THE DYNAMICS OF PASTORAL CONFLICTS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL PEACE AND SECURITY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA

Prepared by:

Frank Emmanuel MuherezaCentre for Basic Research,

P.O. Box 9863,Kampala

fmuhereza@hotmail.com

December 2012

Paper to CEWARN for the compendium on “Pastoral conflicts and their place in wider conflict systems in the region”.

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Introduction:

This paper explores the significance of emerging trajectories of pastoral conflicts in the

wider conflict systems in the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD)

region, where pastoral communities that share close ethno-linguistic and kinship ties have

become predisposed to not only armed conflicts over sharing scarce and constantly

dwindling resources but also virulent livestock raiding. In order to do so, the paper

highlight the ways in which the manifestation of pastoral conflicts has changed, and the

significance of the emergent pastoral conflicts to regional peace and security in the Horn

of Africa (HoA) countries of Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia and South Sudan.

The Changing Manifestation of Pastoral Conflicts:

The arid and semi-arid zones in the HoA countries comprise between 30 to 70 percent of

their total land areas, implying that due to extremely harsh ecological conditions

characterized by high temperatures, low and highly erratic rainfall, and poor soils and

scanty vegetation, pastoralists who occupy these zones and derive their livelihoods

predominantly from reliance on livestock, practice diverse systems of seasonal migration

to track seasonally available pastoral resources, including water and pastures, which are

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available in disparate ecological niches sometimes spreading across internal and

international borders. These predispose the pastoralists to conflicts over these resources.

The nature of these pastoral conflicts has been significantly influenced by not only

regime changes in these countries, including Ethiopia (in 1971 and 1991), Somalia (in

1991) and Uganda (in 1979, 1985, and 1986), but also subsequent intensification of

internal civil strife in Sudan and Uganda, as well as inter-state wars involving Ethiopia,

Eritrea and Somali, on one hand, and proxy wars between Uganda and Sudan on the

other. These armed conflicts led to a proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons

(SALWs) within pastoral communities, resulting in a conflagration of violence entailed in

the sharing of scarce pastoral resources, spreading beyond borders, into countries such as

Kenya that did not experience internal civil strife. New dimensions of conflicts had

emerged within pastoral communities whose livelihoods had since time immemorial been

characterised by struggles over ownership, control and access to often scarce pastoral

resources.

In all the pastoral communities in the HoA, control over resources critical for their

immediate survival was traditionally exercised through gerontocratic systems of

governance which exclusively vested authority and power in the institutions of elders.

With the proliferation of illicit firearms, armed conflicts not only escalated, but also

became more, brutal and indiscriminate, as the majority of the youth also acquired

automatic rifles outside the control of the elders. Livestock raiding became

predominantly commercialized for the private benefit of those who controlled the warrior

machinery, and became a means for primitive accumulation. The resulting violence

distorted mechanisms for coping with adversity within pastoralist livelihood systems,

which led to increasing levels of poverty, as livestock became increasingly concentrated

in a few hands, and traditional justice increasingly favoured the more powerful, who

owned livestock. Banditry and high way robberies intensified as conflicts were extended

to non-pastoral neighbours. Internal disputes were no longer resolved amicably, but

through violence and reprisal attacks, leading to cyclical violence.

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Unlike in the past, pastoral conflicts between groups of close consanguinal relations,

especially internal to ethnic groups, clans and communities had become common. There

was also an increase in trans-boundary conflicts between pastoral groups in contiguous

border areas. Pastoral conflicts had not only escalated, but also become more widespread

and ferocious. Instances of direct military engagement with the army and other state

agencies responsible for maintenance of law and order had become a common occurrence

as the armed pastoral groups boldly challenged the authority of the state, even where

pastoralists are not motivated by a desire for regime change.

The significance of pastoral conflicts to regional peace and security in the Horn of

Africa region

There is a sense in which the wider conflict systems in the HoA involving regime

changes, internal civil strife and inter-state wars, on one hand, and armed conflicts in

pastoral areas, on the other hand, had mutually impacted on each other in significant

ways. The wider conflicts influenced pastoral conflicts not only in terms of their

underlying causes, but also the conflict triggers, and factors that explain their

continuation. Under the different contexts in which pastoral conflicts occur, these various

factors have a tendency of being not only complex, dynamic and interconnected, but also

mutually reinforcing.

