Upload
mervyn-cummings
View
220
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Panarchy
Dr. Green
Complex Systems
• Change is episodic– Slow accumulation with sudden release– Cycles on different time scales
• Naturally lumpy world– Patchy and discontinuous world– Nonlinear processes are operative in scales
• Multiple states
• Systems are uncertain and unpredictable
Stability
• Engineering resilience– Efficiency– Control– Constancy– Predictability
• Mechanistic systems ontology
• Stability near equilibrium– Resistance to disturbance
Engineering Resilience
• Variability of natural systems can be controlled
• Consequences are predictable
• Sustained maximum production is the goal
• Single objective=only one equilibrium
• Other states can be avoided by proper controls
Stability
• Ecological resilience– Adaptiveness– Variability– Unpredictability
• Complex systems ontology• Far from equilibrium
– Instabilities can flip system into another stable configuration
• Multiple stable states
Nature as Flat
• A ball balanced at the top of a hill– No stability– Random processes– Destabilizing forces are primary
Nature as Balanced
• A ball at the bottom of a cup– Equilibrium– Negative feedback returns to equilibrium– Static world
Nature as Resilient
• A ball poised between multiple hills and valleys– Discontinuous events– Nonlinear processes
Nature as Evolving
• Nature is a raft– Add weight, it oscillates and returns to
another stable state– Too much weight under the raft, the raft sinks– Too much weight on top of raft, it will flip
• Loss of stability
Myths of Nature
• Nature is flat or anarchic– Strong stabilizing forces
• Nature is balanced– Strong destabilizing forces
• Nature as resilient– Can maintain a maladaptive state
• Nature as a complex adaptive system– Conserve the ability to adapt
Complex Systems
• Oscillation between accumulation and release of potential
• Oscillation between stability and instability
• Oscillation between vulnerability and persistencer
Complex Systems
• Potential available for change, gives range of options
• Degree of internal connectedness
• Resilience or vulnerability to unexpected shocks
Adaptive Cycle
• Exploitation Stage—rapid colonization or recently disturbed areas– Extensive dispersal abilities– Rapid growth– Scramble competition—the first to the prize
wins– Entrepreneurial stage
Adaptive Cycle
• Conservation—slow accumulation and storage of energy and material– Slower growth– Content competition—resources divided and
sequestered– bureaucracy
Adaptive Cycle
• Release– Overconnectedness leads to fragility– Fragility leads to rigidity and collapse
• Reorganization– Innovation and restructuring– Pioneer species
Adaptive Cycle
• Basic resources eliminated then system exists in a degraded state
• With sufficient carryover, the system goes through another cycle of development
Novelty
• Reorganization– Low connectedness and high resilience
• Novel combinations and low risk of systemic failure
– Leakiness– Greatest uncertainty
• Renewal• crises
r to K
• Exploiting opportunities in a variability environment
• Connectedness is low so external variability is important
• Winners expand and grow• Relationships develop that reinforce their own
expansion• Emphasis on control of variability• Long time period• Growth and stability phase
K to Omega
• Structural vulnerability
• Connections broken
• Regulatory controls weakened
• Strong destabilizing positive feedback
Omega to Alpha
• Sudden increase in uncertainty
• Unpredictable associations
• Maximizes invention and reassortment