

Gap (MW) 2,400-4,500

Expected Capacity Enhancement (MW)

2011 314

2012 876

2013 480

Source: PPIB, ADB

Sources of Power Production

Source: NEPRA

Projected Demand-Supply Gap

Source: NEPRA, PBIC Research

Oil32%

Hydro33%

Gas31%

Coal2%

Nuclear

2%

3,2353,554

2,774

4,549

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14


12/22



January 27, 2011 1

Power Sector: SWOT Analysis


Electricity is one of the commodities having almost inelastic demand

Huge demand gap in years to come, which makes investment in power sector extremely

attractive

Pakistan is endowed with a hydel potential of approximately 40,000MW (as against a mere6,500MW installed capacity), most of which lies in the Khyber Pakhtonkhwa, Northern Areas,

AJK and Punjab. However, hydel potential is still untapped due to its high setup cost and

hydrological risks.

Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) between producers and government ensures consistent

income stream for producers.

PPA also provides a hedge against exchange rate depreciation; power projects cash flow

increases with the exchange rate depreciation.

Power projects are usually considered to have an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of above 13-

14%.

Huge potential of coal-based electricity production. In developed economies including UK, USA

and Australia, coal based power generation constitutes around 65% of the total electricity

supplied


Circular debt is the biggest challenge undermining power sectors cash generation.

Pilferage and line losses are major issues for the sector. For example, line losses in only KESC

area have jumped to ~36% in FY09 after remaining stable at around 34% during last few years.

Lack of political consensus on building dams, thus undermining cheap hydel-based power

generation

Rapid depletion of gas reserves with slow progress on the availability of alternatives including

LNG.

Heavy reliance on expensive Furnace Oil (FO) based power generation

Credit Strategy

Highly inelastic demand and demand-supply gap makes power production one of the most

attractive businesses. However, inter-corporate debt is the biggest problem hurting companies

cash flows. We recommend taking selective exposure. Independent Power Producers with

strong sponsor support can be a good option


13/22



January 27, 2011 1

Agriculture sector forms the backbone of economy with strong forward and

backward linkages particularly with industrial sector. It provides

employment to approximately 45% employed labor force and contributes

21% in GDP. Pakistan fertilizer industry comprises of nine urea plants,

having a total production capacity of 5,886 thousand tones per annum.

There are three major private sector fertilizer producers operating in the

country namely (i) Fauji Fertilizer (ii) Engro Chemical Pakistan Limited (iii)

Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim. Urea plants are running at 100 percent plus

capacity utilization levels but the country is still facing shortfall in urea

supply. As a result, dependence on imports to meet the national

requirement is intact.

The country faced the worst floods to date during July-August 2010. It is

estimated that 15-20% of arable land and 14-27% of kharif crops were

affected due to floods. As a result, urea and DAP off-take declined by5%YoY and 13%YoY during July-November 2010 respectively. However,

increase in land fertility may trigger fertilizer demand beyond 2011.

Fertilizer sector not only enjoyed preferential treatment when it comes to

gas supply, but also in the form of gas subsidy. However, during October

2010, government announced gas load shedding for a period of 45 days as

compared to the previous 25-30 days under gas load management plan.

Bearing in mind the importance of gas as both fuel and feed requirements

for the production of Urea, the load shedding is expected to result in higher

cost and thereby reduced sales of fertilizer. In addition, curtailment level of

20% has been announced on the Sui network and 12% on the Mari network,

which will limit fertilizer supply going forward. After suspension of gas supply

under gas load management plan, fertiliser manufacturers were forced to

raise urea price by Rs 190 per 50 kg bag.

Global fertilizer demand will remain strong on the back of limited inventory

pileup and increasing demand from emerging markets. This will provide

room for higher international prices going forward. In the domestic markets,

urea prices will mostly be driven by the availability gas shortage. Despite

governments watchfulness, industry has a considerable pricing power owing

to the unavailability of alternative products.

