Panel on the Future of Science - SASA · • The global middle class will increase by additional 1bn by 2025 • By 2025 47% of the global GDP will be generated by just 440 cities

Panel on the Future of Science

Scottish Government’s Science and Engineering

Profession 2014 Conference

Julia Brown

“Its the economy,

stupid”

JOBS

INTERNATIONALISATION

INNOVATION

GROWTH COMPANIES

Our input to sectors will be tailored to where we add most value

Internationally Traded

Oil & Gas

Food & Drink

Technology & Engineering

Financial Services

Chemical Sciences

Universities

High contribution to:

GDP and potential for export growth and FDI

SE role to support export-led growth, improving

competitiveness in global value-chains and diversification into

new market opportunities

Emerging

Offshore Renewables

Life Sciences

Creative Industries

Ability to accelerate new growth through:

Future growth to scale

Development of key Scottish assets

SE role to accelerate the development and growth of the sector through exploitation of

the asset base and reinforcement of Scotland’s advantages in international

markets

Underpinning

Tourism

Construction

Forestry & Timber

Textiles

Defined for their contribution to Scotland’s employment and business

environment

SE role to enhance the contribution to Scotland’s

competitive advantage, reflecting the importance of

these sectors to Employment and Regional Equity

Supporting sector growth

We also support cross-sector opportunities including Big Data; High

Value manufacturing; Enhanced Health and; Industrial Biotech

35,000 employees in over

650 organisations

over 170 core

medical device

companies

a world leading

centre for

stem cell research & regenerative medicine

largest cluster of

world class

animal health

researchers

Life Sciences in Scotland

NHS Scotland

a single healthcare system

Cradle to Grave single medical record

pharma services

companies 140

Scotland’s Life Sciences

Research Funding

30

26 15

11

7 7 4

Council Research GrantResearch Council Research Grant CharitiesPublic BusinessEurope Other

Breakdown

of Scottish

HEI sources

of research

income

academic

year 2011-12

Collaboration with Companies

International Comparative Performance of the Scottish Performance in Life sciences Elsevier, 2013

Collaboration between Scottish university and either Scottish

or foreign corporation

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Horizon scanning

Scan. Prioritise. Take action. Today.

We know that:

• The global middle class will increase by

additional 1bn by 2025

• By 2025 47% of the global GDP will be

generated by just 440 cities in developing

economies

• Many of today’s global companies emerged

through disruptive innovation (Amazon,

Netflix, Microsoft, Cisco ..)

• Every minute, the world’s 2.1bn internet

population ‘likes’ 34,722

brands/organisations on Facebook

• China and India will produce 40% of the

world’s graduates by 2020

Transformative change is happening.

Are the growth companies and sectors

we support genuinely prepared for:

• Changing customer demands ?

• Shifts in global markets ?

• Competition from new entrants, markets and

business models – from anywhere in the world ?

• Changing workforce expectations ?

• Adaptation to climate change and resource

costs/constraints ?

• Unforeseen technological developments ?

What future are we planning for ?

e

Drivers of change

UNCERTAINTY

PREDICTABILITY

TIME

INTELLIGENCE

(0 – 1 YEAR)

FORESIGHTING

(2 – 5 YEARS)

HORIZON

SCANNING

(5 YEARS +)

Horizon scanning:

• Focusing on the weak

signals of change

• New opportunities as well

as unfamiliar perspectives

on ‘old’ issues

• A global perspective

• Collates intelligence from

SE staff and partners

• Complements technology

foresighting undertaken by

Sector Teams

Economic

change

Market

change

Disruptive

change

Overview

• Purpose

– To provide an ‘early warning system’,

identifying emerging opportunities and

threats for the Scottish economy

– To prompt action-oriented responses by SE

• Benefits

– An anticipative approach to economic

development

– Encourages an outward, forward-looking

perspective by customers

– Drives the project pipeline

What makes a good horizon

scanning topic ?

any topic not currently being

addressed by SE that could

potentially have significant

implications for the Scottish

economy

we are particularly looking for

topics that fit within one or

more of the six strategic

themes

Theme 1: Changing markets, changing customers

Some illustrative signals of change …

KEY TRENDS :

Global cultural diversity, needing differentiated market approaches

Boom in the global middle class

Millenial consumers – young, smart and tech-savvy

Potential for significant slowdown in the BRIC economies

Theme 2: Innovative business and investment models

KEY TRENDS :

New models of business collaboration

Disruptive business model innovation

Value created through the blurring of services and products

Alternative sources of funding and investment


Theme 3: Talent, skills and work

KEY TRENDS :

Automation of routine tasks

Increase in global, mobile talent

Explosion in highly talent pool in Asia

Workplace innovation


Theme 4: Climate change and resource use revolution

IMPLICATIONS ?

Global demographic change

IMPLICATIONS ?

