Parfit, Why Anything

8/12/2019 Parfit, Why Anything

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Vol. 20 No. 2 22 January 1998

pages 24-27 | 5728 words

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Wy any!"ng# Wy !"s#

$ere% &ar'"!

Wy does !e (n")erse e*"s!# +ere are !wo ,ues!"ons ere. "rs! wy "s !ere a (n")erse a! all#

/! m"g! a)e een !rue !a! no!"ng e)er e*"s!ed no l")"ng e"ngs no s!ars no a!oms no! e)en

spae or !"me. Wen we !"n% aou! !"s poss""l"!y "! an seem as!on"s"ng !a! any!"ng e*"s!s.

3eond wy does this(n")erse e*"s!# +"ngs m"g! a)e een "n oun!less ways d"''eren!. 3o

wy "s !e (n")erse as "! "s#

+ese ,ues!"ons some el"e)e may a)e ausal answers. 3uppose '"rs! !a! !e (n")erse as

always e*"s!ed. 3ome el"e)e !a! "' all e)en!s were aused y earl"er e)en!s e)ery!"ng would

e e*pla"ned. +a! owe)er "s no! so. )en an "n'"n"!e ser"es o' e)en!s anno! e*pla"n "!sel'. Weould as% wy !"s ser"es ourred ra!er !an some o!er ser"es or no ser"es. ' !e suppor!ers

o' !e 3!eady 3!a!e +eory some welomed wa! !ey !oo% !o e !"s !eory6s a!e"s!"

"mpl"a!"ons. +ey assumed !a! "' !e (n")erse ad no eg"nn"ng !ere would e no!"ng 'or a

rea!or !o e*pla"n. u! !ere would s!"ll e an e!ernal (n")erse !o e*pla"n.

3uppose ne*! !a! !e (n")erse "s no! e!ernal s"ne no!"ng preeded !e "g ang. +a! '"rs!

e)en! some pys""s!s sugges! may a)e oeyed !e laws o' ,uan!um mean"s y e"ng a

random 'lu!ua!"on "n a )auum. +"s would ausally e*pla"n !ey say ow !e (n")erse ame

"n!o e*"s!ene ou! o' no!"ng. u! wa! pys""s!s all a )auum "sn6! really no!"ng. We an as%

wy "! e*"s!s and as !e po!en!"al"!"es "! does. /n aw%"ng6s prase :Wa! rea!es '"re "n!o !e

e,ua!"ons#6

3"m"lar remar%s apply !o all sugges!"ons o' !ese %"nds. +ere ould no! e a ausal e*plana!"on

o' wy !e (n")erse e*"s!s wy !ere are any laws o' na!ure or wy !ese laws are as !ey are.

Nor would "! ma%e a d"''erene "' !ere "s a ;od wo aused !e res! o' !e (n")erse !o e*"s!.

+ere ould no! e a ausal e*plana!"on o' wy ;od e*"s!s.


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ne apparen! 'a! aou! real"!y as reen!ly een mu d"sussed. ord"ng !o !"s )"ew !"s

pa!!ern o' s!ars would no! need !o e e*pla"ned. +a! "s learly 'alse.

ere "s ano!er analogy. 3uppose '"rs! !a! o' a !ousand people 'a"ng dea! only one an e

resued. /' !ere "s a lo!!ery !o p"% !"s one sur)")or and / w"n / would e )ery lu%y. u! !ere

m"g! e no!"ng ere !a! needed !o e e*pla"ned. 3omeone ad !o w"n and wy no! me#ons"der ne*! ano!er lo!!ery. (nless my gaoler p"%s !e longes! o' a !ousand s!raws / sall e

so!. /' my gaoler p"%s !a! s!raw !ere would e some!"ng !o e e*pla"ned. /! would no! e

enoug !o say :+"s resul! was as l"%ely as any o!er.6 /n !e '"rs! lo!!ery no!"ng spe"al

appened wa!e)er !e resul! someone6s l"'e would e sa)ed. /n !"s seond lo!!ery !e resul!

wasspe"al s"ne o' !e !ousand poss"le resul!s only one would sa)e a l"'e. Wy was !"s

spe"al resul! alsowa! appened# +oug !"s m"g! e a o"n"dene !e ane o' !a! "s

only one "n a !ousand. / ould e almos! er!a"n !a! l"%e $os!oe)s%y6s mo% e*eu!"on !"s

lo!!ery was r"gged.
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+e "g ang "! seems was l"%e !"s seond lo!!ery. or l"'e !o e poss"le !e "n"!"al ond"!"ons

ad !o e sele!ed w"! grea! auray. +"s appearance of fine-tuning as some all "! also

needs !o e e*pla"ned.

/! may e oCe!ed !a! "n regard"ng ond"!"ons as spe"al "' !ey allow 'or l"'e we unCus!"'"aly

assume our own "mpor!ane. u! l"'e "s spe"al "' only eause o' "!s omple*"!y. >n

ear!worm6s ra"n "s more ompl"a!ed !an a l"'eless gala*y. Nor "s "! only l"'e !a! re,u"res !"s

'"ne-!un"ng. /' !e "g ang6s "n"!"al ond"!"ons ad no! een almos! pre"sely as !ey were !e

(n")erse would a)e e"!er almos! "ns!an!ly reollapsed or e*panded so 'as! and w"! par!"les

so !"nly spread !a! no! e)en s!ars or ea)y elemen!s ould a)e 'ormed. +a! "s enoug !o

ma%e !ese ond"!"ons )ery spe"al.

/! may ne*! e oCe!ed !a! !ese ond"!"ons anno! e la"med !o e "mproale s"ne su a

la"m re,u"res a s!a!"s!"al as"s and !ere "s only one (n")erse. /' we were ons"der"ng all

one")ale (n")erses "! would "ndeed e "mplaus"le !o ma%e Cudgmen!s o' s!a!"s!"al

proa"l"!y. u! our ,ues!"on "s mu narrower. We are as%"ng wa! would a)e appened "'

w"! !e same laws o' na!ure !e "n"!"al ond"!"ons ad een d"''eren!. +a! pro)"des !e as"s

'or a s!a!"s!"al Cudgmen!. +ere "s a range o' )alues !a! !ese ond"!"ons m"g! a)e ad and

pys""s!s an wor% ou! "n wa! propor!"on o' !"s range !e resul!"ng (n")erse ould a)e

on!a"ned s!ars ea)y elemen!s and l"'e.

+"s propor!"on "! "s la"med "s e*!remely small. ' !e range o' poss"le "n"!"al ond"!"ons

'ewer !an one "n a "ll"on "ll"on would a)e produed a (n")erse w"! !e omple*"!y !a!

allows 'or l"'e. /' !"s la"m "s !rue as / sall ere assume !ere "s some!"ng !a! r"es ou! !o e

e*pla"ned. Wy was one o' !"s !"ny se! also !e one !a! a!ually o!a"ned#n one )"ew !"s was a mere o"n"dene. +a! "s one")ale s"ne o"n"denes appen. u!

