Upload
diariodocomercio
View
223
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
7/24/2019 Paul Krugman 11/20
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/paul-krugman-1120 1/1
Paul Krugman
joined The New
York Times in 1999
as a columnist on
the Op-Ed page
and continues
as a professor of
economics and
international
affairs at Princeton
University. He was awarded the
Nobel in economic science in 2008 .
Mr. Krugman i s the author or editor
of 21 books and more than 200
papers in prof essional jour nals and
edited volumes. His latest book is
“End This Depression Now!”
The Great Depression wasn’t ended bythe intellectual victory of Keynesian eco-nomics. In fact, the publication of Keynes’s“The General Theory” was followed bythe great mista ke of 1937, when PresidentFranklin D. Roosevelt tried to balance thebudget too soon and sent the e conomy intoa severe recession. What put a decisive endto the slump was World War II, which ledto deficit spending on a scale that had beenpolitically impossible in the United States.
This story is what led me to suggestfacetiously a few years ago that we shouldfake a threat from space aliens i n order toprovide a politically acceptable cover forstimulus.
Now France has been attacked, unfor-tunately, by real terrorists instead of fakealiens, and President François Hollandeis declaring that security must take pre-cedence over austerity. Is this the start ofsomething big?
I should offer an obligatory disclaimer
that will do no good in the face of stupid-ity: I am NOT saying that terrori sm is agood thing, just as those of us who point towartime fiscal stimulus aren’t saying thatWorld War II was a good thing. We’re justtrying to thin k through some side effects ofthe atrocity.
The question we should ask is whetherthe fiscal indiscipline caused by jihad-ists will make a significant difference toFrance’s economic performance.
My guess is that it probably won’t. De-fense and security spending in the UnitedStates rose by around 2 percent of grossdomestic product after 9/11 — but that i n-volved a much bigger military buildup thanFrance is likely to undertake now, plus itinvolved the Iraq war. More likely, we’re
looking at a fraction of a percent of G.D.P.,which is small compared with the austeritythat Europe has imposed in recent years.
Unless France’s response is much biggerthan I’m imagining, the impact on growthwon’t be large.
The Farce Is Strong With This One
And that one, and that one, and, well,across the board.
It took no time at all for the r ight-wingresponse to the Paris attacks to turn into avile caricature that has me feeling nostal-gic for the restraint and statesmanship ofDonald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney.
The Republican Presidential candidateMarco Rubio said on ABC’s “This Week”that we have to denounce radical Islamin general — as opposed to jihadists inparticular — because of Hitler. After all,making Islam the rhetorical equivalent ofNazism is a great way to win support fromthe world’s 1.6 billion Muslims.
The historian Niall Ferguson wrote ina recent column in The Australian that aterrorist attack on a couple of sites withina huge modern metropolis by a small num-ber of gunmen is just like the sack of Romeby the Goths.
And the conservative commentatorHugh Hewitt thinks that taking a remarkfrom President Obama totally out of con-text on Twitter will convince anyone ex-cept the right-wing base that the man whohunted down Osama bin Laden has beenan anti-American terrorist sympathizerall along.
I’ve deliberately selected people who aresometimes portrayed as moderate, smartor both. This is what the reasonable wi ng ofthe modern right looks like.
PAUL KRUGMAN
A New Focus in France:
Security Over Austerity
During a Republican presidential de-
bate earlier this month in Wisconsin,
Jeb Bush criticized Senator Marco Ru-
bio’s attendance record in the Senate
by remarking: “I mean, literally, the
Senate, what is it, like a French work-
week? You get like three days where
you have to show up?”
The comment sparked a backlash in
the French press, and Gérard Araud,
France’s ambassador to the United
States, responded on Twitter by saying:
“A French work week of 3 days? No
but a pregnancy paid leave of 16 weeks
yes! And proud of it.”
Mr. Araud later cited productivity
data that contradicted Mr. Bush’s as-
sertion that the French have a short
workweek. Eventually, Mr. Bush’s team
apologized.
The candidate’s campaign has floun-dered in recent months. Mr. Bush has
gone from being the presumptive front-
runner for the presidential nomination,
to being in fif th place or lower in many
polls. Many analysts now consider Mr.
Bush’s former protégé, Mr. Rubio, to be
the establishment candidate best posi-
tioned to win the nomination.
Three days after this month’s debate,
terrorist attacks struck Paris, and Mr.
Bush responded with a call to declare
war on the Islamic State, urging Presi-
dent Obama to put American troops on
the ground in Iraq and Syria.