These pastoral areas are usually far removed from the centres of power, remote and

economically and politically marginalised, leading to poor availability of the requisite

social services in these areas. Pastoral areas receive the least allocation of state resources

form all national government in the region. National economic policies do not always

respond to politics but misguided planning/economic policies. These areas are

consequently characterized not only by high levels of poverty, but also lack the necessary

infrastructure, both social (such as schools, health centres, markets, water for humans and

livestock) and physical (such as roads and telecommunication services) to stimulate the

growth of economic opportunities for the population to take advantage of. For being

outlying areas of the respective countries that are poorly served by state institutions

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responsible for security and enforcement of law and order, these pastoral areas are also

characterized by insecurity and instability. With long international borders that are

porous, and lacking designated border crossing, and if present, poorly provisioned, illegal

firearms from neighbouring conflict zones (such as Somalia and South Sudan) are

trafficked into pastoralists’ possession in Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda across common

borders.

Pastoral conflicts had become more destructive and virulent. These conflicts are also a

reflection of how countries handle and resolve national and regional political differences.

There have been widespread conflicts in border communities. In Kenya, an attempt to

create Greater Somalia that resulted into Somalis in Kenya aligning themselves with

Somalia before the fall of Siad Barre led to further marginalisation of Kenyan Somalis as

a punishment for the attempted secession. In the recent past, Kenya has also witnessed

outbreaks of armed conflicts between communities that have had longstanding underlying

tensions over borders after the government commenced the implementation of the new

Constitution of Kenya, which among others, entailed the delineation of boundaries of

constituency necessary for the implementation of political devolution of central state

powers (political, administrative and fiscal powers) to newly created administrative units

at county level. The way the county boundaries were being delineated ignited bitter

disputes over border demarcations, which had exacerbated long-standing tribal animosity

over resource sharing in certain areas. Kenya has been grappling with ambiguous

borderlands between rival ethnic groups, and disputes over pastures and farmlands in

many areas that have pitted pastoral groups against other pastoral groups as well as

settled cultivators. In August 2012, Mandera, Wajir and Tana River counties experienced

violent conflicts. Violent clashes have been reported between Degodia and Garri clans in

Mandera and Wajir districts and Orma and Pokomo in Tana River County. Similar

conflicts over border realignments were reported in Marsabit County between the Garri

clan, Degodia clan and Borana ethnic groups.i

i. See UNOCHA, ‘Humanitarian Bulletin, Eastern Africa, Issue 13, 17-31 August 2012’. http://issuu.com/unochakenya/docs/eastern_africa_humanitarian_bulletin__13_ocha_ea

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The absence of adequate political will at all levels within a country, and between

countries in the HoA to resolve political and resource differences had led to a

conflagration of armed conflicts in many pastoral areas. Pastoral conflicts are partly a

manifestation of symptoms of political difficulties encountered in the respective countries

to address the development challenges encountered by pastoralists in support of their

respective forms of livelihoods, without necessarily seeking to change them. All the

pastoral areas in the HoA are by definition pastoral resource-constrained, and have over

the past decades come under significant ecological stress associated with climate change

and diminishing resources. Their harsh ecological conditions characterised by climatic

variability results in scarcities in availability of critical resources required for the survival

of livestock such as water and pastures. Dry weather had become more intense and

prolonged, while rainy seasons had become more erratic with more average heavy rains

coming out of season. This had not only diminished availability of pastoral resources, but

had also increased competition for the available scarce pastoral resources. Prolonged

extreme weather conditions, whether dry or wet, undermine the capacity of pastoral

systems to cope with stress which usually characterizes these regions. The technocratic

approach in response to such conditions has been to seek a transformation of pastoralism

through either commercialisation or sedentarization. Some pastoralists have been forced

to abandon livestock rearing and adopt alternative forms of livelihoods. Populations of

settled crop farmers and sendentarized former pastoralists had also increased in the areas

previously roamed by the pastoralists. As pastoral resources in the harsh ecological

environments inhabited by pastoralists increasingly dwindle because of bad/over use and

conversion to other non-livestock-based uses, tensions emerge not only within and

between pastoralists, but also between pastoralists and agro-pastoral and settled crop

farming neighbours.

