Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Pathways to S oot-Free and Zero Emission Bus Fleets in India
R ay Minjares , C lean Air P rogram
8th B us World C onferenc e on S us tainable P ublic T rans port
30 A ug us t 2018
B eng aluru, India
The International C ouncil on C lean Transportation
S an FranciscoWashington, DC
Berlin
Beijing
to improve the environmental performance and energy effic iency of road, marine, and air trans portation, in order to mitigate climate change and benefit public health.
Diesel Engines are a Key Target
“The scientific evidence was compelling and the Working Group’s
conclusion was unanimous: diesel engine exhaust causes lung cancer in humans.”
-Dr. C hristopher Portier
International Agency for Research on C ancer. (2012, J une 12). IARC : Diesel Engine Exhaust C arcinogenic. J NC I J ournal of the National C ancer Institute. Lyon, France: World Health O rganization. doi:10.1093/jnci/djs034
Buses25%
O ther Vehicles75%
Annual PM2.5 Emissions
Buses represent 1 percent of the on-road vehicle fleet but 25 percent of on-road PM2.5 emissions
Miller, J .; Minjares, R .; Dallmann, T. R .; J in, L. F inancing the T rans ition to S oot-F ree Urban B us F leets in 20 Megacities ; http://www.theicct.org/publications/financing-trans ition-soot-free-urban-bus -fleets -20-megacities Washington, DC, 2017; pp 1–49.
BS VI Engines Deliver S oot-Free Emissions
5
Stages of Black Carbon Emissions Control Based on European Regulatory Approach in
Urban Bus Fleets
Source: COPERT Emissions Model
Mexico C ity
Bogotá
Lima
S antiagoBuenos Aires
São Paulo J ohannesburg S ydney
Manila
J akarta
Dhaka
Bangkok
Istanbul
C asablanca
Addis Ababa
NairobiDar es S alaam
Abidjan
Accra
Lagos
IC C T-UN Environment S upport to More than 20 Megacities to S hift to S oot Free Urban Bus Fleets
Bangalore
G lobal Industry Partnership on S oot-Free C lean Bus Fleets
1. C ommit to make available soot-free engine technology in all 20 targeted cities by 2018
2. Agree to provide a list of soot-free bus models available to each city
3. Announce this commitment publicly
4. Publicly report the number of soot-free buses sold
5. Agree to provide the name and point of contact designated to each city
6. Agree to update this information on an annual basis
http://www.ccacoalition.org/en/news/bus-manufacturers-commit-bring-cleaner-‘soot-free’-buses-20-megacities
Implementation Pathway T heory of C hang e for Public Fleets
Political C ommitment S et targets
Fleet-Wide S trategy
Define technology, infrastructure, operational strategy and cost
Public Tendering
Procure vehicles and infrastructure in line with the target
Vehicle Deployment
Put vehicles and infrastructure into service
Saõ Paulo C limate Law to Force Technology Transition in 14,000 buses across 1,340 lines
Dallmann, Tim (2018) Climate and air pollutant emissions benefits of bus technology options in São Paulo. Washington, DC : International C ouncil on C lean Transportation. F orthcoming
10
Technology Pathways for S oot-Free Engines
E uro VI or US 2010 Dies el eng ines or older engines with wall-flow diesel particulate filter. Requires 10-15 ppm S diesel.
G as eng ines using biogas or fossil gas
E lec tric drive eng ines such as battery-electric, fuel cell, trolley-electric …
Highest Up-Front C ost but Lowest Total C ost of O wnership for Battery-Electric Buses in Saõ Paulo
Purchase price for electric drive transit buses compared to a conventional diesel bus
TCO estimates over 10 years for conventional and alternative technology for Padron LE type buses in São Paulo
S ource: International E valuation of P ublic P olicies for E lectromobility in Urban F leets . Prepared for G esellschaft für International Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) as part of PN 2015.2127.7 – Efficient Propulsion Systems. Washington, DC: International Council on C lean Transportation. F orthcoming.
