PART A L GLOBAL 4 ENERGY E TRENDS COAL … fuelling future reconstruction and growth 449 Overview of energy demand trends 450 Outlook for the power sector in the Central Scenario 454

ANNEXES

TABLE

OF

CONTENTS

PART CIRAQENERGY OUTLOOK

PART AGLOBALENERGYTRENDS

PART DSPECIALTOPICS

PART BFOCUS ON ENERGYEFFICIENCY

WEO_2012_ToC_Oct_2012.indd 1 10/11/2012 9:53:05 AM

ANNEXES

IRAQ OIL AND GAS RESOURCES AND SUPPLY POTENTIAL 14

IMPLICATIONS OF IRAQ’S ENERGY DEVELOPMENT 16

IRAQ TODAY: ENERGY AND THE ECONOMY 13

IRAQ: FUELLING FUTURE RECONSTRUCTION AND GROWTH 15

UNLOCKING ENERGY EFFICIENCY AT THE SECTORAL LEVEL 11

PATHWAYS TO ENERGY EFFICIENCY 12

ENERGY EFFICIENCY: THE CURRENT STATE OF PLAY 9

A BLUEPRINT FOR AN ENERGY EFFICIENT WORLD 10

UNDERSTANDING THE SCENARIOS 1

ENERGY TRENDS TO 2035 2

OIL MARKET OUTLOOK 3

COAL MARKET OUTLOOK

RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

5

7

NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK 4

POWER SECTOR OUTLOOK 6

CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND THE 450 SCENARIO 8

WATER FOR ENERGY 17

MEASURING PROGRESS TOWARDS ENERGY FOR ALL 18


014-15_TOC-Chapters_weo_05.indd 14 18/10/2012 15:47:15

ANNEXES

TABLE

OF

CONTENTS

PART CIRAQENERGY OUTLOOK

PART AGLOBALENERGYTRENDS

PART DSPECIALTOPICS

PART BFOCUS ON ENERGYEFFICIENCY


ANNEXES

IRAQ OIL AND GAS RESOURCES AND SUPPLY POTENTIAL 14

IMPLICATIONS OF IRAQ’S ENERGY DEVELOPMENT 16

IRAQ TODAY: ENERGY AND THE ECONOMY 13

IRAQ: FUELLING FUTURE RECONSTRUCTION AND GROWTH 15

UNLOCKING ENERGY EFFICIENCY AT THE SECTORAL LEVEL 11

PATHWAYS TO ENERGY EFFICIENCY 12

ENERGY EFFICIENCY: THE CURRENT STATE OF PLAY 9

A BLUEPRINT FOR AN ENERGY EFFICIENT WORLD 10

UNDERSTANDING THE SCENARIOS 1

ENERGY TRENDS TO 2035 2

OIL MARKET OUTLOOK 3

COAL MARKET OUTLOOK

RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

5

7

NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK 4

POWER SECTOR OUTLOOK 6

CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND THE 450 SCENARIO 8

WATER FOR ENERGY 17

MEASURING PROGRESS TOWARDS ENERGY FOR ALL 18


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www.worldenergyoutlook.org

© OECD/IEA, 2012 © OECD/IEA, 2012

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org

16 World Energy Outlook 2012

Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS 31

Understanding the scenarios 33Defining the scenarios 34Non-policy assumptions 36

Economic growth 36Population 39Energy prices 40CO2 prices 44Technology 46

Energy trends to 2035 49Global energy trends by scenario 50Energy trends in the New Policies Scenario 52

Primary energy demand 52Energy supply and trade 63Energy-related CO2 emissions 68Economic implications 69

US developments redefining the global energy map 74Diverging trends in import dependency 75The impact of unconventional gas 77The direction of oil trade and supply security 78

Oil market outlook 81Demand 82

Primary oil demand trends 82Regional trends 84Sectoral trends 87Special topic: heavy freight road transport 91

Supply 97Reserves and resources 97Production prospects 101Trade 119Investment in oil and gas 120

Natural gas market outlook 125Demand 126

Gas demand trends 126Regional trends 127Sectoral trends 132

4

1

2

3

Foreword 3Acknowledgements 5Executive Summary 23

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Table of Contents 17

Production 133Reserves and resources 133Gas production prospects 136Focus on prospects for unconventional gas 141

Trade 146Inter-regional trade 146The pricing of internationally traded gas 150

Investment 154

Coal market outlook 155Demand 156

Overview of global demand trends 156Sectoral trends 159Regional trends 159

Supply 163Reserves and resources 163Overview of global supply trends 164Regional trends 166

Coal markets and industry trends 174Developments in international pricing 174Cost and investment developments 176

Power sector outlook 179Electricity demand 180Electricity supply 182

Capacity retirements and additions 183Fossil-fuelled generation 188Nuclear power 190Renewables 191Transmission and distribution 192Investment 193CO2 emissions 196

Regional trends 197Focus on electricity prices 202

Renewable energy outlook 211Recent developments 212Outlook for renewable energy by scenario 214Outlook by type in the New Policies Scenario 219

Focus on bioenergy 219Hydropower 225Wind power 226Solar photovoltaics 227Other renewables for electricity and heat 229

5

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Costs of renewables 230Investment 230Production costs 231Subsidies to renewables 233Integration of variable renewables into the electricity system 236

Benefits of renewables 238

Climate change mitigation and the 450 Scenario 241Introduction 242Recent developments 242The world of the 450 Scenario 245

