Paper presented at the BSPS Annual Conference, Leicester, 13-15 September 2004

Population change 1971-2001 for the City Regions and Localities of

Great Britain

Tony Champion and Mike CoombesCentre for Urban & Regional Development Studies

University of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RUTel: +44 (0) 191 222 6437, Email: tony.champion@ncl.ac.uk

Population change 1971-2001 for the City Regions and Localities of Great Britain

• Introduction: aims, outline, acknowledgments to Simon Raybould & Colin Wymer

• The City Regions & Localities framework• Population change 1971-2001 for City Regions:

growth, decline, recovery, backsliding?• City Region cores as leaders or laggards in City

Region growth?• Between-Locality variations in change rates:

testing roles of North/South & Urban/Rural• Summary and next steps in research

The City Regions & Localities framework

• Derived from research for ESRC by CURDS: see Coombes (2000)

• Defined on the basis of information on functional linkages and areal associations

• 307 Localities which typically comprise at least one urban centre and adjacent linked areas

• 43 City Regions centred on Localities with ‘regional city’ characteristics and containing others linked by commuting and migration

• Embraces polycentric urban forms

Rationale behind this framework

• Administrative areas are the ‘off the shelf’ option but they thwart meaningful city/town comparisons:! Manchester is under- and Leeds over-bounded ! ? which part of London is comparable to Bristol ? ? what can be used as a set of City Regions ?

• Research shows coherent patterns emerge in analyses if meaningful functionally-defined areas are used * areas reflect how modern urban systems work * each area can be seen as a local housing market * the local ‘churn’ of house moves is internalised * hierarchy of Localities fitting into City Regions

Defining functional areas in practice

• Need to analyse data on patterns of flows / linkages: commuting migration goods information etc

• Definitions of ‘multi-function’ areas should ideally reflect the patterns in several varied flow datasets

• The ‘traditional’ model was of one ‘core’ with its catchment area

but polynuclear areas are now more common, so analyses must look at flows to / from everywhere

• The 307 Localities are defined using a Synthetic Data method drawing on very many different strands of evidence on area linkages

• Example: in and around W Yorks ‘urban area’

West Yorkshire: complex case study

Localities: clustered linkages = ‘towns’?

City Regions: groups of Localities

City Regions in northern England

City Regions in southeastern England

38 City Regions of England and Wales

Population change 1971-2001 for City Regions

• Data from Census, using (mainly) EDs/OAs to produce best-fit to the 1991 wards from which Localities and City Regions are built

• Population defined on the basis used at each Census, i.e. population present 1971, residents (present/absent basis) 1981, residents 1991, residents (students at term-time address) 2001

• Population change rate adjusted to % point above/below GB rate (to measure change in relative performance between decades and partially allow for differences in bases)

How similar are City Region 1991-2001 change rates from Census and MYE (latter for best-fit from LAs)?

1991-2001 population change (%) for 43 City Regions, census-based versus mye-based

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

census-based change

y mye

-bas

ed c

hang

e

Cambridge

Oxford

York

Inverness

How similar are City Region 1981-1991 change rates from Census and MYE (latter for best-fit from LAs)?

1981-91 population change (%) for 43 City Regions, census-based versus mye-based

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

census-based change

mye

-bas

ed c

hang

e

Aberdeen

Inverness

Population change for City Regions, 1971-2001, standardised to GB rate = 0.0%: top and bottom five

Rank 1971-1981 % 1981-1991 % 1991-2001 %

1 Peterborough 19.6 Peterborough 12.1 Cambridge 7.3

2 Northampton 12.7 Cambridge 9.5 Oxford 6.5

3 Shrewsbury 12.0 Exeter 7.8 Worcester 5.3

4 Norwich 10.8 Oxford 7.7 Shrewsbury 5.0

5 Cambridge 10.6 Northampton 7.7 Exeter 5.0

(GB) (0.0) (GB) (0.0) (GB) (0.0)

39 Manchester -3.2 Sheffield -4.0 Manchester -3.8

40 Dundee -3.2 Manchester -4.1 Newcastle -4.8

41 London -3.3 Newcastle -4.6 Middlesbrough -5.0

42 Liverpool -5.0 Glasgow -7.6 Glasgow -5.8

43 Glasgow -6.9 Liverpool -8.0 Liverpool -7.0

43 City Regions: 1981-1991 and 1991-2001 standardised change rates compared

population change rate, 43 GB City regions, 1981-1991 versus 1991-2001, % point differentials from GB rate

