Paul Holper, CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research, AustraliaNeil Plummer, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia

ACRE Workshop, Zurich, June 2008

CAWCR web portal & climate scenarios

Outline

Australia’s climate

New climate change projections for Australia

Climate data processing & delivery – Climate Projections Online

Climatic data requirements

CSIRO, CAWCR

CSIRO + BoM = CAWCR

Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

~250 researchers• Weather and Environment Prediction

• Atmosphere-Land Observation and Assessment

• Ocean Prediction

• ACCESS

• Seasonal Prediction

• Climate Change

• Ocean Observation and Assessment

Australia: What is our climate?

• Grappling with a changing climate and the impacts of a 10-year dry spell in the south-east

• Past climate is no guide to that of the future

‘The future will be like living in a different country’

Observed annual rainfall changes

May 2008 rainfall deciles

May 2008 was Australia’s driest May on record

Areas in red set all-time records in March 2008 for most consecutive days above 35°C

15 consecutive days at Adelaide – previous record 8

Source: Dr Blair Trewin, Bureau of Meteorology

Record runs of consecutive hot days

Source: Dr Warwick Grace

Adelaide hot spells

4 days >35ºC = 1/year7 days >35ºC = 1/10 years 8 days >35ºC = 1/20 years15 days >35ºC = 1/3000 years

Climate Change in Australia

Most comprehensive projections delivered in Australia

Prepared by CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology

Probabilistic

State by State

Climate variables:• temperature change, rainfall, relative humidity, solar

radiation, sea surface temperature, wind speed, potential evapotranspiration

Years: 2030, 2050, 2070

Percentiles: 10th, 50th and 90th

Seasons + annual

www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au

Chance of at least 1, 2, 3 or 4°C warming

Growing attention to climate change

‘Global warming was … a strong vote-changer.’

• Massive, and growing, demand for climatic data 44,000+ unique visitors to CCIA website since launch (3 Oct. 2007)

Climate Projections Online

Current system • Users obtain data from various sources and commission supply

of projection data

Solution• Climate Projections Online

• ‘One stop shop’ for historical data and projections

• Promises a more consistent, streamlined approach

• Integrated historical and future climate information to improve understanding and to better manage climate risks

The past is no longer a good guide to the future

Integration of historical climate data with projection information

• Needed to produce realistic data required for many applications – model output is not sufficient

• Needed because without allowing for climate change the historical record is becoming less relevant for its traditional uses

• Allows climate change information delivery to build upon existing delivery mechanisms (e.g. National Climate Centre services)

• Needed to put climate change in the context of natural variability. Allow for climate-change-induced drift.

Many stakeholders want guidance on climate variations over the next 10 years. Some farmers are demanding this due to concerns over viability and succession of their farms.

• Allows future climate change to be related to an observed baseline familiar to the user (e.g. ‘How will the 2030s compare to the 1990s?’)

20081900 2100

Sample obs

PDF for natural variability

2050 climate projection

rain

fall

Currently

rain

fall

20081900 2100

PDF for natural variability and model greenhouse signal uncertainty

We need

Integration of historical climate data with projection information

Specific applications

• Over the next 20-30 years what are the…• Likely changes to temperature regimes?

• Likely changes in the nature and frequency of severe rainfall deficiencies?

• The likely effect of projected climate changes on integrated measures of drought?

• How are past exceptional climatic events placed in the context of the likely frequency and severity of future climatic events?

• Government is reviewing ‘Drought Exceptional Circumstances’ funding as ‘exceptional’ events may become less so in future.

• What is the information farmers and farm businesses need to understand their climatic situation and comment on appropriate tools to provide such information?

Climate Projections Online: Data provision

Climate ChangeIn Australia

report

Climate provider activity User activityClimate change research

Understandingregional

climate change

How to doprojections

Knowledge ofuser needs

GCM data

Climate modelling

Historical climate datae.g. BOM, SILO

general purposeuse

I&A applicationsDatasets for

impact assessment,e.g. times series

Applying projectionmethodology

Websiteenhancements

Enhanced Climate Change

In Australiawebsite

GCM data

Enhanced historical climate database

I&A applicationsIncreased demand metSimpler, quicker and cheaper for usersMore consistency acrossstudies

Automation methods research

Integrated database& website

development

ClimateProjections Online

Automated creation of datasets and information services for

impact assessmentse.g. time series

Outcomes of Climate Projections Online

• Improves decision-making• access to better and more relevant information on climate change

• Reduced duplication• in the construction of climate projections

• reduced risk of clients using substandard information

• Greater public exposure and acceptance of climate change information

• Increase overall research activity• due to lowering ‘barriers for entry’ for researchers

• Improved understanding of both climate variability and climate change by users

• Easier for users to access climate data• Support of policy making: local, state and national

Climatic data requirements

• Need to seamlessly link historical data to projections

• We project lower rainfall in future, but it may actually be greater than now!

• Need data rehabilitation and rescue; need to digitise paper records

• No really good Australian datasets that are internally consistent

• We have high-quality rainfall data (1900-), high-quality temperature data (1910-); but don’t have surface pressure, winds or other tropospheric fields. Reanalysis data will be valuable – internally consistent, baseline data.

Conclusions

• Astonishing increase in interest in climate change• Australia is in the grips of climate change• Great demand in Australia for readily accessible information

and tools• New climate change projections:

www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au• Climate Projections Online proposed to integrate historical and

future climate information to improve understanding and to better manage climate risks

• Strong need for internally consistent, comprehensive climatic data

Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176

Email: enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au

Thank you

Paul HolperCSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research

+61 3 9239 4661paul.holper@csiro.au