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The Path to 270

Demographics versus Economics in the 2012 Presidential Elect

Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin November 2011

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The Path to 270Demographics versus Economics in the 2012 Presidential Elec

Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin November 2011

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1 Introduction and summary

10 Demography of the path to 270

15 Geography of the path to 270

15 Core Obama and GOP states

16 The Midwest/Rust Belt

35 Midwest/Rust Belt summary

35 The Southwest

45 Southwest summary

45 The New South

57 New South summary

58 What President Obama and Republicans should focus on

win in 2012

61 About the authors

62 Endnotes

Contents

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1 Center or American Progress |The Path To 270: Demographics erss Economics in the 2012 Presidentia Eection

Introduction and summary

Wih a litle under one year o go beore he 2012 presidenial elecion, nex years

batle looks increasingly compeiive, wih ongoing economic disress and a highly

energized Republican base poenially neuralizing he incumbency advanage

ha Presiden Barack Obama would radiionally hold.

Obviously, much could change beween now and hen bu a he ouse o he

elecion campaign i is clear ha wo large orces will ulimaely deermine he

oucome: he shiing demographic balance o he American elecorae, and heobjecive realiy and voer percepion o he economy in key batleground saes.

Te cenral quesions o he elecion are hus airly sraighorward. Will he ris-

ing elecorae o communiies o color, he Millennial generaion, proessionals,

single women, and seculars ha pushed Obama o vicory in 2008 be sucien

and mobilized enough o ensure his re-elecion in 2012? Or will he Republican

Pary and is presidenial nominee capialize on a sruggling economy and greaer

mobilizaion rom a conservaive base ha holds he presiden in deep disdain?

Regardless o he oucome, i is likely ha American poliics will remain highly

conesed and polarized or years o come. Te elecoral volailiy seen rom

2006 o 2010 suggess ha he bigges issues in American poliicshe role o

governmen, he balance o public and marke orces, axaion, and social welare

policiesremain conesed in parisan erms. Te nancial crisis and he Grea

Recession have severely clouded he elecoral picure, making i clear ha 2008

marked only he poenial or a new progressive alignmen in American elecions,

raher han is consolidaion.

Given he job approval raings o he presiden and economic indicaors in key saes

(see able 1 on nex page), he 2012 elecion will likely be igher han he 2008elecion, perhaps more like 2004 or even he highly conesed 2000 elecion.

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Obama job approval

(percent)

Unemployment rate

(percent)

D.C. 83 11.1

Connecticut 60 8.9

Maryland 59 7.4

Delaware 59 8.1

New York 57 8.0

Massachusetts 57 7.3

Hawaii 56 6.4

Vermont 54 5.8Illinois 54 10.0

New Jersey 54 9.2

California 53 11.9

Minnesota 52 6.9

Rhode Island 50 10.5

Washington 50 9.1

Wisconsin 50 7.8

Maine 50 7.5

Michigan 50 11.1Iowa 49 6.0

Pennsylvania 48 8.3

Georgia 48 10.3

Florida 47 10.6

North Carolina 46 10.5

Virginia 46 6.5

New Mexico 46 6.6

Mississippi 45 10.6

Ohio 44 9.1

Obama job approval

(percent)

Unemployment rate

(percent)

Nevada 44 13.4

Arizona 44 9.1

Colorado 44 8.3

Oregon 44 9.6

South Carolina 43 11.0

Louisiana 42 6.9

Indiana 42 8.9

Missouri 42 8.7South Dakota 41 4.6

Texas 40 8.5

New Hampshire 40 5.4

Tennessee 40 9.8

Alaska 39 7.6

Nebraska 39 4.2

Kansas 38 6.7

Alabama 38 9.8

North Dakota 37 3.5Kentucky 37 9.7

Montana 36 7.7

Arkansas 33 8.3

West Virginia 33 8.2

Oklahoma 32 5.9

Utah 32 7.4

Wyoming 32 5.8

Idaho 27 9.0

US 47 9.1

table 1

Obama job approval and unemployment rate by state

Source: Gallup (Average Job Approval Jan-June 2011); BLS (Seasonally Adjusted, Unemployment Rate September 2011).

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Wha srenghs and weaknesses do Presiden Obama and Democras hold going ino 2012?

As weve previously argued in oher CAP repors (see New Progressive America, Sae o

American Poliical Ideology, 2009 and Demographic Change and he Fuure o he Paries), he

shiing demographic composiion o he elecoraerising percenages o communiies o

color, single and highly educaed women, Millennial generaion voers, secular voers, andeducaed whies living in more urbanized saes or more urbanized pars o saesclearly

avors Democras and has increased he relaive srengh o he pary in naional elecions

in recen years. In conras, he Republican Parys coaliion o older, whier, more rural, and

evangelical voers is shrinking and becoming more geographically concenraed and less

imporan o he overall poliical landscape o he counry.1

Tese Democraic advanages emerged clearly in he 2008 presidenial elecion. Barack

Obamas 53 percen popular voe represened he larges share any presidenial candidae

received in 20 years. Obama won 365 elecoral voes and he carried all 18 saes, plus

he Disric o Columbia, ha John Kerry won in 2004 (as did Al Gore in 2000 and BillClinon in 1992 and 1996), plus nine saes ha Kerry los: Colorado, Florida, Indiana,

Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Norh Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. By region, his patern o

Democraic vicories helped o reduce core GOP srengh in presidenial elecions o he

Upper Mounain Wes, Grea Plains saes, and he Souh.

Republicans also los heir poliical monopoly in he Souh as he hree as-growing new

souh saes o Virginia, Norh Carolina, and Florida wen Democraic in 2008. Te

Norheas, he Midwes (wih he excepion o Missouri), he Souhwes (wih he excep-

ion o Arizona), and he Wes were solidly conrolled by he Democras. Moreover, he

saes he GOP carried ended o be rural and lighly populaed. Sixeen ou o 28 saes

Obama carried had 10 or more elecoral voes while jus 4 o he 21 ha John McCain

carried had ha many elecoral voes. Obama also carried seven o he eigh mos populous

saes: Caliornia, New York, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan. Only one

o he eigh mos populous saesexaswen or McCain.2

Even wih hese long-erm demographic srenghs, Democraic weaknesses are mani-

es. Coninuing economic disress among large segmens o he American public,

coupled wih he perceived inabiliy o he Obama adminisraions policies o spark

real recovery, has coalesced ino serious doubs abou Democraic sewardship o heeconomy. In Augus 2011, Gallup repored record low public approval o Presiden

Obamas handling o he economy, wih barely one-quarer (26 percen) approving o

he presidens perormance on his key indicaor.3 No presiden in he pas 50 years
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/03/pdf/progressive_america.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/03/pdf/political_ideology.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/03/pdf/political_ideology.pdfhttp://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/2010/06/pdf/voter_demographics.pdfhttp://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/2010/06/pdf/voter_demographics.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/03/pdf/political_ideology.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/03/pdf/political_ideology.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/03/pdf/progressive_america.pdf

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has been re-eleced wih unemploymen as high as i is oday. Hisorically, admin-

israions wih unemploymen problems have seem hem miigaed wih signi-

can employmen change ahead o an elecion.

Bu given ha he Congressional Budge Oce is currenly projecing unem-

ploymen o average 8.7 percen in 2012,4

ha does no appear o be in he o-ingunless o course here are new measures o simulae jobs and growh. Such

measures ace dicul prospecs given he saed posiion o House Republicans.

Wha are he srenghs and weaknesses o Republicans going ino 2012?

As he 2010 elecion highlighs, Republicans coninue o hold srong advanages

when he voing elecorae is older, more conservaive, and less diverse han he

overall populaion. Democras suered one o he larges elecoral deeas on

record las year, ceding conrol o he House o Represenaives o he Republican

Pary aer regaining he majoriy jus our years earlier. Republicans gained 63House seas in he 2010 elecion, overperorming by abou 10 seas wha would

have been expeced on he basis o he popular voe spliapproximaely 52 per-

cen Republican o 45 percen Democraic.

Te Republican voe was ecienly disribued o produce Republican vicories,

especially in he Rus Bel saes and in conesed souhern saes such as Virginia

and Florida. Te Republican gain o 63 seas was he bes pos-World War II sea

gain by eiher pary in a miderm elecion, and only he hird ime a pary gained

more han 50 seas since hen.

Exi-poll daa rom 2010 showed ha independen voers,5 whie working-class

voers, seniors, and men broke heavily agains he Democras due o he economy.

Similarly, urnou levels were also unusually low in communiies o color and

among young voers, and unusually high among seniors, whies, and conserva-

ives, hus conribuing o a more skewed miderm elecorae.

Te desire o unsea Presiden Obama will likely produce a srong surge o

Republican base voers in 2012. I his enhusiasm gap ranslaes ino a noiceably

more conservaive, GOP-leaning elecorae han is ypical in presidenial elecions,Republicans may be able o capure several o Presiden Obamas saes rom 2008.

Republicans mainain ongoing weaknesses ha will need o be addressed in order

o maximize heir chances in 2012. Te parys increasing alignmen wih is mos

Republicans

continue to

hold strong

advantages

when the voting

electorate is

older, more

conservative,

and less diverse

than the overall

population.