Over the years, competition for scarce resources has increasingly become characterised

by armed violence. Traditional mechanisms which in the past were useful for negotiating

flexible and reciprocal resource sharing arrangements had become increasingly

inefficient, leading to never-ending conflicts whenever there are periods of stress. These

changes resulted in not only increased competition for the available resources, but also

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escalated conflicts over access to and control of these resources, leading to brutal,

indiscriminate and highly destructive forms of violence. In Kenya, for example,

communal grazing lands in Marsabit district are under pressure from encroachment by

farming communities. Competition between different pastoralists groups for not only

access to pastures and water, but also ownership of land, for example, the Pokot versus

Turkana in Kenya. There have been long standing conflicts between rival clans on the

Garre and Murulle over rich grazing lands in Mandera district that often flare into violent

conflicts. The Borana and Ajuran fight over grazing lands along Moyale and Wajir

district borders. Marsabit and Samburu district are flash points over dry season grazing

resources between Turkana and Samburu on one hand and Pokot and Rendile on the other

hand. In Samburu and Laikipia districts, tensions over access to resources are always

present between Pokot, Samburu and Borana.ii

When countries are involved in dealing with more pressing armed conflicts elsewhere

whose primary objective is regime change, less attention is usually placed on immanent

tensions always prevalent in pastoral areas over sharing scarce resources. Sometimes

disputes left unattended to or unresolved lead to flaring up of conflicts as has often been

experienced the Ilemi triangle, a tri-junctional point that demarcates boundaries between

Kenya, Sudan and Ethiopia.iii Similar outbreaks of armed conflicts are often witnessed

along the Uganda-South Sudan and Kenya-South Sudan border area corridor from

Kidepo valley to the Nadapal, Lokichoggio, Kakuma and Oropoi corridor, which is

shared by the Dodoth of Uganda, Toposa of South Sudan and Turkana of Kenya. When

sharing mechanisms fail and access becomes constrained, armed conflicts break out

between the various pastoral groups.

Practically, a single incident of violence in a pastoral area will have mutually reinforcing

and multiple underlying causes operating at various levels, and a horde of several

ii. See Broeck, Jan, Van den. (2010). ‘Conflict motives in Kenya’s North Rift Region’, Interns & Volunteers Series. Nairobi: International Peace Information Service (IPIS). Available at: http://www.ipisresearch.be/publications_detail.php?id=343&lang=en iii. See Mburu N. (2003) 'Delimitation of the Elastic Ilemi Triangle: Pastoral Conflicts and Official Indifference in the Horn of Africa', African Studies Quarterly 7(1): 15-37, http://www.africa.ufl.edu/asq/v7/v7i1a2.htm.

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overlapping conflicts triggers. That is why any conflict outbreak will almost certainly

beget more conflicts, which sometimes spill over to neighbouring communities, in-

country and cross-border, if it remains unresolved. In Uganda, agro-pastoral communities

in all districts neighbouring Karamoja in the sub-regions of Sebei, Bugishu, Teso, Lango

and Acholi have all been affected by Karamojong livestock raiding. The August 2012

clashes between the Degodia and Garri clans in Kenya’s Mandera County may have been

triggered off by disagreements over altered political boundaries, but in many ways were

also linked to new county governance structures that had been established in

neighbouring Ethiopia.iv Conflicts in one pastoral area or with one pastoral group draw in

other pastoral groups from other areas with whom those in conflict have alliances.

Most pastoral communities occupy contiguous border areas where they share close

kinship relations with citizens of neighbouring countries or have established alliances.

These relations are important for accessing pastoral resources both within and across

national borders, which in harsh ecological conditions, are scarce. During the dry season,

Kenyan Pokot move their livestock to Amudat district in Uganda, where they share

resources with the Ugandan Pokot. The ŋikamatak section of the Turkana from Loima

district, Kenya, have since the Lokiriama peace accord of 1973, been moving their herds

into Moroto district, where they share resources with the Matheniko section of

Karamojong. The ŋiwaikwara section of the Turkana from Turkana West District had

also renewed their alliance with the Jie of Kotido District. These trans-boundary resource

sharing networks have not only been a haven of trafficking in illicit firearms across the

borders; they have also been used for raiding activities.v When Pokot raid in Karamoja,

they hide the raided animals in Kacheliba and Kapenguria in Kenya. The Matheniko raid