FertilizerUrea Supply and Demand

Source: NFDC, PBIC Research

Fertilizer Use in the Country

000Tonnes

DomesticProduction Imports

Urea DAP Urea DAP

FY05 4,611 408 307 811

FY06 4,804 433 825 1,171

FY07 4,732 398 281 935

FY08 4,925 356 181 1,072

FY09 4,922 534 905 207

FY10 5,155 626 1,525 1,080

Source: NFDC

Urea Market Share

Source: NFDC, PBIC Research

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.57.0

7.5

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Supply DemandMillion Ton

DawoodHercules

9%

EngroCorp

19%

FFC39%

FFC BinQasim

12%

Agritech9%

Pak Arab2%

FatimaFertilizer

10%


14/22



January 27, 2011 1

Fertilizer Sector: SWOT Analysis


Pakistan is primarily an agri-based economy. Demand for fertilizer will remain strong

High capacity utilization, resulting in cost efficiencies

Fertilizer produced in Pakistan is equivalent to the international standard

The industry has a priority in gas supply as the government has dedicated some gas fields tosupply gas exclusively to fertilizer manufacturers (e.g. Mari gas field)

The manufacturers have an assured demand for the products. Even if they produce more than

the local demand it can easily be exported as Pakistan also enjoys a unique geographical

advantage (i.e. access to some potentially lucrative markets)

High pricing power of fertilizer manufacturers (recent increase in the urea prices of Rs 190/bag)

The dealer network of the industry is pretty strong and its coverage is pretty good

Zarai Taraqiati Bank Limited is providing loans within three days to farmers under the

instructions of the Government of Pakistan, which makes access to product easier


Gas shortage is one of the key issue hampering production. Gas load shedding for fertilizer

manufacturers has been increased from 25-30 days to 45 days

Mostly unskilled Labor; manufacturer has to spend a lot on training Machinery and equipment used in plants arent produced locally and high costs have to be

incurred against procurement/maintenance

Removal of subsidy on gas would result in a sharp increase in prices, as natural gas constitutes

more than 50% of total manufacturing costs

Worsening fiscal situation of the country might shift governments focus away from the fertilizer

sector in the form of reduced subsidies

Credit Strategy

Dynamics of fertilizer sector are very strong, which keeps our likeness for the sector intact

Overall, players that are current in their debt obligations and those having relatively benign

leveraging position provides good investment options


15/22



January 27, 2011 1

Telecommunication sector of Pakistan is regulated by Pakistan

Telecommunication Authority (PTA). There are three key business segments

namely Fixed Local Loop, Cellular and Wireless Local loop out of which

cellular holds by far the largest share (94%). PTCL is the major player in Fixed

Wireline while it also holds a sizeable share in Cellular segment through its

subsidiary Ufone. Cellular segment is dominated by Mobilink (33%) followed

by Telenor (24%), Ufone (19.7%) and Warid (17%).

Following the economic boom in the country, telecom sector in Pakistan also

witnessed supernormal growth during FY03-08. With the help of investor

friendly policies, foreign investment made its way into the telecom sector and

at one point (FY06), half of the total FDI came only in the telecom sector.

During FY03-08, telecom penetration in Pakistan outpaced regional

economies including India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, & Nepal. Telecom

penetration in Pakistan was 59.0% in FY08 compared to average 26.0% in

regional economies.

However since FY09, teledensity growth has slowed down considerably

owing to a number of factors including economic slump, deteriorating law and

order situation and saturation in telecom industry. Number of subscribers in

fixed line segment decreased to 3.4 million in FY10 from 3.5 million in FY09

due to the availability of other low cost options like cellular and wireless local

loop service. PTCL, which has the highest share in the fixed line segment

(96.1%), also witnessed a decline in its subscriber base due to tough

competition from other segments.

