Participants:Participants:

• Ulisses E.C. Confalonieri, MD; DVM; DSc (Principal Investigator)

• Ulisses E.C. Confalonieri, MD; DVM; DSc (Principal Investigator)

• Mércia E. Arruda, DSc (Co-PI)

• Mércia E. Arruda, DSc (Co-PI)

BrazilBrazil

Activities:Activities:

Research Activities:Research Activities:• Field data collection and organization.• Field data collection and organization.

• Analysis of correlation between ENSO parameters and malaria index in northern Amazon.

• Analysis of correlation between ENSO parameters and malaria index in northern Amazon.

• Preliminary analysis of malaria incidence as related to precipitation and land cover variation in a municipality in the Amazon.

• Preliminary analysis of malaria incidence as related to precipitation and land cover variation in a municipality in the Amazon.

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Field Records of Malaria from ParáField Records of Malaria from ParáBrazilBrazil

Findings and Achievements:Findings and Achievements:

• Characterization of a natural decrease in malaria incidence during ENSO years in northern Amazonia, Brazil.

• Characterization of a natural decrease in malaria incidence during ENSO years in northern Amazonia, Brazil.

• Organization of a large data set on meteorological data (precipitation) and epidemiological data on tropical diseases, especially malaria and dengue fever.

• Organization of a large data set on meteorological data (precipitation) and epidemiological data on tropical diseases, especially malaria and dengue fever.

BrazilBrazil

Students Involved:Students Involved:

•Roberta Costa Dias (Doctoral Program in Public Health, FIOCRUZ, Brazil).

•Roberta Costa Dias (Doctoral Program in Public Health, FIOCRUZ, Brazil).

•Helen da Costa Gurgel (Doctoral Program in Geography, University of Paris X, France).

•Helen da Costa Gurgel (Doctoral Program in Geography, University of Paris X, France).

•Mariana G. Camponovo (Doctoral Program in Public Health, FIOCRUZ, Brazil).

•Mariana G. Camponovo (Doctoral Program in Public Health, FIOCRUZ, Brazil).

•Aline Nobre (MSc. Program on Biostatistics, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil).

•Aline Nobre (MSc. Program on Biostatistics, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil).

•Daniele Nogueira (Undergraduate in Meteorology, Federal University of Pará, Brazil).

•Daniele Nogueira (Undergraduate in Meteorology, Federal University of Pará, Brazil).

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan/80

Mai/80

Set/80

Jan/81

Mai/81

Set/81

Jan/82

Mai/82

Set/82

Jan/83

Mai/83

Set/83

Jan/84

Mai/84

Set/84

Jan/85

Mai/85

Set/85

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4IPA

SOI

IPA for Malaria and SOI in Roraima1980-1985

IPA for Malaria and SOI in Roraima1980-1985

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0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1995 1996 1997

Cases of Malaria in the State of Roraima Northern Brazil (1995–1996–1997)

Cases of Malaria in the State of Roraima Northern Brazil (1995–1996–1997)

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Landsat Image for Castanhal,

Pará

Landsat Image for Castanhal,

Pará

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Land Cover Classification

for Castanhal, Pará

Land Cover Classification

for Castanhal, Pará

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Vegetation Cover in RoraimaVegetation Cover in Roraima

Source: IBGE, 1998.Source: IBGE, 1998.

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(a) Averaged NDVI from AVHRR/NOAA (1982-2000)

(a) Averaged NDVI from AVHRR/NOAA (1982-2000)

Source: EMBRAPA Monitoramento por Satélite.Source: EMBRAPA Monitoramento por Satélite.

(b) Mosaic of Images(b) Mosaic of Images

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Monthly NDVI for Roraima (1982-2000)Monthly NDVI for Roraima (1982-2000)BrazilBrazil

Cases of Malaria and Monthly Precipitation in RoraimaCases of Malaria and Monthly Precipitation in Roraima

Source: FUNASA E ANEEL.Source: FUNASA E ANEEL.

