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“Cowardice rightly understood begins with selfishness and ends with shame.” – Josh Radnor
EdisiXLIII/XII/2018
Rilis Mingguan (3 – 7 Desember 2018)
12/03 JapanNikkei Japan PMI Mfg
(Nov F)52.2 51.8
Vehicle Sales YoY (Nov) 8.3% 13.0%
12/03South
Korea
Nikkei South Korea PMI
Mfg (Nov)48.6 51.0
12/04 GDP YoY (3Q F) 2.0% 2.0%
CPI YoY (Nov) 2.0% 2.0%
12/04 SingaporePurchasing Managers
Index (Nov)51.5 51.9
Ket: Final
3-Dec-18 7-Dec-18 WTD YTD 3-Dec-18 7-Dec-18 WTD YTD
IDRUSD 14244 14480 -1.63% -6.39% BRENTUSD/BAREL 61.69 61.67 -0.03% 2.07%
YENUSD 113.66 112.69 0.86% 0.00% TEMBAGAUSD/LB 279.95 275.75 -1.50% 10.06%
EUROUSD 0.88 0.88 0.35% -5.09% BATU BARAUSD/MT 102.45 102.55 0.10% 1.74%
YUAN USD 6.88 6.87 0.13% -5.35% EMASUSD/OZ 1230.67 1249.31 1.51% -4.11%
POUNDUSD 0.79 0.79 0.05% -5.77% GAS ALAMUSD/MMBTu 4.34 4.49 3.43% -99.96%
3-Dec-18 7-Dec-18 WTD YTD 3-Dec-18 7-Dec-18 WTD YTD
INDONESIAIHSG 6118.3 6126.4 0.13% -3.61% CPOMYR/MT 1813 1793 -1.10% -26.64%
JEPANGNIKKEI 22574.8 21678.7 -3.97% -4.77% KAKAOUSD/MT 2144 2175 1.45% 14.96%
SINGAPURASTI 3190.6 3111.1 -2.49% -8.57% GULAUSD/LB 350.4 345.6 -1.37% -12.44%
ASDOW JONES 25826.4 24389.0 -5.57% -1.34% GANDUMUSD/BAREL 515.8 520 0.73% 21.66%
HONGKONGHSI 27182.0 26063.8 -4.11% -12.89% KEDELAIUSD/BUSHEL 905.75 917 1.21% -3.68%
3-Dec-18 7-Dec-18 WTD YTD
YIELD SBN10% 7.83 8.04 2.62% 27.16%
PUAB RATE% 7.20 7.23 0.35% 24.14%
OVERNIGHT% 5.93 5.90 -0.44% 51.35%
FA SAHAMJUTA USD -54.30 -37.06 31.75% -249.10%
FA SBNJUTA USD -45.44 -18.58 59.11% -149.51%
PASAR VALAS PASAR KOMODITAS MINERAL
PASAR SAHAM PASAR KOMODITAS PERTANIAN
PASAR UANG
-21.20
-15.88
-12.82
-8.57
-8.32
-6.47
-5.91
-3.61
1.55
China SHCOMP
Korea Stock KOSPI Index
Philippines PSEi Index
Singapore STI Index
Vietnam Hanoi Index
FTSE Malaysia KLCI Index
Thailand SET Index
Indonesia JCI
India NSE Nifty 50 Index
Aliran Dana Asing
YTD (Juta USD)Bond Saham
Periode
(Bond/Saham)
Indonesia 3,820.9 -3,354.5 Per 7 Desember 2018
Malaysia -4,187.1 -2,660 Per 30 Nov/7 Des 2018
Thailand 9,296.0 -8,718.3 Per 7 Desember 2018
Vietnam 1,857.2 Per 7 Desember 2018
Filipina 4,620.0 -1,050.9 Per 30 Sep / 7 Des 2018
China 72,157.2 7,860.7 Per 30 September 2018
India -7,046.9 -4,249.0 Per 7 Desember 2018
US 33,923 -83,525 Per 30 September 2018
PERINGKAT SAHAM ASIA (%) YTD – s.d 7 DESEMBER 2018
-10.22
-9.79
-6.39
-5.48
-5.35
-2.89
-0.77
0.00
Vietnam Dong
Indian Rupee
Indonesian Rupiah
Philippine Peso
Chinese Renminbi
Malaysian Ringgit
Thai Bath
Japanese Yen
PERINGKAT NILAI TUKAR ASIA (%) YTD – s.d 7 DESEMBER 2018
Ket: Aliran Dana Masuk/Aliran Dana Keluar
12/03 IndonesiaNikkei Indonesia PMI Mfg