livestock from fellow Karamojong and hide them among the ŋikamatak Turkana. The

Dodoth of Kaabong hide stolen animals from Karamoja among the Didiŋa of South

Sudan. They are also using for offensive raiding. Causes, triggers and drivers of pastoral

conflicts in a particular pastoral community have consequences not only in-country, but

iv. See UNOCHA, ‘Humanitarian Bulletin, Eastern Africa, Issue 13, 17-31 August 2012’. Op.cit.v. See Kingma, Kees, Frank Muhereza, Ryan Murray, Matthias Nowak, and Lilu Thapa. (2012) Security Provision and Small Arms in Karamoja: A survey of perceptions, A Special Report . Geneva: Small Arms Survey (SAS) and Danish Demining Group (DDG) (Available at: http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/publications/by-type/special-reports.html)

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also affects neighbouring countries because of the regional interconnected of not only

pastoral groups, but also their survival which drives several factors that cause conflicts

and also impact on the continuation of the conflicts in the entire IGAD region.

The nature and dynamics of the regional interconnectedness of pastoral armed conflicts in

the HoA have not only continued changing over time, they have remained as diverse as

the causes and drivers of these conflicts. The inability by Kenya to undertake a

simultaneous and systematic disarmament of the Turkana and Pokot, and South Sudan of

the Toposa and Didinŋa had to an extent undermined total disarmament in Karamoja. It

has been reported by a recent study published by the Small Arms Survey that criminal

elements among the Matheniko Karamojong ‘borrow’ firearms from the ŋikamatak

Turkana for use in criminal activities in Karamoja.vi

While pastoral conflicts tend to be localized over very specific resources, if they continue

unaddressed, these conflicts have a tendency not only to destabilize neighbouring non-

pastoral regions, but also sometimes feed into internal civil conflicts and inter-state

conflicts in the respective countries. It is often also the consequence of political

marginalization that violence in pastoral communities easily spreads to neighbouring

agro-pastoral and settled crop farming communities. In Kenya, invasions of private farm

belonging to Luhyia community in the Trans-Nzoia district by neighbouring pastoral

Pokot are sometimes accentuated by unscrupulous political elites. The Pokot also conflict

with the more agro-pastoral Marakwet. In Kenya, communities neighbouring violence

afflicted pastoral groups had organized themselves in self-defence militias to defend

themselves from armed pastoral groups, which has not only led to proliferation of illegal

firearms but also the conflagration of violent conflicts between different ethnic

communities, for example in Marakwet, Trans-Nzoia and Uasin Gishu.vii

Pastoral conflicts that take place in the respective countries of the HoA are critical for

regional peace and security because of the interconnectedness in not only the causes and

drivers of these conflicts, in the sense that one leads to and/or affects the other; but also in

vi. See Kingma et.al (2012), op.cit.vii. See Broeck (2010), op.cit.

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their outcomes and impacts, with regards populations displacement, loss of livelihood

security, humanitarian crises at national and regional levels.

Pastoral areas in the HoA present an important natural resource paradox - of having both

abundance and scarcities of different natural resource within the same context.

Notwithstanding the acute shortage of pastoral resources, which is also relative

considering the rich ecological niches found everywhere, these pastoral areas are also

repositories huge commercially exploitable deposits of hydrocarbons and minerals. There

is currently an upsurge of foreign direct investments in all pastoral areas in the HoA, as

national and trans-national capital seeks to take advantage of the rich natural resource

base in these areas. Intensification of exploitation of high potential natural resources in

these areas, both above-ground (land and biodiversity) and below ground (minerals and

Gas and Oil), have led to upsurge of land grabbing which has led to conflicts as the

indigene pastoral communities are dispossessed and displaced from their lands. Oil and

Gas deposit prospecting and production in Turkana County, is underway, with

commercially viable discoveries already announced from Oil wells at Nakukulas, in

Kochoden sub-location, Turkana East. In Karamoja, large scale commercial extraction of

mainly limestone and marble, but also gold has been taking place.