Critics quickly attacked his com-
ments. Summarizing Mr. Bush’s pur-
ported strategy in The New Yorker,
John Cassidy wrote: “You go in mili-
tarily; you knock off the local regime
and take out its forces, at which point
— not before you send in the milita ry
— you figure out how to keep the peace.
In other words, you — that is, we — do
precisely what the United States andits allies did in Iraq and Afghanistan
under the leadership of Jeb’s brother
George W.”
BACKSTORY
Bush Backtracks on Remarks
Surely we have the brains to
come up with ways to stimulate
our economies that don’t involve
warfare.
— GEORGE, AUSTRALIA
The repercussions of this con-
flict look hazy indeed. No one whohas seriously studied the IslamicState understands how to negate thethreats posed by the organizationand the possibility of military ex-tremism as a response.
So is ISIS a pa ssing phenomenon,or does the group represent a funda-mental shift in the world? If it’s thelatter, we could certainly expect tosee some economic impacts.
— DAVID, UTAH
During World War II, American
workers made a ton of money, by
1940s standards, though they had
few things to spend it on. Ration-ing goods and the sale of war bondskept money out of the economy — bydesign. After the war ended, peoplestarted cashing in their governmentbonds, and the economy experi-enced a major stimulus, as designed.
— BOB DOBBS, CALIFORNIA
The French response to the re-
cent attacks in Paris will not be
much bigger than you expect, Mr.
Krugman.
The Islamic State is not the Tali-ban, nor is it the Iraqi a rmy. It’s arelatively small, cowardly, psychotic
group of terrorists.There are not enough worthwhile
military targets to justify a moder-ate air campaign , much less a mas-sive invasion.
In fact, I’ve found myself ratherannoyed after hearing news reportsabout French aircraft destroying“ammunition dumps” and buildingsthat were described as ISIS head-quarters. French and Americanplanes would have destroyed thosetargets long ago. So it’s absurd tothink that such targets still exist.
— RICHARD F., COLORADO
Mr. Krugman, you are exactly
right about Keynes and World War
II. But the current situation regard-
ing ISIS is a much smaller affair.That said, what could prove to be ahuge project is an effort to rebuildthe Middle East.
After all, the economic stimulusspurred by World War II was fol-lowed by the Marshall Plan. Afterthis conflict with ISIS ends, perhapsa Mesopotamia Plan can be imple-mented.
— S., VIRGINIA
God save us from anyone who
declares that World War II ended
the Great Depression. Yes, un-employment in the United Statesdecreased because we shippedmillions of men oversees. And, yes,gross domestic product rose be-cause Uncle Sam was buying lots ofplanes, tanks and bombs.
But personal consumption, a veryimportant economic measurement,stayed low throughout the war
because very few consumer itemswere available for purchase. On theother hand, industrial producersconnected to the war effort made out
quite nicely.When someone says that World
War II ended the Great Depression,ask him: Who did it end it for? And,similarly, when someone says thatmassive government spending willboost the economy, ask him: Whoseeconomy?
— C., MASSACHUSETTS
The conservative response con-
demning all Muslims is exactly
what the terrorists want. (At least Mexicans are getting a break whileRepublicans in the United States un-leash their xenophobia on someoneelse.)
Also, why does the United Stateshave to respond to the attacks inParis? France and Russia have mili-
taries that are more than capable ofsmashing these thugs.
— P.J., NEW YORK
Niall Ferguson seems to movefarther and farther away from
fact-based analysis every year.— MORLEY, GEORGIA
Mr. Krugman, you seem to be-
lieve that the Republican base has
gone mad, which is an assessment
that I completely agree with. Be
careful, however, not to underes-
timate the extent to which huge
parts of the Islamic world have
also gone around the bend.
— JORGEN, DENMARK
READER COMMENTS FROM NYTIMES.COM
War Should Never Serve as a Stimulus
DEBATING POLITICS, ECONOMICS AND OTHER TIMELY TOPICS WITH PAUL KRUGMAN OF THE NEW YORK TIMES FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2015
ONLINE: COMMENTS
Comments have been edited for clarity and
length. For Paul Krugman’s latest thoughts
and to join the debate online, visit his blog at
krugman.blogs.nytimes.com.
PIERRE TERDJMAN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES
People gather around a makeshift memorial at Republic Square in Paris on Nov. 15, two days after terrorists killed 129 people ina series of attacks. President François Hollande has vowed that security spending will trump the nation’s austerity policies.
It’s been obvious for a while thatJeb Bush is toast. Recently, how-ever, he became French toast: Af-ter making a crack about Frenchworkweeks that was completelywrong, the Republican presiden-tial candidate apologized for themistake.