1. All new buses to be zero emission by 2029
2. All bus fleets to achieve 100% zero emissions by 2040
3. All fleets to submit a fleet-wide deployment strategy
▪ Largest fleets (100 or greater)
▪ to submit plan by 2020
▪ to achieve 25% ZEB purchases by 2023
▪ to achieve 50% ZEB purchases by 2026
▪ S mallest fleets (less than 100)
▪ to submit plan by 2023
▪ to achieve 25% ZEB purchases by 2026
More details online at https://arb.ca.gov/msprog/ict/ict.htm
C alifornia 2018 Proposal for Zero Emission Bus Mandate
Inputs
Route C haracteristics
Vehicle S pecifications
C harging S pecifications
Electricity C ost
Emission Factors
O wnership Model
Modeling
Vehicle Energy Demand S imulation
Emissions Modeling
Electricity C ost Modeling
TC O Modeling
O utputs
NPV TC O by O wnership Model
Average Annual Electricity C ost
Vehicle Replacement Ratio
Annual Emissions
Annual health/climate impacts
S ervice-Level Total C ost of O wnership (TC O ) Modeling at Route Level
Areas of S upport
▪ Fleet-wide vehicle modernization scheme
▪ Vehicle technology, infrastructure, and operational planning
▪ Independent performance and cost assessment of in-service vehicles
▪ Total cost of ownership modeling and benefit assessment at the route level
▪ Innovative financing and business models
▪ Tendering and contracts
▪ E-Bus Retrofitting
UITP India and IC C T S upport to Bengaluru: 2018-2021
S upplementary
17
Technology S hift Towards S oot-Free Engines
C ourtesy of C learAire, Inc.
18
Energy consumption of on-road diesel engines* has increased more than 400% since 1980
Based on IEA data from the World Energy Balances Data Service © OECD/IEA 2017, www.iea.org/statistics. Licence: www.iea.org/t&c; as modified by IC C T.
*Diesel engines consume diesel fuel and biodiesel.
S antiago TC O analysis informs route and technology selection
20
Electric drive engines are more energy efficient than combustion engines
IC C T (2017). Low-carbon technology pathways for soot-free urban bus fleets in 20 megacities. https://www.theicct.org/publications/low-carbon-technology-pathways-soot-free-urban-bus-fleets-20-megacities
S antiago route pre-selection for 90 e-bus pilot with a view towards ~2000 e-buses by 2025
60% of new buses in major cities must be NEVs
▪ Battery electric
▪ Plug-in Hybrid Electric
▪ Fuel C ell Electric
C hina National Ten Measures (2013)
F ig ure 1. Vehic le population in C hina’s provinc es and munic ipalities in 2014 (10,000 units )
23
Today 20% of new buses are soot-free
2014 G lobal Bus S ales, by Region*
Requires S oot-Free Buses
Proposes S oot-Free Bus S tds
*Includes only transit and coach buses. S oot-Free defined as Euro VI-equivalent for buses. Does not include sub-national policies
No Requirement
EU5%
Korea1%
Turkey2%
US A2%
India6%
C hina2%
Russia1%
Thailand1%
India6%
Mexico1%
C hina29%
Brazil4%
Russia1%
Thailand1%
O ther38%
Adopted S oot-Free Bus S tds
C hina C ity Targets for NEV Buses
C ity T arg et S c ope B as e Y ear T arg et Y ear
Beijing 60% Existing fleet 2017 2020
S haanxi 7000 Existing fleet 2020
Hainan 90% New and replacement buses
2020
G uangdong 75% Existing Fleet 2020
Pearl River Delta
90% New and replacement
2019
C hongmingIsland
100% Existing Fleet 2020
Harbin 80% Existing Fleet 2020
C hangsha 100% Existing Fleet 2020
Electric drive buses not only deliver zero emissions but also the greatest climate benefits in 16 of 20 cities
Dallmann, T. R .; Du, L.; Minjares, R . L ow-C arbon T echnology P athways for S oot-F ree Urban B us F leets in 20 Megacities ; Working Paper 2017-11; Washington, DC, 2017; Vol. 356, pp 493–494.