Cellular segment is also experiencing slowdown in the growth of cellular

subscriber base, as the teledensity of this segment has reached 61% in FY10

from 40% in FY07. Cellular industry also witnessed dropping Average

Revenue Per User (ARPU) till 2009. However, as companies have started

recovering their fixed costs and reducing operating expenses, ARPUs have

increased to USD2.46 in June 2010 from USD2.30 a year ago. Despite this

increase in ARPU, Pakistan is among those emerging markets that are facing

low ARPUs due to a heavy tilt towards low usage prepaid subscriptions.

One area which has shown enormous potential recently is broadband. Until

FY08, broadband was available only in three cities with total subscriber base

standing at 168,000. However, the number of broadband users has increased

to more than 900,000 in FY10. Moreover, Pakistan stands among the top ten

countries witnessing high annual broadband growth. There are around 13

broadband service providers including PTCL, Wateen, WorldCall, Witribe, and

Link Dot Net. PTCL (53%) covers half of the broadband market followed by

Wateen (21%) and WorldCall (11%). This segment offers considerable growth

opportunities considering very low penetration (0.55%). However, declining

broadband service prices may trigger mergers and acquisitions going forward.

TelecommunicationTelecom Revenues

PKR bn FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10

Cellular 133 182 212 236

Local Loop 68 64 63 61

LDI 16 22 48 47

WLL 3 3 3 3

Value Added 16 8 8 10

Total 236 279 334 358

Source: PTA

Foreign Investment in Telecom


Telecom Segmentation

Source: PTA

0

500

1000

1500

2000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FDI in Telecom, USD mn (RHS)

Share in Total FDI (LHS)

Cellular94%

FixedWire

Line4%

Wireless Local

Loop2%


16/22



January 27, 2011 1

Teledensity in Pakistan Cellular Industry ARPUs Broadband in Pakistan

Source: PTA Source: PTA Source: PTA

Telecommunication Sector: SWOT Analysis


High correlation with economic development

High degree of deregulation and investment friendly policies

Most of the players have recovered their fixed costs while operating expenses are also coming

down

WLL penetration level is very low, which provide growth opportunity. WLL requires very low

capex, which is a big plus point given the destruction of infrastructure caused by recent flash

floods

Growth in broadband is exemplary. Potential for further growth exists due to a very low

penetration level at present (0.55%)


Fierce price-based competition in Cellular and WLL segments means no operator is in a positionto improve profitability through prices

High level of saturation in urban areas

Low cellular ARPU means negligible opportunities for new entrants while muted revenue growth

for existing players

Mass concentration towards low-end cellular services like prepaid cellular subscription. Growth

in high-end services including data services would remain very slow due to low per capita

income and high inflation

Broadband penetration is mostly concentrated in urban areas. Potential for growth in rural areas

is low

With the increase in number of market players, prices of broadband services will also come

down

Credit Strategy On the back of high price-based competition, saturation in urban areas and limited potential of

growth in high-end services, we do not recommend exposure in telecom

4% 6%12%

26%

44%

59%62% 64% 64%

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

Oct-10

2.14

2.312.31

2.14

2.39

2.282.30

2.26

2.392.42

2.46

Dec-0

7

Mar-08

Ju

n-0

8

Sep-0

8

Dec-0

8

Mar-09

Ju

n-0

9

Sep-0

9

Dec-0

9

Mar-10

Ju

n-1

0 0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0

200

400600

800

1000

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

Subscribers, '000 (LHS)

Penetration (RHS)


17/22



January 27, 2011 1

Being the primary source of energy, Oil is predominantly the most important

commodity in the world. It has strong trickle down effects on almost all other

commodities and therefore, fluctuations in the price of oil have strong impact

on world trade and balance of payments. In 2010, oil prices increased by

~18% due to higher demand from Asian economies and according to Reuters,

oil is expected to reach $86 (average) a barrel next year. In addition, decline

in the oil inventories is also a major factor in the upward price movement

expected in the coming year. Previously, the Government of Pakistan was

providing subsidy on the gasoline. However, with the global increase in the oil

price in FY08 the Government started doing away with this subsidy causing

the domestic prices of gasoline to follow international price.

