Pakistan: The Sunni Bomb.. Yousaf Gilani Prime Minister

Pakistan: The Pakistan: The Sunni Bomb.Sunni Bomb.

Yousaf Gilani Prime Yousaf Gilani Prime MinisterMinister

Asif Zardari: Corrupt Asif Zardari: Corrupt PresidentPresident

Pervez Musharref: deposed Pervez Musharref: deposed General and former (and General and former (and future?)President.future?)President.

RobberRobber: “Give me all your money!”: “Give me all your money!”ZardariZardari: “Don’t you know who I am? I am : “Don’t you know who I am? I am Asif Ali Zardari.”Asif Ali Zardari.”RobberRobber: “OK. Give me all my money” : “OK. Give me all my money”

Q: How many zardari jokes are there on Q: How many zardari jokes are there on the Internet?the Internet?A: Only one. The rest are all true. A: Only one. The rest are all true.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVsHthttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVsHtUrhGS8UrhGS8

President ZardariPresident Zardari

Military leader Musharraf was forced out Military leader Musharraf was forced out and an election with ex Prime Minister and an election with ex Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was to be held. She was Benazir Bhutto was to be held. She was assassinated by Islamic extremists and her assassinated by Islamic extremists and her husband, Zardari took over. Bhutto was husband, Zardari took over. Bhutto was running on an anti Taliban platformrunning on an anti Taliban platform She was Western leaningShe was Western leaning Maintains a weak hold over Maintains a weak hold over

government.government. The military and secret service, the ISI, The military and secret service, the ISI,

maintain much of the powermaintain much of the power Thought by many to be corrupt.Thought by many to be corrupt.

Population is 181 million, more than half Population is 181 million, more than half of the United States.of the United States.

22ndnd Largest Muslim country in the world, Largest Muslim country in the world, behind Indonesia.behind Indonesia.

43% of the population is under 15.43% of the population is under 15. U.S. 20% under 15.U.S. 20% under 15.

Ethnic groupsEthnic groups

95% Muslim (75% Sunni; 20% Shiite)95% Muslim (75% Sunni; 20% Shiite) Punjabi 44%, Punjabi 44%, Pashtu 15% (mostly in West, near Pashtu 15% (mostly in West, near

Afghanistan (Tribal reserve, Swat Valley, Afghanistan (Tribal reserve, Swat Valley, Taliban), Taliban),

Balance made up of various smaller Balance made up of various smaller ethnic groups.ethnic groups.

GovernmentGovernment

Capitol Capitol Islamabad,Islamabad, northeast of country, very northeast of country, very close to tribal lands bordering Afghanistan and close to tribal lands bordering Afghanistan and Kashmir. Dominated by Kashmir. Dominated by PunjabisPunjabis

Parliamentary democracy with huge military Parliamentary democracy with huge military influence, influence, with routine coupswith routine coups. (might say the . (might say the military really rules the country, with the military really rules the country, with the ISI,ISI, the the Pakistani security forces)Pakistani security forces)

Many believe much of government run by Many believe much of government run by secret service, the ISI who has secret service, the ISI who has close ties to close ties to Islamic extremist.Islamic extremist.

EconomicsEconomics

Inflation rate 14%, Inflation rate 14%, National debt 50% of GDP (U.S 100%)National debt 50% of GDP (U.S 100%) They have no oil.They have no oil. Growth 4.8%, largely because of Growth 4.8%, largely because of U.S. aidU.S. aid UnderdevelopedUnderdeveloped, huge inflation rate, , huge inflation rate,

dependent on foreign aid.dependent on foreign aid. In 2008 U.S. gave them 12 billion in aid In 2008 U.S. gave them 12 billion in aid

about ½ their budget.about ½ their budget.