Global demographic change

KEY TRENDS :

Demand for natural resources outstripping supply

Alternative sources of energy

Climate-resilient food supply chains

Migration and global environmental change


Theme 5: Health, wellbeing and the economy

KEY TRENDS :

Growth in chronic diseases in society

Digital health solutions for home treatment

Growing impacts of mental health on the labour market and productivity

Health and wellness technologies


Theme 6: The future of economic development

KEY TRENDS :

New thinking about the purpose of economic development

New collaborative delivery models

New organisational structures for economic development agencies

New players and global ‘competition’


Outline

Background and Capability of the James Hutton Institute,

Horizon scanning EU/Worldwide on topics close to James Hutton Institute

Future of Science

- Converging technologies

- New ways with new providers of science

Population of 8.3 billion by 2030 (UN)

Food

50% increase in

demand (FAO)

Energy

50% increase in

demand (EIA)

Freshwater

30% increase in

demand (FAO)

Land

120m ha needed in

developing countries

crop production (FAO)

Soil erosion &

biodiversity loss

The Global Challenge

Platform for the future

• c. 340 scientists and 130 support staff (glasshouse and farms support, finance and admin)

• Joint appointments at professorial and senior lecturer level with Universities of Dundee (6), Aberdeen (2), St Andrews(1), Heriot Watt (1)

• Post-graduate school of >130 students registered for PhD

• Host Biomathematics Statistics Scotland (BioSS) – 29 staff

• Host the Division of Plant Sciences, University of Dundee at our Invergowrie Site - c. 45 staff and students

Discipline diversity

Genetics

Biogeochemistry

Physics Bioinformatics

Geo-informatics

Plant breeding

Biology Chemistry

Mineralogy

Plant physiology

Crop science

Economics Mathematics

Plant physiology

Soil science

Analytical chemistry

Agro-ecology

Hydrology

Entomology Virology

Zoology

Microbiology

Systems modelling

Entomology

Ecology

Plant Pathology

Psychology

Molecular biology

Geography Sociology

Statistics

Epidemiology

Biochemistry

Soil/land survey

Platform for the future - Facilities • Two main office and lab sites in Aberdeen

and Dundee – Incl. 10,000 m² of specialised glasshouse and growth

rooms

• Extensive chemical, physics and biology labs and a huge range of cutting edge analytical equipment

– Sequencing and microarray facility – Confocal, TEM Microscopy – Plant Transformation Facility – Labs for plant, animal, invertebrate, microbial, virology ,

soil and water – Field capability in air, water, soil and wildlife monitoring – Inorganic and organic chemical analysis – Metabolomics – Stable isotopes – Mineralogy analysis by XRD, SEM and FTIR – Computational processing and storage facilities – Specialist engagement facilities e.g. Landscape

visualisation theatre; Touch table;

• Four farms with wide range of land use/soil types

Platform for the future - Scientific collections

• Crop seed and germplasm – Commonwealth Potato Collection - >1500 accessions, 93 species

– Barley collection

– Rubes, Ribes Collection

• Pests and Pathogens – Aphids

– Phytophthora

• Plant Herbarium

• National Soils Archive – Air dried soil

–Soil DNA

Platform for the future - Long term data • Meteorological Data

• Two WMO registered sites contributing to UK and Global data

• COSMOS UK Network

• Environmental Change Network

• Water, soil, air, biodiversity

• UK, European and Global network

• Pollen Records – National network – reported

as Pollen index on TV /radio weather forecasts

• Aphid Records – National network on

surveillance of pests

• Livestock, crop and soil records from long

term experiments

• National Data on soil and land attributes

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Tem

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C

Year

Impact

• Contribution to national and international

science in terms of findings, innovations and

international data , knowledge and wisdom

• Leadership of science through committees,

expert and advisory panels, consortia

• KE and training

• Wealth creation through:

• new products, patents and IP (crops, data products, programs; instrumentation);

• advice on better management, risk and uncertainty, policy

Horizon scanning - What's new since last SCAR1 report?

• The vulnerability of the food system • The sustainable development challenge of agriculture and

food systems • The complexity of the new challenges even greater than we

thought • The underestimation of the rate of climate change • The adequacy of the Agri-Environment Knowledge System • The convergence of new technologies • Underestimate of greening/CAP reforms to halt and reverse

biodiversity, especially the uplands • Signs of new community empowerment – e.g. local energy

networks, local food networks

1 European Commission, Standing Committee on Agricultural Research SCAR FORESIGHT EXERCISEs

Convergence in Future Science

• Human microbiome Project

• Fundamental insight on how microbes in and on us control the physiology and health of each and everyone of us.

• This is going to be true for all macro-organisms including crops & livestock

• If we converge the age of the microbiome

with that of the e.g. crop genomes we will

probably be designing new crops and new

management systems that use the natural

microbes in soil, plants and insects to alter

gene expression in pests, pathogens and

plants for improved health, vitality and

productivity of crops, the environment and

humans

The James Hutton Institute – founded on science – future in partnership

• James Hutton (1726 – 1797)

- leading figure of the Scottish

Enlightenment whose work spanned

chemistry, medicine, meteorology,

geology, botany and zoology

• Discoverer of “Deep Time” and one of

the first to describe the Earth as a living

system and …….a farmer

• Today we have conventionally very

formalised scientists but it is changing?