Comparison to other scenarios 245Primary energy demand and electricity generation in the 450 Scenario 249Energy-related emissions and abatement 252Benefits of the 450 Scenario 257

Carbon in energy reserves and energy infrastructure 259Potential CO2 emissions in fossil-fuel reserves 259Emissions lock-in 261

Part B: FOCUS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY 267

Energy efficiency: the current state of play 269Introduction 270The current status of energy efficiency 271

Existing policies 274Barriers to energy efficiency deployment 280

The outlook for energy efficiency 282Trends by region 284Trends by sector 287Role in reducing CO2 emissions 289Untapped economically viable potential in the New Policies Scenario 290

Investment in energy efficiency 292

A blueprint for an energy-efficient world 297The Efficient World Scenario 298

Introduction 298Methodology and assumptions 298

Energy markets in the Efficient World Scenario 302Trends by fuel 303Energy intensity 307

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Energy prices 307Energy trade 308Investment and fuel savings 312

Implications for the global economy 313Environmental implications 317

Energy-related CO2 emissions 317Local pollution 319

The role of energy efficiency in increasing energy access 321Building the Efficient World Scenario: a blueprint for savings 322

Unlocking energy efficiency at the sectoral level 327The balance of sectoral opportunities 328Buildings 330

Techno-economic potential and policy framework 330Outlook 331Trends by sub-sector 334

Industry 338Techno-economic potential and policy framework 338Outlook 340Trends by sub-sector 342

Transport 344Techno-economic potential and policy framework 344Outlook 346Trends by sub-sector 349

Power generation and electricity demand 351Techno-economic potential and policy framework 351Outlook 352

Pathways to energy efficiency 357What is included in the profiles? 357

How to read the profiles 357World 360United States 364European Union 368Japan 372China 376India 380

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Part C: IRAQ ENERGY OUTLOOK 385

Iraq today: energy and the economy 387Iraq’s energy sector 388

Overview of energy supply 390Overview of energy demand 397

The context for Iraq’s energy development 403The economy 403Legal and institutional framework 405Security 411Environment and water 412

Projecting future developments 413

Iraq oil and gas resources and supply potential 419Oil 420

Reserves and resources 420Production 425Crude oil conversion and bringing oil to market 433Water requirements 436

Natural gas 439Reserves and resources 439Production 440

Oil and gas investment 445

Iraq: fuelling future reconstruction and growth 449Overview of energy demand trends 450Outlook for the power sector in the Central Scenario 454

Electricity demand 454Electricity generation 456Transmission and distribution 462Investment in the power sector 463Measuring the value of changes in the power sector 464

Outlook for end-use sectors 466Transport 466Industry 468Buildings and other sectors 470

Environment 471Energy-related emissions 471Water use 472

High Case 473Delayed Case 474

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Implications of Iraq’s energy development 477Energy in Iraq’s economic and social development 478

The Central Scenario 478Economic development in the High and the Delayed Cases 484

Iraq’s impact on international oil markets 485The Central Scenario 486Iraq’s oil market impact in the High and Delayed Cases 489

Iraq’s impact on international gas markets 492

Part D: SPECIAL TOPICS 499

Water for energy 501Introduction 502

Facing a more water-constrained future 502Water for energy linkages 505

Primary energy production 506Electricity generation 508The vulnerability of energy to water constraints 512

Outlook for water requirements for energy production 514Regional stress points 518

China 518India 521United States 523Canada 525

How serious is the water constraint? 527

Measuring progress towards energy for all 529Introduction 530Global status of modern energy access 532Outlook for energy access in the New Policies Scenario 535

Access to electricity 535Access to clean cooking facilities 537

Energy for All Case 538Energy Development Index 541

Energy development framework 541Results from the Energy Development Index 544

ANNExES 549Annex A. Tables for Scenario Projections 551Annex B. Policies and measures by scenario 629Annex C. Definitions 641Annex D. References 655

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World Energy Outlook 2012

List of figures

Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS

Figures for Chapter 1: Understanding the scenarios 1.1 Average IEA crude oil price 421.2 Ratio of average natural gas and coal prices to crude oil prices in the

New Policies Scenario 43

Figures for Chapter 2: Energy trends to 2035 2.1 World primary energy demand by scenario 502.2 Global energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario 522.3 World primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario 542.4 World primary energy demand per unit of GDP and per capita in the

New Policies Scenario in selected regions and countries 552.5 Non-OECD primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 562.6 Share of China and India in net increase in global primary energy demand

by fuel and CO2 emissions in the New Policies Scenario, 2010-2035 572.7 OECD primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario 602.8 The global energy system, 2010 622.9 Fossil fuel production in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario,

2010 and 2035 652.10 Change in key WEO-2012 projections for 2035 compared with WEO-2011

in the New Policies Scenario 672.11 Energy-related CO2 emissions in selected countries and regions in the

New Policies Scenario, 2010 and 2035 692.12 Economic value of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies by fuel 702.13 Economic value of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies by fuel for top

25 countries, 2011 712.14 Spending on net imports of fossil fuels in the New Policies Scenario 732.15 Net energy self-sufficiency in selected countries and regions in the

New Policies Scenario 752.16 Net oil and gas import dependency in selected countries in the New

Policies Scenario 762.17 Reductions in net oil imports in the United States by source in the New

Policies Scenario 772.18 Share of inter-regional oil and gas trade through key choke points in the