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Adjustments (Objectives/Workplan):Adjustments (Objectives/Workplan):

• Reduction in the duration of the entomological field work due to a budget cut.

• Reduction in the duration of the entomological field work due to a budget cut.

• Expansion of data collection (malaria/precipitation) and analysis to another Amazonian state in Brazil, due to poor data quality and poor institutional support.

• Expansion of data collection (malaria/precipitation) and analysis to another Amazonian state in Brazil, due to poor data quality and poor institutional support.

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Contributions: Contributions:

• Demonstration of a linkage between a tropical infectious disease (malaria) and the ENSO phenomenon, in a specific area, as a subsidy to the development of a climate-health early warning system.

• Demonstration of a linkage between a tropical infectious disease (malaria) and the ENSO phenomenon, in a specific area, as a subsidy to the development of a climate-health early warning system.

• Development of a conceptual model on the social vulnerability of the population to the health impacts of climate variability in tropical America.

• Development of a conceptual model on the social vulnerability of the population to the health impacts of climate variability in tropical America.

• Assemblage, in digital format, of large time series of malaria data (up to 40 years), on a monthly basis, that otherwise would be lost.

• Assemblage, in digital format, of large time series of malaria data (up to 40 years), on a monthly basis, that otherwise would be lost.

BrazilBrazil

Publications:Publications:

CONFALONIERI, U.E.C., 2003. Climate Variability, Social Vulnerability and Human Health in Brazil. Proc. V Brazilian Congress on Geographic Climatology (in press).

CONFALONIERI, U.E.C., 2003. Climate Variability, Social Vulnerability and Human Health in Brazil. Proc. V Brazilian Congress on Geographic Climatology (in press).

COSTA-DIAS, R.; CONFALONIERI, U.E.C.; HARTMAN, J., 2003. The influence of precipitation on the incidence of malaria in the State of Roraima, Northern Amazonia, Brazil. Submitted to the XXXIX Brazilian Congress of Tropical Medicine, Belém, Pará (16-21, March, 2003).

COSTA-DIAS, R.; CONFALONIERI, U.E.C.; HARTMAN, J., 2003. The influence of precipitation on the incidence of malaria in the State of Roraima, Northern Amazonia, Brazil. Submitted to the XXXIX Brazilian Congress of Tropical Medicine, Belém, Pará (16-21, March, 2003).

NOBRE, A.A.; LOPES, H.F., 2002. Spatial analysis of the relationships between malaria and rainfall in the State of Pará. First National Symp. Probability and Statistics, A. Lindóia, Brazil, July 2002.

NOBRE, A.A.; LOPES, H.F., 2002. Spatial analysis of the relationships between malaria and rainfall in the State of Pará. First National Symp. Probability and Statistics, A. Lindóia, Brazil, July 2002.

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Related Activities:Related Activities:

• Co-chair of the scoping meeting on “Global Environmental Change and Health”, organized by DIVERSITAS/IGBP/IHDP/WCRP (Paris, February 2003).

• Co-chair of the scoping meeting on “Global Environmental Change and Health”, organized by DIVERSITAS/IGBP/IHDP/WCRP (Paris, February 2003).

• Organizer of the first Interamerican Workshop on “Applications of Remote Sensing Technologies to the Control of Infectious Diseases”, sponsored by the U.S. Department of State (Rio de Janeiro, November 2003).

• Organizer of the first Interamerican Workshop on “Applications of Remote Sensing Technologies to the Control of Infectious Diseases”, sponsored by the U.S. Department of State (Rio de Janeiro, November 2003).

• Coordinating Lead Author of the chapter on “Human Infectious Diseases”, Conditions and Trends Working Group of the MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT (UNEP/FAO/WHO).

• Coordinating Lead Author of the chapter on “Human Infectious Diseases”, Conditions and Trends Working Group of the MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT (UNEP/FAO/WHO).

BrazilBrazil