Paying for College

A glimpse into the futureWyASFAA Spring 2010

Phil Van Horn

The Economic Environment

Economic EnvironmentSource: Committee for Responsible Federal Budget/ New America Republic

Survey of Parents with pre-college children

• Final Data – February 1, 2010• n = 764 Parents of a child under 25• 1. Do you have children in any of the follow age ranges?

[multiple response] Base: all adults (n=2,001)• 0 to 5 18%• 6 to 12 16%• 13 to 17 12%• 18 to 24 18%• No children under the age of 25 53%• (Not sure) 2% Source: IPSOS

Parent Survey--continuedSource: IPSOS

How likely is it that your child(ren) will go to college? Extremely likely 43%

• Very likely 33%• Somewhat likely 15%• Somewhat unlikely 2%• Very unlikely 1%• Extremely unlikely 4%• (Not sure) 3%• Top3Box – Total Likely 91%• Low3Box – Total Unlikely 7%

Parent survey-continuedSource: IPSOS

• The cost of college tuition is preventing many young people from having access to a college education:

• Agree: 83% • Disagree: 15%

Parent Survey-continued

• Confident we will be able to send our children to college:

• Yes: 57%• No: 37%

Demographics

2014-Main cohort of boomers starts retiring, leading to

• More resources going to health care• Fewer workers in workplace• Further straining state budgets

Sociological Factors

• “Dartmouth and Williams announce reversal of ‘no loan’ policies” Inside Higher Ed, 2/9/10

• “Number of 'Hispanic Serving' Colleges Is Expected to grow significantly” TCHE-2/10/10

• “Bigger Tuition Bills and Student Loans Coming in 2011” USN&WR 2/19/10

Other Factors

• Tuition and college costs have increased 80% this decade (WSJ-4/6/10)

• Arizona legislature not funding grant programs for 2010-2011 (Smart Money, 4/21/10)

• ISAC grant applicants up 30%, stopped funding for applicants after March (Smart Money 4/21/10)

• FAFSA filings up 58% from 2006 (USDE)

Other Factors (cont)

• Pell facing $13 billion annual shortfall• Colorado legislature eyeing video keno to fund

higher ed (Denver Post, 4/22/10)

Confront the facts…

• Less state support for higher ed…• Less federal support for higher ed…• More students will apply for assistance…• Tuition increases will exacerbate federal grant

and loan outlays. . .

Potential consequences

• Rationing of all types of assistance• Tuition restrictions• Fewer able to attend• Increased distance learning• Increased gap between degree and non-

degree population