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Parametric Cost Modeling Bill Lawson Kara Chaprnka March 10, 2010. NASA Cost Estimating Overview. NASA Cost Estimating Handbook 2008 Defines three cost estimating Methodologies Parametric : based on key engineering data and Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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N A S A G O D D A R D S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R
I n t e g r a t e d D e s i g n C a p a b i l i t y / I n s t r u m e n t D e s i g n L a b o r a t o r y
Do not distribute this material without permissionfrom Antonio Mannino (GSFC-614) or James C.Smith (GSFC-550) (
[email protected], [email protected])This document contains sensitive information and is intended for NASA Official Use Only.
Geostationary Coastal Ecosystem Dynamics Imager (GEO CEDI)
for the GEO Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO CAPE) Mission
Parametric Cost ModelingBill Lawson
Kara Chaprnka
March 10, 2010
I n t e g r a t e d D e s i g n C a p a b i l i t y / I n s t r u m e n t D e s i g n L a b o r a t o r y
Parametric Cost Estimating p2Presentation Version
GEO CAPE Study Week Jan 25 - 27, 2010 Presentation Delivered Mar 10, 2010
Use or disclosure of this data is subject to the restriction on the title page of
this document
NASA Cost Estimating Overview
Proposal cost estimates evaluated at NASA Langley Research Center during Technical, Management, and Cost (TMCO) review
– Parametric models used to validate proposal cost estimate– Assumed criteria for validation of Step 1 proposal (based on feedback): proposal estimate and TMCO
consensus estimate within 20%
NASA Cost Estimating Handbook 2008‒ Defines three cost estimating Methodologies
• Parametric: based on key engineering data and Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs)
• Analogy: comparison and extrapolation to like items or efforts• Engineering Build-Up (i.e., “grass-roots”): Labor and Material
estimates based on experience and “professional judgment”‒ Defines two cost estimating Processes
• Advocacy Cost Estimates (ACE)‒ Cost Estimators are members of program/project team
• Independent Cost Estimates (ICE)‒ Cost Estimators are from an organization separate from project
‒ Encourages parametric modeling and analogy estimates during pre-Phase A and Phase A studies
http://www.nasa.gov/offices/pae/organization/cost_analysis_division.htmlhttp://ceh.nasa.gov
I n t e g r a t e d D e s i g n C a p a b i l i t y / I n s t r u m e n t D e s i g n L a b o r a t o r y
Parametric Cost Estimating p3Presentation Version
GEO CAPE Study Week Jan 25 - 27, 2010 Presentation Delivered Mar 10, 2010
Use or disclosure of this data is subject to the restriction on the title page of
this document
Current GSFC Proposal Cost Estimating“Best Practices”
• Advocacy Cost Estimating – MDL, Proposal Teams
• Grassroots estimate based on Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)• Parametric modeling used for Grassroots validation
– IDL• Parametric modeling used to generate a stand-alone cost estimate• No Grassroots (WBS) cost estimate to validate
• Independent “Assessment” (provided by RAO)– Internal cost estimating tools and historical databases– Provides critical “Sanity Check”
• Evolving “Best Practices”– GSFC Chief Financial Officer (CFO)– NASA Cost Analysis Steering Group– NASA Cost Estimating Handbook
I n t e g r a t e d D e s i g n C a p a b i l i t y / I n s t r u m e n t D e s i g n L a b o r a t o r y
Parametric Cost Estimating p4Presentation Version
GEO CAPE Study Week Jan 25 - 27, 2010 Presentation Delivered Mar 10, 2010
Use or disclosure of this data is subject to the restriction on the title page of
this document
Proposal Cost Estimating Process
You are here
Concept/Formulation Science/Design Study Develop Proposal
GSFC Proposal Path
Grass-roots ROM Grass-roots refinement Grass-roots estimate
Advocacy Cost Estimating Paths
Code 500 MDL/IDL
Study
RAOICE
“Cost SanityCheck”
GO /
NO-GO
Code 500 MDL/IDL
Study
Red TeamICE *
Cost estimating is an on-going iterative process
Cost Model ROM Cost Model refinement Validate Grass-roots Parametric Parametric
*Parametric ICEmay be performed
on proposal
I n t e g r a t e d D e s i g n C a p a b i l i t y / I n s t r u m e n t D e s i g n L a b o r a t o r y
Parametric Cost Estimating p5Presentation Version
GEO CAPE Study Week Jan 25 - 27, 2010 Presentation Delivered Mar 10, 2010
Use or disclosure of this data is subject to the restriction on the title page of
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Parametric Cost Estimating Tools• NASA Cost Estimating Handbook 2008 describes two commercial tools
– PRICE: Parametric Review of Information for Costing and Evaluation• Separate modules for Hardware, Software, Integrated Circuits, and Life Cycle• PRICE H (Hardware) approaches cost estimates by parametrically defining:
– Hardware to be built– Development and manufacturing environments– Operational environment– Schedule
• PRICE H model is built from key engineering data (e.g., MEL: Master Equipment List) • Tool Heritage: Developed by RCA in the 1960’s for the U.S. NAVY, Air force & NASA; Commercialized by
PRICE Systems, L.L.C.• NASA-wide site license for PRICE H managed by Langley Research Center
(GSFC Contact: Dedra Billings, Code 305.0, e-mail: [email protected])• PRICE H use at GSFC:
– Mission Design Lab (MDL/IMDC), 8+ years experience and 100+ S/C Bus models– Instrument Design Lab (IDL/ISAL), 5+ years experience and 70+ Instrument models– Code 600, 8+ years experience, 50+ S/C Bus and 50+ Instrument models
– SEER: System Evaluation & Estimation of Resources• Separate modules for Hardware, Software, Integrated Circuits, Manufacturability and Life Cycle • NASA-wide site license for SEER managed by Langley Research Center• Application-specific use of SEER-H at GSFC (e.g., detectors, cryocoolers, etc.)