To avoid the risk of conflicts over the recently discovered high value commercial

resources, these outlying resource-rich pastoral areas need to be targeted as first

beneficiaries from revenues generated from new-found wealth from natural resources to

avoid their resources becoming a ‘curse’viii for pastoral areas. In Karamoja, symptoms of

a ‘resource curse’ may already be apparent where despite years of providing limestone

and marble for making cement, road haulage not only destroy the difficult-to-maintain

road infrastructure in the region, but also the area get cut off from the rest of the country

every rainy season. A significant part of the revenue generated from minerals should be

invested in improvement of the physical infrastructure in these regions by the respective

states. But even without minerals, investment in physical infrastructures in conflict

viii. The ‘resource curse’ hypothesis claims that abundance in natural resources, particularly oil, encourages especially civil war. Natural resources provide both motive and opportunity for conflict and create indirect institutional and economic causes of instability.

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afflicted pastoral areas is key to addressing insecurity in these areas. Continued insecurity

in pastoral areas affects ability by a country achieving Millennium Goals Development

(MGD) targets.

Pastoral areas in HoA have also been economically marginalised despite the economic

contribution of pastoralism to the respective national economies. Pastoral conflicts in

many areas have been attributed to government attempts integrate pastoral areas into

mainstream development due largely to inappropriate or absent policy and legal

frameworks for enabling pastoralists secure their livelihoods. Most governments in the

HoA have for instance maintained a stance that views pastoralism as backward, and

therefore a target for transformation. Policy and legal framework are designed to make it

possible to modernize pastoralism through commercialisation so as to support the fiscal

objective of the state through promotion of investments that enhance export. These

policies give priority to non-livestock based interventions. National policies which have

not enabled pastoralists to productively utilize their resources or undermined their ability

to cope with adverse effects of climate change. The armed conflicts in pastoral areas are

largely a manifestation of governance failures characterised by non-responsive and

unaccountable institutions of the central and local governments; misplaced priorities;

absence of adequate political will to raise the issues of pastoralists in national and

international policy, which leads to enhanced vulnerability of pastoralists to both natural

and man-made disasters, which are associated with conflicts. There are limited

opportunities for employment in pastoral areas due to limited investments by

governments in these areas. Even where investments have been undertaken, they have not

benefited the pastoralists.

What does the future hold for Pastoral areas?

Due to the high level of inter-dependence and interconnectedness between pastoralists

within the respective countries and also within neighbouring countries in the HoA,

conflicts in one pastoral area affect both directly and indirectly, not only the rest of the

country, but also the surrounding contiguous regions from neighbouring countries. This

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means that while countries affected by pastoral conflicts need to put emphasis on

ensuring that they have their houses in order by controlling SALWs through

disarmament; putting in place development frameworks that target improved livelihoods

and overall poverty reduction. A systematic regional approach to addressing pastoral

conflicts is extremely necessary, since addressing an armed pastoral conflict in one

country also reduces the possibility of violence breaking out or flaring up in neighbouring

countries.

Interventions for addressing armed violence in pastoral communities need to be

accompanied by wider programmes for addressing broader human security concerns that

target not only restoring security but also addressing critical development concerns in the

conflict afflicted communities. Programmes for reducing armed violence and arms

availability in pastoral areas had remained ineffective because they are not integrated

with broader security and development initiatives.

Pastoral areas afflicted by armed conflicts are also hard-to-reach, hard-to-stay and hard-

to-work areas. The presence of central state institutions is weak, where it is present.

Public servants from the central abhor postings to such areas, many times they abscond

from duty, or defer transfers and many would rather resign from services once posted to

these areas. Without optimal state institutions for enforcement of law and order, it is

difficult to rid these volatile areas of insecurity. In Karamoja, while raiding had declined

due to relative improvement in security associated with a successful disarmament,

isolated cattle thefts and opportunistic road ambushes by criminal had continued. As long

as those who commit crimes, including raiding, thefts, and possession of illegal firearms,

are not apprehended, taken to courts of law, prosecuted, sentenced and committed to

prison to serve their sentences and reform, it will be difficult for the communities to

volunteer information useful for sustainable peace. With continued minimalist presence

of the state, and limited investment of public resources in enhancing enforcement of law

and order and improving the administration of justice, impunity by criminals looms large

throughout these pastoral areas.