Oil Industry Overview

Pakistans petroleum industry is highly segmented, with each sector

performing a specific task in the supply chain, with hardly any integrated

setups spanning throughout the value chain from exploration to marketing of

oil. Exploration and Production (E&P) is a separate sector, with all E&P

companies only involved in that area. From there, the product is branched out

in to two separate streams- the refineries and the gas transmission and

distribution companies. Refineries buy the oil produced in the country as well

as import crude oil, refine and sell it to the Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs),

which then sell it to retailers. Pakistan has two integrated gas transmission

and distribution companies, which buy gas from the E&P sector. The transport

sector is by far the largest user of petroleum products, followed by power

generation, industry, agriculture and residential sector. High Speed Dieseland, Light Speed Diesel and Furnace Oil dominate the Oil consumption in the

country.

The E&P sector of Pakistan consists of four major listed companies which

include; Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC), Pakistan Petroleum

Limited (PPL), Pakistan Oil Fields (POL), and Mari Gas Company (MARI).

Currently, oil production in the country stands at 65,000 barrels per day

compared to around 55,000 barrels per day a year ago.

In FY10, Pakistans E&P sector missed the oil and gas well drilling target as

planned activities could only be completed on 38 wells as against the target

of 52. However, in the 11MFY10, the E&P sector had a success ratio of 55%

as 11 discoveries were achieved out of 20. This is well above the countrys

historical average of 29%.

There are five oil refineries currently operating in Pakistan namely; Pak-Arab

Refinery (PARCO), National Refinery Limited (NRL), Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL), Attock Refinery Limited (ARL), and Byco

Current crude oil production of the country stands at 65,000 to 67,000 barrels per day and the total capacity of the refineries stands at

287,000 barrels per day. PARCO has the highest production capacity of 100,000 barrels per day in the industry and also holds the

highest market share of 41%. Fluctuation in the oil price has declined in FY10 as compared to the last year. However, stabilization in

prices was not sufficient enough for refineries to maintain profitability; therefore they could not be able to make profits in the fuel

OilProduction of Oil in the Country

Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook, PBIC Research

Oil Reserves Position

Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook, PBIC Research

Refineries' Production

000 Tonnes FY10 FY09 % Change

JP-1 766 725 6%

JP-4 / JP-8 166 233 -29%

KEROSENE 136 175 -22%

HOBC 12 10 19%

MS 1,338 1,288 4%

HSD 3,136 3,261 -4%

LDO 77 95 -20%Furnace Oil 2,484 3,080 -19%

Total 8,114 8,866 -8%

Source: OCAC

50

55

60

65

70

75

FY00

FY01

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

'000 bbl/day

200220240260280300320340360380

F

Y00

F

Y01

F

Y02

F

Y03

F

Y04

F

Y05

F

Y06

F

Y07

F

Y08

F

Y09

F

Y10

Million bbls


18/22



January 27, 2011 1

segment of their operations. The unresolved circular debt issue has been a major problem for the past two years and continues to

hamper the liquidity position of the refineries.

Major players in the Oil Marketing Companies (OMC) sector are PSO, Shell, Caltex, and Attock Petroleum Limited (APL). These four

companies have a combined market share of 93%. Products sold in the sector include Furnace Oil, High Speed Diesel, Motor Spirit

Asphalt, Carbon Oil, Kerosene, Jet Fuel and Lubricants. Pakistan is one of the few countries where prices are regulated, yet the effect

of international price increase is passed on to the local consumers with in an average time lag of one month. This generally benefitsdownstream companies in terms of inventory gains.