I n t e g r a t e d D e s i g n C a p a b i l i t y / I n s t r u m e n t D e s i g n L a b o r a t o r y
Parametric Cost Estimating p6Presentation Version
GEO CAPE Study Week Jan 25 - 27, 2010 Presentation Delivered Mar 10, 2010
Use or disclosure of this data is subject to the restriction on the title page of
this document
PRICE H: Key Input Parameters
• Global Parameters:– Labor Rates (set as appropriate)
• GSFC 2010 Bid Rates (used for in-house build of spacecraft/instrument)• GSFC Typical Contractor Rates
– Used for GSFC vendor provided hardware– Used when actual rates are not available– 10% G&A, 14% Fee
• PRICE H Industry Labor Rates (default labor rates provided by Price Systems, Inc.)– ?% G&A, ?% Fee
– Inflation (NASA escalation rates)
– Engineering Environment (Defined for NASA by PRICE Systems, Inc. calibration study) • Emphasizes: System Engineering, Project Management, Automated design capabilities
• Individual Cost Component Parameters:– Complexity Factors (Table driven, defined by Price Systems from industry experience)– Modification Level/Remaining Design Factor (Heritage)– Quantity and Design Repeat (Learning Curve)– Composition (Structure, Electronic, Purchased, Cost Pass-through)– Mass– Operating Platform (Unmanned Space – High Reliability)
This Study
I n t e g r a t e d D e s i g n C a p a b i l i t y / I n s t r u m e n t D e s i g n L a b o r a t o r y
Parametric Cost Estimating p7Presentation Version
GEO CAPE Study Week Jan 25 - 27, 2010 Presentation Delivered Mar 10, 2010
Use or disclosure of this data is subject to the restriction on the title page of
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GEOCAPE Parametric Inputs:• IDL Discipline Presentations• Master Equipment List (MEL)
Key Assumptions:• GSFC Contractor Bid Rates for the Instrument FY$10• All Electronics Class-S• No existing Manufacturing Process and Assembly Line• Schedule : Project Start September 2013, CDR August 2015, and Production End June 2016.• PRICE-H Estimate includes one Flight Unit (ProtoFlight) and a Fully Integrated Prototype Unit (EDU).• IDL Grassroots estimates for FPGA/Algorithm Development• IDL Grassroots estimates for Detector costs• IDL Grassroots estimates for Flight Software costs• Customer Input Required for Instrument Assembly – CISR and GEOMAC item costs
Output Products:• Powerpoint presentation• PRICE H model results exported to Excel Spreadsheet
IDL Parametric Cost Modeling
I n t e g r a t e d D e s i g n C a p a b i l i t y / I n s t r u m e n t D e s i g n L a b o r a t o r y
Parametric Cost Estimating p8Presentation Version
GEO CAPE Study Week Jan 25 - 27, 2010 Presentation Delivered Mar 10, 2010
Use or disclosure of this data is subject to the restriction on the title page of
this document
Top-Level Cost Model
I n t e g r a t e d D e s i g n C a p a b i l i t y / I n s t r u m e n t D e s i g n L a b o r a t o r y
Parametric Cost Estimating p9Presentation Version
GEO CAPE Study Week Jan 25 - 27, 2010 Presentation Delivered Mar 10, 2010
Use or disclosure of this data is subject to the restriction on the title page of
this document
Expanded Model
I n t e g r a t e d D e s i g n C a p a b i l i t y / I n s t r u m e n t D e s i g n L a b o r a t o r y
Parametric Cost Estimating p10Presentation Version
GEO CAPE Study Week Jan 25 - 27, 2010 Presentation Delivered Mar 10, 2010
Use or disclosure of this data is subject to the restriction on the title page of
