Participatory Modelling of Wellbeing Tradeoffs in Coastal Kenya

Tradeoffs, optimising and thinking outside the triangle

Tim Daw, Sara Coulthard, William Cheung, Kate Brown, Tim McClanahan, Diego Galafassi, Caroline Abunge,

Johnstone Omukoto Omuhaya, Garry Peterson, Carlos Ruiz, Amini Tengeza, Lydiah Munyi

Ecosystem Services and Well-being

• Millennium Assessment definition is about WB• Relationship is poorly understood and contingent on many

factors• Aggregated analysis can’t say much about WB

Natural Capital

‘Unnatural Capital’:

LabourTechnology

‘WB Context’:Basic needs &

aspirations

Goods

‘Multipliers’-Markets-Values

PotentialBenefits

Access &

Distribution

Human Wellbeing

• Common focus on win-win– Alignment between conservation, and wellbeing

• Trade-offs often not considered• Wins & losses for particular groups may be hidden

Trade-offs in Ecosystem Services (& Fisheries)

The case study

5 km

MombasaNationalMarine Park

Mombasa

Wellbeing Research

(focus groups)

Ecological Modeling

Participatoryprocesses(workshopactivities)

KenyanCasestudy

Aim: to test a framework to identify trade-offs between ES and wellbeing of different stakeholders

-Social-ecological system models-Scenarios

Ecological modellingEcological Modeling

4

3

2

1

Piscivores

Macro-invertivore fish

Acanth 0

Acanth 12 Acanth 24

Bal 0Bal 12Bal 24

Chaetodontidae

DiodontidaeLab 0 Lab 12 Lab 24

Lobster

Lut 0

Lut 12Lut 24

Mull 0 Mull 12Mull 24

Pomnth 0Pomnth 12Pomnth 24

Pomacentridae

Scar 0 Scar 12Scar 24Sig 0 Sig 12 Sig 24

Octopus

Micro-invertivores fish

Macro-detritivores

Planktivores

MicroinvertebratesDetritivore invertebrates

Corallivore invertebrates

Algivore invertebratesZooplankton

Massive corals

Branching corals

Microplankton

Turf algae

Foliose algae

Calcifying algae Seagrass Detritus

Two biophysical models of the reef/fishery- Ecopath with Ecosim- Stella model of reef dynamics

Specific Questions• Ecosystem service delivery

• Fish• Environmental quality

• Effects of fishing by different gears

Ecopath network model

Tradeoffs in the fishery (Ecopath optimisations) Economic

ProfitsEcological

statusFood

productionBeach Seine

OtherGears

But what are the wellbeing implications of

these trade-offs?

Wellbeing research• Focus on fisheries stakeholders

– Multi-gear users (hand line, spear gun, nets, traps), – Beach seine fishermen– Beach seine captains– Women fishmongers– Male fish traders

• What is wellbeing for these people?

• How easy is it to be well?

Wellbeing research

Things that are important for living well

MoneyGood job‘A developmental mind’ (knowledge, education)SavingsProperty

Donor/ start capitalDecision-making capacity PlanningGood fishing gears Health Good neighbours

Implications for different markets

• Different stakeholders rely on different types of fish. – ‘Mama karangas’ buy small fish (mostly caught by

beach seine) to process and sell to local residents– A better ecological condition would result in larger

fish which would enter higher value markets e.g. hotels.

Participatory Processes

• Secondary stakeholders (government, NGOs, representatives)

• Conceptual model’ of the broader system

• Trends, drivers, possible future scenarios & surprises

Participatoryprocesses

System modelling

• Fuzzy logic system model implemented in Excel

• Iteration with stakeholders who provided improvements

Trade-offs as described by ‘Toy Model’• Optimise for 1

group or objective

• Try to balance for 2 groups, or objectives

• Is there a tradeoff? What shape?

What the model can explore

• What about changing the system?• What about human agency, responses and feedback in the system?• What about other stakeholders, other variables?

Balancing/optimising

Alternative jobs in Economy

Beach SeineEffort

Scenarios

• Stakeholder conceptual model• Drivers exercise• Secondary data

• Explore Scenarios with primary and secondary stakeholders– Likelihood– Implications for wellbeing– Winners and losers– Responses

• Finally policy options considering all the above...

Policy Responses to the Scenarios, considering trade-offs

• Example group discussion on Scenario C: Growth– Action: Enforce regulations– Losers: Beach seine fishers

and women fishmongers– Facilitate alternative livelihoods– Women fishmongers are marginalised and hard to integrate

into alternatives– Response: legislation to promote access to fish for women

fishmongers, or fish prices– Resultant trade-off: Fishermen and women fishmongers

Conclusions• Trade-offs and modelling lens to understand

hard choices within the system– Explicitly consider trade-offs

• A wellbeing angle emphasises trade offs between different groups– Identify most vulnerable to change– Identify groups likely to block change

• Scenarios allow thinking outside the model – additional variables and stakeholders– consideration of how to ‘transform’ the system

Thinking outside the triangle...

Many thanks

• Ecosystem Services and Poverty Allevaition (ESPA programme)

• Wildlife Conservation Society• KMFRI, Kenyan Fisheries Department, Kenya

Wildlife Services• All workshop and focus group participants