!"s )"ew "s ard !o el"e)e s"ne "' "! were !rue !e ane o' !"s o"n"dene ourr"ng would

e elow one "n a "ll"on "ll"on.

!ers say :+e "g ang was'"ne-!uned. /n rea!"ng !e (n")erse ;od ose !o ma%e l"'e

poss"le.6 >!e"s!s may reCe! !"s answer !"n%"ng "! "mproale !a! ;od e*"s!s. u! !"s

proa"l"!y anno! e as low as one "n a "ll"on "ll"on. 3o e)en a!e"s!s sould adm"! !a! o'

!ese !wo answers !o our ,ues!"on !e one !a! "n)o%es ;od "s more l"%ely !o e !rue.

+"s reason"ng re)")es one o' !e !rad"!"onal argumen!s 'or el"e' "n ;od. /n "!s s!ronges! 'orm

!"s argumen! appealed !o !e many 'ea!ures o' an"mals su as eyes or w"ngs !a! loo% as "'

!ey a)e een des"gned. &aley6s appeal !o su 'ea!ures mu "mpressed $arw"n wen e was

young. $arw"n la!er underm"ned !"s 'orm o' !e argumen! s"ne e)olu!"on an e*pla"n !"s

appearane o' des"gn. u! e)olu!"on anno! e*pla"n !e appearane o' '"ne-!un"ng "n !e "g

ang.

+"s argumen!6s appeal !o proa"l"!"es an e allenged "n a d"''eren! way. /n la"m"ng "! !o e

mos! "mproale !a! !"s '"ne-!un"ng was a o"n"dene !e argumen! assumes !a! o' !e

poss"le "n"!"al ond"!"ons "n !e "g ang ea was e,ually l"%ely !o o!a"n. +a! assump!"on

may e m"s!a%en. +e ond"!"ons !a! allow 'or omple*"!y and l"'e may a)e een omparedw"! all !e o!ers mu more l"%ely !o o!a"n. &eraps !ey were e)en er!a"n !o o!a"n.


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+o answer !"s oCe!"on we mus! roaden !"s argumen!6s onlus"on. /' !ese l"'e-allow"ng

ond"!"ons were e"!er )ery l"%ely or er!a"n !o o!a"n !en D as !e argumen! la"ms D "! would

e no o"n"dene !a! !e (n")erse allows 'or omple*"!y and l"'e. u! !"s '"ne-!un"ng m"g!

a)e een !e wor% no! o' some e*"s!"ng e"ng u! o' some "mpersonal 'ore or 'undamen!al

law. +a! "s wa! some !e"s!s el"e)e ;od !o e.

> s!ronger allenge !o !"s argumen! omes 'rom a d"''eren! way o' e*pla"n"ng !e appearane

o' '"ne-!un"ng. ons"der '"rs! a s"m"lar ,ues!"on. or l"'e !o e poss"le on ar! many o' ar!6s

'ea!ures a)e !o e lose !o e"ng as !ey are. +e ar!6s a)"ng su 'ea!ures "! m"g! e

la"med "s unl"%ely !o e a o"n"dene and sould !ere'ore e regarded as ;od6s wor%. u!

su an argumen! would e wea%. +e (n")erse we an reasonaly el"e)e on!a"ns many

plane!s w"! )ary"ng ond"!"ons. We sould e*pe! !a! on a 'ew o' !ese plane!s ond"!"ons

would e Cus! r"g! 'or l"'e. Nor "s "! surpr"s"ng !a! we l")e on one o' !ese 'ew.

+"ngs are d"''eren! we may assume w"! !e appearane o' '"ne-!un"ng "n !e "g ang. W"le

!ere are l"%ely !o e many o!er plane!s !ere "s only one (n")erse. u! !"s d"''erene may e

less !an "! seems. 3ome pys""s!s sugges! !a! !e oser)ale (n")erse "s only one ou! o' many

d"''eren! worlds w" are all e,ually par!s o' real"!y. >ord"ng !o one su )"ew !e o!er

worlds are rela!ed !o ours "n a way !a! sol)es some o' !e mys!er"es o' ,uan!um pys"s. n !e

d"''eren! and s"mpler )"ew !a! "s rele)an! ere !e o!er worlds a)e !e same 'undamen!al

laws o' na!ure as our world and !ey are produed y "g angs !a! are roadly s"m"lar e*ep!

"n a)"ng d"''eren! "n"!"al ond"!"ons.

n !"sMany Worlds Hypothesis !ere "s no need 'or '"ne-!un"ng. /' !ere were enoug "g

angs we sould e*pe! !a! "n a 'ew o' !em ond"!"ons would e Cus! r"g! !o allow 'oromple*"!y and l"'e= and "! would e no surpr"se !a! our "g ang was one o' !ese 'ew. +o

"llus!ra!e !"s po"n! we an re)"se my seond lo!!ery. 3uppose my gaoler p"%s a s!raw no! one

u! many !"mes. +a! would e*pla"n "s manag"ng one !o p"% !e longes! s!raw w"!ou! !a!6s

e"ng an e*!reme o"n"dene or !"s lo!!ery6s e"ng r"gged.

n mos! )ers"ons o' !e


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so !ere are many poss"le worlds !a! would a)e on!a"ned l"'e. /! "s ard !o unders!and wy

ou! o' all !ese poss""l"!"es ;od ose !o rea!e our world. Wa! "s mos! a''l"ng "s !e prolem

o' e)"l. +ere appears !o e su''er"ng w" any good person %now"ng !e !ru! would a)e

pre)en!ed "' e ould. /' !ere "s su su''er"ng !ere anno! e a ;od wo "s omn"po!en!

omn"s"en! and wolly good.

+o !"s prolem !e"s!s a)e proposed se)eral solu!"ons. 3ome sugges! !a! ;od "s no!

omn"po!en! or no! wolly good. !ers sugges! !a! undeser)ed su''er"ng "s no! as "! seems

ad or !a! ;od ould no! pre)en! su su''er"ng w"!ou! ma%"ng !e (n")erse as a wole less

good.

We mus! "gnore !ese sugges!"ons ere s"ne we a)e larger ,ues!"ons !o ons"der. / egan y

as%"ng wy !"ngs are as !ey are. e'ore re!urn"ng !o !a! ,ues!"on we sould as% how!"ngs

are. +ere "s mu aou! our world !a! we a)e no! d"so)ered. >nd Cus! as !ere may e o!er

worlds !a! are l"%e ours !ere may e worlds !a! are )ery d"''eren!.

/! w"ll elp !o d"s!"ngu"s !wo %"nds o' poss""l"!y. Cosmicposs""l"!"es o)er e)ery!"ng !a! e)er

e*"s!s and are !e d"''eren! ways !a! !e wole o' real"!y m"g! e. nly one su poss""l"!y

an e a!ual or !e one !a! o!a"ns.Localposs""l"!"es are !e d"''eren! ways !a! some par! o'

real"!y or loal world m"g! e. /' some loal world e*"s!s !a! lea)es "! open we!er o!er

worlds e*"s!.

ne osm" poss""l"!y "s rougly !a! e)ery poss"le loal world e*"s!s. +"s we an all !eAll

Worlds Hypothesis. >no!er poss""l"!y w" m"g! a)e o!a"ned "s !a! no!"ng e)er e*"s!s.