Demographics: Pop 175 Demographics: Pop 175 millionmillion

GDP: $2600 ($U.S.: 46000)GDP: $2600 ($U.S.: 46000) Life Expectancy: 65 yearsLife Expectancy: 65 years Below poverty: 24%Below poverty: 24% Unemployment: 15%Unemployment: 15% Literacy rate: 50% (63% male, 36%Literacy rate: 50% (63% male, 36%

females)females)

Pakistani HistoryPakistani History

In the early 16In the early 16thth C. the Moguls, Muslims from central C. the Moguls, Muslims from central Asia (Kabul, Samarkand) conquered northern India Asia (Kabul, Samarkand) conquered northern India (Delhi) and established a Muslim empire there, in what (Delhi) and established a Muslim empire there, in what was, at the time, India. was, at the time, India. Moguls was a catch all group of descendants of the Mongols, Moguls was a catch all group of descendants of the Mongols,

Arabs and Central AsiansArabs and Central Asians Akbar the Great was the first Mogul ruler of Northern IndiaAkbar the Great was the first Mogul ruler of Northern India They built the Taj Mahal, the hanging gardens and other They built the Taj Mahal, the hanging gardens and other

wonders.wonders. They also built mosques on top of Hindu temples. Still a They also built mosques on top of Hindu temples. Still a

GREAT deal of resentment between Hindus and Muslims in GREAT deal of resentment between Hindus and Muslims in India and between India and Pakistan.India and between India and Pakistan.

Taj Mahal, built as Taj Mahal, built as mausoleum to Mogul leader mausoleum to Mogul leader Shah Jahan’s wife. ca 1631Shah Jahan’s wife. ca 1631

British RuleBritish Rule

The British Raj took over the region in the 18The British Raj took over the region in the 18thth and 19 and 19thth century. century. Became the Northern most frontier of the “Jewel of the Became the Northern most frontier of the “Jewel of the

Empire.”Empire.” Where the opium from Opium War came from.Where the opium from Opium War came from.

After World War II, Britain began to dismantle it’s After World War II, Britain began to dismantle it’s empire.empire. Imperialism was on the way outImperialism was on the way out Expensive to maintain.Expensive to maintain.

Great Britain gives up Great Britain gives up rule after WWIIrule after WWII

Wide scale fighting between Muslims and Wide scale fighting between Muslims and Hindus began after independence from Britain Hindus began after independence from Britain

Britain partition parts of Northern India into two Britain partition parts of Northern India into two separate states, India (Hindu, with 1 million separate states, India (Hindu, with 1 million Muslims) and Pakistan (99% Muslim).Muslims) and Pakistan (99% Muslim). Punjabi was divided into two partsPunjabi was divided into two parts..

The possession of the Northern state of The possession of the Northern state of Kashmir and Jammu, with a majority Muslim Kashmir and Jammu, with a majority Muslim population, but with Hindu leader has been population, but with Hindu leader has been hotly contested ever since.hotly contested ever since.

Since the partitionSince the partition

India and Pakistan have been at each others India and Pakistan have been at each others throats, mainly over Kashmir.throats, mainly over Kashmir.

Both India(1974s) and Pakistan(1980-90s) Both India(1974s) and Pakistan(1980-90s) developed nuclear weapons.developed nuclear weapons.

Many believe the next nuclear war will be Many believe the next nuclear war will be between these two nations.between these two nations.

Whenever discussing Pakistan, remember that Whenever discussing Pakistan, remember that India, not the Taliban, are their true enemy and India, not the Taliban, are their true enemy and who they worry about.who they worry about.

Inidian Pakistani conflictInidian Pakistani conflict

Wars:Wars: 19471947 19651965 1971 (after which India gets the bomb)1971 (after which India gets the bomb) Clashes: 84, 85, 87, 95 (Pakistan builds its (Sunni) Islamic Clashes: 84, 85, 87, 95 (Pakistan builds its (Sunni) Islamic

BombBomb 19991999 2001: after Pakistani extremist took over Indian Parliament, 2001: after Pakistani extremist took over Indian Parliament,

with help of ISI, 500K Indian troops massed on border.with help of ISI, 500K Indian troops massed on border. If nukes launched 12 million would have died immediately, many If nukes launched 12 million would have died immediately, many

more from radiation.more from radiation. Pakistan could not win without nukes.Pakistan could not win without nukes.