-8

-4

0

4

8

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

1981-1991

1991

-200

1

% point shift in population change for City Regions, 1970s-to-1980s and 1980s-to-1990s,

standardised to GB rate = 0.0%: top and bottom five

Rank 1970s to 1980s % pt 1980s to 1990s % pt

1 London 3.71 Leeds 2.632 Oxford 2.81 Coventry 2.543 Brighton 2.78 London 2.224 Exeter 2.59 Lincoln 1.995 Southampton 1.95 Edinburgh 1.9039 Middlesbrough -4.38 Norwich -3.9640 Norwich -4.75 Plymouth -5.8841 Shrewsbury -4.78 Aberdeen -6.2542 Northampton -4.97 Peterborough -7.7643 Peterborough -7.49 Inverness -8.33

Classification of 43 City Regions by level of change rate for 1970s, 1980s and 1990s

• Steady growth (rate above GB in all decades); Brighton, Bristol, Cambridge, Derby, Exeter, Gloucester, Ipswich, Leicester, Lincoln, Northampton, Norwich, Oxford, Peterborough, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Reading, Shrewsbury, Southampton, Worcester, York (20)

• Steady decline (rate below GB in all decades): Birmingham, Bradford, Cardiff, Coventry, Dundee, Glasgow, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, Sheffield (11)

• Recovering (rate shifts from below to above GB): Edinburgh, London (2)

• Backsliding (rate shifts from above to below GB): Aberdeen, Carlisle, Chester, Hull, Inverness, Middles-borough, Nottingham, Preston, Stoke, Swansea (10)

• NB. No moves across GB=0.0 line and back again

Classification of 43 City Regions by trajectory of standardised change rate 70s-to-80s, 80s-to-90s

• Upward shift between both pairs of decades (//): Edinburgh, London (2)

• Upward shift into 1990s after downward in 1980s, i.e. troughing in 1980s (\/): Bradford, Coventry, Derby, Glasgow, Leeds, Leicester, Lincoln, Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield (10)

• Downward shift in 1990s after upward in 1980s, i.e. peaking in 1980s (/\): Brighton, Dundee, Exeter, Oxford, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Southampton, Worcester, York (9)

• Downward shift between both pairs of decades (\\): All others (22)

City Region ‘cores’ as leaders or laggards in City Region growth?

• Concerning the current debates about investing in ‘core cities’ so as to revive the regions

• [Alternative academic debate: are City Regions (de)concentrating in absolute or relative terms?]

• To what extent are City Region cores growing more strongly than (the rest of) their Regions?

• How has the performance of the cores relative to their City Regions altered since the 70s?

• Definitions: ‘core’ = Regional City of each City Region; performance = population change (from Census, with checks against Mid Year Estimates, MYEs)

Population change differential between Regional City and its City Region, 1971-81, 1981-91 and 1991-2001

Population change differential between Regional City and its City Region, 1971-81, 1981-91 and 1991-2001

-10

-5

0

5

10

City region ranked by RC minus CR 1991-2001 rate differential

% p

oint

diff

eren

ce (R

C m

inus

CR

)

RC-CR7181W RC-CR8191E RC-CR9101E

City Regions classified by whether Regional City was lagging or leading

Size of CR in 2001 (million people)

Number of CRs

Regional City lagging Regional City leading1971-1981

1981-1991

1991-2001

1971-1981

1981-1991

1991-2001

All CRs 43 35 35 21 8 8 22

3.20+ 1 1 1 0 0 0 1

1.60-3.19 7 7 7 3 0 0 4

1.00-1.59 8 6 5 1 2 3 7

<1.00 27 21 22 17 6 5 10

Population change, 1971-2001, for ten major cities and their City Region remainders

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

London Birmingham Manchester Liverpool Bristol Leeds Sheffield Glasgow Nottingham Newcastle

*NB. - actual rates (GB rate 1971-81 -0.7%, 1981-91 2.5%, 1991-2001 4.0%)

% fo

r dec

ade*

Core 71-81 Rest 71-81 Core 81-91 Rest 81-91 Core 91-01 Rest 91-01

Population change, 1981-2001, for ten major cities and their City Region remainders (calculated from MYEs 4.11.03 using best-fit LAs)