this document
GEOCAPE PRICE-H Cost Summary(FY$10 Dollars, Qty. 1 Flight and 1 Fully Integrated EDU (prototype)
(GSFC Contractor Bid Rates)
Engineering
Project Management
Manufacturing
Cost Element(Summary ReportAvailable for each
cost element)
ConstantYear Dollars
(FY$10)
Production
Development
Schedule
Mass
Instrument Development and
Production Cost Estimate~$197.9M
(not including detectors, CISR, and GEOMAC)
I n t e g r a t e d D e s i g n C a p a b i l i t y / I n s t r u m e n t D e s i g n L a b o r a t o r y
Parametric Cost Estimating p11Presentation Version
GEO CAPE Study Week Jan 25 - 27, 2010 Presentation Delivered Mar 10, 2010
Use or disclosure of this data is subject to the restriction on the title page of
this document
Summary Parametric Cost EstimateIDl Parametric Cost Estimate
(IDL = Instrument Design Lab)(Development and Production Costs)
PRICE-H Cost Model Summary08-Mar-10
CEDI (mini MDI) Instrument Assembly (622.17 Kg) $156,761,476External Baffle Assembly $2,773,283Scan Mechanism Assembly $8,834,282Telescope Assembly $22,612,943Band 1 Assembly (340-600nm) $8,029,466Band 2 Assembly (600-900nm) $8,126,759SWIR Assembly $4,905,066Calibration Assembly $10,482,246Instrument Structure Assembly $24,615,511Digitizer Box (Qty:2) $2,972,735SWIR Digitizer Box $4,226,582ACS Assembly $11,270,707CEDI Main Electronic Box Assembly $27,988,069Harness Assembly (Qty:2) $942,933Containmination (TRL-6) $695,555Thermal Subsystem $11,152,071Stewart Platform Vibration Isolation Assembly $7,133,266
GeoCape Suite Assembly (231.21 Kg) $41,133,257Payload C&DH Assembly (Qty:2) $34,381,029Instrument Assembly $6,752,228
PRICE-H Instrument Payload Estimate $197,894,734
Furnished Items: Detectors 1 and 2: Custom TCM8085A (from Detectors Presentation) $11,800,000 Detector 3: HAWAII-2RG (from Detectors Presentation) $3,400,000 CISR: Customer Input Required TBD GEOMAC: Customer Input Required TBD
Instrument Payload Estimate $213,094,734
Flight Software (From Flight Software Presentation) $2,705,400FPGA Development (from Electrical Presentation) $3,600,000Ground Support Equipment (GSE) (5% of Instrument Cost Estimate) $10,654,737Environmental Testing (5% of Instrument Cost Estimate) $10,654,737Flight Spares (10% of Instrument Cost Estimate) $21,309,473Engineering Test Unit (ETU) (not included as per Customer Direction) $0Instrument to S/C Bus Integration & Test (5% of Instrument Cost Estimate, Typically Included in WBS 10.0) $10,654,737
Instrument Subtotal $272,673,817
Institutional Charges (Basis of Estimate: 0% GSFC CM&O) N/A(For GSFC, Contact Code 153 to verify applicability to your project)
Instrument Total $272,673,817
The Following are NOT PRICE-H estimates but are derived from PRICE-H estimates. These are included for completeness and are considered ROM 'Grass-roots' estimates. Consult the Grass-roots estimating organization for a more accurate estimate.
Flight Units = 1Eng Design Units = 1
Cost Estimate (FY$010)
I n t e g r a t e d D e s i g n C a p a b i l i t y / I n s t r u m e n t D e s i g n L a b o r a t o r y
Parametric Cost Estimating p12Presentation Version
GEO CAPE Study Week Jan 25 - 27, 2010 Presentation Delivered Mar 10, 2010
Use or disclosure of this data is subject to the restriction on the title page of
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GEOCAPE_Paramest_031010.xls Detailed Cost Estimate (GSFC Contractor bid rates, FY$10
Dollars)
.
.
.
.