• Co-construction with the problem owners

• Citizen science

• Crowd solutions

• Private companies publishing academic journals

http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/073820692X/ref=sib_dp_pt

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/images/0297829750/ref=dp_image_0?ie=UTF8&n=283155&s=books

http://books.google.com/books?id=1bmiLkX5pPkC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0

Future Plans – Open Science • Human Resource – continue to grow Social and computational sciences and our Post-

graduate school

• Land resource – enhance our research platforms, new agri-renewables platform, more

open access

• Scientific collections – enhance and increase open access

• Facilities – enhance through infra-structure replacement programme, especially IT,

innovation centres (e.g. International Barley IC), more open access and sharing with

stakeholders

Policy stages of 4- 8 years

Macro-Trends (landscape environment, social, policy drivers)

Technology and Research Developments (landscape and regime drivers)

DISRUPTIONS & TURBU- LENCES AS DRIVER FOR CHANGE

Agriculture and Food Developments (regime drivers)

Development of important alternatives (niche drivers)

Period 2016-2023

• Acceleration of water and soil scarcity

• Fossil energy use still continues Kyoto II climate change measures

• Reorientation in Rural policies towards more ecosystem service

• Price segmentation will even stronger continue between premium and mass production.

• Strong importation from global players

• Strong migration flows • Severe world-wide food

scandals and pandemic diseases

• Strong civil society concerns and loss of trust.

• Strong development of nanotechnology and genome based technologies

• Switch to intra-species GMO

• Still strong development of information technology

• Break through centralised technology

• Research more on the interlinkages and cross-cutting issues

• More open-space research

• Research of the full costs of food and farming systems

• WATER AND SOIL SCARCITIES SEVERE FOOD SCARCITIES FOR THE POOR PANDEMICS AND BIOSECURITY SCANDALS RESISTANCE PROBLEMS AS SHORTFALL

• Still strong centralization within the food and agri- sector Reorientation of CAP with much less money for direct payments Bio-and agro-energy boom

• Food shortages in some areas The push for high-yield crops will lead to more input use More environmental pressure More and more intensive arable production with maize and rape seed Livestock: more and more resistance problems

• Mostly big farms will profit of high-tech technology

• Strong change of ownerships of land Continued centralisation of the food sector more risks of widespread diseases. Use of cheap (seasonal) labour

• More regionalism and different sustainable label claims

• Reconsideration of the value-basis

• New certification systems

• More coexistence problems between Non-GMO- and GMO-farming

• Agricultural machine industry development potential

• Some regions GMO free • More farmer based

research breeding concepts

Horizon scanning e.g. Table 11 (slightly modified) from SCAR Report - Trends and development scenarios in the food and farming sector

SASA © Crown Copyright

Future of Science

A human perspective

John Kerr


Future…what future?


Actually it is more nuanced


and polarised




More informed does not

mean more accepting



Engagement and trust





Publication is a

start but…



£$€ Show me the Money €$£

…research spending as % GDP. The UK has fallen behind

the European average - a trend that has occurred over

successive governments and one that is set to continue

Case October 2014




Public

interface


And Then

We must also engage the public

in that that work

We must make

the links to

maximise

returns from

our science.

www.moredun.org.uk

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www.moredun.org.uk

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www.moredun.org.uk

Moredun Research Institute

“To prevent and control infectious diseases of livestock, working in partnership with the

farming community”

www.moredun.org.uk

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Moredun Research Institute

Infectious endemic livestock diseases of relevance to Scotland, UK, EU and worldwide

Livestock sector in UK contributes £ 8 Billion

Losses associated with disease £ 1 Billion

Food security: Demand for food expected to

increase by 40% in 2030 and by 70% in 2050

Dietary shifts: Emerging economies

Increase sustainable efficiency of livestock

production, improve welfare and reduce

waste

www.moredun.org.uk

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Moredun Research Institute Develop sustainable control strategies for livestock diseases

Multi-disciplinary approach

Parasitology Bacteriology Virology

Immunology Bioinformatics Molecular Biology Proteomics/Genomics

Surveillance Pathology Epidemiology

62% of human pathogens are zoonotic

75% of emerging diseases are zoonotic

www.moredun.org.uk

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www.moredun.org.uk

Achievements at Moredun

• Identification of the cause of 18 diseases

• Characterisation of the pathogenesis of 23 diseases

• Development of vaccines for 11 diseases

• Development of treatment strategies for 12 diseases

• Surveillance service for 36 diseases

www.moredun.org.uk

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www.moredun.org.uk

Future Challenges

Delivering impactful science with diminishing resources Prevention is better than cure: sustainable disease control solutions (use of chemotherapeutics, food safety, effective vaccines) Maximising vaccine efficacy and understanding failure (co-infections, host genetics) Interpreting large data sets (‘wet’ lab and computational skills) Public acceptance of science and technological advances (ability to genetically modify pathogens and hosts)

www.moredun.org.uk

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Documents

Panel on the Future of Science - SASA · • The global middle class will increase by additional 1bn by 2025 • By 2025 47% of the global GDP will be generated by just 440 cities