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The need for infrastructural development cannot be overemphasized. Throughout the

Horn of Africa, pastoral areas afflicted by armed conflicts have the poorest road networks

in the respective countries. Every rainy season, Karamoja gets cut off from the rest of the

country due to floods that wash away the roads. The 73 kms stretch from Moroto to

Soroti sometimes takes days to reach. For a long time, to access Lokales from Amudat,

one had to detour through Kacheliba and Kanyerus in Kenya. The 152 kms from Lodwar

to Alale through Lorugum-Lorengippi-Loya and Nauyapong-Kacheliba takes not less

than six hours. The existing roads are poorly maintained, and become impassable during

the rainy seasons. Telecommunication network coverage had not yet been extended to

many areas in the project in Turkana and Pokot, and a few areas in Karamoja, since

telecommunication companies do not consider returns to their investments in such areas

are being positive. In Kenya, in both greater Pokot and the greater Turkana county are

also some places most poorly served by telecommunication services, and without mobile

telephone services, communication relies on high frequency radio communications.

Key considerations for political governance and conflict prevention:

The need for conflict sensitivity is underscored in undertaking not only economic

development but also improved political governance and preventing conflicts and

maintaining regional peace and security. Conflict-sensitivity in addressing pastoral

conflicts requires security related interventions to put into consideration the need for

promoting sustainable livelihoods through supporting interventions for enhancing not

only food self-sufficiency and support to income generation activities, but also diversified

sources of incomes for pastoral households.

Resolving pastoral conflicts is critical for inter-state relations. In order for poverty to be

alleviated sustainably, it is essential that stability and peace is maintained at all levels all

the time. In order to achieve sustainable development government and development

partners ought to be sensitive to the tensions that divide pastoral communities, as well as

states in the HoA. Conflict-sensitive approaches need to be mainstreamed in all

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development interventions, especially in areas that have been afflicted with armed

conflicts in the past.

In contiguous border areas where insecurity is associated with presence of armed pastoral

groups, it is essential for the respective countries in the HoA to always plan to undertake

not only simultaneous security operations for disarming armed warriors in their

respective countries at the same time, but also to conduct joint cross-border security and

disarmament operations.

The pastoral communities who are the most adversely affected by insecurity should also

be involved in initiatives for security provision, be it disarmament or maintenance of law

and order. Provision of adequate security for communities before and after disarmament

to prevent them from becoming vulnerable to attacks from neighbours who may have not

disarmed, or had re-armed. The respective countries also need to invest in mechanisms

for conflict early warning and response to ensure timely and effective action in response

to actual or planned conflicts, which helps to prevent conflicts from occurring and

mitigate the effects of those that have already occurred.

Conclusion:

It is evident from the above discussions that pastoral conflicts are not only dynamic and

complex, but also extremely interconnected with the wider conflicts in the HoA, which

makes the need to address these conflicts significant for regional peace and security in the

IGAD region. The causes, triggers and drivers of these conflicts are not only diverse but

also mutually reinforcing with the wider conflicts in the IGAD region. Impacts of the

pastoral conflicts are so interdependent that a failure in addressing any of the conflicts

undermines the success in addressing conflict causes, triggers and drivers in all the

others. Pastoral conflicts are so interlinked that wherever violence breaks out in one area,

it affects all other pastoral areas in the HoA, both directly and indirectly. It means that a

pastoral conflict left unresolved in one country affects other countries in the HoA.

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Whether or not pastoral conflicts become recurrent depends on types of interests driving

the pastoral conflicts, and the contexts in which the conflicts take place; and the actors

involved at the various levels. It is important to understand the logic underlying the

forces driving pastoral conflicts, where these forces are coming from; and internal and

external factors that explain the continuation of the conflicts.

Many factors explain the escalation and ferocity of pastoral violence. Pastoral conflicts in

the HoA are caused by a multiplicity of factors, operating at different levels that reinforce

each other in a very complex manner, due to the spectre of their interconnectedness.

These internecine conflicts had become not only extremely lethal and highly destructive,

but also occur within specific pastoral communities, with actors across national borders

fanning the conflicts, both directly and indirectly. Pastoral conflicts are informed largely

by the interests and motives of diverse and overlapping interest beyond the immediate

survival of the conflict afflicted communities driving the continuation of the conflicts, for

example, the commercialization of livestock raiding activities. For IGAD and CEWARN,

this means that more efforts need to put in helping policy makers and implementers to

understand how conflict analysis is central to prevention through early warning which

needs to be extended through the entire eastern Africa region in order to cover all forms

of conflicts engendered.

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