Last diesel bus phased out in 2011 in favor of C NGLA Metro’s 2030 ZEB plan would be ten years ahead of CARB goals
26
LA Metro: 2,300 buses is largest in C alifornia
But ‘Fossil Fuel Free’ Will Still Allow High Carbon Fuels in Saõ Paulo
Dallmann, Tim (2018) Climate and air pollutant emissions benefits of bus technology options in São Paulo. Washington, DC : International C ouncil on C lean Transportation. F orthcoming
https://www.theicct.org/soot-free-transport-resources
Pathways to S oot-Free Low C arbon Fleets
Local Actions
1. S et a target year to procure only soot-free fuels and engines2. S et a target year to procure only zero emission engines3. Develop a ZEB implementation strategy
• Undertake feasibility studies and TC O analysis of route electrification• Target early introduction of electric drive onto fixed route BRT
4. Replace the highest emitting buses in the fleet
National Actions
1. S et 10ppm S fuel s tandards and adopt E uro VI emis s ion norms2. S et timelines for trans ition to 100% electric drive in new buses3. P rovide fis c al inc entives• Direc t s ubs idies for Z E B purc has e and infrastructure;• Revise public transit subsidies in favor of least cost TC O• S hift tax policies in favor of electric drive technology
30
Under adopted policies, 37% of the world’s HDDV fleet will be equipped soot-free by 2040
S ource: Miller, J ., and J in, L. (2018). G lobal Progress Toward S oot-Free Diesel Vehicles.https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-progress-toward-soot-free-diesel-vehicles-2018
C alifornia
Fuente: Frank S chulenburg, C C BY-S A 4.0,
▪ C umplir con normas de ozono en 2023 y 2031
▪ 40% reducción en emisiones de G EF bajo niveles 1990 en2030
▪ 80 % reducción en emisiones de G EF bajo niveles 1990 en2050
▪ 50 % reducción en consumo de petróleo en 2030
Requiere desarrollo máximo de tecnología de cero emisiones
Metas Estatales en C alifornia
40% de la flota ya lleva un compromiso voluntariode cero emisiones
https://arb.ca.gov/msprog/ict/ict.htm
▪ 188 milliones US D (2017-2018) HVIP
▪ 30,000 US D cada cargador
▪ 100,000 US D cada cinco FC EB
Incentivos
https://arb.ca.gov/msprog/ict/ict.htm
▪ 130 milliones US D VW Dieselgate
▪ 180,000 US D BEB
▪ 400,000 US D FC EB
▪ 5 % producto de subasta de cap y comercio
▪ 250 milliones US D (AB 617) calidad del aire
O tros Incentivos
https://arb.ca.gov/msprog/ict/ict.htm
▪ S AE Estàndares de C arga
▪ Aprobado J 3068 AC de 3 fases para vehículosmedianos y pesados hasta 166kw
▪ Inalámbrico y aéreo bajo desarrollo
▪ S B350 electrificación de transporte
▪ 780 millones US D inversion aprobado por servicioseléctricos
▪ C ompra conjunta de buses al nivel estatal
▪ Estándar de combustible bajo en carbono
▪ Reducir la intensidad de carbono en combustible de transporte por 10 % en 2020
O tros Programas
https://arb.ca.gov/msprog/ict/ict.htm
Asistencia a O peradores: Apoyo Técnico e Independiente
Asistencia a O peradores: Apoyo Técnico e Independiente
Los Angeles
41
C iudad de Los Angeles: 100% BC E en 2030
42
1. Demanda a largo plazo para un servicio igual o mayor a diesel
1. Rango de más de 400 km en conducción intermitente con factor de carga de 1.4 pasajeros
2. Menos de 14,000 kg de peso en vacío para 12m bus
3. Rango de 400 km a lo largo de la vida del vehículo de 12 años
4. 100 km / h de velocidad máxima; capacidad de mantener unacalificación del 10%
2. Nueva inversión inicial en equipos de carga e infraestructura
3. Riesgos tecnológicos conocidos y desconocidos, particularmente baterías
4. S e necesita financiación adicional para implementar el programa 100%
Impactos en otros costos operativos y de capital, calendario de despliegue y / o nivelesde servicio y confiabilidad. Puede requerir reemplazo en una proporción mayor que 1: 1