+"s we an all !eNull Possibility. /n ea o' !e rema"n"ng poss""l"!"es !e numer o' worlds

!a! e*"s! "s e!ween none and all. +ere are oun!less o' !ese poss""l"!"es s"ne !ere areoun!less om"na!"ons o' par!"ular poss"le loal worlds.

' !ese d"''eren! osm" poss""l"!"es one mus! o!a"n and only one an o!a"n. 3o we a)e !wo

,ues!"ons w" o!a"ns and wy# +ese ,ues!"ons are onne!ed. /' some poss""l"!y would e

eas"er !o e*pla"n we a)e more reason !o el"e)e !a! !"s poss""l"!y o!a"ns. +"s "s ow ra!er

!an el"e)"ng "n only one "g ang we a)e more reason !o el"e)e "n many. We!er we

el"e)e "n one or many we a)e !e ,ues!"on wy any "g ang as ourred. +oug !"s

,ues!"on "s ard !e ourrene o' many "g angs "s no! more puEEl"ng !an !e ourrene o'

only one.


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ons"der '"rs! !e Null &oss""l"!y "n w" no!"ng e)er e*"s!s. +o "mag"ne !"s poss""l"!y "!

may elp !o suppose '"rs! !a! all !a! e)er e*"s!ed was a s"ngle a!om. We !en "mag"ne !a! e)en

!"s a!om ne)er e*"s!ed.

3ome a)e la"med !a! "' !ere ad ne)er een any!"ng !ere wouldn6! a)e een any!"ng !o

e e*pla"ned. u! !a! "s no! so. Wen we "mag"ne ow !"ngs would a)e een "' no!"ng ad

e)er e*"s!ed wa! we sould "mag"ne away are su !"ngs as l")"ng e"ngs s!ars and a!oms.

+ere would s!"ll a)e een )ar"ous !ru!s su as !e !ru! !a! !ere were no s!ars or a!oms

or !a! 9 "s d")"s"le y F. We an as% wy !ese !"ngs would a)e een !rue. >nd su

,ues!"ons may a)e answers. +us we an e*pla"n wy e)en "' no!"ng ad e)er e*"s!ed 9 would

s!"ll a)e een d")"s"le y F. +ere "s no one")ale al!erna!")e. >nd we an e*pla"n wy !ere

would a)e een no su !"ngs as "mma!er"al ma!!er or sper"al ues. 3u !"ngs are

log"ally "mposs"le. u! wy would nothinga)e e*"s!ed# Wy would !ere a)e een no s!ars

or a!oms no p"losopers or lueell woods#

We sould no! la"m !a! "' no!"ng ad e)er e*"s!ed !ere would a)e een no!"ng !o e

e*pla"ned. u! we an la"m some!"ng less. ' all !e gloal poss""l"!"es !e Null &oss""l"!y

would a)e needed !e leas! e*plana!"on. >s Ge"n"E po"n!ed ou! "! "s mu !e s"mples! and

!e leas! ar"!rary. >nd "! "s !e eas"es! !o unders!and. /! an seem mys!er"ous 'or e*ample ow

!"ngs ould e*"s! w"!ou! !e"r e*"s!ene a)"ng some ause u! !ere anno! e a ausal

e*plana!"on o' wy !e wole (n")erse or ;od e*"s!s. +e Null &oss""l"!y ra"ses no su

prolem. /' no!"ng ad e)er e*"s!ed !a! s!a!e o' a''a"rs would no! a)e needed !o e aused.

Heal"!y owe)er does no! !a%e "!s leas! puEEl"ng 'orm. /n some way or o!er a (n")erse as

managed !o e*"s!. +a! "s wa! an !a%e one6s rea! away. >s W"!!gens!e"n wro!e :no! ow !e

world "s "s !e mys!"al u! that"! "s.6 r "n !e words o' a !"n%er as unmys!"al as Ja% 3mar!

:+a! any!"ng sould e*"s! a! all does seem !o me a ma!!er 'or !e deepes! awe.6

ons"der ne*! !e >ll Worlds ypo!es"s "n w" e)ery poss"le loal world e*"s!s. (nl"%e !e

Null &oss""l"!y !"s may e ow !"ngs are. >nd "! may e !e ne*! leas! puEEl"ng poss""l"!y.

+"s ypo!es"s "s no! !e same as D !oug "! "nludes D !e ll Worlds ypo!es"s may lea)e less !a! "s une*pla"ned. or e*ample

wa!e)er !e numer o' poss"le worlds !a! e*"s! we a)e !e ,ues!"on :Wy !a! numer#6

+"s ,ues!"on would a)e een leas! puEEl"ng "' !e numer !a! e*"s!ed were none and !e ne*!

leas! ar"!rary poss""l"!y seems !o e !a! all!ese worlds e*"s!. W"! e)ery o!er osm"

poss""l"!y we a)e a 'ur!er ,ues!"on. /' ours "s !e only world we an as% :u! o' all !e

poss"le worlds wy "s !"s !e one !a! e*"s!s#6 n any )ers"on o' !e


7/21

/! may e oCe!ed !a! e)en "' all poss"le loal worlds e*"s! !a! does no! e*pla"n wy our

world "s as "! "s. u! !a! "s a m"s!a%e. /' all !ese worlds e*"s! ea world "s as "! "s "n !e way "n

w" ea numer "s as "! "s. We anno! sens"ly as% wy 9 "s 9. Nor sould we as% wy our

world "s !e one "! "s wy "! "s thisworld. +a! would e l"%e as%"ng :Wy are we wo we are#6

or :Wy "s "! now !e !"me !a! "! "s#6 +ose are no! good ,ues!"ons.

+oug !e >ll Worlds ypo!es"s a)o"ds er!a"n ,ues!"ons "! "s no! as s"mple or un-ar"!rary

as !e Null &oss""l"!y. +ere may e no sarp d"s!"n!"on e!ween worlds !a! are and are no!

poss"le. /! "s unlear wa! oun!s as a %"nd o' world. >nd "' !ere are "n'"n"!ely many %"nds

!ere "s a o"e e!ween d"''eren! %"nds o' "n'"n"!y.

W"e)er osm" poss""l"!y o!a"ns we an as% wy "! o!a"ns. >ll !a! / a)e la"med so 'ar "s

!a! w"! some poss""l"!"es !"s ,ues!"on would e less puEEl"ng. Ge! us now as% ould !"s

,ues!"on a)e an answer# *"ar" V"ew and "ns"s! !a!

;od6s e*"s!ene "s a ru!e 'a! w"! no e*plana!"on.