Pakistan and KashmirPakistan and Kashmir

This is the big internal issue in Pakistan.This is the big internal issue in Pakistan. The security forces, The security forces, the ISI,the ISI, trained trained

Pakistani fundamentalists for attacks in Pakistani fundamentalists for attacks in India and Kashmir, attempting to emulate India and Kashmir, attempting to emulate Afghan success against the Soviets.Afghan success against the Soviets.

Punjabis are the largest ethnic group in Punjabis are the largest ethnic group in Pakistan and the majority in Kashmir.Pakistan and the majority in Kashmir.

A.Q. Khan A.Q. Khan

Was the father of Pakistan’s nuclear program, some feel just a Was the father of Pakistan’s nuclear program, some feel just a publicity hound.publicity hound.

Stole most of his knowledge when working in Dutch nuclear Stole most of his knowledge when working in Dutch nuclear industryindustry

Khan confessed to selling nuclear secrets to Iraq, Libya, Iran Khan confessed to selling nuclear secrets to Iraq, Libya, Iran (Shiite bomb) and North Korea(Shiite bomb) and North Korea

He was released from jail in 2009.He was released from jail in 2009. He is a national hero in PakistanHe is a national hero in Pakistan

KahnKahn

Helped Iran develop a Shiite bomb.Helped Iran develop a Shiite bomb. Wanted to support his opulent lifestyle.Wanted to support his opulent lifestyle. After we were forced to cut of military aid After we were forced to cut of military aid

once we knew they had the bomb, they once we knew they had the bomb, they looked elsewhere for money, and all they looked elsewhere for money, and all they really had to sell was their nuclear really had to sell was their nuclear technology.technology.

U.S. Policy: a historyU.S. Policy: a history

Remember: From 1948 to 1990 all U.S. Remember: From 1948 to 1990 all U.S. foreign policy was about the Cold War foreign policy was about the Cold War “containment policy” of Truman.“containment policy” of Truman. Containing the Soviet Union where ever they Containing the Soviet Union where ever they

went. Andwent. And

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD): if Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD): if two competing countries each had the two competing countries each had the bomb, then no war would occur. bomb, then no war would occur.


India in the 70s was a leader of non-aligned India in the 70s was a leader of non-aligned countries.countries.

They fought skirmishes with China over They fought skirmishes with China over Kashmir interests and flirted with the Soviets Kashmir interests and flirted with the Soviets for protection.for protection.

The U.S. allied itself with Pakistan as “our boy” The U.S. allied itself with Pakistan as “our boy” in the region and supplied them with weapons.in the region and supplied them with weapons.

The U.S. had to certified countries as nuclear The U.S. had to certified countries as nuclear weapon free to continue sending weaponry by weapon free to continue sending weaponry by U.S. law.U.S. law.

Pakistan Humiliated in 1971 Pakistan Humiliated in 1971 War with India.War with India.


OPEC oil embargo of 73 made U.S. more OPEC oil embargo of 73 made U.S. more aware of Middle East oil.aware of Middle East oil.

The Shah of Iran falls to The Shah of Iran falls to Ayatollah KhomeniAyatollah Khomeni

19791979

In 1979, the Iranian Revolution gave In 1979, the Iranian Revolution gave Shiite Clerics control of 4Shiite Clerics control of 4thth leading oil leading oil producer.producer.

1979 Soviets invaded Afghanistan.1979 Soviets invaded Afghanistan. Pakistan was our dog in the hunt.Pakistan was our dog in the hunt.


1980 Regan elected and brought with him Cheney 1980 Regan elected and brought with him Cheney (leader in house), Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz and Gates (leader in house), Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz and Gates (CIA). ((CIA). ( The same group that helped Iran get nuclear materials during The same group that helped Iran get nuclear materials during

the Shah and Gerald Ford’s administration, architects of our the Shah and Gerald Ford’s administration, architects of our Iraq war.Iraq war.