Capacity of Major Oil Refineries OMCs Market Share

Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook, PBIC Research Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook, PBIC Research

PARCO

35%

NRL

23%

PRL

17%

ARL

15%

Byco

10%

PSO

69%

Shell12%

Caltex

5%

APL7%

Others

7%


19/22



January 27, 2011 1

Oil Sector: SWOT Analysis


Demand for oil products is highly inelastic. Broad consumer base makes this a very lucrative

sector.

Surge in oil prices will not have any significant short/mid term impact on demand due to limited

availability of alternative energy solutions Numerous Furnace Oil (FO) powered IPPs are coming online in 2011, which is a major

opportunity for FO sales

High success ratio (in 2010) for Oil Exploration Companies. 2011 is expected to bring positive

results in terms of new discoveries and project execution for E&P sector

E&P companies face low regulatory risk as compared to OMCs and Refineries

Consistent income stream from and increase in avenues for Naphtha exports is a plus for

Refineries.

Further growth opportunities in non-fuel segment for refineries

OMCs enjoy wide coverage networks in the country and have strong marketing plans. Bio-fuel

marketing will add to the diverse portfolio of OMCs


Lack of vertical integration in the oil sector, which undermines cost effectiveness

Inter-corporate debt is a major drag on profitability and liquidity of various companies

Regulatory risk arising from governments deliberation of streamlining domestic oil prices

High volatility in prices leads to uncertainty in future outlook for Oil sector

E&P companies were unable to explore several high potential areas due to security concerns in

the region

Incidental charges including wharfage, bank charges, handling charges etc. are nor longer the

part of ex-refinery prices, which means Oil Refineries will have to bear these costs

PKR depreciation leads to expensive imports for both Refineries and OMCs. OMCs have a high

dependency on import of major products including HSD and FO.

Increasing interest rates will make financing costly

OGRAs decision of fixation of OMC margins is a drag on profitability, especially in the backdrop

of rising oil prices. However, some OMCs (PSO, APL) will have a relatively lesser hit owing to amajor portion of their revenues coming from deregulated products

Credit Strategy

Oil sector enjoys a highly inelastic demand. However, similar to power sector, inter-corporate

debt is the major issue. Companies with relatively higher liquidity are better options. Moreover,

companies that are seeking vertical integration can also be explored.


20/22



January 27, 2011 1

There are about 600 pharmaceutical companies in Pakistan, of which 370

manufacturing units including 30 multinationals are producing drugs. The

current industry size stands at around PKR 80.1 billion of which the local

companies have 59% of the market share. Approximately 20% of Pakistan's

total consumption of pharmaceuticals depends on imported. Market potential

is good for antibiotics, vaccines, analgesics, tranquilizers, hormones, anti-

hypertensives, anti-ulcerants, cardiovascular, anti-cancer, psychiatric,

contraceptives and birth control drugs.

The pharmaceutical sector in Pakistan is fully regulated by the Government as

maximum retail price of medicine is controlled. Healthcare in Pakistan is still in

the early stages of development. According to some estimates, around 45% of

the population has limited or no access to health facilities while public

expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP stands at 1.73%, which is well

below the global average (7.14%). Widespread poverty and a weakhealthcare system underlie the poor health status of the population. The

problems of poor nutrition and sanitation are compounded by Pakistans large

and fast growing population. Other issues include the continuing prevalence

of communicable diseases, low health manpower levels and the under

utilization of primary health facilities in Pakistan.

One of the key issues facing pharmaceutical sector is weak Intellectual

Property Rights (IPR). As a signatory to the Trade-Related aspects of

Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) agreement, Pakistan had been given until

2004 to meet WTO requirements to improve patent laws. However,

enforcement of IPR protection laws has remained very weak to date; despite

the fact that government recognizes IPR protection as a key issue.

The recent flooding disaster in August 2010 would continue to further

deteriorated the health situation in the country, communicable diseases

especially water-borne ones may result in more casualties in the aftermath of

the floods.