/n "!s s"mples! 'orm !"s )"ew ma%es !ree la"ms :I1 /! would e es! "' real"!y were a er!a"n

way. I2 Heal"!y "s !a! way. IF I1 e*pla"ns I2.6 I1 "s an ord"nary e)alua!")e la"m l"%e !e

la"m !a! "! would e e!!er "' !ere was less su''er"ng. +e >*"ar" V"ew assumes / el"e)e

r"g!ly !a! su la"ms an e "n a s!rong sense !rue. I2 "s an ord"nary emp"r"al or s"en!"'"

la"m !oug o' a sweep"ng %"nd. Wa! "s d"s!"n!")e "n !"s )"ew "s la"m IF aord"ng !o w"

I1 e*pla"ns I2.

an we unders!and !"s !"rd la"m# +o 'ous on !"s ,ues!"on we sould r"e'ly "gnore !e

world6s e)"ls and suspend our o!er dou!s aou! la"ms I1 and I2. We sould suppose !a! as

Ge"n"E la"med !e es! poss"le (n")erse e*"s!s. Would "! !en ma%e sense !o la"m !a! !"s(n")erse e*"s!s because"! "s !e es!#


8/21

+a! use o' :eause6 >*"ar"s!s sould adm"! anno! e eas"ly e*pla"ned. u! e)en ord"nary

ausa!"on "s mys!er"ous. >! !e mos! 'undamen!al le)el we a)e no "dea wy some e)en!s ause

o!ers= and "! "s ard !o e*pla"n wa! ausa!"on "s. +ere are moreo)er non-ausal senses o'

:eause6 and :wy6 as "n !e la"m !a! ;od e*"s!s eause "s e*"s!ene "s log"ally neessary.

We an unders!and !a! la"m e)en "' we !"n% "! 'alse. +e >*"ar" V"ew "s arder !o

unders!and. u! !a! "s no! surpr"s"ng. /' !ere "s some e*plana!"on o' !e wole o' real"!y we

sould no! e*pe! !"s e*plana!"on !o '"! nea!ly "n!o some 'am"l"ar a!egory. +"s e*!ra-ord"nary

,ues!"on may a)e an e*!ra-ord"nary answer. We sould reCe! sugges!ed answers w" ma%e

no sense= u! we sould also !ry !o see wa! m"g! ma%e sense.

>*"ary m"g! e e*pressed as 'ollows. We are now suppos"ng !a! o' all !e oun!less ways

!a! !e wole o' real"!y m"g! e one "s o! !e )ery es! and "s !e way !a! real"!y "s. n !e

>*"ar" V"ew that is no coincidence. +"s la"m / el"e)e ma%es sense. >nd "' "! were no

o"n"dene !a! !e es! way 'or real"!y !o e "s also !e way !a! real"!y "s !a! m"g! suppor!

!e 'ur!er la"m !a! !"s was wy real"!y was !"s way.

+"s )"ew as one ad)an!age o)er !e more 'am"l"ar !e"s!" )"ew. >n appeal !o ;od anno!

e*pla"n wy !e (n")erse e*"s!s s"ne ;od would "msel' e par! o' !e (n")erse or one o' !e

!"ngs !a! e*"s!. 3ome !e"s!s argue !a! s"ne no!"ng an e*"s! w"!ou! a ause ;od wo "s

!e "rs! ause mus! e*"s!. >s 3openauer oCe!ed !"s argumen!6s prem"se "s no! l"%e some

adr")er wom !e"s!s are 'ree !o d"sm"ss one !ey a)e reaed !e"r des!"na!"on. +e

>*"ar" V"ew appeals no! !o an e*"s!"ng en!"!y u! !o an e*plana!ory law. 3"ne su a law

would no! "!sel' e par! o' !e (n")erse "! m"g! e*pla"n wy !e (n")erse e*"s!s and "s as good

as "! ould e. /' su a law go)erned real"!y we ould s!"ll as% wy "! d"d or wy !e >*"ar"

V"ew was !rue. u! "n d"so)er"ng !"s law we would a)e made some progress.

/! "s ard owe)er !o el"e)e !e >*"ar" V"ew. /' as "! seems !ere "s mu po"n!less

su''er"ng our world anno! e par! o' !e es! poss"le (n")erse.

3ome >*"ar"s!s la"m !a! "' we reCe! !e"r )"ew we mus! regard our world6s e*"s!ene as a

ru!e 'a! s"ne no o!er e*plana!"on ould ma%e sense. u! !a! / el"e)e "s no! so. /' we

as!ra! 'rom !e op!"m"sm o' !e >*"ar" V"ew "!s la"ms are !ese :' !e oun!less osm"

poss""l"!"es one o! as a )ery spe"al 'ea!ure and "s !e poss""l"!y !a! o!a"ns. +a! "s no

o"n"dene. +"s poss""l"!y o!a"ns eause "! as !"s 'ea!ure.6 !er )"ews an ma%e su

la"ms. +"s spe"al 'ea!ure need no! e !a! o' e"ng es!. +us on !e >ll Worlds ypo!es"s

real"!y "s ma*"mal or as 'ull as "! ould e. 3"m"larly "' no!"ng ad e)er e*"s!ed real"!y would

a)e een m"n"mal or as emp!y as "! ould e. /' !e poss""l"!y !a! o!a"ned were e"!er

ma*"mal or m"n"mal !a! 'a! we m"g! la"m would e mos! unl"%ely !o e a o"n"dene. >nd

!a! m"g! suppor! !e 'ur!er la"m !a! !"s poss""l"!y6s a)"ng !"s 'ea!ure would e wy "!

o!a"ned.

Ge! us now loo% more losely a! !a! las! s!ep. Wen "! "s no o"n"dene !a! !wo !"ngs are o!

!rue !ere "s some!"ng !a! e*pla"ns wy g")en !e !ru! o' one !e o!er "s also !rue. +e

!ru! o' e"!er m"g! ma%e !e o!er !rue. r o! m"g! e e*pla"ned y some !"rd !ru! as

wen !wo 'a!s are !e Co"n! e''e!s o' a ommon ause.


9/21

3uppose ne*! !a! o' !e osm" poss""l"!"es one "s o! )ery spe"al and "s !e one !a!

o!a"ns. /' !a! "s no o"n"dene wa! m"g! e*pla"n wy !ese !"ngs are o! !rue# n !e

reason"ng !a! we are now ons"der"ng !e '"rs! !ru! e*pla"ns !e seond s"ne !"s poss""l"!y

o!a"ns eause "! as !"s spe"al 'ea!ure. ;")en !e %"nd o' !ru!s !ese are su an

e*plana!"on ould no! go !e o!er way. +"s poss""l"!y ould no! a)e !"s 'ea!ure eause "!

o!a"ns. /' some poss""l"!y as some 'ea!ure "! ould no! 'a"l !o a)e !"s 'ea!ure so "! would

a)e !"s 'ea!ure we!er or no! "! o!a"ns. +e >ll Worlds ypo!es"s 'or e*ample ould no!

'a"l !o desr"e !e 'ulles! way 'or real"!y !o e.

W"le "! "s neessary !a! our "mag"ned poss""l"!y as "!s spe"al 'ea!ure "! "s no! neessary !a!

