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Vulnerability: Concepts and applications to coral reef-dependent regions

(Work in progress)

Allison Perry

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Vulnerability:

• susceptibility to harm

• a human condition or process resulting from physical, social, economic, or environmental factors, which determine the likelihood and scale of damage from the impact of a given hazard

(UNDP 2004)

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Approaches to vulnerability

• Risk and hazards• Coastal populations and flooding

• Human ecology• Hunger, famines

• Sustainability• Land use practices

• Climate change• Impacts on natural resource sectors

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Vulnerability assessment framework

EXPOSURE

Disturbance or stress to system

SENSITIVITY

Degree of response of system to

disturbance or stress

POTENTIAL IMPACTSAll impacts that may occur without

taking adaptation into account

VULNERABILITY

ADAPTIVE CAPACITYAbility of system to evolve or

change to accommodate disturbance or stress

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Vulnerability assessment framework

EXPOSURE

Disturbance or stress to system

VULNERABILITY

SENSITIVITY

Degree of response of system to

disturbance or stress

ADAPTIVE CAPACITYAbility of system to evolve or

change to accommodate disturbance or stress

RESILIENCE

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Economic vulnerability: climate change and fisheries

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POTENTIAL IMPACTSAll impacts that may occur without

taking adaptation into account

VULNERABILITY

ADAPTIVE CAPACITYResources and abilities to cope

with climate-related changes

EXPOSURENature and degree to which countries

are exposed to predicted climate

change

SENSITIVITYDegree to which

economies & people are likely to be

affected by fishery-related changes

Economic vulnerability: climate change and fisheries

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ModerateHighNo data

LowVery low

Allison et al. (2009)

Allison et al. (2009)

Vulnerability

Economic vulnerability: climate change and fisheries

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Taking vulnerability assessment forward

• Fisheries and climate change:• Refinements as input data quality improves • Multiple drivers of change

• Finer-scale assessments – for policy• National• Sub-national

• Vulnerability of specific fishery-dependent systems

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Threatened coral reefs

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Reef loss: threats to people• Reef ecosystem goods and services

• Food, income, employment, coastal protection, tourism, exports

• Poverty and reef-dependent regions• 2/3 of coral reef nations are developing countries• 1/4 of these are Least Developed Countries

• Small island states• High population densities, limited freshwater

supplies, sensitive economies

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Vulnerability and reef-dependence: Coral Triangle

• >120 million people dependent on marine resources for food, livelihoods• Reefs valued at US$ 2.3 billion• Many reefs degraded and under continuing threat• Coral Triangle Initiative (CTI): conservation, sustainable development,

poverty reduction

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Vulnerability and reef-dependence: Coral Triangle

• Vulnerability to reef loss (climate change)• National-scale assessments

• (Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste)

• Finer-scale assessments• (Indonesia, Philippines, Solomon Islands)

Indonesia

Philippines

Solomon Islands

Assessing vulnerability to reef loss

EXPOSURENature and degree to which coral reefs

are exposed to stress

SENSITIVITYDegree to which

people & economies are likely to be

affected by changes on reefs

POTENTIAL IMPACTSAll impacts that may occur without taking

adaptation into account

ADAPTIVE CAPACITYPotential for reef-dependent

communities & nations to cope with changes on reefs

VULNERABILITY

Assessing vulnerability to reef loss

EXPOSURENature and degree to which coral reefs

are exposed to stress

SENSITIVITY

Reef dependence

POTENTIAL IMPACTSAll impacts that may occur without taking

adaptation into account

ADAPTIVE CAPACITYResources and abilities to cope

with reef loss

VULNERABILITY

Assessing social vulnerability to reef loss

EXPOSURENature and degree to which coral reefs

are exposed to stress

SENSITIVITY

Reef dependence

ADAPTIVE CAPACITYResources and abilities to cope

with reef loss

SOCIAL VULNERABILITY

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Reef dependencePeople more reef-dependent where reefs represent greater:

1. Share of economic activity• Contribution to individual/household income• Contribution to community/regional/national economy

2. Source of employment• Number/proportion of people with reef-dependent livelihoods• Ranking of reef-related livelihood activities

3. Source of nutrients• Proportion of dietary protein from reef-associated sources• Quantity of reef-associated food consumed

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Complexities of reef dependence

• Variation in types of reef reliance• Continuous vs. seasonal• Safety net during times of hardship• Critical to survival vs. non-essential

• Other reef services• Coastal protection• Cultural value

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Adaptive capacityGeneric (Human development) indicators

• Economy (poverty, inequality, debts)• Health (life expectancy, child mortality)• Education (literacy, school enrolment)• Governance (e.g. stability, effectiveness, corruption)

Context-specific indicators• Governance (MPAs, LMMAs)• Alternative natural resources (other fisheries,

agriculture, freshwater availability)• Remittances• Infrastructure (e.g. roads)• Isolation (e.g. proximity to urban centres, markets)

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Project status

Data hunting and compilation

• National-scale• Reef-associated coastal populations, fisheries, dietary

consumption• HDIs, MPAs, roads, agricultural land availability, water

resources, remittances

• Finer-scale• Reef dependence:

– Indonesia (~ 25 sites)– Philippines (~ 30 sites)– Solomon Islands (~ 5 sites)

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Methodological challenges: Data limitations• Varying measures of reef-dependence

• Fishers: fishing households, boats, gear• Livelihoods: # households, total activities, activity rankings• Production: catch, revenues

• Trade-offs between spatial coverage and comparability (across sites, across countries)

• Spatial scale:

Local National

Reef-associated income

Reef-associated employment

Reef-associated livelihoods

Reef-derived catch

Dietary dependence

Health

Education

Governance

Remittances

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Methodological challenges: Data limitations• Varying measures of reef-dependence

• Fishers: fishing households, boats, gear• Livelihoods: # households, total activities, activity rankings• Production: catch, revenues

• Trade-offs between spatial coverage and comparability (across sites, across countries)

• Spatial scale• Data availability at specific scales• Linking national and finer-scale assessments

• Reef-relevance• Balancing generic and context-specific indicators

» e.g. Philippines fish consumption data

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Beyond the Coral Triangle…

• Reefs at Risk Revisited – Global assessment of vulnerability to reef degradation and loss

• Begins June 2009

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Social vulnerability assessmentGoals:

1. Awareness raising: reef dependence and associated vulnerability

2. Help to reduce vulnerability by:• Identifying the specific drivers of vulnerability in reef-dependent

regions

• Highlighting where particular policy, development, and management measures may be most appropriate

3. Establish baseline measures of vulnerability against which to monitor future changes