New Policies Scenario 79

Figures for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook 3.1 World oil demand and oil price by scenario 823.2 Oil demand growth by region in the New Policies Scenario 853.3 World oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario 883.4 World transport oil demand by sub-sector in the New Policies Scenario 893.5 Cumulative oil savings from vehicle fuel-economy standards in selected

regions, 2010-2035 90

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3.6 PLDV fleet in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario 913.7 Incremental road freight growth by region since 2000 in the New Policies

Scenario 923.8 Freight truck sales and stock by region in the New Policies Scenario 933.9 World freight truck oil demand in the New Policies Scenario 943.10 Alternative fuel use by freight trucks in the New Policies Scenario 953.11 Average on-road fuel consumption of heavy freight trucks by region in the

New Policies Scenario 973.12 Proven oil reserves in the top 15 countries, end-2011 983.13 Ultimately technically recoverable resources and cumulative production

by region in the New Policies Scenario 993.14 Liquid fuels schematic 1003.15 World oil supply by type in the New Policies Scenario 1033.16 World oil production by type in the New Policies Scenario 1043.17 World oil production by quality in the New Policies Scenario 1043.18 United States oil production by type in the New Policies Scenario 1063.19 Change in oil production in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario,

2011-2035 1143.20 World offshore crude oil production by physiographical location

and region in the New Policies Scenario 1193.21 Net oil imports in selected countries and regions in the New Policies Scenario 1203.22 Worldwide upstream oil and gas investment and the IEA Upstream

Investment Cost Index 123

Figures for Chapter 4: Natural gas market outlook 4.1 World natural gas demand by scenario 1264.2 Natural gas demand in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario 1284.3 Indicative economics of LNG exports from the United States 1304.4 World natural gas demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario 1324.5 Unconventional gas production in leading countries in the New Policies

Scenario, 2035 1424.6 Active drilling rigs in the United States, 2002-2012 1434.7 Relationship between break-even price (gas price needed to recover well

costs) and the liquid content of the gas produced 1444.8 World unconventional gas production by type and scenario/case 1454.9 Percentage change in selected economic and energy indicators

in the United States, 2006-2011 1464.10 Net inter-regional natural gas trade flows between major regions in

the New Policies Scenario 1494.11 World short-term LNG trade, 2000-2011 153

Figures for Chapter 5: Coal market outlook 5.1 Share of coal in world primary energy demand by scenario 1565.2 Incremental world primary energy demand by fuel, 2001-2011 158



5.3 Incremental coal demand in China and the rest of the world by major sector in the New Policies Scenario 161

5.4 Share of key regions in global coal demand in the New Policies Scenario 1625.5 Share of coal and natural gas in US electricity generation in the New Policies

Scenario 1635.6 World hard coal reserves by country, end-2010 1645.7 Change in world coal production by type and scenario, 2010-2035 1655.8 Share of major hard coal importers in global inter-regional trade in the

New Policies Scenario 1705.9 China’s hard coal net trade in the New Policies Scenario 1715.10 United States hard coal net trade in the New Policies Scenario 1725.11 Australian hard coal exports by type in the New Policies Scenario 1745.12 Average fortnightly steam coal prices in selected ports 1755.13 Average FOB supply cash costs and prices for internationally traded steam

coal, 2011 177

Figures for Chapter 6: Power sector outlook 6.1 World electricity supply and demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario 1816.2 Share of electricity generation by source and region in the New Policies

Scenario 1836.3 Power generation gross capacity additions and retirements in the New Policies

Scenario, 2012-2035 1846.4 World net incremental generation and capacity by type in the New Policies

Scenario, 2010-2035 1856.5 Coal-fired power generation by selected region in the New Policies Scenario 1886.6 Gas-fired electricity generation by region in the New Policies Scenario 1896.7 Nuclear power capacity by region in the New Policies Scenario 1916.8 Share of renewables in electricity generation by region in the New Policies

Scenario 1926.9 Power sector cumulative investment by type in the New Policies Scenario,

2012-2035 1956.10 Annual average investment in T&D infrastructure in the New Policies Scenario 1956.11 CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion in the power sector and emission

intensity per unit of electricity generation by selected region in the New Policies Scenario 196

6.12 United States electricity generation by source in the New Policies Scenario 1976.13 Japan electricity generation by source in the New Policies Scenario 1996.14 Renewables-based electricity generation by source and share of total

generation in the European Union in the New Policies Scenario 2006.15 Power generating capacity additions by source in China and share of global

additions in New Policies Scenario, 2012-2035 2016.16 Share of oil and gas electricity generation in selected regions in the New

Policies Scenario 2026.17 Components of the end-user price of electricity 203

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6.18 Average electricity price to households in selected European countries by cost component, excluding taxes, 2011 203

6.19 Change in end-user prices by type of consumer and selected region in the New Policies Scenario, 2011-2035 204

6.20 Wholesale electricity prices by region and cost component in the New Policies Scenario 207

6.21 Average household electricity prices by region and cost component in the New Policies Scenario 208

6.22 Total cost per capita of residential sector electricity in selected countries, and share of household income spent on electricity 209

Figures for Chapter 7: Renewable energy outlook 7.1 Share of renewables by category and scenario 2177.2 World average annual renewables-based capacity additions by type

in the New Policies Scenario 2177.3 World bioenergy use by sector and use of traditional biomass in the