!"s poss""l"!y o!a"ns. +"s d"''erene / el"e)e Cus!"'"es !e reason"ng !a! we are now

ons"der"ng. 3"ne !"s poss""l"!y mus! a)e !"s 'ea!ure u! m"g! no! a)e o!a"ned "! anno!

a)e !"s 'ea!ure eause "! o!a"ns nor ould some !"rd !ru! e*pla"n wy "! o! as !"s

'ea!ure and o!a"ns. 3o "' !ese 'a!s are no o"n"dene !"s poss""l"!y mus! o!a"n because"!

as !"s 'ea!ure.

Wen some poss""l"!y o!a"ns eause "! as some 'ea!ure "!s a)"ng !"s 'ea!ure may e wy

some agen! or proess o' na!ural sele!"on made "! o!a"n. +ese we an all !e intentionaland

e!olutionaryways "n w" some 'ea!ure o' some poss""l"!y may e*pla"n wy "! o!a"ns.

ur world !e"s!s la"m an e e*pla"ned "n !e '"rs! o' !ese ways. /' real"!y were as good as "!

ould e "! would "ndeed ma%e sense !o la"m !a! !"s was par!ly ;od6s wor%. u! s"ne ;od6s

own e*"s!ene ould no! e ;od6s wor% !ere ould e no "n!en!"onal e*plana!"on o' wy !e

wole o' real"!y was as good as "! ould e. 3o we ould reasonaly onlude !a! !"s way6s e"ng

!e es! e*pla"ned d"re!ly wy real"!y was !"s way. )en "' ;od e*"s!s !e "n!en!"onale*plana!"on ould no! ompe!e w"! !e d"''eren! and older e*plana!"on o''ered y !e

>*"ar" V"ew.

He!urn now !o o!er e*plana!"ons o' !"s %"nd. ons"der '"rs! !e Null &oss""l"!y. +"s we %now

does no! o!a"n= u! s"ne we are as%"ng wa! ma%es sense !a! does no! ma!!er. /' !ere ad

ne)er een any!"ng would !a! a)e ad !o e a ru!e 'a! w" ad no e*plana!"on# +e

answer / sugges! "s No. /! m"g! a)e een no o"n"dene !a! o' all !e oun!less osm"

poss""l"!"es wa! o!a"ned was !e s"mples! and leas! ar"!rary and !e only poss""l"!y "n

w" no!"ng e)er e*"s!s. >nd "' !ese 'a!s ad een no o"n"dene !"s poss""l"!y would

a)e o!a"ned eause D or par!ly eause D "! ad one or more o' !ese spe"al 'ea!ures. +"s

e*plana!"on moreo)er ould no! a)e !a%en an "n!en!"onal or e)olu!"onary 'orm. /' no!"ng ad

e)er e*"s!ed !ere ould no! a)e een some agen! or proess o' sele!"on wo or w" made

!"s poss""l"!y o!a"n. /!s e"ng !e s"mples! or leas! ar"!rary poss""l"!y would a)e een

d"re!ly wy "! o!a"ned.

ons"der ne*! !e >ll Worlds ypo!es"s w" may o!a"n. /' real"!y "s as 'ull as "! ould e "s

!a! a o"n"dene# $oes "! merely appen !o e !rue !a! o' all !e osm" poss""l"!"es !e one

!a! o!a"ns "s a! !"s e*!reme# >s e'ore !a! "s one")ale u! !"s o"n"dene would e !oo

grea! !o e red"le. We an reasonaly assume !a! "' !"s poss""l"!y o!a"ns !a! "s eause "!

"s ma*"mal or a! !"s e*!reme. n !"sMaximalist iew "! "s a 'undamen!al !ru! !a! e"ng


10/21

poss"le and par! o' !e 'ulles! way !a! real"!y ould e "s su''""en! 'or e"ng a!ual. +a! "s !e

"ges! law go)ern"ng real"!y. >s e'ore "' su a law go)erned real"!y we ould s!"ll as% wy "!

d"d. u! "n d"so)er"ng !"s law we would a)e made some progress.

ere "s ano!er spe"al 'ea!ure. &eraps real"!y "s !e way "! "s eause "!s 'undamen!al laws are

on some r"!er"on as ma!ema!"ally eau!"'ul as !ey ould e. +a! "s wa! some pys""s!s are

"nl"ned !o el"e)e.

>s !ese remar%s sugges! !ere "s no lear oundary ere e!ween p"losopy and s"ene. /'

!ere "s su a "ges! law go)ern"ng real"!y !"s law "s o' !e same %"nd as !ose !a! pys""s!s

are !ry"ng !o d"so)er. Wen we appeal !o na!ural laws !o e*pla"n some 'ea!ures o' real"!y su

as !e rela!"ons e!ween l"g! gra)"!y spae and !"me we are no! g")"ng ausal e*plana!"ons

s"ne we are no! la"m"ng !a! one par! o' real"!y aused ano!er par! !o e some way. Wa! su

laws e*pla"n or par!ly e*pla"n are !e deeper 'a!s aou! real"!y !a! ausal e*plana!"ons !a%e

'or gran!ed. /n !e seond al' o' !"s essay / sall as% ow deep su e*plana!"ons ould go.

?@A/ am ere merely summar"s"ng and o)ers"mpl"'y"ng wa! o!ers a)e la"med. 3ee 'or

e*ample Jon Gesl"e "ni!ersesI1989.

Vol. 20 No. 2 22 January 1998K $ere% &ar'"!KWy any!"ng# Wy !"s#

pages 24-27 | 5728 words

on!a! us'or r"g!s and "ssues "n,u"r"es.

Ge!!ers

Vol. 20 No. 4 19 eruary 1998

Wy does a l"!erary magaE"ne e*"s! a! all# /! m"g! a)e een !e ase !a! no magaE"ne e*"s!ed

no o)er no l"s! o' on!r"u!ors no on!en!s. We a)e !o go on and as% wy we a)e !e

magaE"ne we do a)e. ons"der !e Null &oss""l"!y. +ere ould a)e een a Cournal w"!

no!"ng "n "!. ons"der ne*! !e >ll Worlds ypo!es"s "n w" our per"od"al would on!a"n

e)ery poss"le %"nd o' ar!"le. 3omewere "n e!ween "s !e pul"a!"on we uy. &eraps !e

ru!e a! V"ew appl"es and we a)e !o pu! up w"! wa! we ge! e!ween !e o)ers and no! as%

,ues!"ons. n !e o!er and !ere may e a 3ele!or or a se! o' par!"al 3ele!ors w"

de!erm"nes wa! %"nd o' magaE"ne we e*per"ene. / am !ry"ng !o ge! round o' ourse !o as%"ng!e :3ele!ors6 wa! was go"ng on wen !ey de"ded !o pul"s $ere% &ar'"!6s !wo-par! ar!"le on

!e mean"ng o' !e un")erse IL#$ 22 January# +e world we l")e "n "s un'a"r enoug w"! !e

L#$appear"ng only 'or!n"g!ly and !a! !err"le gap a'!er r"s!mas !e deepes! ayss "n !e

year. +o surrender !wo and a al' pages "n ea o' !wo "ssues !o !"s me!"ulous u! ra!er

pon!"'"al p"losop"al analys"s "s enoug !o ma%e us ry ou! :Wy#6 !o !e ea)ens.