(Nov)50.4 50.5
CPI YoY (Nov) 3.23% 3.16%
12/06Consumer Confidence Index
(Nov)122.7 119.2
12/03 USMarkit US Manufacturing PMI
(Nov F)55.3 55.4
12/06 Trade Balance (Oct) -$55.5b -$54.0b
12/03 China Caixin China PMI Mfg (Nov) 50.2 50.1
Menggali Produk Ekspor
Potensial IndonesiaOleh: Haqiqi Masnatin (Tenaga Analis, Asisten Deputi Moneter dan Neraca Pembayaran)
3.66
23.73
-45
-25
-5
15
35
55
01/2
009
08/2
009
03/2
010
10/2
010
05/2
011
12/2
011
07/2
012
02/2
013
09/2
013
04/2
014
11/2
014
06/2
015
01/2
016
08/2
016
03/2
017
10/2
017
05/2
018
Pertumbuhan Ekspor (%yoy) Pertumbuhan Impor (%yoy)
Sumber: CEIC, diolah
10 Besar Komoditas Ekspor Indonesia 2017 (share SDA = 36,4% terhadap total ekspor Indonesia) - berdasarkan HS 6
Sumber: Intracen, diolah
10 Besar Komoditas Ekspor Indonesia 2007 (share SDA = 40,5% terhadap total ekspor Indonesia) - berdasarkan HS 6
Pertumbuhan nilai ekspor Indonesia lebih lambatdaripada pertumbuhan nilai impor……
…. sementara ketergantungan ekspor terhadapproduk berbasis sumber daya alam masih tinggi
Padahal harga komoditas cenderung melambat
74.31106.98
65.17
Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
Brent Crude (USD/bbl.)
5.81 5.97
4.14
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
LNG (USD/MMbTU)
97.00
51.31
100.73
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Batu Bara (USD/MT)
830.88
539.78
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
3.04
1.23
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Karet (USD/Kg)
Minyak Sawit (USD/MT)
Komoditas
Indeks Harga (2010=100)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Energy 109.3 66.4 58.5 70.0 94.0 93.4
Non Energi 89.5 83.2 84.3 85.9 87.9 87.1
Logam Mulia 93.4 92.6 103.6 100.6 99.9 97.2
Indeks Harga Komoditas Global dan Proyeksi 2019
Sumber: World Bank
RSCA 2017 > 0• Kontribusi ekspor suatu produk terhadap ekspor
Indonesia relatif terhadap kontribusi ekspor suatu produk
terhadap nilai total ekspor dunia.
• Nilai 0 < RSCA < 1 artinya Indonesia terbukti lebih
terspesialisasi dalam mengekspor produk tersebut.
• Semakin terspesialisasi berarti industri Indonesia relatif
efisien dalam memproduksi dan mengekspor suatu
produk.
CAGR Global Demand (3Y) > 0• Seberapa cepat nilai impor dunia terhadap suatu produk
tumbuh dalam 3 tahun terakhir.
• Semakin cepat pertumbuhan impor dunia, semakin besar
potensi peningkatan nilai ekspor Indonesia di masa
depan.
CAGR Ekspor Indonesia (3Y) > 0• Seberapa cepat nilai ekspor Indonesia terhadap suatu
produk tumbuh dalam 3 tahun terakhir.
• Semakin cepat pertumbuhan ekspor Indonesia, semakin
besar potensi peningkatan nilai ekspor di masa depan.