Given the level of healthcare service penetration, demand for pharmaceutical

goods will remain intact in the long term. However, in the short term, political

uncertainty and flooding would be the key defining factors. In addition,

reconstruction activities in the country would drain government funds and in

turn limit the expenditure on health. Espicom, an international pharmaceutical

analysis firm, expects the sector to grow at a fairly high single digit CAGR

during next five years. However, it will remain one of the smallest

pharmaceutical markets in the Asia Pacific region in terms of size during the

period in question.

PharmaceuticalPharmaceuticals Production in Pakistan

FY10 FY09 %

Tablets (Million Nos) 21,059 18,984 11%

Liquids (`000' Lit) 75,331 70,233 7%

Capsules (Million Nos.) 2,153 1,873 15%

Injections (Million Nos.) 775 903 -14%

Ointments (`000' Kgs.) 1,925 1,490 29%

Galenicals (`000' Litres) 46 31 48%Source: FBS

Pharmaceutical Imports (USD million)


FDI in Pharmaceutcal Sector (USD million)


287 276

329 342354

399

477

FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10

7 6

13

3834

38

46

30

5

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10


21/22



January 27, 2011 1

Pharmaceutical Sector: SWOT Analysis


With 9.3% growth, pharmaceutical sector was one of the best performing manufacturing sectors

in FY10

Sector is inherently immune to the economic downturns. Demand for pharmaceuticals is

inelastic. Margins in the Pharmaceutical business are high in Pakistan (between 35% - 40%), which

makes the Pharmaceutical companies cash rich.

Unique geographical position of the country: Strategic position for the market access to

Afghanistan, Middle East, Africa and Asian states. Currently Pakistan exports pharmaceutical

products to more than 100 countries

Broad distribution system country-wide

The pharmaceutical industry is capable of producing a vast range of medicines (125 categories

of medicines are produced locally)

With 168 million population, consumer base is quite large. Around 45% of the population still has

very limited or no access to healthcare.

Availability of Chinese machinery which is much cheaper as compared to other countries

One of the major opportunities lies in the area of herbal medicines. Pakistan has huge

intellectual property in this area.

Default or poor repayment cases in the industry are almost negligible.

Most of the financial institutions rank Pharmaceutical within high-priority industries for credit

facilities


Highly regulated industry with the government following strict price control policies

Export base is narrow compared to other countries

Prices of Pakistani products are considerably higher than those of the Indian and the Chinese

products

Raw material for medicines is mostly imported, thus the exchange rate risk is high

Lack of research and development facilities and lack of proper quality controls and assurance

tests Limited government control on the flow of smuggled goods in and out of the country as well as

presence of counterfeit drugs in the market.

There is no proper understanding and implementation of patents and Intellectual Property Rights

(IPRs)

Credit Strategy

Because of the sectors inherent strengths, it should remain in the top order in the list of our

preferred sectors. Companies having good repayment history and having developed a niche

market should remain our priority within the sector.


22/22

Treasury Group

Ahmed Ateeq

Head of Treasury

(+92-21) 5361370-3

[email protected]

Haider Hussain

Unit Head, Research

(+92-21) 35361215-9 Ext. 141

[email protected]

Zubair Humayun

Analyst

(+92-21) 35361215-9 Ext. 150

[email protected]

Disclaimers: This report is published solely for information purposes. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell anysecurities or related financial instruments nor should it be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Theinformation and opinions contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation orwarranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness and are subject to change without notice. PBIC does notaccept any loss or liability whatsoever arising from the use of the material or information contained herein. PBIC may from time to time holdpositions in, and may effect transactions in, the companies, sectors and/or securities mentioned herein.

Copyright 2011, Pak Brunei Investment Company (PBIC). All rights are reserved. PBIC prohibits the redistribution of this material in whole or inpart without the consent of PBIC and PBIC accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. Please cite source whenquoting.

P k B i I C Li i d
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

Documents

PBIC-Pakistan Credit Strategy 2011