Fool! As National Review madeclear, real men don’t admit to,let alone apologize for, errors:“Apologizing to the French willnot score Bush any points with theG.O.P. primary electorate,” JohnFund, the magazine’s national-affairs correspondent, wrote. “Itmay show he is a gentleman, butit also shows he lacks the killerinstinct of his father and brotherwhen they ran for president.”
Hey, look at Ben Carson.But in truth the French deserve
an apology from a lot of Americanpoliticians and commentators. Ifyou think that France is a nationwhere everyone is either lazy
or unemployed, compared withhard-working America, you’re not
just repeating a caricature, you’rerepeating a caricature that’s beenout of date for many years. TheFrench do take more vacations
than Americans do, but in theirprime working years, they’re a lot
more likely to be employed thanwe are (see the chart).
Whenever I mention this fact,I get mail from people who insist
that I must be wrong and demanda correction. And even well-in-formed commentators seem to beunderinformed on this point. Forexample, Justin Fox — while notwrong in what he wrote in a recentBloomberg column on entitlementspending (here: bv.ms/1MCjmQz)— doesn’t seem aware thatFrance’s lower overall labor forceparticipation is entirely the resultof early retirement and lower em-ployment among the young, whichin turn partly reflects studentsnot having to work while they’rein college.
Of course, such employmentsuccess isn’t supposed to happenin countries with generous wel-fare states like Fra nce’s. And tobe fair, the chart here may reflectAmerican failure as much as it
does French success. Still, peopleshould know that their image ofFrance, and Europe in general, isreally, really wrong.
PAUL KRUGMAN
Caricatures and Labor Force Distortions
No need to apologize, Jeb! After
the idiocy of “freedom fries,” the
few people in France who follow
domestic American politics con-
sider it an honor to be insulted by
Americans.— CHRISTIAN PERPIGNAN, FRANCE
If you’re a Republican, there’s
nothing much worse than being
labeled a “gentleman.” That’s thekiss of death in right-wing politics.It’s possibly even worse than if you
believed in science. Or if you wereFrench.
— JIM HANSEN, CALIFORNIA
Who would want high-speed
trains; universal access to health
care and low-cost prescription
drugs; publicly funded preschool
for all with certified teachers;
tuitionless public universities;
subsidies for cultural institutions;
subsidized summer camps and
child care; and more paid vaca-
tion?
What a nightmare!— NANCY CADET, NEW YORK
In the United States, even withthe Affordable Care Act , we are
always at risk. The middle-aged
woman cleaning my teeth at mydentist’s office recently told me: “Myhusband and I are afraid. Americais such an expensive place to live.What will we do when we have toretire?” The concept of “freedom” isrelative when we compare life in theUnited States to life in France a ndother European countries. I am freeto work many hours for low pay. I a mfree to get sick and die. I am free toride two or more hours to and fromwork on a bus. And I am free to l isten
to corrupt politicians pandering topeople’s worst base instincts.
— HAROLD WINTER, FLORIDA
I spent several months living in
Paris and Lyon. There are some
things that the French get wrong.
But there’s also an awful lot that
they get right.
I remember taking t he TGV,France’s high-speed rail network,several times to Lyon from Paris.Cars that the train passed on thefreeway looked like they were stand-ing still.
And when I got back to the UnitedStates, I wondered why the govern-ment wasn’t building high-speedrail. Airport s are so crowded, andit’s much nicer to travel from one cityto another by train.
I don’t understand why President
Obama didn’t push for high-speedrail as part of an infrastructurespending project during the recov-
ery from the Great Recession.— BLAISE ADAMS, CALIFORNIA
The social democracies of Eu-
rope and elsewhere care about
their people, so they provide them
with basic services like health
care and education. In the UnitedStates, however, a college educationis becoming prohibitively expensive,and conservatives consider Obam-acare to be downright sinful.
— NAME WITHHELD, GEORGIA
France is pretty much Exhibit A
in the Encyclopedia of Conserva-
tive Revisionism. We often forgetthat no other country was as finan-
cially supportive of our efforts in theRevolutionary War as France.
— R. LAW, TEXAS
READER COMMENTS FROM NYTIMES.COM
From Freedom Fries to Foot-in-Mouth
70
84
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development THE NEW YORK TIMES
Employment Ratio, Ages 25-54
72
74
76
78
80
82
1 9 9 5
1 9 9 6
1 9 9 7
1 9 9 8
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 4
UNITED STATES
FRANCE
Percent