Obstáculos a una flota de C ero Emisiones
Metro Orange Line – Project Details
▪ 40 New Flyer 18m
▪ 5 BYD 18m
▪ 2 – depot chargers
▪ 8 – en route chargers
43
44
F as e 1:
▪ Electrificar 2 líneas de BRT
▪ C ontinuar reemplazando la flota existente con motores de G NC de bajo NO x (~ 200 por año)
▪ Desarrollar evaluación de tecnología y plan maestro (2019-2020)
F as e 2:
▪ Implementar el Plan Maestro
Los Angeles – Plan de Dos Fases
Flota Foothill Transit
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71292.pdf
§ 16 buses eléctricos de carga rápida
§ Línea 291 – La Verne – Claremont – Pomona
§ Cargo de 7-min en Pomona Transit Center
§ 8 buses en el servicio pico
§ En funcionamiento desde 2010
Servicio Actual
Disponibilidad de buses
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71292.pdf
La estación de carga
• Una estación de carga rápida de alta potencia con dos cargadores superiores, suficiente para servir a todos losautobuses
• 138,000 ciclos de carga a la fecha, y 1.3 millones de millasde bus eléctrico
• Ubicado en Pomona Transit Center, un centro neurálgicocon flexibilidad y seguridad fuera de la calle
§ 14 autobuses eléctricos de autonomíaextendida
§ Línea 280: Azusa – Covina – West Covina –La Puente – Industry – Puente Hills Mall
§ Rango nominal de 404 km
§ Carga nocturna en la instalación de mantenimiento y operaciones de Arcadia
§ Carga en ruta disponible en Azusa Intermodal Transit Center (cerca de la estación Gold Line)
§ Los buses aceptados en diciembre de 2017
Servicio Eléctrico Nuevo
Desafío Actual: Espacio para Instalación de cargadores
Foothill Transit Arcadia Yard
Lecciones aprendidas: altos costos de electricidad
• El cargador rápido usa tanta electricidad
como un edificio de oficinas de 6 pisos
• Electricidad puede ser caro
• Por milla, se paga un 65% más por
electricidad que gas natural.
Q2 2015 Electricidad Gas Natural
Costo (per gal/kWh) $0.17 $0.93
Costo (per mile) $0.37 $0.23
Lecciones Aprendidas: costo de mantenimiento bajo
Mantenimiento preventivo es 29% más barato que GNC
• Sin fluidos de motor o filtros
• Costo laboral es igual
Alta fiabilidad:
• La disponibilidad está por encima del objetivo y a la par con
el GNC
• Disponibilidad de flota eléctrica 90% vs. 95% CNG.
53
C onsumo de energía en vehículos de carreteraha incrementado más de 400% desde 1980
Based on IEA data from the World Energy Balances Data Service © O EC D/IEA 2017, www.iea.org/statistics. Licence: www.iea.org/t&c; as modified by IC C T.
*Diesel engines consume diesel fuel and biodiesel.
▪ S e operan dentro de ciudades con alta contaminación
▪ C ombustible suministrado centralmente
▪ Apoyo y subsidios del gobierno
▪ Experiencia e infraestructura para otros tipos de vehículos
¿Porqué Buses?
Dallmann, T. R ., Du, L., & Minjares, R . (2017). L ow-C arbon T echnology P athways for S oot-F ree Urban B us F leets in 20 Megacities(No. Working Paper 2017-11). International C ouncil on C lean T ransportation (Vol. 356, pp. 493–494). Washington, DC. Retrieved from http://www.theicct.org/publications/low-carbon-technology-pathways-soot-free-urban-bus-fleets-20-megacities
No room for high carbon fuels in a low-carbon fleet
9 de cada 10 personas respiran airecontaminado
También enfrentamos un desafío climático
60
P has e 1:
▪ Electrify 2 BRT lines
▪ C ontinue replacing existing fleet with low-NO x C NG engines (~ 200 per year)
▪ Develop ZEB Technology Assessment and Master Plan (2019-2020)
P has e 2:
▪ Implement ZEB Master Plan to deploy 100% zero emission buses.
Los Angeles – Two Phase Plan
61
LA Metro O range Line: Project Details
3-4 C hargers
1-2 C hargers
2-3 C hargers
Div 8 C hatsworth(S hop chargers)