Surplus & BCI < 1 (3Y)
Balassa-Corden Index (BCI) adalah indeks
yang digunakan untuk mengukur
perbandingan harga relatif domestik dan
internasional. Indikator ini menggambarkan
perbandingan harga domestik dan harga
impor. BCI < 1 artinya harga domestik lebih
murah/bisa bersaing daripada harga
internasional
Dari 5885 komoditas HS 6 digit, dipilih komoditas dengan
RSCA 2017 > 0; CAGR Global Demand 2015-2017 > 0; dan
CAGR Ekspor Indonesia 2015-2017 > 0
Dari 351 komoditas, dipilih komoditas yang
selalu surplus perdagangan selama 3 tahun
terakhir dan nilai BCI < 1
1
2
Oleh karena itu, sebaiknya Indonesia mencari produk ekspor potensial yang memiliki sustained comparative advantage (RSCA>0), pertumbuhan permintaan global yang tinggi (CAGR>0), pertumbuhan
ekspor yang tinggi (CAGR>0), dan harga yang berdaya saing secara internasional (BCI<1).
20 dari 106 Komoditas yang Potensial untuk Didorong Ekspornya - dgn Share Tertinggi
Code Product labelRSCA
Indonesia 2017CAGR Ekspor
Indonesia (3Y)CAGR Global Demand (3Y)
Share
'151190Palm oil and its fractions, whether or not refined (excluding chemically modified and crude)
0.97 7.90 5.46 8.18
'270119Coal, whether or not pulverised, non-agglomerated (excluding anthracite and bituminous coal)
0.98 11.81 13.01 6.21
'270112 Bituminous coal, whether or not pulverised, non-agglomerated 0.79 0.74 14.51 4.37
'260300 Copper ores and concentrates 0.72 1.63 8.51 2.04
'470329Semi-bleached or bleached non-coniferous chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate (excluding dissolving grades)
0.89 9.83 4.53 1.35
'151329Palm kernel and babassu oil and their fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified (excluding crude)
0.97 20.40 14.97 1.09
'382319Fatty acids, industrial, monocarboxylic; acid oils from refining (excluding stearic acid, oleic acid and tall oil fatty acids)
0.95 16.19 11.40 1.04
'720260 Ferro-nickel 0.94 59.15 7.16 0.79
'740311 Copper, refined, in the form of cathodes and sections of cathodes 0.36 24.98 2.74 0.64
'480256Uncoated paper and paperboard, of a kind used for writing, printing or other graphic purposes, and …..
0.89 0.50 0.72 0.62
'240220 Cigarettes, containing tobacco 0.55 4.25 5.56 0.49
'151790Edible mixtures or preparations of animal or vegetable fats or oils and edible fractions of different fats or oils (excluding fats, oils and their fractions, partly or …
0.90 13.81 4.30 0.49
'382370 Fatty alcohols, industrial 0.92 34.50 13.48 0.45
'480257Uncoated paper and paperboard, of a kind used for writing, printing or other graphic purposes, and non-perforated punchcards and punch-tape paper, in …
0.90 11.90 1.99 0.35
'480300Toilet or facial tissue stock, towel or napkin stock and similar paper for household or sanitary purposes, cellulose wadding and webs of cellulose fibres, whether …
0.87 6.40 2.39 0.31
'611020Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, waistcoats and similar articles, of cotton, knitted or crocheted (excluding wadded waistcoats)
0.43 12.63 0.07 0.29
'291590Saturated acyclic monocarboxylic acids, their anhydrides, halides, peroxides and peroxyacids; their halogenated, sulphonated, nitrated or nitrosated derivatives …
0.89 17.36 4.07 0.27
'210111 Extracts, essences and concentrates, of coffee 0.79 10.65 3.61 0.27
'151319Coconut oil and its fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified (excluding crude)
0.92 7.84 8.02 0.27
'400280Mixtures of natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha, guayule, chicle or similar types of natural rubber with synthetic rubber or factice, in primary forms or in plates …
0.81 155.37 82.52 0.26
Hasilnya terdapat 351 komoditas
Hasilnya terdapat 106 komoditas