Leonard Pepper

*'ord



http://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n02/derek-parfit/why-anything-why-this#fn-ref-asteriskhttp://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n02/derek-parfit/why-anything-why-this#fn-ref-asteriskhttp://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n02/contentshttp://www.lrb.co.uk/contributors/derek-parfithttp://www.lrb.co.uk/contributors/derek-parfithttp://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n02/derek-parfit/why-anything-why-thishttp://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n02/derek-parfit/why-anything-why-thishttp://www.lrb.co.uk/contactshttp://www.lrb.co.uk/contactshttp://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n04/letters#letter5http://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n02/derek-parfit/why-anything-why-thishttp://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n02/derek-parfit/why-anything-why-thishttp://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n02/derek-parfit/why-anything-why-this#fn-ref-asteriskhttp://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n02/contentshttp://www.lrb.co.uk/contributors/derek-parfithttp://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n02/derek-parfit/why-anything-why-thishttp://www.lrb.co.uk/contactshttp://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n04/letters#letter5http://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n02/derek-parfit/why-anything-why-this


11/21





de!erm"nes wa! %"nd o' magaE"ne we e*per"ene. / am !ry"ng !o ge! round o' ourse !o as%"ng

!e :3ele!ors6 wa! was go"ng on wen !ey de"ded !o pul"s $ere% &ar'"!6s !wo-par! ar!"le on





Leonard Pepper

*'ord

ollow"ng on!emporary osmology $ere% &ar'"! wr"!es o' !e seer s!a!"s!"al unl"%el"ness o'

our e*"s!ene IL#$ 22 January :' !e range o' "n"!"al ond"!"ons 'ewer !an one "n a "ll"on

"ll"on would a)e produed a (n")erse w"! !e omple*"!y !a! allows 'or l"'e. /' !"s la"m "s

!rue as / sall ere assume !ere "s some!"ng !a! r"es ou! !o e e*pla"ned. Wy was one o'

!"s !"ny se! also !e one !a! a!ually o!a"ned#6 &ar'"! seems !o !"n% !a! !e proa"l"!y !a!

;od e*"s!s "s grea!er !an one "n a "ll"on "ll"on so !a! !e e*"s!ene o' ;od "s more l"%ely !o e

!rue !an !e a"den!al e*"s!ene o' a l"'e-suppor!"ng un")erse. u! "s s!"pula!"on !a! e6s

assuming!a! !e la"ms o' urren! osmology are !rue g")es !e game away. or e)en "' you

!"n% !a! !e odds !a! ;od e*"s!s are grea!er !an one "n a "ll"on "ll"on "!6s d"EEy"ngly more

proale !a! osmology as "! wrong. I>'!er all s"m"lar sor!s o' error are no! unpreeden!ed "n

!e "s!ory o' pys"s. /n 'a! &ar'"!6s argumen! oug! !o emarrass osmolog"s!s no! a!e"s!s.

+o paraprase &ar'"! osmolog"s!s may reCe! !"s answer !"n%"ng "! "mproale !a! !e"r

!eory "s wrong. u! !"s proa"l"!y anno! e as low as one "n a "ll"on "ll"on. 3o e)en

osmolog"s!s sould adm"! !a! o' !ese !wo answers !o our ,ues!"on !e one !a! "n)o%es

s"en!"'" error "s more l"%ely !o e !rue.

William Flesch

rande"s (n")ers"!y

Wal!am


12/21


13/21


14/21


15/21

'ea!ures e"ng wolly law-go)erned and a)"ng )ery s"mple laws. Ne"!er 'ea!ure seems !o e

re,u"red "n order 'or l"'e !o e poss"le. >nd among poss"le l"'e-on!a"n"ng worlds a 'ar grea!er

range would no! a)e !ese 'ea!ures. +us 'or ea law-go)erned world !ere are oun!less

)ar"an!s !a! would 'a"l "n d"''eren! ways !o e wolly law-go)erned. >nd ompared w"! s"mple

laws !ere "s a 'ar grea!er range o' ompl"a!ed laws. 3o on o! !e unsele!")e )"ews we

sould no! e*pe! our world !o a)e !ese 'ea!ures. /' "! as !em as pys""s!s m"g! d"so)er

!a! would g")e us reasons !o reCe! o! !e >ll Worlds ypo!es"s and !e ru!e a! V"ew. We

would a)e some reason !o el"e)e !a! !ere are a! leas! !wo par!"al 3ele!ors e"ng law-

go)erned and a)"ng s"mple laws.

+ere may e o!er 'ea!ures o' our world 'rom w" we an !ry !o "n'er wa! real"!y "s l"%e and

wy. u! oser)a!"on an !a%e us only par! o' !e way. /' we an ge! 'ur!er !a! w"ll a)e !o e

y pure reason"ng.

' !ose wo aep! !e ru!e a! V"ew many assume !a! "! mus! e !rue. >ord"ng !o !ese

people !oug real"!y merely appens !o e some way that"! merely appens !o e some way

does no! merely appen !o e !rue. +ere ould no! e an e*plana!"on o' wy real"!y "s !e way "!

"s s"ne !ere ould no! e a ausal e*plana!"on and no o!er e*plana!"on would ma%e sense.

+"s assump!"on / a)e argued "s m"s!a%en. Heal"!y m"g! e !e way "! "s eause !"s way "s

!e 'ulles! or !e mos! )ar"ed or oeys !e s"mples! or mos! elegan! laws or as some o!er

spe"al 'ea!ure. 3"ne !e ru!e a! V"ew "s no! !e only e*plana!ory poss""l"!y we sould no!

assume !a! "! mus! e !rue.

Wen suppor!ers o' !"s )"ew reogn"se !ese o!er poss""l"!"es !ey may sw"! !o !e o!er

e*!reme la"m"ng !a! !e"r )"ew6s !ru! "s ano!er ru!e 'a!. /' !a! were so no! only would!ere e no e*plana!"on o' real"!y6s e"ng as "! "s !ere would also e no e*plana!"on o' !ere

e"ng no su e*plana!"on. >s e'ore !oug !"s m"g! e !rue we sould no! assume !a! "!

mus! e !rue. /' some e*plana!ory poss""l"!y merely appens !o o!a"n !e one !a! o!a"ns may

no! e !e ru!e a! V"ew. /' "! "s randomly sele!ed whetherreal"!y "s randomly sele!ed and

!ere are o!er poss""l"!"es random sele!"on may no! e sele!ed.