New Policies Scenario, 2010 and 2035 2197.4 Share of solid biomass supply for biofuels and power generation by feedstock

in the New Policies Scenario 2247.5 Share of bioenergy demand for biofuels and power generation from domestic

production and imports, 2010 and 2035 2257.6 Installed hydropower capacity in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario 2267.7 Solar PV gross capacity additions, average unit cost, and resulting investment

requirements in the New Policies Scenario 2287.8 Cumulative investment in renewables-based electricity generation by region

and type in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2035 2317.9 Indicative biofuels production costs and spot oil prices 2327.10 Global renewable energy subsidies by source in the New Policies Scenario 2347.11 Subsidised and unsubsidised renewables-based electricity generation

by type in the New Policies Scenario 2357.12 Global subsidies to renewables-based electricity generation and biofuels

by region in the New Policies Scenario 2357.13 Subsidy lock-in of renewables-based electricity generation in the New

Policies Scenario 2367.14 Installed wind and solar PV capacity and their contribution to system

adequacy in the New Policies Scenario 2387.15 CO2 emissions savings from greater use of renewables, relative to 2010

fuel mix in the New Policies Scenario 239

Figures for Chapter 8: Climate change mitigation and the 450 Scenario 8.1 Annual change in global energy-related CO2 emissions by fuel and global

GDP growth 2438.2 Energy-related CO2 emissions per capita by region, 2011 2448.3 Global energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario 246



8.4 Greenhouse-gas concentration pathways and probability distribution of equilibrium temperature increase above pre-industrial levels 247

8.5 Primary energy demand in the 450 Scenario by fuel 2498.6 Electricity generation from low-carbon technologies and share by scenario,

2010 and 2035 2508.7 Global energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the 450 Scenario relative

to the New Policies Scenario 2538.8 Global CO2 emissions reduction in the 450 Scenario relative to the

New Policies Scenario in global road transport 2548.9 Per-capita emissions and total emissions by region 2558.10 Fossil fuel-import bills in selected regions by scenario 2588.11 Potential CO2 emissions from proven fossil-fuel reserves at the end of 2011

by region 2608.12 Potential CO2 emissions from remaining fossil-fuel reserves by fuel type 2618.13 Energy-related CO2 emissions from locked-in infrastructure in 2011

and in the 450 Scenario in OECD countries 2628.14 Energy-related CO2 emissions from locked-in infrastructure in 2011

and in the 450 Scenario in non-OECD countries 2638.15 Global energy-related CO2 emissions in the 450 Scenario and from locked-in

infrastructure 265

Part B: FOCUS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Figures for Chapter 9: Energy efficiency: the current state of play 9.1 Global energy intensity average annual growth rates, 1971-2010 2729.2 Energy intensities by regions, 1980 and 2010 2739.3 Energy intensity trends by region, 1980-2010 2749.4 Change in global primary energy demand by measure and by scenario 2829.5 Savings in primary energy due to energy efficiency in the New Policies

Scenario compared with the Current Policies Scenario by region, 2035 2869.6 Decomposition of the change in final energy consumption in the New Policies

Scenario compared with the Current Policies Scenario by sector in 2035 2899.7 Contribution of change in CO2 emissions by policies in the New Policies

Scenario compared with the Current Policies Scenario 2899.8 Trends in energy and CO2 intensity by scenario, 2010-2035 2909.9 Utilised long-term energy efficiency economic potential in the New Policies

Scenario, 2011-2035 2919.10 Average annual increase in energy efficiency investment in the New Policies

Scenario compared with the Current Policies Scenario 2939.11 Average payback periods for energy efficiency measures in the New Policies

Scenario by sector including and excluding transaction costs 2959.12 Investment in energy efficiency by country and region, 2011 296

Table of Contents

Figures for Chapter 10: A blueprint for an energy-efficient world 10.1 Representation of energy efficiency by end-use sector in the World

Energy Model as considered in the Efficient World Scenario 29910.2 Efficient World Scenario methodology 30110.3 World primary energy demand in the Efficient World Scenario by fuel 30310.4 Reduction in global oil demand in the Efficient World Scenario compared

with the New Policies Scenario 30410.5 Reduction in electricity demand by region in the Efficient World Scenario

compared with the New Policies Scenario 30510.6 Reduction in global coal demand in the Efficient World Scenario compared

with the New Policies Scenario 30610.7 Reduction in global natural gas demand in the Efficient World Scenario

compared with the New Policies Scenario 30610.8 Average annual change in global energy intensity in the Efficient World

Scenario 30710.9 Fuel import bills in selected countries by fuel and scenario 31010.10 Change in investment across the electricity value chain in the Efficient World

Scenario, compared with the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2035 31310.11 Change in real GDP in the Efficient World Scenario compared with the

New Policies Scenario 31410.12 Changes in value-added by sector and region in the Efficient World Scenario

compared with the New Policies Scenario in 2035 31510.13 Change in global trade flows for selected sectors in the Efficient World

Scenario compared with the New Policies Scenario in 2035 31710.14 Energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario and abatement measures 31810.15 Cumulative efficiency-related CO2 emissions savings in the Efficient

World Scenario relative to New Policies Scenario by sector and region 31810.16 Additional electricity needed to achieve energy for all in India compared

with savings in the Efficient World Scenario, 2011-2030 321

Figures for Chapter 11: Unlocking energy efficiency at the sectoral level 11.1 Energy savings in 2035 by fuel and sector in the Efficient World Scenario

compared to the New Policies Scenario 32811.2 Savings in residential energy demand in the Efficient World Scenario

relative to the New Policies Scenario by contributing factor 33411.3 Change in energy demand in the residential sector in the Efficient