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

London Birmingham Manchester Liverpool Bristol Leeds Sheffield Glasgow Nottingham Newcastle

*NB. - actual rates (GB rate 1981-91 1.9%, 1991-2001 2.7%)

% fo

r dec

ade*

Core 81-91 MYE Rest 81-91 MYE Core 91-01 MYE Rest 91-01 MYE

City Region ‘cores’ as leaders or laggards in City Region growth? Main results:

• For 43 City Regions, Regional Cities were predominantly laggards in 1970s and 1980s, but half were leaders by 1990s

• Among CRs with over 1m residents in 2001, the majority (12 out of 16) had leading RCs in 1990s

• Among smaller CRs, the majority (10 out of 27) had lagging RCs in 1990s

• Among GB’s 10 major cities, all had lagging RCs in 1970s and 1980s, but in 1990s 6 had leading RCs (Leeds, Liverpool, London, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield) BUT (allowing for 1991 undercount and ‘student’ effect)

• Using MYEs for LA-best-fits, only London CR had a leading CR in 1990s

Between-Locality variations in change rates: testing the roles of North/South & Urban/Rural

• Traditionally, the principal dimensions are North v South, Urban v Rural – how has the strength of these altered since 1970s?

• North/South split based on line roughly from Severn to Humber: South includes CRs of Coventry, Leicester, Nottingham and Lincoln

• Urban/Rural based on Coombes & Raybould’s Urbanization Index 1991

• Coverage is 262 Localities of England and Wales• Graphs, then regression results for N/S & U/R • Analysis by previous-decade rates and N/S

% population change for 262 Localities of England and Wales, by log Urbanization

Index 1991 and North (red) / South (green) 1981-1991 1991-2001

log(UINDX91)

2.01.51.0.50.0-.5

%81

-91E

40

30

20

10

0

-10

NS

2

1

log(UINDX91)

2.01.51.0.50.0-.5

%91

-01E

30

20

10

0

-10

NS

2

1

262 Localities of England & Wales: regression results for N/S & U/R

Decade Beta coefficients Adjusted R2

N (1) / S (2) Log UrbIndex91

1971-1981 0.283 -0.230 0.137

1981-1991 0.370 -0.546 0.464

1991-2001 0.449 -0.341 0.338

Positive effect of South rises between decades Negative effect of Urban much stronger in 80s than 70s, but drops back in 90s Low R2, so plenty of variance to be accounted for by other factors

262 Localities of England & Wales: regression results for N/S & momentum of previous-decade population change rate

Decade Beta coefficients Adjusted R2N (1) / S (2) Rate for previous

decade

1981-1991 0.243 0.567 0.460

1991-2001 0.266 0.509 0.438

Considerable momentum from previous decade, though slightly less from 80s to 90s (student effect?) Simple correlation of change rates between decades: 80sV70s r=0.64, 90sV80s r=0.62 Positive effect of South rises a little between decades Still a lot of variance in between-decade shift to be ‘explained’ using other factors, more in 90s than 80s

Summary of findings• Applied a new portrayal of GB’s urban system that

chimes with current policy initiatives on regional development and housing market areas, as well as academic research

• Confirms persistent underperformance of City Regions headed by large provincial cities, while strongest are CRs in much-greater-SE and Midlands

• Across 3 decades London and Edinburgh are in a class of their own: decline->growth, accelerating

• Regional Cities shifting to lead their CRs in 90s, according to Census data, but not such an encouraging picture for 10 major cities from MYEs

• At Locality level, clear N/S and U/R dimensions to growth in all 3 decades, with N/S increasing in importance but U/R peaking in 80s – and less inertia in patterns 80s-to-90s

Next steps in research

• Further tests on robustness of change rates, using latest (09.09.04) MYEs … but challenges of adjusting for Census undercounts in both 1991 and 2001 as well as student definition change, and of allowing for LA v ED/OA effect

• Further work on trends across 3 decades in RC/CR lead/lag relationships and discriminating factors in relative performance of RCs

• Annual trends, using MYEs (after 07.10.04)• Analysis of the ‘unexplained’ variance in growth-

rate variance at Locality level• Examination of alternative performance measures

such as job growth and GVA• Comparison of insights with those from other

geographies, e.g. ‘urban areas’ from SOCR 2005