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conservaive wing and he rising power o ea Pary values and posiions wihin

he GOP camp does no ranslae well o he larger elecorae. Tus, he GOPs

abiliy o capialize poliically on he poor economy will be signicanly reduced i

heir evenual presidenial nominee is oo closely associaed wih an exreme ani-

sais plaorm ha is hosile o aspecs o governmen ha Americans suppor

or a social and culural agenda ouside o he mainsream o public opinion. Andeven wih a possible advanage in voer enhusiasm, he base mobilizaion sraegy

employed successully by Presiden Bushs campaign in 2004 will be dicul o

replicae given demographic shis since ha elecion and concerns abou GOP

exremism among more moderae, independen, and nonideological Americans.

Heading ino 2012, he primary sraegic quesions will be: Will Presiden

Obama wihsand coninued doubs abou he economy and his approach o

recovery? Will he presiden hold sucien suppor among communiies o

color, educaed whies, Millennials, single women, and seculars and avoid a

caasrophic meldown among whie working-class voers? Conversely, willRepublicans capure voer disenchanmen on he economy and oer a cred-

ible economic alernaive o he presiden? Will hey nominae a candidae who

can appeal beyond heir older, more conservaive, whie, evangelical base? Will

Democraic apahy and Republican energy make he elecorae much more con-

servaive leaning han is underlying demographics would sugges?

Te remainder o his paper explores hese quesions in more deail by rs examin-

ing he demographic and geographic rends ha will mater mos in 2012 and hen

exploring wha implicaions hese rends migh have in erms o Democraic and

Republican sraegy or nex years campaign. In brie, here are our key ndings.

On he naional level, given solid, bu no excepional, perormance among

minoriy voers, Obamas re-elecion depends on eiher holding his 2008 whie

college-graduae suppor, in which case he can survive a landslide deea o 2010

proporions among whie working-class voers, or holding his slippage among

boh groups o around 2004 levels, in which case he can sill squeak ou a vicory.

Conversely, i Republicans can cu signicanly ino Obamas whie college-grad-

uae suppor and hen replicae he landslide margins hey achieved among whie

working-class voers in 2010, hen hey are likely o emerge vicorious.

On he sae level, Obama and he Republicans sar he elecion campaign wih

186 and 191 elecoral voes respecively rom heir core saes. Wih he excepion

o New Hampshire, he addiional saes Obama and he Republicans need can

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come rom hree broad geographic areas: he Midwes/Rus Bel, he Souhwes,

and he New Souh. Tey are all saes ha were carried by Obama in 2008.

Te six Midwes/Rus Bel swing saes (Iowa, Michigan, Minnesoa, Ohio,

Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) are all marked by slow growh and by a relaively

small and slow-growing percenage o voers rom communiies o color. Tesesaes are projeced o average around 15 percen minoriy voers in 2012, ranging

rom a low o 10 percen in Iowa o a high o 21 percen in Pennsylvania. Bu his rel-

aively small base o minoriy voers is supplemened or Democras by airly srong

suppor among hese saes growing whie college-graduae populaions, who gave

Obama an average 5-poin advanage in 2008. Tis coaliion o he ascendan has

produced increased Democraic suppor in growing areas o hese saes.

Moreover, he weigh o ha coaliion should be larger in hese saes in 2012

han in 2008, wih an average 3-poin increase in he percen o whie college

graduaes and minoriies among voers, and a 3-poin decline in he percen owhie working-class voers. In addiion, Obama should also bene rom he ac

ha Midwesern and Rus Bel whie working-class voers end o be more sup-

porive han in oher compeiive saes, averaging only a 2-poin Democraic

deci in 2008.

Te poor economic siuaion, however, weighs heavily on ha relaive riendli-

ness and i is likely o reduce enhusiasm or Obama among his coaliion o he

ascendan. Ta will give Republicans an opening in hese saes, especially in

Ohio. McCain los he sae by only 5 poins in 2008, he whie working class was

noably sympaheic o he GOP even hen (McCain carried hem by 10 poins),

and excep or Michigan, he economic siuaion is worse han in he res o hese

saes. A srong GOP mobilizaion eor could ake he sae, especially i here is

no signican economic improvemen beween now and he elecion.

GOP chances in he oher ve saes are no as good, hough Pennsylvania, wih

he mos riendly whie working class, and Michigan, wih he wors economy,

provide serious opporuniies. For Obamas par, his abiliy o keep his coaliion

o he ascendan ogeher and avoid caasrophic losses among he whie work-

ing class in all ve saes will be heavily dependen on wheher and how much heeconomy improves as we near he elecion.

Te hree Souhwes swing saes (Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico) are all marked

by as growh and by relaively high and growing percenages o minoriy, chiefy

Obamas abilityto keep his

coalition o

the ascendant

together

and avoid

catastrophic

losses among

the white

working class

will be heavily

dependent on

whether and

how much

the economy

improves.

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Hispanic, voers. Tese saes are projeced o average around 36 percen minoriy

voers in 2012, ranging rom a low o 21 percen in Colorado o a high o 52 percen in

New Mexico. And he 3-poin advanage he growing whie college-graduae popula-

ion gives Obama supplemens his solid base o minoriy voers or Democras.

Tis coaliion o he ascendan has produced increased Democraic supporin mos growing areas o hese saes. Moreover, he weigh o ha coaliion

should be larger in hese saes in 2012 han in 2008, wih an average 4-poin

increase in he percen o whie college graduaes and minoriies among voers,

and a 4-poin decline in he percen o whie working-class voers. Ye com-

pared o he Midwesern and Rus Bel swing saes, whie working-class voers

in he Souhwes are quie a bi more riendly o he GOP, averaging a 17-poin

Republican advanage in 2008.

Te dicul economic siuaion, especially in Nevada and Colorado, is likely o

enhance heir recepiveness o he GOP, even as i is likely o reduce enhusiasmor Obama among whie college graduaes and, mos worrisome or his campaign,

among minoriies, where suppor and urnou among Hispanics could all signi-

canly. Tereore, even hough Obama has he demographic wind a his back, so o

speak, he Republicans will have a serious sho a hese saes. And a leas in Nevada

and Colorado, wihou signican economic improvemen, even hard mobilizaion

work by he Obama campaign may no be enough o keep hem ou o GOP hands.

Te hree New Souh swing saes (Florida, Norh Carolina, and Virginia) are all

marked by as growh, driven by heir burgeoning minoriy populaions. Tese

saes are projeced o average around 31 percen minoriy voers in 2012. Tese

voers, wih heir relaively high concenraions o black voers, gave Obama an

average o 82 percen suppor in 2008, signicanly higher han he Souhwes

swing saes average o 71 percen.

Bu in conras o he Souhwes saes, whie college-graduae voers are signi-

canly more supporive o he GOP, giving McCain an average 16-poin advanage

in 2008. And whie working-class voers in he New Souh swing saes, hough

hey are declining rapidly, are even more pro-GOP han in he Souhwes, giving

McCain an average 28-poin advanage. So he level and srengh o he minoriyvoe looms especially large o Obamas chances in hese saes.

Te dicul economic siuaions in Norh Carolina and above all Florida could,

however, undercu he minoriy voe, even as i alienaes whie college-graduae

voers and moves whie working-class voers closer o he GOP. Such a scenario

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would be a recipe or Republican success and he GOP nominee will work hard o

make i a realiy in 2012. Virginia is more promising or he Obama campaign, wih

a solid minoriy voe, a relaively riendly whie college-graduae populaion, a igh

link beween growing areas and increasing sympahy or he Democras, and a airly

decen economic siuaion. A srong eor by Obama in 2012 should have a good

chance o keeping his sae in his column.

Given he ndings in his paper, Obamas recen seps o dene he elecion on

more progressive erms hrough a commimen o a new jobs and growh program

and a deci reducion plan based on shared sacrice will likely aid he presiden

poliically. Public polling over he pas year suggess ha a susained posure o

deending he middle class, supporing popular governmen programs, and calling

or a more equiable ax disribuion will be popular among many key demographic

groups necessary o win in he 12 batleground saes analyzed here.

Te ndings in he paper also indicae ha Republicans can maximize heir

chances o vicory by ocusing almos exclusively on he economy. Bu heywill need o downplay heir more divisive posiions on religion, social issues,

The 2012 Battleground

Key battleground states for 2012

Democratic vote

5741

5543

5445

5444

5444

5642

5147

5444

5346

49.749.4

5148

5742

FL

NC

VA

PA

OH

IA

MN

CO

NM

NV

MI

WI

*2008 Election results.

Republican vote

D--2008 R--2008Projected Share

Change, 2008-12

Minorities 80 20 2

White college graduates 47 51 1

White working class 40 58 -3

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immigraion, and he more exreme ea Pary posiions on popular governmen

programs such as Social Securiy and Medicare.

Te sage is se or a showdown o demographics versus economics in he 2012 elec-

ion. Each side has clear srenghs bu also very serious weaknesses as hey move ino

his showdown. Vicory will likely go o he side mos willing o acknowledge heirweaknesses and atack hem boldly. Tis will be no elecion or he ain-heared.

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Demography of the path to 270

Presidenial incumbens enjoy numerous srucural advanages over challengers,

including he power o he oce isel, srong name recogniion and amiliariy

among he public, and well-esablished organizaional and undraising capaciies.

Examining elecions rom 1788 o 2004, presidenial elecion scholar David Mayhew

has shown ha in-oce poliical paries have held he Whie House in wo-hirds

o elecions when running an incumben compared o only hal o he elecions

wih open-seas. Poliical scieniss have also long esablished he imporance o he

economy, in paricular he direcion o overall growh, income, and employmen, indeermining presidenial oucomes.