World Scenario and the New Policies Scenario from 2010 to 2035 by end-use 33511.4 Cumulative new industry capacity as a share of currently installed global

capacity in the Efficient World Scenario 33811.5 Average annual change in industrial activity, efficiency and energy demand by

industrial sub-sector and scenario, 2010-2035 34111.6 Fuel savings in the transport sector in the Efficient World Scenario 34711.7 Energy savings in the transport sector by region in the Efficient World Scenario

relative to the New Policies Scenario 349



11.8 Energy savings in the transport sector in the Efficient World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario by sub-sector 349

11.9 Energy savings in road transport in the Efficient World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 350

11.10 Power generation energy savings by measure in the Efficient World Scenario 35311.11 Coal-fired capacity by technology in the Efficient World Scenario 356

Figures for Chapter 12: Pathways to energy efficiency 12.1a Global primary energy demand by scenario 36012.1b Changes in global real GDP and value-added by sector in the Efficient World

Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 36112.1c Global additional investment by end-use sector in the Efficient World Scenario

relative to the New Policies Scenario 36112.1d Global change in energy consumption in energy-intensive industries in the

Efficient World Scenario, 2010-2035 36212.1e Global oil demand savings in the transport sector in the Efficient World

Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 36212.1f Global energy demand and savings in the residential sector in the Efficient

World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 36212.2a United States primary energy demand by scenario 36412.2b United States fossil fuel net trade (current) and import bills in the Efficient

World Scenario and the New Policies Scenario 36512.2c United States additional investment by end-use sector in the Efficient World

Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 36512.2d United States change in energy consumption in energy-intensive industries

in the Efficient World Scenario, 2010-2035 36612.2e United States oil demand savings in the transport sector in the Efficient World

Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 36612.2f United States energy demand and savings in the residential sector in the

Efficient World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 36612.3a European Union primary energy demand by scenario 36812.3b European Union fossil fuel net trade (current) and import bills in the Efficient

World Scenario and the New Policies Scenario 36912.3c European Union additional investment by end-use sector in the Efficient World

Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 36912.3d European Union change in energy consumption in energy-intensive

industries in the Efficient World Scenario, 2010-2035 37012.3e European Union oil demand savings in the transport sector in the Efficient

World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 37012.3f European Union energy demand and savings in the residential sector in the

Efficient World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 37012.4a Japan’s primary energy demand by scenario 37212.4b Japan’s fossil fuel net trade (current) and import bills in the Efficient World

Scenario and the New Policies Scenario 373

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12.4c Japan’s additional investment by end-use sector in the Efficient World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 373

12.4d Japan’s change in energy consumption in energy-intensive industries in the Efficient World Scenario, 2010-2035 374

12.4e Japan’s oil demand savings in the transport sector in the Efficient World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 374

12.4f Japan’s energy demand and savings in the residential sector in the Efficient World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 374

12.5a China’s primary energy demand by scenario 37612.5b China’s fossil fuel net trade (current) and import bills in the Efficient

World Scenario and the New Policies Scenario 37712.5c China’s additional investment by end-use sector in the Efficient World Scenario

relative to the New Policies Scenario 37712.5d China’s change in energy consumption in energy-intensive industries

in the Efficient World Scenario, 2010-2035 37812.5e China’s oil demand savings in the transport sector in the Efficient World

Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 37812.5f China’s energy demand and savings in the residential sector in the Efficient

World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 37812.6a India’s primary energy demand by scenario 38012.6b India’s fossil fuel net trade (current) and import bills in the Efficient World

Scenario and the New Policies Scenario 38112.6c India’s additional investment by end-use sector in the Efficient World Scenario

relative to the New Policies Scenario 38112.6d India’s change in energy consumption in energy-intensive industries in

the Efficient World Scenario, 2010-2035 38212.6e India’s oil demand savings in the transport sector in the Efficient World

Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 38212.6f India’s energy demand and savings in the residential sector in the Efficient

World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 382

Part C: IRAQ ENERGY OUTLOOK

Figures for Chapter 13: Iraq today: energy and the economy 13.1 Iraq hydrocarbon resources and infrastructure 38813.2 GDP per capita for selected countries, 2011 38913.3 Hydrocarbon revenue relative to GDP in selected countries, 2011 39013.4 Iraq oil production 39113.5 Iraq average daily oil production and transportation, June 2012 39213.6 Average refinery product slate in Iraq compared to the United States, 2011 39413.7 Iraq monthly gas production and transportation, June 2012 39513.8 Iraq crude oil exports by destination market 39713.9 Primary energy demand per capita in Iraq and the Middle East 39713.10 Evolution of the energy mix in Iraq and the Middle East 398



13.11 Iraq domestic energy balance, 2010 39913.12 Iraq difference between gross installed generation capacity and available

peak capacity, 2011 40013.13 Iraq source and reliability of electricity supply by governorate, 2011 40213.14 Electricity losses by type in selected countries, 2010 40313.15 Iraq monthly oil export revenues by route 40413.16 Number of years cover for oil revenues from financial reserves in selected

countries, 2011 40513.17 Iraq main government institutions related to the energy sector 41013.18 Total number of attacks in Iraq (weekly) 41213.19 Variations in Iraq’s GDP growth by scenario 415

Figures for Chapter 14: Iraq oil and gas resources and supply potential 14.1 Iraq main hydrocarbon basins and fields 42114.2 Iraq oil reserves by field, end-2011 42314.3 Iraq production outlook to 2020 in context 42714.4 Northern Iraq oil and gas fields and infrastructure 43114.5 Wells by type and rig count required in the Central Scenario 43214.6 Iraq refinery capacity in the Central Scenario 43314.7 Southern Iraq oil and gas fields and infrastructure 43514.8 Reservoir pressure and recovery factors prior to and after the start of water

injection at the Rumaila and Kirkuk fields 43714.9 Net water requirement in southern Iraq oil fields by source in the Central

