PBF Advisory Group April 2015 Henk-Jan Brinkman Chief, Policy, Planning and Application Branch, PBSO Financing for Development 1 st Conference March 2002, after 9/11 Monterrey Consensus (conflict once debt sustainability) 2 nd Conference in Nov.-Dec in Doha Doha Declaration 3 rd Conference July 2015 in Addis Addis Ababa Accord Minimal decline in poverty in fragile states, but growing share Source: Kharas and Rogerson (2015), HORIZON 2025 Creative destruction in the aid industry In 2025, fragile states will account for about 80% of global poverty ... and 30 states still affected by conflict 1. Afghanistan (II) 2. Burundi (II/III) 3. Central African Republic (I/III) 4. Chad (III) 5. Comoros (III) 6. Cte d'Ivoire (I/III) 7. DRC (I/III) 8. Guatemala (III) 9. Guinea (III) 10. Guinea-Bissau (II/III) 11. Haiti (I) 12. Iraq (II) 13. Kosovo (I) 14. Kyrgyzstan (III) 15. Lebanon (I/II) 16. Liberia (I/III) 17. Libya (II) 18. Mali (I) 19. Myanmar (II/III) 20. Nepal (III) 21. Niger (III) 22. Palestine (II) 23. Papua New Guinea (III) 24. Sierra Leone (III) 25. Somalia (III) 26. South Sudan (I/III) 27. Sudan (I) 28. Syria (II) 29. Uganda (III) 30. Yemen (II/III) I = Peacekeeping Operation II = Special Political Mission III = PBF Eligible ODA to conflict-affected states grows twice as fast as total ODA CAGR: 8% CAGR: 4% Total net* ODA disbursements (USD billion) Note: * This includes non DAC countries ($3b in 2002 and $15b in 2013). Source: OECD StatExtracts CRS database (April 2015) 25% of total 16% of total 31% of total 41% of total However, only 15% is going to PSGs 1, 2 and 3 15%** Average* annual spend (USD billion ) TotalPSG 4PSG 5PSG 1PSG 3PSG %32%6%5%4% PSG 1: Legitimate politics PSG 2: Security PSG 3: Justice PSG 4: Economic Foundations PSG 5: Revenues & Services * Is average gross ODA disbursement (constant 2013 prices) per year for the period spend on each PSG. **PBSO allocation to PSGs, which is slightly different from the allocation by the OECD (e.g. anti-corruption and human rights moved from PSG 2 to PSG 3. Source: OECD StatExtracts CRS database (April 2015) Funding for PSGs 1, 2 and 3 is miniscule for PBC countries Total PBC countries Burundi CAR Guinea Guinea-Bissau Liberia Sierra Leone *Average annual spend ($ million) * Is average gross ODA disbursement (constant 2013 prices) per year for the period spend on each PSG. ** 2012 WB population figures Source: OECD StatExtracts CRS database (April 2015) ($ 5 per capita**) ($ 4 per capita) ($ 1 per capita) ($ 7 per capita) ($ 14 per capita) ($ 8 per capita) ($ 3 per capita) PSG 1, 2 and 3 PSG 1 PSG 2 PSG 3