Te balance o incumbency versus he economy in deermining he oucome reduces

he cerainy o any elecoral predicions, so our analysis will examine how Presiden

Obama and his poenial GOP challenger migh are in erms o demographic and

geographic suppor in 2012. Since we do no know he acual GOP nominee a his

poin, he analysis will ocus primarily on he poenial sanding o Presiden Obama

in relaion o his 2008 baseline suppor and compare ha wih he poenial suppor

o an unknown Republican challenger in relaion o 2008 perormance.

Te challenging poliical siuaion or he Democras indicaes ha Obamas re-

elecion is hardly a sure hing. Equally, he Republican pary remains unpopular

and no poenial candidae has shown convincingly ha hey have wide appeal

ouside he Republican base, so hey will sruggle o bea Obama despie his mani-

es weaknesses. Ta much is clear. Te quesion hen becomes how each side

can ake advanage o heir opporuniies and reach 270 elecoral voes, given he

curren poliical environmen and srucure o voer inclinaions.

Sar wih he basic conours o he Obama coaliion on he naional level. IObama is able o keep his coaliion ogeher a close o is 2008 levels, hen he will

likely be able o pu ogeher enough saes o reach 270 and beyond. Conversely,

Republicans will no be able o capure he presidency unless hey are able o

make signican inroads ino he presidens 2008 coaliion.

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Communities of color, white college graduates, and the white

working class

Te hear o he Obama coaliion is he minoriy voe. In 2008, Obama received

80 percen suppor rom communiies o color, who made up 26 percen o all vo-

ers. Will he replicae ha perormance in 2012?

Consider rs he probable minoriy share o he voe in 2012. Recenly released

daa rom he 2010 Census underscore jus how as he his populaion is growing

in he Unied Saes. Te minoriy populaion over he las decade increased by 30

percen (Hispanics alone grew by 43 percen),6 while he whie populaion grew

by a mere 1 percen.7 Because o his dramaic dierence in growh raes, commu-

niies o color accouned or virually all (92 percen) o he counrys populaion

growh over he decade. And he overall minoriy share o he populaion icked

seadily upward while he whie share declined. Te 2010 minoriy share o he

populaion was 36 percen, up more han 5 percenage poins over 2000. Tas arae o increase o around hal a poin a year over he decade.

Applying ha rae o he our years beween 2008 and 2012 indicaes ha he

minoriy share o voers should be abou 28 percen in 2012, up rom 26 percen

in 2008. O course, ha rae is based on he overall minoriy populaion, no vo-

ers. Should he rae o increase be lowered o accoun or his dierence? No, i

anyhing i should be increased. Exi poll daa show minoriy voe share increasing

a a aser rae las decade han overall populaion growh, so a 2 poin esimaed

increase in minoriy voe share may acually be conservaive.8

So Obama will likely have signicanly more voers rom communiies o color o

work wih in 2012. Bu can he plausibly hope o mainain his 80 percen suppor

among minoriy voers? Cerainly his general suppor rom hese voers remains

high, especially among blacks, bu ha level o suppor will be dicul o obain

in 2012. Democraic presidenial suppor among minoriies was lower in he wo

oher presidenial elecions o he las decade: 71 percen in 2004 and 75 percen

in 2000. A cauious esimae would pu Obamas minoriy suppor in 2012 in he

mid-range o recen resuls75 percenraher han a he 2008 level.9

Overall hen a reasonable expecaion or 2012 is ha he minoriy share o voers

will rise o around 28 percen, and ha 75 percen o hose voers will suppor

Obama. I should be noed, however, ha he poor economy could undercu his

esimae. I economic pessimism is high enough, minoriy enhusiasm or Obama

A reasonable

expectation or

2012 is that the

minority share

o voters will rise

to around 28

percent, and tha

75 percent o

those voters wil

support Obama

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may decline o he poin where even he 75 percen suppor gure is dicul

o atain. Hispanic suppor could be a paricular problem given recen Obama

job approval raings o 50 percen or less among his group, which may allow

Republicans o make inroads among Hispanics.10

Whie voers o course are a dieren sory; under any scenario, Obama will doar worse among hese voers. No all whie voers are he same, however, and i is

useul o break hem down beween he growing college-educaed group,11 where

Democras perormance has seadily improved, and he rapidly declining noncol-

lege or working-class group,12 where Democras have made litle progress over he

las wo decades. For reerence, Republicans won his later group by 20 poins in

1988 and won hem by nearly as much, 18 poins, in 2008.

Consider rs how he share o voers among hese wo groups is likely o change.

Te whie working-class share o voers declined by 15 percenage poins beween

he 1988 and 2008 presidenial elecions, while he college-educaed whieshare increased by 4 poins. Tis projecs o a urher decline o 3 poins in whie

working-class represenaion in he 2012 elecion and a gain o abou a poin or

college-educaed whies. So he underlying demographic composiion o he

whie voe is likely o shi in Obamas avor in he 2012 elecion.

Wih hese changes in mind, we can now ocus in on how 2012 suppor levels

among hese wo dieren groups o whie voers will ranslae ino an Obama

or Republican vicory. Firs o all, i Obama receives similar suppor in 2012 as

in 2008 (a 4-poin deci among whie college graduaes and an 18-poin deci

among whie working-class voers) he will win he popular voe by abou as much

as he did in his rs elecion bid, even i his minoriy suppor drops rom 80 per-

cen o 75 percen as we have conservaively assumed.

Indeed, he will sill win he popular voe (50-48) in his scenario i whie working-

class suppor replicaes he sunning 30-poin deci congressional Democras

suered in 2010 bu whie college-graduae suppor remains seady. Ta is

remarkable. I whie college-graduae suppor also replicaes is relaively poor

2010 perormance or he Democras (a 19 poin deci), however, Republicans

will win he popular voe by 3 poins (50-47).

Anoher way o illusraing how poorly Obama can do beween hese wo groups

o whie voers and sill win is o use Democraic presidenial suppor raes rom

he 2004 elecion. In his scenario, Obama would lose he whie working-class

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voe by 23 poins and he whie college-graduae voe by 11 poins as Kerry did in

2004. Obama would sill win he popular voe by 50-48 i ha happened,13 indica-

ing jus how much he counry has changed in he eigh years since Kerrys deea.

In summary, given solid, bu no excepional, perormance among minoriy vo-

ers, Obamas re-elecion depends on eiher holding his 2008 whie college-grad-uae suppor, in which case he can survive a landslide deea o 2010 proporions

among whie working-class voers, or holding his slippage among boh groups o

around 2004 levels, in which case he can sill squeak ou a vicory. Conversely, i

Republicans can cu signicanly ino Obamas whie college-graduae suppor

and hen replicae he landslide margins hey achieved among whie working-class

voers in 2010, hey are likely o emerge vicorious.

Obamas condiions or vicory do no seem like high barriers. Bu hey sill

may be dicul o mee in he poliical environmen o he 2012 elecion, as

Republicans are likely o work aggressively o win suppor in hese groups. In heconcluding secion o he paper, we discuss wha each pary mus do o maximize

heir chances o winning he presidency, given hese parameers.

Other demographics

wo oher key demographics or 2012 are young voersmembers o he

Millennial generaion (dened here as hose born in he years 1978-2000)and

unmarried women. Te 18-o-29-year-old age group (all Millennials) voed 66-32

in Obamas avor in 2008 and made up 18 percen o voers. Moreover, ha 18

percen gure acually undersaed he level o Millennial infuence in ha elecion

because he 18-o-29-year-old group did no include he oldes Millennialshe

30-year-olds who were born in 1978. Once hey are gured in, a reasonable esi-

mae is ha Millennials made up around 20 percen o he voe in 2008.

And ha gure should be signicanly larger in 2012 as more Millennials ener

he voing pool. Abou 48 million Millennials were ciizen-eligible voers in 2008

and ha number has been increasing a a rae o abou 4 million a year. When

Millennials make up he enire 18-34 age group in 2012, here will be 64 millionMillennial eligible voers29 percen o all eligible voers. Assuming a reasonable

urnou perormance, ha should ranslae ino roughly 35 million Millennials

who cas ballos in 2012 and an esimaed 26 percen o all voers.

I Republicanscan cut

signifcantly

into Obamas

white college-

graduate suppo

and replicate

landslide margin

among white

working-class

voters, they are

likely to emerge

victorious.

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Bu will 2012 see solid youh urnou perormance? Economic pessimism has

also aken is poliical oll among his group, which is no surprising given how

hard he poor economy has hi young people. Obama approval among he

18-o-29-year-old age group was 57 percen agains 35 percen disapproval in

an Augus Pew poll.14 Tis is considerably below his margin o suppor among

hese voers in 2008, and down signicanly rom he 30-poin approval spreadshe enjoyed earlier in he year. Tis suggess a lack o enhusiasm or Obama ha

could ranslae ino low 2012 urnou among young voers who are ypically

he mos volaile o all age groups. When young voer enhusiasm was epid in

he 2010 elecion, he 18-29 year old voe share dropped rom 18 percen o 12

percen, low even or an o-year elecion.

For hese reasons, i is unlikely ha Obama will be able o reain ha 66 percen

suppor level rom 2008. Young voers sill l ike Obama bu hey clearly don

like him he way hey once did. Te Democras pary idenicaion advanage

among 18-29 year olds has declined rom is peak o 28 poins in 2008 o 13poins oday.15 And congressional Democras received jus 55-42 suppor rom

18-29 year olds in 2010. Obama will seek o do beter han ha, and minimize

he slippage rom his 2008 suppor, while Republicans will hope ha economic

pessimism and disappoined expecaions will lower youh urnou and/or drive

youh suppor o he GOP.