Scenario 43814.10 Iraq gas production in the Central Scenario 44214.11 Iraq associated gas processing capacity additions and flaring reduction in the

Central Scenario 44214.12 Iraq non-associated gas production by region in the Central Scenario

and High Case 44414.13 Iraq oil and gas investment in the Central Scenario 44614.14 Average oil and gas project preparation and completion times

in the Middle East 447

Figures for Chapter 15: Iraq: fuelling future reconstruction and growth 15.1 Iraq total primary energy demand by scenario 45015.2 Iraq total primary energy demand by fuel in the Central Scenario 45215.3 Total primary energy demand per capita in selected countries in the Central

Scenario 45315.4 Energy intensity in selected countries in the Central Scenario 45315.5 Iraq total final electricity consumption by sector and estimated

unmet electricity demand in the Central Scenario 45415.6 Iraq net generation capacity available at peak and capacity required to meet

peak demand in the Central Scenario 45515.7 Iraq grid-connected gross generation capacity in the Central Scenario 45615.8 Expected completion time of selected power plants in Iraq 457

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15.9 Iraq electricity generation by fuel and overall efficiency of power generation in the Central Scenario 459

15.10 Levelised cost of base-load plants with international fuel prices in 2020 (Central Scenario) and current domestic fuel prices in Iraq 461

15.11 Iraq annual average investment in power generation capacity and electricity networks in the Central Scenario 463

15.12 Export value of fuel saved in the power sector as a result of changes from 2015 46515.13 Iraq fossil-fuel consumption subsidies in the Central Scenario 46615.14 Iraq PLDV ownership and oil demand in transport in the Central Scenario 46715.15 PLDV ownership and stocks in selected countries in the Central Scenario 46815.16 Iraq domestic energy balance in the Central Scenario, 2035 46915.17 Iraq energy-related CO2 emissions by fuel and its share of Middle East

emissions in the Central Scenario 47115.18 Carbon intensity in selected countries in the Central Scenario 47215.19 Iraq water requirements, 2015 473

Figures for Chapter 16: Implications of Iraq’s energy development 16.1 Iraq oil and gas export revenues in the Central Scenario 47816.2 Oil production and export revenue as a share of GDP in selected countries

in the Central Scenario, 2011 and 2035 47916.3 Iraq annual average investment in energy supply infrastructure in the Central

Scenario 48016.4 Iraq labour force and estimated direct oil sector employment in the Central

Scenario 48116.5 Growth in OPEC and non-OPEC supply in the Central Scenario 48616.6 Major contributors to global oil supply growth to 2035 in the Central Scenario 48716.7 Iraq oil balance in the Central Scenario 48716.8 Iraq oil balance in the High Case 49016.9 Key oil market indicators in 2035 in the Delayed Case, relative to the Central

Scenario 49216.10 Growth in natural gas production in selected countries in the Central Scenario 49316.11 Iraq gas balance in the Central Scenario 49416.12 Indicative delivered supply costs and prices for Iraq gas export, 2020 49716.13 Natural gas production and export in the High Case and the Delayed Case 498

Part D: SPECIAL TOPICS

Figures for Chapter 17: Water for energy 17.1 World water resources and human freshwater use 50217.2 Renewable water resources per capita in 2010 50417.3 Water use for primary energy production 50717.4 Water use for electricity generation by cooling technology 51017.5 Share of power generation capacity with freshwater once-through cooling

and hydro in selected countries, 2010 513



17.6 Global water use for energy production by scenario 51417.7 Global water use for energy production in the New Policies Scenario

by fuel and power generation type 51617.8 Water intensity of energy production for selected regions in the New Policies

Scenario 51717.9 Renewable water resources per capita and distribution of water-intensive

energy production by type in China 51817.10 Water use for energy production in China in the New Policies Scenario 51917.11 Renewable water resources per capita and distribution of water-intensive

energy production by type in India 52217.12 Water use for energy production in India in the New Policies Scenario 52317.13 Water use for energy production in the United States in the New Policies

Scenario 52417.14 Canadian oil sands production and estimated water withdrawal by type

in the New Policies Scenario 527

Figures for Chapter 18: Measuring progress towards energy for all 18.1 Countries with the largest population without access to electricity, 2010 53318.2 Countries with the largest population relying on traditional use of biomass

for cooking, 2010 53418.3 Electricity consumption per capita in selected regions in the New Policies

Scenario 53718.4 Number of people without clean cooking facilities by region in the New Policies

Scenario 53818.5 Average annual investment in modern energy access in selected regions,

2011-2030 53918.6 Additional impact of the Energy for All Case compared with the New Policies

Scenario 54018.7 Energy development framework 54218.8 Composition of the new Energy Development Index 54318.9 Energy Development Index country results, 2010 (and 2002) 54518.10 Comparison between the new Energy Development Index and the Human

Development Index in 2010 547

List of tables


Tables for Chapter 1: Understanding the scenarios 1.1 Definitions and objectives of the WEO-2012 scenarios 351.2 Real GDP growth assumptions by region 371.3 Population assumptions by region 391.4 Fossil-fuel import price assumptions by scenario 411.5 CO2 price assumptions in selected regions and countries by scenario 46