+ere "s moreo)er ano!er way "n w" some e*plana!ory poss""l"!y may o!a"n. Ha!er !an

merely appen"ng !o o!a"n !"s poss""l"!y may a)e some 'ea!ure or se! o' 'ea!ures w"

e*pla"ns wy "! o!a"ns. 3u a 'ea!ure would e a 3ele!or a! a "ger le)el s"ne "! would apply

no! !o 'a!ual u! !o e*plana!ory poss""l"!"es. /! would de!erm"ne no! !a! real"!y e a er!a"n

way u! !a! "! e de!erm"ned "n a er!a"n way ow real"!y "s !o e.

/' !e ru!e a! V"ew "s !rue "! may a)e een sele!ed "n !"s way. ' !e e*plana!ory

poss""l"!"es !"s )"ew seems !o desr"e !e s"mples! s"ne "!s la"m "s only !a! real"!y as no

e*plana!"on. +"s poss""l"!y6s e"ng !e s"mples! m"g! ma%e "! !e one !a! o!a"ns. 3"mpl""!y

may e !e "ger 3ele!or de!erm"n"ng !a! !ere "s no 3ele!or e!ween !e ways !a! real"!y

m"g! e.

ne aga"n owe)er !oug !"s may e !rue we anno! assume "!s !ru!. +ere may e some

o!er "ger 3ele!or. 3ome e*plana!ory poss""l"!y may o!a"n 'or e*ample eause "! "s !eleas! ar"!rary or "s !e one !a! e*pla"ns mos!. +e ru!e a! V"ew as ne"!er o' !ose


16/21

'ea!ures. r !ere may e no "ger 3ele!or s"ne some e*plana!ory poss""l"!y may merely

appen !o o!a"n.

+ese al!erna!")es are !e d"''eren! poss""l"!"es a! ye! ano!er "ger e*plana!ory le)el. 3o we

a)e !e same !wo ,ues!"ons w" o!a"ns and wy#

We may now eome d"souraged. )ery answer "! may seem ra"ses a 'ur!er ,ues!"on. u! !a!

may no! e so. +ere may e some answer !a! "s a neessary !ru!. W"! !a! neess"!y our

sear would end.

3ome !ru! "s log"ally neessary wen "!s den"al leads !o a on!rad"!"on. /! anno! e "n !"s

sense neessary e"!er !a! real"!y "s a ru!e 'a! or !a! !ere "s some 3ele!or. o! !ese

la"ms an e den"ed w"!ou! on!rad"!"on.

+ere are also non-log"al neess"!"es. +e mos! 'am"l"ar ausal neess"!y anno! g")e us !e

!ru! we need. /! ould no! e ausally neessary !a! real"!y "s or "sn6! a ru!e 'a!. ausal

neess"!"es ome lower down. 3"m"lar remar%s apply !o !e neess"!"es "n)ol)ed "n !e essen!"alproper!"es o' par!"ular !"ngs or na!ural %"nds. ons"der ne*! !e me!apys"al neess"!y !a!

some wr"!ers la"m 'or ;od6s e*"s!ene. +a! la"m means !ey say !a! ;od6s e*"s!ene does

no! depend on any!"ng else and !a! no!"ng else ould ause ;od !o ease !o e*"s!. u! !ese

la"ms do no! "mply !a! ;od mus! e*"s! and !a! ma%es su neess"!y !oo wea% !o end our

,ues!"ons.

+ere are owe)er some %"nds o' neess"!y !a! would e s!rong enoug. ons"der !e !ru!s

!a! undeser)ed su''er"ng "s ad and !a! "' we el"e)e !e prem"ses o' a sound argumen! we

oug! ra!"onally !o el"e)e !"s argumen!6s onlus"on. +ese !ru!s are no! log"ally neessary

s"ne !e"r den"als would no! lead !o on!rad"!"ons. u! !ey ould no! a)e 'a"led !o e !rue.

(ndeser)ed su''er"ng does no! merely appen !o e ad.

Wen Jon Gesl"e de'ends !e >*"ar" V"ew e appeals !o !"s %"nd o' non-log"al neess"!y.

No! only does )alue rule real"!y Gesl"e sugges!s "! ould no! a)e 'a"led !o rule. u! !"s

sugges!"on "s ard !o el"e)e. W"le "! "s "none")ale !a! undeser)ed su''er"ng m"g! a)e

'a"led !o e "n "!sel' ad "! seems learly one")ale !a! )alue m"g! a)e 'a"led !o rule "' only

eause "! seems so lear !a! )alue does notrule.

He!urn now !o !e ru!e a! V"ew w" "s more l"%ely !o e !rue. /' !"s )"ew "s !rue ould "!s

!ru! e non-log"ally neessary# /s "! "none")ale !a! !ere m"g! e some 3ele!or or

"ges! law ma%"ng real"!y e some way# +e answer / a)e la"med "s No. )en "' real"!y "s a

ru!e 'a! "! m"g! no! a)e een. +us "' no!"ng ad e)er e*"s!ed !a! m"g! a)e een no

o"n"dene. Heal"!y m"g! a)e een !a! way eause o' !e osm" poss""l"!"es "! "s !e

s"mples! and leas! ar"!rary. >nd as / a)e also la"med Cus! as "! "s no! neessary !a! !e ru!e

a! V"ew "s !rue "! "s no! neessary !a! !"s )"ew6s !ru! e ano!er ru!e 'a!. +"s )"ew m"g!

e !rue eause "! "s !e s"mples! o' !e e*plana!ory poss""l"!"es.

We a)e no! ye! 'ound !e neess"!y we need. Heal"!y may appen !o e as "! "s or !ere may e

some 3ele!or. W"e)er o' !ese "s !rue "! may appen !o e !rue or !ere may e some "ger

3ele!or. +ese are !e d"''eren! poss""l"!"es a! !e ne*! e*plana!ory le)el so we are a% w"!our !wo ,ues!"ons w" o!a"ns and wy#


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ould !ese ,ues!"ons on!"nue 'or e)er# nd s"ne !"s 3ele!or would e !e "ges! no!"ng else

ould ma%e !a! !rue. 3o we may a)e 'ound !e neess"!y we need. /' !ere "s some "ges!

3ele!or !a! / sugges! mus! merely appen !o e !rue.

3uppor!ers o' !e ru!e a! V"ew may now 'eel )"nd"a!ed. a)e we no! "n !e end aep!ed

!e"r )"ew#

We a)e no!. >ord"ng !o !e ru!e a! V"ew real"!y merely appens !o e as "! "s. +a! / a)e

argued may no! e !rue s"ne !ere may e some 3ele!or w" e*pla"ns or par!ly e*pla"nsreal"!y6s e"ng as "! "s. +ere may also e some "ger 3ele!or w" e*pla"ns !ere e"ng !"s

3ele!or. nd s"ne !ere are 'ew e*plana!ory poss""l"!"es "! would no! eamaE"ng "' !e


18/21


19/21

3ele!ors. u! as / a)e also la"med "! may e a neessary !ru! !a! "! e a ru!e 'a! we!er

!ere are su 3ele!ors and "' so w" !e "ges! 3ele!or "s.