Indenture Title QTY QNA Unit Mass Est Total Cost Mode
GEO CAPE 031010 - Class S Parts - Contractor Bid Rates 1 1 853.380 $197,894,734 System1 CEDI (mini MDI) Instrument Assembly 1 1 $156,761,476 Assembly2 External Baffle Assembly 1 1 $2,773,283 Assembly3 External Baffle (TRL-6) 1 1 9.800 9.800 $961,890 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 3 Aperture Door Assembly 1 1 $1,650,808 Assembly4 Aperture Door (Al core/Composite) (TRL-6) 1 1 2.700 2.700 $629,192 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 4 Door Actuator Motor (TRL-7) 1 1 0.270 0.270 $55,772 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 4 Door Actuator Encoder (TRL-7) 1 1 0.500 0.500 $392,309 ELECTRO / MECHANICAL 4 Door Actuator Harmonic Drive (TRL-7) 1 1 0.090 0.090 $139,581 ELECTRO / MECHANICAL 4 Door Actuator Housing (TRL-5) 1 1 0.500 0.500 $202,928 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 4 Aperture SMA (Launch Lock) - Pin Puller (TRL-7) (1 of 3) 1 1 0.030 0.030 $32,602 ELECTRO / MECHANICAL 4 Misc Hardware 1 1 0.205 0.205 $36,087 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 4 Aperture Door Assembly Integration & Test 1 1 $162,336 INTEG & TEST 3 External Baffle Assembly Integration & Test 1 1 14.095 $160,586 INTEG & TEST 2 Scan Mechanism Assembly 1 1 $8,834,282 Assembly3 Scan Mirror (CME: Highest Quality Optics) (TRL-6) 1 1 9.433 9.433 $5,150,498 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 3 Scan Motor (Qty:2)(TRL-7) 2 2 1.330 2.660 $168,143 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 3 Scan Encoder (Qty:2, TRL-7) 2 2 0.300 0.600 $334,811 ELECTRO / MECHANICAL 3 Scan Mirror SMA (Launch Lock ) - Pin Puller (TRL-7) (2&3 of 3) 2 2 0.030 0.060 $65,204 ELECTRO / MECHANICAL 3 Cable Wrap (TRL-5) 1 1 3.000 3.000 $630,161 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 3 Scan Mounting Structure (Al Core/Composite) (TRL-6) 1 1 10.000 10.000 $1,655,296 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 3 Misc Hardware 1 1 1.288 1.288 $118,306 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 3 Scan Mechanism Assembly Integration & Test 1 1 27.041 $711,864 INTEG & TEST 2 Telescope Assembly 1 1 $22,612,943 Assembly3 Primary Mirror (G1) Assembly 1 1 $8,730,618 Assembly4 Primary Mirror (TRL-6, CME: Highest Quality Optics) 1 1 12.350 12.350 $6,360,126 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 4 Primary Mirror Mount (Al honeycomb) (TRL-6) 1 1 5.800 5.800 $1,215,082 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 4 Primary Mirror Spider (TRL-6) 1 1 1.500 1.500 $365,623 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 4 Misc Hardware 1 1 0.983 0.983 $96,633 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 4 Primary Mirror Assembly Integration & Test 1 1 $693,154 INTEG & TEST 3 Aft Optics Assembly 1 1 $13,254,165 Assembly4 Secondary Mirror Assembly 1 1 $1,396,890 Assembly5 Secondary Mirror (G2) (TRL-6, CME: Highest Quality Optics) 1 1 0.230 0.230 $299,355 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 5 Secondary Mirror Mount (M55J) (TRL-6) 1 1 4.400 4.400 $948,022 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 5 Misc Hardware 1 1 0.232 0.232 $38,891 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 5 Secondary Mirror Assembly Integration & Test 1 1 $110,622 INTEG & TEST 4 Depolarizer Assembly 1 1 $1,303,485 Assembly5 Depolarizer 1 (TRL-6, CME: Highest Quality Optics) 1 1 0.108 0.108 $170,062 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 5 Depolarizer 2 (TRL-6, CME: Highest Quality Optics) 1 1 0.217 0.217 $286,570 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 5 Depolarizer Mount (M55J) (TRL-6) 1 1 3.000 3.000 $714,484 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 5 Misc Hardware 1 1 0.166 0.166 $31,781 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 5 Depolarizer Assembly Integration & Test 1 1 $100,588 INTEG & TEST 4 Schwarzschild 1 (S1) Mirror Assembly 1 1 $1,007,803 Assembly5 S1 Mirror (TRL-6, CME: Highest Quality Optics) 1 1 0.119 0.119 $182,824 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 5 S1 Mirror Mount (M55J) (TRL-6) 1 1 3.000 3.000 $714,484 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 5 Misc Hardware 1 1 0.156 0.156 $30,618 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 5 Schwarzschild 1 (S1) Mirror Assembly Integration & Test 1 1 $79,878 INTEG & TEST 4 S2 Mirror Assembly 1 1 $7,157,426 Assembly5 S2 Mirror (TRL-6, CME: Highest Quality Optics) 1 1 10.641 10.641 $5,659,690 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 5 S2 Mirror Mount (Al Core/Composite)(TRL-6) 1 1 2.400 2.400 $576,943 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 5 S2 Mirror Spider (TRL-6) 1 1 0.960 0.960 $263,793 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 5 Misc Hardware 1 1 0.700 0.700 $76,743 STRUCTURAL / MECHANICAL 5 S2 Mirror Assembly Integration & Test 1 1 $580,258 INTEG & TEST
Total Mass (Kg)