Unmarried women were also srong Obama supporers in 2008, avoring him by

a 70-29 margin. Unmarried women now make up almos hal, 47 percen, o adul

women, up rom 38 percen in 1970.16 Teir curren share o he voer poola

quarer o eligible voers17is nearly he size o whie evangelical proesans, he

GOPs larges base group. And since he growh rae o unmarried women is so

as (double ha o married women) he proporion o unmarried women in he

voing pool will coninue o increase.18

Tere is every expecaion ha his burgeoning populaion o unmarried women

will coninue o lean heavily Democraic in is poliics. Survey daa consisenly

show his group o be unusually populis on economic issues and generally

opposed o he GOP agenda on oreign policy and social issues.19 Jus as wih he

Millennials, however, he economic siuaion has aken a heavy oll on his groupand economic pessimism is rampan. And, jus as wih he Millennials, ha gives

Republicans an opening o cu ino Obamas large margins rom 2008.

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Geography of the path to 270

Te discussion above ocused on he naional popular voe. By and large, he

naional popular voe is a good guide o predicing he acual winner o he presi-

denial elecion. In ac, he winner o he popular voe no only ypically wins

he Elecoral College voe, bu wins i by a wider margin han heir popular voe

margin. Neverheless, he presidenial winner is, in he end, deermined by who

can assemble a sae-by-sae coaliion o a leas 270 elecoral voes, or EVs. I is o

ha sae-by-sae coaliion ha we now urn.

Core Obama and GOP states

Obama carried 27 saes plus he Disric o Columbia and Nebraskas second

Congressional disric or a oal o 365 elecoral voes in 2008. Democras have

carried 18 o hese saes plus D.C., or a oal o 242 EVs (based on he new

apporionmen rom he 2010 Census), in every elecion since 1992. O hese 18,

Obama is almos cerain o carry 14 o hem (Caliornia, Connecicu, Delaware,

Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusets, New Jersey, New York, Oregon,

Rhode Island, Vermon, and Washingon) plus D.C. in 2012 or a oal o 186 EVs.

Tese are Obamas core saes, won easily by he Democraic candidae or ve

sraigh elecions and unlikely o be seriously conesed in his elecion eiher. 20 Bu

o course, hese core saes are ar shor o a majoriy and Obama will sill need 84

more EVs rom some combinaion o saes o acually win he presidency.

Republicans carried 22 saes (Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia,

Idaho, Kansas, Kenucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Monana, Nebraska,

Norh Dakoa, Oklahoma, Souh Carolina, Souh Dakoa, ennessee, exas,Uah, Wes Virginia and Wyoming) plus he res o Nebraskas CDs or a oal

o 173 EVs in 2008. Tey are almos cerain o carry all o hese in 2012 plus

Nebraskas rs Congressional Disric and Indiana or a oal o 191 EVs. Tis

is also ar shor o a majoriy, meaning ha Republicans wil l need 79 addiional

EVs o capure he presidency.

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Wih he excepion o New Hampshire, he addiional saes Obama and he Republicans

need can come rom hree broad geographic areas: he Midwes/Rus Bel, he

Souhwes, and he New Souh. Tey are all saes ha were carried by Obama in 2008.

The Midwest/Rust Belt

Te Midwes/Rus Bel saes ha are likely o be seriously in play beween Obama and

he GOP nominee are:

Iowa (6 EVs) Michigan (16 EVs) Minnesoa (10 EVs) Ohio (18 EVs) Pennsylvania (20 EVs)Wisconsin (10 EVs)

Te Republicans appear likely o pick up Indiana (11 EVs), even hough Obama

carried i in 2008, as well as keep Missouri (10 EVs), where Obama los in 2008 by

only one-eighh o a percenage poin. All ogeher, he six arge saes in play have

80 EVs and would ge Obama very close o he 270 hreshold when combined wih

his core saes. And i Obama carried New Hampshire (4 EVs) in addiion o he

six Midwes/Rus Bel saes ha would pu him a exacly 270 wihou any o he

Souhwes or New Souh saes in play.

Conversely, i Republicans can pick up several saes in his regionhey have litle

chance o aking hem allhey will have a ligher li in he Souhwes and New Souh.

For example, i Republicans carried Ohio and Pennsylvania, hen ha would provide

almos hal he EVs hey need o add o heir core saes. Te res could be provided by

Florida and any oher New Souh sae.

Te six Midwes/Rus Bel saes are all slow growing wih an average populaion

growh rae (3.7 percen beween 2000 and 2010),21 well below he naional average

o 9.7 percen. Consisen wih his slow overall growh, hese saes minoriy popu-

laion share has also grown relaively slowlya 3.8 percenage poin shi over heime period compared o 5.4 poins or he naion as a whole. Tus no only are hese

saes whier han he naional average (an average o 82 percen vs. 64 percen or he

naion), heir race-ehnic composiion is shiing more slowly. Tis is a more avorable

dynamic or he GOP han in he wo oher swing regions.

We will now discuss hese saes in deail in descending order o EVs.

The six Midw

Rust Belt stat

are all slow

growing with

an average

population

growth rate (

percent betw

2000 and 20

well below th

national aver

o 9.7 percen

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Pennsylvania

ALLEGHENY CO.

NORTH AND CENTRALNORTHEAST

PITTSBURGHSUBURBS AND ERIE

Counties

Metropolitan Areas

REGIONS

Erie

JohnstownAltoona

State College

Youngstown-Warren-Boardman

Williamsport

Reading

PHILADELPHIA SUBURBS

Allentown-Bethlehem-

Easton, PA-NJ

Scranton-Wilkes-Barre

New York-Newark-Bridgeport

Harrisburg

LebanonYork-HanoverLancaster

SOUTHEAST

PHILADELPHIA


Change, 2008-12

Minorities 86 13 2

White college graduates 52 47 3White working class 42 57 -5

Pennsylvania20 electoral votes

Democraic presidenial candidaes have won his sae ve sraigh imes going back

o 1992. Obama won he sae by 10 poins in 2008, a considerable improvemen over

Kerrys 3-poin and Gores 4-poin vicories in heir presidenial runs. Obamas solid vic-

ory came despie an excepionally srong eor by McCain o fip he sae.

Communiies o color made up 19 percen o Pennsylvanias voe in 2008 and voed 86

percen or Obama. Exrapolaing rom exi poll and Census daa,22 minoriies should

compose abou 21 percen o he 2012 Pennsylvania elecorae. Tis increased minoriy

voe share should help Obama.

Conversely, we would expec a 2-poin drop in he whie share o voers, who slighly

avored McCain by 51-48. Tis 51-48 gure, however, conceals very dieren paterns

among whie working-class and whie college-graduae voers. Whie college graduaes

suppored Obama 52-47, while whie working-class voers suppored McCain by 57-42.

Good news or Obama is ha he shrinking whie voer pool should produce a 5-poindecrease in whie working-class voers and a 3-poin increase in whie college graduaes

in 2012.23 So Obamas Pennsylvania coaliion may be hough o as a growh coaliion

ha links communiies o color wih he growing par o he whie populaion, while he

Republican coaliion is rooed in a rapidly declining group.

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Looking jus a hese likely shis in he voer pool, Obama would be expeced o

win by a wider margin in 2012. His growing coaliion should be larger and he

declining coaliion smaller. Bu wo criical acors could undercu his voe oals.

Te rs is ha he growing groups ha suppored him in 2008 migh no sup-

por him a he same level in 2012, and perhaps no urn ou he same raes, which

could reduce his dividend rom demographic change.

ake communiies o color, or example. As noed, Obama received 86 percen sup-

por rom minoriies in 2008. Ta unusually high gure refeced Obamas 95 percen

suppor among Pennsylvanias black voers and he ac ha blacks made up wo-hirds

o Pennsylvanias minoriy voers compared o hal o minoriy voers naionwide. Some

all-o rom 95 percen suppor seems very possible, however, i economic pessimism

akes a signican oll on black enhusiasm or Obama, as some recen daa sugges.24

Hispanic enhusiasm or Obama migh fag or he same reason, perhaps exacerbaed

by impaience on he immigraion issue, which could bring down heir 2008 72 percen

suppor rae. Ta would urher erode Obamas overall minoriy suppor level in 2012.

Even less secure is Obamas hold on whie college graduaes in he sae. Te move

oward Democras is a recen rend among his growing group and could easily be

reversed by disappoined expecaionssuch as a lack o economic mobiliy due o

coninued economic sagnaion.

Obamas second big problem is perhaps he GOPs bes opporuniy. Ta is a worsen-

ing siuaion among he group already hosile o him: he whie working class. Indeed,

in 2008 Obama acually did worse among hese voers in Pennsylvania (losing hem

by 15 poins) han Kerry did in 2004. I hey swing urher away rom him in 2012, and

approach he 30-poin naionwide deci Democras suered in 2010, i could hand he

Keysone sae o he GOP.

Breaking down suppor paterns geographically provides anoher lens on Obamas and

he GOPs chances in he sae. Here we also see he growh and decline patern we saw

wih demographic groups. In a nushell, Democras presidenial voing srengh has

been increasing in growing areas o he sae, while Republicans have held heir own

only in declining pars o he sae.

Te growing areas o Pennsylvania are mosly locaed in hree regions,25 all in he easern

par o he sae: he norheas, conaining he Allenown and Reading mero areas;

he souheas, conaining he York, Lancaser, and Harrisburg mero areas; and he

Philadelphia suburbs. Tese regions are all noable or having added large numbers o

minoriy and whie college-graduae voers las decade.26

I white working

class voters swin

urther away ro

Obama in 2012,

it could hand th

Keystone state t

the GOP.