Table of Contents

Tables for Chapter 2: Energy trends to 2035 2.1 World primary energy demand and energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario 512.2 World primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario 532.3 World primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 582.4 Fossil-fuel reserves and resources by region and type, end-2011 642.5 Cumulative investment in energy-supply infrastructure in the New Policies

Scenario, 2012-2035 74

Tables for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook 3.1 Oil and total liquids demand by scenario 833.2 Oil demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 853.3 Remaining technically recoverable oil resources by type and region, end-2011 1013.4 Oil production and oil and liquids supply by type and scenario 1023.5 Non-OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario 1073.6 OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario 1153.7 Oil and gas industry investment by company 1213.8 Cumulative investment in oil and gas supply infrastructure by region

in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2035 124

Tables for Chapter 4: Natural gas market outlook 4.1 Natural gas demand by region and scenario 1274.2 Natural gas demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 1284.3 Remaining technically recoverable natural gas resources by type and region,

end-2011 1344.4 Natural gas production by major region and scenario 1364.5 Natural gas production by region in the New Policies Scenario 1384.6 Inter-regional natural gas net trade in the New Policies Scenario 1474.7 LNG export projects under construction worldwide 150

Tables for Chapter 5: Coal market outlook 5.1 Coal demand by region and scenario 1575.2 World coal demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario 1595.3 Coal demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 1605.4 Coal production by type and scenario 1655.5 World inter-regional hard coal trade by type and scenario 1665.6 Coal production by region in the New Policies Scenario 1685.7 Inter-regional hard coal trade in the New Policies Scenario 1695.8 Selected Indian foreign direct investment in coal supply projects 173

Tables for Chapter 6: Power sector outlook 6.1 Electricity demand by region and scenario 1806.2 Electricity generation by source and scenario 1826.3 Cumulative capacity retirements by region and source in the New

Policies Scenario, 2012-2035 1866.4 Cumulative gross capacity additions by region and source in the New

Policies Scenario, 2012-2035 187



6.5 Investment in electricity-supply infrastructure by region and source in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2035 194

Tables for Chapter 7: Renewable energy outlook 7.1 Total primary demand for renewable energy by region and scenario 2157.2 World renewable energy use by type and scenario 2167.3 Renewables-based electricity generation by region in the New Policies

Scenario 2187.4 Ethanol and biodiesel consumption by region in the New Policies Scenario 2217.5 Installed onshore and offshore wind power capacity by region in the New

Policies Scenario 227

Tables for Chapter 8: Climate change mitigation and the 450 Scenario 8.1 World anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions by scenario 2468.2 Probability of staying below a specified temperature threshold by scenario 2478.3 Global air pollution by scenario 258


Tables for Chapter 9: Energy efficiency: the current state of play 9.1 Overview of key energy efficiency policies that are currently in place

by country/region and sector 2769.2 Key barriers and remedial policy tools 2809.3 Key energy efficiency assumptions in major countries/regions in the

New Policies and 450 Scenarios 2859.4 Energy demand and savings due to efficiency measures in the New Policies

Scenario compared with the Current Policies Scenario by end-use sector 288

Tables for Chapter 10: A blueprint for an energy-efficient world 10.1 World primary energy demand in the Efficient World Scenario by fuel 30210.2 Fossil-fuel import prices in the Efficient World Scenario 30810.3 Investment in energy efficiency, energy savings and fuel cost savings

by end-use sector in the Efficient World Scenario compared with the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2035 312

10.4 Air pollution by region and sector 320

Tables for Chapter 11: Unlocking energy efficiency at the sectoral level 11.1 Summary of key policies by sector in the Efficient World Scenario 32911.2 Global buildings energy demand by fuel and energy-related CO2 emissions

in the Efficient World Scenario 33111.3 Global industry energy demand by fuel and energy-related CO2 emissions

in the Efficient World Scenario 34111.4 Global transport energy demand by fuel and energy-related CO2 emissions

in the Efficient World Scenario 34611.5 Installed capacity, fuel consumption and electricity generation in the

Efficient World Scenario 355

Table of Contents

Tables for Chapter 12: Pathways to energy efficiency 12.1a World key indicators 36012.1b Global economic and environmental benefits 36112.1c World final energy consumption 36312.2a United States key indicators 36412.2b United States economic and environmental benefits 36512.2c United States final energy consumption 36712.3a European Union key indicators 36812.3b European Union economic and environmental benefits 36912.3c European Union final energy consumption 37112.4a Japan’s key indicators 37212.4b Japan’s economic and environmental benefits 37312.4c Japan’s final energy consumption 37512.5a China’s key indicators 37612.5b China’s economic and environmental benefits 37712.5c China’s final energy consumption 37912.6a India’s key indicators 38012.6b India’s economic and environmental benefits 38112.6c India’s final energy consumption 383


Tables for Chapter 13: Iraq today: energy and the economy 13.1 Contracts awarded by federal authorities for hydrocarbon exploration and

development 40713.2 Growth rates for Iraqi oil output and GDP by scenario 41413.3 Main assumptions for Iraq in the Central Scenario 417

Tables for Chapter 14: Iraq oil and gas resources and supply potential 14.1 Iraq oil resources by region and super-giant field 42214.2 Indicative oil development and production costs in selected countries 42414.3 Iraq oil production by region in the Central Scenario and the High Case 42914.4 Iraq gas resources by region and super-giant field 44014.5 Iraq gas production by region in the Central Scenario and the High Case 441

Tables for Chapter 15: Iraq: fuelling future reconstruction and growth 15.1 Iraq primary energy demand by fuel and scenario 45115.2 Capital costs, efficiency, and construction times for the main types

of new generation technologies in Iraq 45815.3 Iraq key domestic energy indicators by scenario 473