/' !a! "s a neessary !ru! s"m"lar remar%s apply. n !ese assump!"ons !ere would aga"n e

no!"ng !a! was deeply puEEl"ng. /' "! "s neessary !a! o' !ese e*plana!ory poss""l"!"es one

merely appens !o o!a"n !ere would e no e*plana!"on o' wy !e one !a! o!a"ns o!a"ns.

u! as e'ore !a! would e no more mys!er"ous !an !e random mo)emen! o' some par!"le.

+e e*"s!ene o' !e (n")erse an seem "n ano!er way as!on"s"ng. )en "' "! "s no! a''l"ng

!a! real"!y was made !o e some way s"ne !ere "s no one")ale al!erna!")e "! an seem

a''l"ng !a! !e sele!"on wen! as "! d"d. Wy "s !ere a (n")erse a! all# Wy doesn6! real"!y !a%e

"!s s"mples! and leas! ar"!rary 'orm !a! "n w" no!"ng e)er e*"s!s#

/' we '"nd !"s as!on"s"ng we are assum"ng !a! !ese 'ea!ures sould e !e 3ele!ors !a!

real"!y sould e as s"mple and unar"!rary as "! ould e. +a! assump!"on as / el"e)e grea!

plaus""l"!y. u! Cus! as !e s"mples! osm" poss""l"!y "s !a! no!"ng e)er e*"s!s !e s"mples!

e*plana!ory poss""l"!y "s !a! !ere "s no 3ele!or. 3o we sould no! e*pe! s"mpl""!y a! o! !e

'a!ual and e*plana!ory le)els. /' !ere "s no 3ele!or we sould no! e*pe! !a! !ere would also

e no (n")erse. +a! would e an e*!reme o"n"dene.?@A

?@A' se)eral d"suss"ons o' !ese ,ues!"ons / owe mos! !o Jon Gesl"e6s alue and 'xistence

I1979 and !o Hoer! NoE"%6sPhilosophical 'xplanationsI1981= !en !o H"ard 3w"nurne6s

(he 'xistence of )odI1979 Jon


20/21



Leonard Pepper

*'ord








de!erm"nes wa! %"nd o' magaE"ne we e*per"ene. / am !ry"ng !o ge! round o' ourse !o as%"ng

!e :3ele!ors6 wa! was go"ng on wen !ey de"ded !o pul"s $ere% &ar'"!6s !wo-par! ar!"le on





Leonard Pepper

*'ord

Vol. 20 No. 8 1M >pr"l 1998

$ere% &ar'"!6s !our de 'ore IL#$ 5 eruary ra"ses as" p"losop"al prolems aou! !e role!a! e*plana!"ons an leg"!"ma!ely play. &ar'"! assumes !a! !e no!"on o' an e*plana!"on "s

su''""en!ly lear and un"'orm !a! p"losop"al analys"s w"ll sow wen an e*plana!"on "s

needed and ow !o e)alua!e d"''eren! and"da!es and !a! !e r"!er"a apply aross !e oard

'rom e)eryday 'a!s !o s"en!"'" onCe!ures o' )ary"ng general"!y. +"s owe)er "s dou!'ul.

:*plana!"on6 "s an umrella !erm o)er"ng an assor!men! o' loosely rela!ed no!"ons

Ie*plana!"ons "n pys"s ma!ema!"al e*plana!"ons elu"da!"ons lar"'"a!"ons wa! a)e

you. +ere "s a danger o' p"losop"al "llus"on "n !rea!"ng !em as spe"es o' one gener"

onep!.

Ge! me sus!an!"a!e !"s y a par!"ular oCe!"on !o &ar'"!6s argumen!s. &ar'"! d"s!"ngu"ses

!ose e*!remely unl"%ely e)en!s !a! do no! re,u"re e*plana!"on 'rom !ose !a! do. "s

e*ample a !ousand people / among !em 'ae dea!. nly one person an e resued and !a!

person w"ll e osen y lo!!ery. /' / w"n Iw"! odds 1 "n 1000 and my l"'e "s sa)ed !e 'a!

re,u"res no e*plana!"on. :3omeone ad !o w"n and wy no! me#6 /n !e seond senar"o / am

sen!ened !o dea! u! !e sen!ene w"ll e rem"!!ed "' !e gaoler draws !e longes! s!raw ou! o'

a !ousand. +e longes! s!raw "s drawn and my l"'e "s sa)ed. +"s &ar'"! argues "s some!"ng

spe"al !a! re,u"res an e*plana!"on. >ppeal"ng !o o"n"dene won6! do. We w"ll e r"g! !o

onlude !a! "! "s mu more l"%ely !a! !e draw was r"gged. 3ounds on)"n"ng. u! "s "!# >nd

ow 'ar an !"s l"ne o' !oug! e pused#
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n02/derek-parfit/why-anything-why-thishttp://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n02/derek-parfit/why-anything-why-thishttp://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n08/letters#letter40http://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n03/derek-parfit/why-anything-why-thishttp://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n03/derek-parfit/why-anything-why-thishttp://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n02/derek-parfit/why-anything-why-thishttp://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n08/letters#letter40http://www.lrb.co.uk/v20/n03/derek-parfit/why-anything-why-this


21/21

/mag"ne a !"rd senar"o. >s "n !e '"rs! !ere are a !ousand doomed people one o' wom

osen y lo!!ery w"ll sur)")e. /' / appen !o w"n no e*plana!"on "s re,u"red. u! le! !e lo!!ery

e "mplemen!ed as 'ollows. ;o"ng o)er !e alpae!"al l"s! o' !e !ousand people an o''""al

draws aga"ns! ea name a s!raw 'rom an "n"!"al undle o' a !ousand s!raws. +e w"nner "s !e

person aga"ns! wose name !e long s!raw I1 "n 1000 "s drawn. ne !"s appens !e draws

are d"son!"nued. / am !e '"rs! on !e l"s! and !e '"rs! !ry sueeds. *a!ly as "n !e seond

senar"o / am sa)ed y a s"ngle draw o' !e longes! s!raw ou! o' a !ousand w"! no o!er draws

!a%"ng plae. +e "n!en!"on !o e sure was !o arry on "n !e e)en! o' 'a"lure. Wy sould !"s

"n!en!"on ma!!er# 3ay / ad los! and !e lo!!ery on!"nued. >ga"n wy sould !"s

oun!er'a!ual reason"ng ma%e a d"''erene# oun!er'a!uals are usually "n)o%ed "n ausal

e*plana!"ons :ad Jon no! slammed on !e ra%es !e ar would no! a)e swer)ed6 sow"ng

!a! !e slamm"ng was !e ause o' !e swer)"ng. u! "n our ase ausal"!y wor%s "n !e o!er

d"re!"on 'rom my w"nn"ng !o !e !erm"na!"on o' !e lo!!ery. /! does no! e*pla"n my w"nn"ng.

>nd "! "s no! lear wy "! sould o)"a!e !e need 'or e*plana!"on. >nd "' !ere "s no need ere

wy sould !ere e one "n &ar'"!6s seond senar"o#

Haim Gaifman

olum"a (n")ers"!y New or%

Documents

Parfit, Why Anything