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Obama carried he Philadelphia suburbs (which grew by 6 percen beween 2000 and

2010, wih he minoriy populaion up 51 percen) by 16 poins in 2008, a 9-poin

improvemen over Kerrys margin in 2004. Te shi is even larger over he long erm:

Democras have enjoyed a specacular 39-poin improvemen in heir margin in he

Philadelphia suburbs since 1988.

In he norheas region, which grew by 8 percen beween 2000 and 2010, wih he

minoriy populaion up 97 percen, Obama improved even more over Kerrys 2004

perormance, carrying he region by 10 poins, an 11-poin shi oward Democras in

2008. Tis shi included Democraic swings o 16 poins and 11 poins, respecively,

in he relaively as-growing Reading (up 10 percen) and Allenown (up 12 percen)

mero areas. Te enire norheas region has moved oward Democraic presidenial

candidaes by 22 poins since 1988.

Democras acually go heir larges incremen o suppor in he souheas region, he

ases-growing region in he sae (which grew by 11 percen, wih he minoriy popula-ion up 59 percen). Here hey improved over Kerrys perormance by 16 poins, wih

pro-Democraic shis o 20, 16, and 15 poins, respecively, in he hree as-growing

mero areas ha dominae he region: Lancaser (up 10 percen), Harrisburg (up 8 per-

cen) and York (up 14 percen). Te overall shi reduced he Democraic deci in he

region o 12 poins, down rom 28 poins in 2004a huge blow o GOP eors in he

sae. Tis ormerly rock-ribbed Republican region has shied oward he Democras by

20 poins since 1988.

ogeher, hese hree growing regions conribued 52 percen o he Pennsylvania voe.

Add in Philadelphia isel, where Democras dominae by lopsided margins (67 poins

in 2008), and ha akes you o 64 percen o he saewide voe. Ta leaves only 36 per-

cen o he voe in he res o Pennsylvania, which has been losing populaion bu where

he GOP has experienced some avorable rends.

In 2008, however, Republicans could no improve on heir 2004 perormance in

Allegheny Couny, which conains Pitsburgh and is down 5 percen in populaion

since 2000, and in he Pitsburgh suburbs/Erie region, which shrank by 2 percen. Boh

regions shied oward Republicans over he 1988 o 2004 perioda 5-poin shi in

Allegheny couny and an 18-poin shi in he Pitsburgh suburbs/Eriebu he GOPmanaged no urher improvemen in 2008. And in he conservaive Norh and Cenral

region o Pennsylvania (unchanged in populaion) McCain acually did 9 poins worse

han Bush did in 2004.

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Tus, Obamas coaliion o he ascendan27 in Pennsylvania included no jus growing

groups bu increasing suppor in growing regions. Given his, our more years o popula-

ion growh should srenghen Obamas posiion in 2012. Bu as wih growing groups,

his voe oals could be undercu by doing signicanly worse in declining areas and

no doing as well in growing areas. Since he declining areas are only 36 percen o he

saewide voe, i is likely he later areas will prove decisive. O he growing areas, hePhiladelphia suburbs are he larges and make up 22 percen o he saewide voe while

he souheas is he one mos sympaheic o he GOP. I hese areas swing signicanly

oward he Republicans, ha could deliver he sae o he GOP.

More broadly, he quesion posed by hese daa is wheher a coaliion based on grow-

ing groups and improved suppor in growing regions can survive a siuaion where very

litle economic growh is occurring. While unemploymen is no paricularly high by

naional sandards (8.5 percen,28 wih he Philadelphia mero area a 9.1 percen and

he Allenown mero area a 9 percen) i is high enough o cause signican pain and

provide ample grounds or economic pessimism. Tis suggess ha, despie Obamasdecen average approval raing in he rs hal o 2011 (48 percen) and avorable demo-

graphic shis in he sae, he GOP has a serious sho a he sae in 2012.

Ohio18 electoral votes

Obama won Ohio by 5 poins in 2008, a Democraic breakhrough aer he GOPs

2-poin vicory in 2004 and 4-poin vicory in 2000. Communiies o color made up

17 percen o Ohios voe in 2008 and voed 83 percen or Obama. Based on exi poll

and Census daa,29 minoriies should accoun or 18 percen o he 2012 Ohio elecor-

ae, a sligh increase ha should help Obama.

Tis means here should be a 1-poin drop in he whie share o voers, who

avored McCain by 52-46. Tis 52-46 gure, however, obscures very dieren

paterns among whie working-class and whie college-graduae voers. Ohios

whie college graduaes spli evenly beween McCain and Obama, while whie

working-class voers suppored McCain by 54-44.

Given hese paterns, Obama should bene rom ongoing shis in he decliningwhie voer pool ha are likely o produce a 3-poin decrease in whie working-

class voers and a 2-poin increase in whie college graduaes in 2012. 30 So, as wih

Pennsylvania hough no as srongly, Obamas Ohio coaliion may be hough o as a

growh coaliion ha links communiies o color wih he growing par o he whie

populaion, while he GOP coaliion is rooed in he declining secor o whies.

The questionposed by these

data is whether

a coalition base

on growing

groups and

improved

support in

growing region

can survive

a situation

where very little

economic grow

is occurring.

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Ohio

NORTHWEST

NORTHEAST

SOUTH

Counties

Metropolitan Areas

REGIONS

CINCINNATIMETRO

COLUMBUSSUBURBS

CLEVELANDSUBURBS

CUYAHOGACO.

FRANKINCO.

Toledo

MansfieldLima

Dayton

Springflied

Sandusky

Canton

Akron

Youngstown

Weirton

Wheeling

Parkersburg

Huntington


Change, 2008-12

Minorities 83 16 1



Based jus on hese likely shis in he voer pool, Obama would be expeced o

win by a wider margin in 2012, as his growing coaliion expands and he GOP

declining coaliion conracs. Bu his suppor levels wihin he growh coaliion

migh no hold. As noed, Obama received 83 percen suppor rom minoriies

in 2008. Ta gure was driven by Obamas 97 percen suppor among Ohios

black voers, who made up abou wo-hirds o he minoriy voe. In ligh o he

economic siuaion and he less hisoric naure o he upcoming campaign, some

allo rom ha 97 percen gure seems likely. Ta would o course bring down

Obamas overall suppor level rom minoriies in 2012.

Whie college graduaes, he oher par o his growh coaliion, could presen a

more serious problem or Obama. When Kerry los he sae back in 2004, he rana 16-poin deci among his group (42-58). Obamas break-even perormance

was hereore a signican achievemen bu also perhaps a enuous one. Signican

movemen back oward he GOP among his group is a very real possibiliy.

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Finally, he economic siuaion seems likely o srenghen GOP suppor among

he group mos sympaheic o hem: he whie working class. McCain won hese

voers by 10 poins in 2008. Tere is ample room or a sharper swing oward he

GOP in 2012, and depending on he deph o ha swing, i could cerainly ip he

sae o he Republicans, paricularly i Obamas base weakens.

urning o geographic voing paerns, Ohio is growing paricularly slowly

up less han 2 percen since 2000. Bu here is quie a bi o variaion wihin

he sae, wih some areas growing airly rapidly and ohers barely growing a

all or declining. I is in he growh areas where Democras have been making

heir bigges gains.

Te Columbus mero area, which accouns or 15 percen o he saewide voe,

is easily he ases growing area in he sae. Te populaion has grown by 14 per-

cen since 2000, and he minoriy populaion is up 45 percen. Compared o oher

pars o Ohio, he Columbus mero area has seen he bigges decline in he shareo whie working-class eligible voers and he sharpes increases in he shares o

whie college graduae and minoriy voers.31 Obama carried he area by 4 poins

in 2008, a 9-poin improvemen over Kerry in 2004.

Obama did beter han Kerry by abou he same amoun in he very as-growing

Columbus suburbs, which have grown by 24 percen since 2000, wih he minor-

iy populaion up 97 percen, as well as in Franklin Couny, he cenral couny o

he mero area ha conains he urban core. Indeed, Obama did especially well in

he emerging suburb o Delaware Counyby ar he ases-growing couny in

he Columbus suburbs and in Ohio as a wholewhich grew by 58 percen since

2000, wih he minoriy populaion up 187 percen. He improved on Kerrys per-

ormance in he couny by 13 poins.

Tere has been a 31-poin pro-Democraic presidenial voing swing in he

Columbus mero area since 1988. Tis includes an incredible 40-poin swing in

Franklin Couny and a 20-poin swing in he Columbus suburbs.

Te second ases-growing mero area in he sae is he Cincinnai mero area,

which accouns or 14 percen o he saewide voe, hough is growh rae is a armore modes 4 percen (wih he minoriy populaion up 25 percen) since 2000.

Here Obama also regisered a 9-poin improvemen over 2004, including no only an

11-poin shi in Hamilon Couny, he cenral couny ha conains Cincinnai, bu

also subsanial shis in he conservaive suburb o Buler (9 poins) and even he

ulraconservaive emerging suburb o Warren (8 poins), he second ases-growing

There has been

a 31-point pro-

Democratic

presidential

voting swing in

the Columbus

metro area since

1988.

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couny in Ohio (34 percen growh since 2000). Te Cincinnai mero area as a

whole has swung oward Democras by 18 poins in presidenial voing since 1988.