Tables for Chapter 16: Implications of Iraq’s energy development 16.1 Key energy export, revenue and investment indicators from the projections

for Iraq 484




Tables for Chapter 17: Water for energy 17.1 Key uses of water for energy and potential water quality impacts 50517.2 Power plant cooling system trade-offs 50917.3 Examples of water impacts on energy production 51317.4 Global water use for energy production in the New Policies Scenario

by region 515

Tables for Chapter 18: Measuring progress towards energy for all 18.1 People without access to modern energy services by region, 2010 53218.2 Number of people without access to electricity by region in the New Policies

Scenario 53518.3 Number of people without clean cooking facilities by region in the New

Policies Scenario 538

List of boxes


Boxes for Chapter 2: Energy trends to 2035 2.1 How have the New Policies Scenario projections changed since WEO-2011? 67

Boxes for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook 3.1 The economic implications of runaway oil-demand growth in Saudi Arabia 863.2 Cars everywhere, but where will they go? 903.3 The rise and rise of light tight oil 1083.4 Arctic waters: the final frontier? 1103.5 Brazil’s oil boom gathers pace 1123.6 Global oil refining faces a major shake-out 122

Boxes for Chapter 4: Natural gas market outlook 4.1 Gas pricing reform in China 1314.2 USGS conventional oil and gas resource assessment updated 1354.3 New finds boost hopes for gas production in East Africa 1404.4 The economics of producing shale gas at $2/MBtu 143

Boxes for Chapter 5: Coal market outlook 5.1 Boom in global coal use continues apace 1585.2 South Africa or southern Africa? 167

Boxes for Chapter 6: Power sector outlook 6.1 Electric vehicles and smart grids 1936.2 Implications of growing renewables shares for power market design 205

Table of Contents

Boxes for Chapter 7: Renewable energy outlook 7.1 Improvements to the World Energy Model: the bioenergy supply and trade

module 2237.2 Hydropower prospects in Africa 2267.3 Indirect land-use change and the European Union’s biofuels policy 240

Boxes for Chapter 8: Climate change mitigation and the 450 Scenario 8.1 Extreme weather events and the energy sector 2488.2 The relationship between the 450 and Efficient World Scenarios 264


Boxes for Chapter 9: Energy efficiency: the current state of play 9.1 What are we including when measuring energy efficiency? 2709.2 Lessons from Japan’s energy-saving “Setsuden” campaign 2789.3 The importance of effective implementation 2799.4 Decomposing the role of energy efficiency in curbing energy demand 2839.5 How much money is currently flowing into energy efficiency? 295

Boxes for Chapter 10: A blueprint for an energy-efficient world 10.1 Assessing the impact of the Efficient World Scenario on global economic

growth 31410.2 How large is the rebound effect? 316

Boxes for Chapter 11: Unlocking energy efficiency at the sectoral level 11.1 Determining the cost-effective efficiency potential of appliances

in the Efficient World Scenario 33711.2 Types of energy efficiency improvements in industry 33911.3 Modal shift and behavioural change in transport energy efficiency 34811.4 The value of smart grids 35311.5 The potential of combined heat and power 354


Boxes for Chapter 13: Iraq today: energy and the economy 13.1 Breaking through the historical ceiling on Iraq’s oil supply 39113.2 Technical service contracts and production-sharing contracts 40613.3 Iraq energy data 41113.4 Overview of the Iraq Central Scenario and cases 41413.5 Strategic thinking for Iraq’s energy sector 416

Boxes for Chapter 14: Iraq oil and gas resources and supply potential 14.1 Outlook for oil production in the KRG area 43014.2 The Strategic Pipeline 43614.3 Basrah Gas Company 443



Boxes for Chapter 15: Iraq: fuelling future reconstruction and growth 15.1 Iraq near-term surge in power provision 45715.2 The role of renewables in Iraq 46015.3 Reforming the power sector 464

Boxes for Chapter 16: Implications of Iraq’s energy development 16.1 Gaining local benefits from Iraq’s energy investment boom 48316.2 Crude quality and marketing options 488


Boxes for Chapter 17: Water for energy 17.1 Energy for water 50417.2 Water requirements for concentrating solar power 511

Boxes for Chapter 18: Measuring progress towards energy for all 18.1 Brazil’s Luz Para Todos (“Light for All”) programme 53618.2 Areas for potential further development of the EDI 54318.3 Africa: resource rich but modern energy poor 546

List of spotlights

Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS What is the biggest source of uncertainty for energy prospects? 38Are we on track to achieve the targets in the UN Sustainable Energy for All initiative? 59Are we finding enough crude oil to sustain production? 105Where will cheap American gas end up? 129Beyond the solar PV bubble 229What is the role of rare earths in climate change mitigation? 251

Part B: FOCUS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY Do energy efficiency measures “undermine” carbon markets? 292Will improved energy efficiency be good for the oil-exporting countries? 311

Part C: IRAQ ENERGY OUTLOOK What is the potential cost of maintaining fossil-fuel subsidies in Iraq? 465Why invest in spare oil production capacity? 491

Part D: SPECIAL TOPICS What is the potential impact of new energy access commitments? 531

© OECD/IEA, 2012

Documents

PART A L GLOBAL 4 ENERGY E TRENDS COAL … fuelling future reconstruction and growth 449 Overview of energy demand trends 450 Outlook for the power sector in the Central Scenario 454