Te oher par o Ohio where Obama made subsanial progress is he norhwes

region,32 which includes he oledo mero area, several smaller mero areas, and

many rural counies ha are mosly declining in populaion. Here, here was aDemocraic swing o 11 poins beween 2004 and 2008, and Obama spli he

region evenly wih McCain. Tis region has experienced a 17-poin swing oward

Democras since 1988.

Shis beween 2004 and 2008 were more modes in he res o Ohio. Boh

Cuyahoga Couny (he cenral couny o he Cleveland mero area) and he

Cleveland suburbs had pro-Democraic margin shis o jus 4 poins. Even wih

his modes shi, however, he Cleveland mero area as a whole, which accouns

or 18 percen o he saewide voe, sill wen or Obama by 25 poinsa

15-poin Democraic swing relaive o 1988.

Te norheas region, which includes he Akron, Canon, and Youngsown mero

areas, had a Democraic swing o only 3 poins, and he souh region, which

includes he Dayon mero area and a grea many rural counies, a mere 2 poins.

Te norheas region, which sill leans Democraic (53 percen o 45 percen in

2008) has also experienced he leas change since 1988a comparaively iny

5-poin improvemen in Democraic suppor.

Tese rends in he growing pars o his very slow-growh sae srenghened

Obamas Ohio coaliion. Bu will hese rends hold up in 2012? Some o hese

growing areas, such as he Columbus suburbs and he Cincinnai mero area, are

more Democra-riendly han hey used o be bu remain airly conservaive and

are erile ground or a poenial GOP resurgence. And Republican gains in he

growing par o Ohio would pu a grea deal o pressure on Democraic peror-

mance in he Cleveland mero area and in he norheas where, as we have seen,

Democras made only weak gains in 2008.

In all hese areas, he eec o he economy will loom large. Ohios unemploy-

men rae sands a 8.8 percen, wih worse raes in norheas mero areas suchas Canon and Youngsown (boh 9.4 percen) as well as he mos imporan

mero areas in he norhwes (oledo, 9.6 percen) and he souh (Dayon, 9.4

percen). Te Cincinnai mero area is abou a he saewide average, while, in

possible good news or Obama, raes are lower in he Columbus (7.8 percen) and

Cleveland (8 percen) mero areas.

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More helpul or he GOP, Obamas approval raing averaged an unimpressive 45

percen in rs hal o 2011 according o Gallup. I is worh noing, however, ha

Governor John Kasich, who was eleced in he GOP wave o 2010 and who has

pursued very hard line conservaive policies, including a ban on collecive

bargaining or sae employees which was hen overurned by reerendum, has been

sporing an average approval raing o jus 36 percen, wih 53 percen disapproval.33

Ta may help Obama sell his approach by conras. However, here is no gainsaying

he ac ha, wihou signican economic improvemen, Republicans have an excel-

len chance o aking back his sae.

Michigan16 electoral votes

Obama won Michigan quie easily in 2008 (16 poin margin) and Democras have

won he sae ve sraigh imes. Bu in 2004 and 2000, he GOP came wihin 3

poins and 5 poins respecively so he sae can be very compeiive and is likelyo be so in he coming elecion.

Communiies o color made up 18 percen o Michigans voe in 2008 and voed

85 percen or Obama. Based on exi poll and Census daa,34 he minoriy voe

should accoun or 19 percen o he 2012 elecorae, a sligh increase over 2008.

Te fip side is a 1-poin drop in he whie share o voers, who also avored

Obama, hough by ar less (51-47). Bu paterns were signicanly dieren

among whie working class and whie college graduae voers. Michigans whie

college graduaes spli evenly beween McCain and Obama, while whie working

class voers acually suppored Obama by 52-46. Ta suggess ha, unusually, he

GOP may be slighly helped by ongoing shis in he declining whie voer pool ha are

reducing he weigh o whie working class voers.35

Te overall eec o likely shis in he voer pool in 2012 is hereore ambiguous. Te

real issue or Obama will be susaining his suppor levels among hese various groups.

He received 85 percen suppor rom minoriies in 2008, driven by 97 percen suppor

among Michigans black voers who made up wo-hirds o he minoriy voe.

Fallo rom ha 97 percen gure is plausible and could signicanly weaken hisoverall minoriy suppor in 2012. Obamas 64 percen suppor among Lainos, whose

weigh is much smaller bu growing, will also be imporan or him o mainain.

Whie college graduaes could provide a signican boos or he GOP i hey

dri away rom heir break-even perormance and back oward he 17-poin

Republican advanage Bush had among his group in 2004. Bu perhaps

Obama received

85 percent

support rom

minorities in

2008 in MI, drive

by 97 percent

support among

Michigans black

voters who mad

up two-thirds o

the minority vot

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Michigan

WAYNE CO.

Counties

Metropolitan Areas

REGIONS

SOUTHWEST

UNIVERSITYCORRIDOR

UPPER PENINSULA

CENTRAL

Jackson

Bay City

Grand Rapids-Wyoming

Holland-Grand-Haven

Kalamazoo-Portage

Niles-Benton-Harbor

Lansing-East Lansing

Battle Creek

MonroeAnn Arbor

Muskegon-NortonShores

Saginaw-SaginaTownship Nort

South Bend-Mishawaka

DETROITSUBURBS

Flint


Change, 2008-12

Minorities 85 14 1



Obamas chie challenge in Michigan will be mainaining his whie working-class

suppor. I seems unlikely he can duplicae his 6-poin advanage rom 2008 in

2012 given he curren economic siuaion. Te rick or him will be damage

minimizaionavoiding a massive pro-Republican shi among his group.

urning o geographic voing paterns, Michigan is he slowes growing sae in

he counry. In ac, i was he only sae wih negaive growh, acually declining

in populaion by 0.6 percen beween 2000 and 2010. Bu pars o Michigan did

grow. Te wo ases-growing regions, he Deroi suburbs and he souhwes, 36

each grew by 4 percen over he decade, wih communiies o color providing

essenially all he growh in boh areas.

Te Deroi suburbs are noable or showing he sharpes rends in he changes aec-

ing all Michigan regions: declining shares o whie working-class voers and increasing

shares o minoriy and whie college-graduae voers. Te later voers have been rend-

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ing excepionally sharply oward Democras in his region. Obama carried he Deroi

suburbs by 54 percen o 45 percen in 2008. Ta 9-poin margin was 12 poins beter

han Kerry did in 2004.

Looking back o 1988, Democras have made an impressive 33-poin improvemen

in heir presidenial voe margin in he Deroi suburbs. Tis is even greaer han heir28-poin gain over he ime period in Wayne Couny, he urban core o he Deroi mero

area. Tese improvemens have ranslaed ino overwhelming dominance (62 percen o

36 percen) o he Deroi mero area as a whole, 44 percen o he saewide voe.

Ineresingly, in he souhwes region, which is generally considered he mos con-

servaive in Michigan, Obama improved even more over Kerry han in he rela-

ively liberal Deroi suburbs. Kerry los he souhwes by 16 poins, so Obamas

modes 1-poin vicory in he region acually represened a 17-poin swing oward

he Democras. Even in he conservaive anchors o he region, he Grand Rapids

and as-growing Holland (up 11 percen, minoriies up 38 percen) meroareas, Obama posed big 18-poin and 20-poin improvemens, respecively,

and Democras improved heir posiion by 27 poins over he enire 1988-2008

period. Te souhwes region conribues abou a h o he saewide voe.

Te Universiy Corridor conribues anoher h o he saewide voe. Te

corridor is a cluser o counies o he immediae wes and souh o he Deroi

mero area ha includes he Lansing (Michigan Sae Universiy) and Ann Arbor

(Universiy o Michigan) mero areas. I is also he oher region o he sae where

some growh is aking place, paricularly in he relaively as-growing Ann Arbor

mero area, which has grown 7 percen in he las decade, making i he second-

ases mero-area growh rae in he sae. Obama carried he Universiy Corridor

by a very srong 61-38 margin, a 13-poin improvemen over Kerrys perormance.

Looking back o 1988, here has been a 23-poin pro-Democraic presidenial vo-

ing swing in his region.

Indeed, only in he lighly populaed cenral region and even more lighly popu-

laed upper peninsula region have Democraic gains since 1988 been under 20

poins. In he cenral region, he gain has been 16 poins and in he upper pen-

insula, he GOP managed o say almos even, slipping only 2 poins in he imeperiod. Bu he later region is only 3 percen o he saewide voe and is popula-

ion is down 2 percen in he las decade.

Tus, as in Ohio, Obamas Michigan coaliion was srenghened by avorable

rends in he growing pars o a very slow-growh sae (acually declining in his

In the southwes

region, which

is generally

considered

the most

conservative

in Michigan,

Obama improve

even more over

Kerry than in the

relatively liberal

Detroit suburbs

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case). Some o hese rends may be vulnerable as, or example, in he souhwes,

which is ar more sympaheic o he GOP han he Deroi suburbs or Universiy

Corridor. And he later areas oo could provide opporuniies or he Republicans

i he economic malaise runs deep a elecion ime.

And i cerainly migh. Michigans unemploymen rae sands a 11 percen, wihhe wors rae in he Deroi mero area, which sands a 12.9 percen. All mero

areas in he souhwes and six o seven mero areas in he Universiy Corridor

have raes well above 8 percen (Ann Arbor is he sole excepion). Despie he sad

economic siuaion, Obamas approval raing averaged a relaively high 50 percen

in he rs hal o 2011, according o Gallup. Obama may bene in he sae rom

Michigan voers posiive view o he auo bailou in he sae, a view ha is no

generally shared in he res o he counry, and rom he declining populariy o

Republican Gov. Rick Snyder (who has been around 40 percen approval and ne

negaive).37 Bu he excepionally poor economy will sill provide an opening or

he GOP in a sae ha should oherwise be an easy hold or Obama.

Minnesota10 electoral votes

Obama won Minnesoa wih a 10-poin margin in 2008. Democras have acually

won he sae nine sraigh imes. Te las ime he Democras los in a presiden-

ial elecion here is when Richard Nixon wiped ou George McGovern in 1972.

Te Democras margins were so small in 2004 and 2000 (3 poins and 2 poins,

respecively), however, ha he sae should be considered in play despie he

Democras curren winning sreak.

Communiies o color made up 10 percen o Minnesoas voe in 2008 and voed

71 percen or Obama. Based on exi poll and Census daa,38 minoriies should

increase o a leas 11 percen o he 2012 Minnesoa elecorae.

Ta implies a 1-poin drop in he whie share o voers, who avored Obama by

5346. Among whies, voing paterns among whie working-class and whie

college-graduae voers were signicanly dieren. Minnesoas whie working-class

voers suppored Obama bu only very narrowly (49-48) while he saes whiecollege graduaes gave him a srong 13-poin margin (56-43). Ta means Obama

should bene rom ongoing shis in he declining whie voer pool ha are likely

o produce a 3-poin decrease in whie working-class voers and a 2-poin increase

in whie college-graduae voers in 2012.39 Obamas Minnesoa coaliion is here-

ore he classic Democraic growh coaliion ha links communiies o color wih

he growing par o he whie populaion.

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Minnesota

SCOTT

LESUEUR

WASECA

Counties

Metropolitan Areas

Grand Forks(Part)

Fargo(Part)

Duluth

Minneapolis-St. Paul

Rochester

La Crosse

St. Cloud


Change, 2008-12

Minorities 71 27 1



Tese likely shis in he voer pool would, all else equal, produce a larger vicory

margin or Obama in 2012. And Obamas minoriy suppor, in conras o oher

swing saes, was no so high in 2008 ha he should have much diculy replica-

ing or surpassing ha level in 2012. Bu mainaining his srong advanage among

whie college graduaes may be dicul, as may be keeping his rough pariy wih

he GOP among whie working-class voers. Te later could be especially erile

ground or Republicans in he curren environmen. While Obama can aord

some slippage among his group, he sae could slip away rom him i here is

a powerul break oward he GOP, given how large hese voers sill weigh in

Minnesoas elecorae.

urning o geographic voing paterns, Minnesoa is a slow-growh sae (7.8 per-

cen growh compared o he naional average o 9.7 percen) bu is growing aser

han very slow-growh saes such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Tis

growh is driven above all by growh in he Minneapolis mero area, which pro-

vides 61 percen o he Minnesoa voe. Te Minneapolis mero area grew by 10

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percen beween 2000 and 2010, wih he minoriy populaion up by 54 percen

and providing 85 percen o populaion growh. Te nex larges mero area in

Minnesoa is he very slow growing Duluh mero area, which grew by 1 percen

and only provides 5 percen o he saewide voe. Ten come he Rocheser and

S. Cloud mero areas, which are airly as growing (up 14 percen and 13 percen,

respecively) bu provide only 3 percen each o Minnesoas voe.

So is air o say ha he real batle or Minnesoa will be ough in he

Minneapolis mero area, which gave Obama a 15-poin margin in 2008, 7 poins

larger han he margin he mero gave Kerry in 2004 in his very modes 3-poin

vicory. Demographically, he area is changing in ways ha should bene Obama,

as growh here is primarily ueled by communiies o color, bu he GOP will

vigorously ry o compress his margin by running up heir suppor in more GOP-

riendly ouer suburban counies such as Anoka, Scot, and Washingon.

In ha regard, Republicans will ry o use he bad economy agains Obama,which may mee wih some success. Minnesoa is in generally beter shape han a

number o oher Midwes and Rus Bel saes, however, wih an unemploymen

rae o 6.7 percen saewide and in he Minneapolis mero area. Ta will make

Republicans argumen weaker han in hese oher saes. In addiion, Obamas

approval raing averaged a solid 52 percen in he rs hal o 2011 according o

Gallup. All in all Minnesoa, compared o oher compeiive Midwes/Rus Bel

saes, should be a airly easy hold or Obama.

Wisconsin10 electoral votes

Obama won Wisconsin wih a 14-poin margin in 2008, and Democras have won

he sae six sraigh imes going back o 1988. Democras vicories in 2000 and

2004 were razor hin (0.2 poins and 0.4 poins respecively), however, so he sae

should be considered very compeiive.

Communiies o color made up 12 percen o Wisconsins voe in 2008 and voed

80 percen or Obama. Based on exi poll and Census daa,40 minoriies should

accoun or a leas 13 percen in he 2012 Wisconsin elecorae.

Ta implies a 1-poin drop in he whie share o voers, who avored Obama

by 54-45. Among whies, voing paterns among whie working-class and whie

college-graduae voers diered hough no as much as in some oher saes.

The real battle o

Minnesota will

be ought in the

Minneapolis me

area, which gav

Obama a 15-po

margin in 2008,

points larger tha

the margin the

metro gave Kerr

in 2004.

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Wisconsins whie working-class voers suppored Obama by 52-47 while he

saes whie college graduaes gave him a sronger 12-poin margin (56-44).

Obama should hereore bene modesly rom ongoing shis in he declining

whie voer pool, which are likely o produce a 2-poin decrease in whie working-

class voers and a 1-poin increase in whie college graduaes in 2012.41

Tese likely shis in he composiion o he voer pool should bene Obama

in 2012. Bu he will have o avoid crippling losses in voer suppor among key

groups. Obamas minoriy suppor needs o remain very high and here is cerainly

poenial or allo in his 91 percen suppor rom black voers or 73 percen suppor

rom Hispanics, he prime driver o Wisconsins increasing minoriy populaion.

Mainaining his srong advanage among whie college graduaes will be more

dicul. Some pro-GOP atriion oward 2004s more modes 50-49 Democraic

margin seems ineviable. I ha occurs, Obama will be vulnerable o a collapse in his

whie working-class suppor. Kerry ran an 8-poin deci among his group in 2004.

I Obama alls arher han ha, he GOP could have a real chance in he sae.

Wisconsin

WRIGHT

CountiesMetropolitan Areas

Duluth

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Blooomington

Janesville

La Crosse

Eau Claire Wausau

Madison

Fond du Lac

Milwaukee-Waukesha

Sheboygan

Green Bay

Racine

Oshkosh

Chicago-Naperville-

Michigan City

Appelton


Change, 2008-12

Minorities 80 19 1



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urning o geographic voing paterns, Wisconsin, like Minnesoa, is a slow-

growh sae (6 percen compared o he naional average o 9.7 percen) bu

is growing aser han very slow-growh saes such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and

Michigan. Te ases growing mero area is he Madison mero area, he second

larges in he sae, which has grown 13 percen in he las decade. Te minor-

iy populaion in his area has grown by 65 percen, accouning or 54 perceno growh. Madison conribues 15 percen o he saewide voe and has shied

o he Democras in presidenial voing by 27 poins since 1988. Obama carried

Madison by a sunning 44 poins in 2008.

Te Milwaukee mero area, he larges in he sae, accouns or 38 percen o

he saewide voe. In conras o Madison, i is relaively slow growing, up only

4 percen. Minoriy populaion in he area grew by 26 percen and accouned or

178 percen o populaion growhin oher words, wihou minoriy growh,

he Milwaukee mero area would have experienced signican decline. Te

area gave Obama a 9-poin margin in 2008, only a modes 2 poins greaer hanDukakiss margin in 1988.

Milwaukee and Madison alone accoun or over hal (53 percen) o he sae-

wide voe so he cones or Wisconsin will cener on hese wo mero areas.

In paricular, he GOP will be seeking o move he Milwaukee mero area back

oward he break-even poin (where Bush was in 2004), which would pu he

Democraic hold on he sae in real danger. Republicans will also pu pressure

on Democraic perormance in smaller mero areas such as Green Bay (7 per-

cen o he saewide voe), Appleon (5 percen), Racine (5 percen), Janesville

(4 percen), Eau Claire (4 percen), and Oshkosh (4 percen) where Obama

made srong gains over Kerry in 2008.

In all hese areas, he eec o he economy will loom large. Wisconsins unem-

ploymen rae sands a 7.3 percen, wih worse raes in mero areas such as

Janesville and Racine (boh 9.2 percen) and, mos signicanly, Milwaukee (8

percen). On he oher hand, he very Obama-riendly Madison mero area has

he lowes rae in he sae, jus 5.3 percen.

Obamas approval raing averaged a relaively srong 50 percen in he rs hal o2011 according o Gallup. Te sunning all in populariy o Republican Gov. Scot

Walker, who was eleced in he GOP wave o 2010, is likely o also help Obama.

Walkers draconian budge and hard-line, union-busing acics have proven

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unpopular wih Wisconsin voers and his approval raing is down o 42 percen,

wih 54 percen disapproval.42 Tese developmens are likely o help Obama boh

by making him appear moderae by conras and by ring up he Democraic

base in he sae. Bu he poor economy will ineviably dog Obama in much o

Wisconsin, ensuring ha Republicans can pu up a srong gh or he sae.

Iowa6 electoral votes

Obama won Iowa by a 10-poin margin in 2008 and Democras have won he

sae in ve o he las six presidenial elecions. Te wo presidenial elecions

immediaely preceding 2008, however, eaured a GOP win (by 0.7 poins in

2004) and a very narrow loss (by 0.3 poins in 2000) so he sae should be

considered very much in play.

Communiies o color made up 9 percen o Iowas voe in 2008 and voed 73 per-cen or Obama. Based on exi poll and Census daa,43 minoriies should accoun

or a leas 10 percen o he 2012 Iowa elecorae.

We should hereore expec a 1-poin drop in he whie share o voers, who

avored Obama by 51-47. Among whies, voing paterns among whie working-

class and whie college-graduae voers diered only modesly and no in he way

ypical o mos saes. Iowas whie working-class voers suppored Obama by

5246 while he saes whie college graduaes gave him a very narrow 1-poin

margin (50-49). By hese daa, he GOP should acually be slighly helped

by ongoing shis in he declining whie voer pool ha are likely o produce

a 4-poin decrease in whie working-class voers and a 2-poin increase in

whie college graduaes in 2012.44

Likely shis in he composiion o he voer pool do no clearly avor eiher

pary in 2012. Ta pus exra emphasis on Obamas criical ask: avoiding large

losses in voer suppor among key groups. Obamas minoriy suppor needs o

remain a leas a is 73 percen level rom 2008. And mainaining his even spli

among whie college graduaes, as Democras have in he las wo elecions, will be

crucial. Bu his mos dicul challengeand he GOPs grea opporuniyis hepossibiliy o a sharp drop in Obamas whie working suppor, which was crucial o

his 2008 vicory. I Obamas whie working-class suppor is ar souh o he break-

even poin and Obama is no aided by unusually high minoriy urnou, hen he

GOP has a good chance o aking he sae.

The GOP shouldactually be sligh

helped by ongo

shits in the

declining white

voter pool in IA

that are likely to

produce

a 4-point decrea

in white workin

class voters and

2-point increase

in white college

graduates in 20

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urning o geographic voing paterns, Iowa is a slow-growh sae (4.1 percen

growh compared o he naional average o 9.7 percen). By ar he ases grow-

ing mero area is Des Moines, up 18 percen in he las decade. Te minoriy pop-

ulaion is up 68 percen and accouns or 47 percen o he areas growh. I is also

Iowas larges mero area, conribuing 19 percen o he saewide voe. Obama

carried Des Moines by 10 poins in 2008, 9 poins beter han Kerry in 2004.

Te second-larges mero area is Cedar Rapids, also growing airly as. Te popu-

laion is up 9 percen since 2000, and he minoriy populaion has grown by 68

percen. Te area accouns or 9 percen o he saewide voe. Obama carried he

Cedar Rapids area by 23 poins in 2008, ve poins beter han Kerry in 2004.

Aer ha, here are a series o smaller mero areas ha each accoun or 3 o 6

percen o he saewide voe. From larges o smalles, hese are: Davenpor,

Waerloo, Iowa Ciy, Council Blus, Sioux Ciy, Dubuque, and Ames.ogeher hey conribue jus over one-hird (34 percen) o Iowas voe. Mos

o hese mero areas are in he eas or cenral pars o he sae and gave Obama

srong margins ranging rom 15 poins in Davenpor o 36 poins in as-growing

Iowa Ciy, which has grown by 16 percen since 2000. Te wo mero areas a he

wesern end o he sae, Sioux Ciy and Council Blus, boh avored McCain by

sligh margins (1 poin and 4 poins respecively).

Iowa

Counties

Metropolitan Areas

Iowa City

Cedar Rapids

Waterloo-Cedar Falls

Davenport-Moline-

Rock IslandOmaha-Council

Bluffs

Des Moines

Ames

DubuqueSioux City


Change, 2008-12

Minorities 73 25 1



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So Iowas voe lacks he clear geographic ulcrums ha characerize he oher

compeiive Midwesern and Rus Bel saes. Ta said, he nine mero areas

menioned above accoun or 62 percen o he saewide voe, so he cones in

2012 will likely be concenraed in hese areas. I he GOP can signicanly roll

back Democraic gains in hese areas, paricularly in cenral and easern Iowa,

Republicans will have a serious chance o aking he sae in 2012.

Iowas relaively good economy will be helpul o Obamas chances o winning

he sae in 2012. Te saewide unemploymen rae is only 6 percen and ranges

rom a high o 6.1 percen in Cedar Rapids o a low o jus 5 percen in Iowa Ciy.

In addiion, Obamas approval raing averaged a airly decen 49 percen in 2011,

according o Gallup. Te unpopulariy o newly eleced Republican governor

erry Bransad, whose approval raing has been languishing a around 41 percen

wih 45 percen disapproval, may also help Obama.45 ogeher hese rends will

give him a prety good chance o replicaing his 2008 success, hough, as oulined

above, he GOP also has plausible pahs o vicory.

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These six swing states are all marked by slow growth and by a

relatively small and slow growing percentage o voters rom com-

munities o color. These states are projected to average around 15

percent minority voters in 2012, ranging rom a low o 10 percent

in Iowa to a high o 21 percent in Pennsylvania. But this relatively

small base o minority voters is supplemented or Democrats by

airly strong support among these states growing white college-

graduate populations, who gave Obama an average 5-point

advantage in 2008. This coalition o the ascendant has produced

increased Democratic support in growing areas o these states.

Moreover, the weight o that coalition should be larger in these

states in 2012 than in 2008, with an average 3-point increase in

the percent o white college graduates and minorities among

voters and a 3-point decline in the percent o white working-

class voters. In addition, Obama should benet rom the act that

Midwestern and Rust Belt white working-class voters tend to be

more supportive than in other competitive states, averaging onlya 2-point Democratic decit in 2008.

The poor economic situation will, however, heavily tax that rela-

tive riendliness and it is likely to reduce enthusiasm or Obama

among his coalition o the ascendant. That will give Republicans

an opening in these states, especially in Ohio. McCain lost the

state by only 5 points in 2008, the white working class was

notably sympathetic to the GOP even then (McCain carried them

by 10 points), and except or Michigan, the economic situation

is worse than in the rest o these states. A strong GOP mobiliza-

tion eort could take the state, especially i there is no signi

economic improvement between now and the election.

GOP chances in the other ive states are not as good, though

Pennsylvania with the most riendly white working class, an

Michigan with the worst economy, provide serious opportu

ties. For Obamas part, his ability to keep his coalition o the

ascendant together and avoid catastrophic losses among th

white working class in all ive states will be heavily depende

on whether and how much the economy improves as we ne

the election.

I Obama does manage to lose only Ohio among the Midwe

ern/Rustbelt states, that would add 62 EVs to his core suppo

186 or a total o 248 EVs, leaving him only 22 short o victo

Most o this could be provided by the three southwestern st

he carried in 2008.

Carrying Ohio is certainly central to GOP prospects in 2012,

because it is their best chance o stopping a Democratic sw

o the swing Midwestern/Rust Belt states. And i the GOP ca

Ohio and Pennsylvania in addition to their core support, tha

would leave them only 41 EVs short o victory. Those 41 EVs

could be provided by Florida and any other New South state

by Florida, Colorado, and any other southwestern state.

The swing southwestern states thus loom large in both part

calculations. We now turn to an analysis o these states.

Midwest/Rust Belt summary

The Southwest

Te Souhwes includes hree saes ha are likely o be seriously in play beween Obama and

he GOP nominee:

Colorado (9 EVs)

Nevada (6 EVs)New Mexico (5 EVs)

Te Obama campaign does no appear likely o seriously cones Monana (3 EVs), even

hough Obama los i by only 2 poins in 2008. Nor is Arizona (11 EVs) likely o be a rue

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cones hough he rapid rae o demographic change in he sae will likely pu

i in play in he near uure, perhaps by 2016. ogeher, hese hree souhwes-

ern arge saes have 20 EVs and could, or example, more han make up or an

Obama loss o Ohio and is 18 EVs. Added o Obamas core saes and he oher

ve compeiive Midwesern/Rus Bel saes carried by Obama las ime, hese

saes would leave Obama only wo EVs shor o vicory.

Te GOP sraegy will ocus on adding several souhwesern saes o he saes

heyre able o pick o in he Midwes/Rus Bel, hus seting hemselves up o

claim vicory by success in he New Souh. For example, i he GOP carries Ohio

and any souhwesern sae, hey can win he presidency by carrying he hree

swing New Souh saes (Florida, Norh Carolina, and Virginia). Or i he GOP

carries Ohio and Pennsylvania and hen Colorado and Nevada, jus aking Florida

would be enough o give hem vicory.

Tese hree souhwesern saes are all as-growing relaive o he naionalaverage hough New Mexicos 13.2 percen growh rae and Colorados 16.9

percen growh rae are dwared by ha o Nevada a 35.1 percen, easily making i

he ases-growing sae in he counry.46 Nevadas growh in minoriy populaion

sharean 11.1 percenage poin shi over he las decadewas also ar greaer han

ha o Colorado a 4.5 poins or New Mexico, 4.2 poins. Nevadas overall minoriy

populaion share o 45.9 percen, however, sill lags ar behind ha o New Mexico a

59.5 percen, hough i is considerably higher han Colorados a 30 percen.

Despie hese dierences, hese souhwesern saes overall presen a demographic

prole and growh dynamic more avorable or Obama han in he Midwes and

Rus Bel swing region, where he heavily whie populaions and slow pace o demo-

graphic change are relaively advanageous or he GOP. We now provide a deailed

discussion o hese saes in des

Documents

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