They wanted to help arm Pakistan as ally against They wanted to help arm Pakistan as ally against Soviets in Afghanistan.Soviets in Afghanistan. Had to certify them as nuclear free.Had to certify them as nuclear free. Took a blind eye to nuclear bomb development of AQ Khan.Took a blind eye to nuclear bomb development of AQ Khan. Intelligence knew that Pakistan had bomb.Intelligence knew that Pakistan had bomb.

““Good Time” Charlie Good Time” Charlie WilsonWilson

In 1980-1988In 1980-1988

Saddam Hussein and Iraq invades Iran, Saddam Hussein and Iraq invades Iran, thinking that the Ayatollah’s regime was weak.thinking that the Ayatollah’s regime was weak.

The U.S. sells arms and trains the Iraqi army.The U.S. sells arms and trains the Iraqi army. War drags on for ten years, million plus die, War drags on for ten years, million plus die,

ends in a stalemate.ends in a stalemate. Saddam kills Kurdish and Shiite Iraqi civilian Saddam kills Kurdish and Shiite Iraqi civilian

with poison gasses and helicopter gunships.with poison gasses and helicopter gunships.

Iran Iraq War.Iran Iraq War.


Pakistan developed the bomb during the Pakistan developed the bomb during the mid-1980s, date on when they actually mid-1980s, date on when they actually had it unclear.had it unclear.

Benazhir Bhutto: Benazhir Bhutto: Wife of ZardariWife of Zardari

In one incident, Benzair Bhutto, the Prime Minister In one incident, Benzair Bhutto, the Prime Minister (1988-1996) didn’t know they had a bomb, but our CIA (1988-1996) didn’t know they had a bomb, but our CIA did.did.

The “in crowd”, used Bhutto’s assurances, not the The “in crowd”, used Bhutto’s assurances, not the intelligence they had, to certify Pakistan nuclear free, intelligence they had, to certify Pakistan nuclear free, so they could continue to sell arms to them.so they could continue to sell arms to them.

Besides, MAD was the optimum deterrent.Besides, MAD was the optimum deterrent. Bhutto also was told about a nuclear cooperation deal Bhutto also was told about a nuclear cooperation deal

with Iran, but an Iranian who assumed she knew about with Iran, but an Iranian who assumed she knew about it. She didn’t.it. She didn’t.

1990 The First Gulf War1990 The First Gulf War

Saddam Hussein and Iraq invades Saddam Hussein and Iraq invades Kuwait, whom he claimed should have Kuwait, whom he claimed should have been an Iraqi province.been an Iraqi province.

His troops line up on the Saudi borderHis troops line up on the Saudi border Our fear was that he would take both oil Our fear was that he would take both oil

producing countries.producing countries. He was broke after Iran Iraq War.He was broke after Iran Iraq War.

11stst World Trade Center World Trade Center Bombing 1993Bombing 1993

Ramzi Yousef and his gang, including a Ramzi Yousef and his gang, including a Pakistani National, attempt to blow up Pakistani National, attempt to blow up WTC with a car bomb in the Garage.WTC with a car bomb in the Garage. Funded by Khalid Sheik Mohammed, Funded by Khalid Sheik Mohammed,

admitted to masteminding 9-11 attacks eight admitted to masteminding 9-11 attacks eight years later.years later.

The guy we waterboarded 186 times in a The guy we waterboarded 186 times in a month, Yousef had attended Al Qaeda month, Yousef had attended Al Qaeda Training camps in Afghanistan.Training camps in Afghanistan.

In 1998, In 1998, MusharrafMusharraf deposes deposes Bhutto under cloud of her Bhutto under cloud of her husband’s corruption. The husband’s corruption. The husband, Asif Zardari is the husband, Asif Zardari is the current P.M. current P.M.

Cruise Missile attacksCruise Missile attacks

In 1998, Al Qaeda bombs U.S. embassy In 1998, Al Qaeda bombs U.S. embassy in Kenya, killing mostly Kenyans.in Kenya, killing mostly Kenyans.

Clinton order Cruise missile attacks on Al Clinton order Cruise missile attacks on Al Qaeda camps in Sudan and Afghanistan. Qaeda camps in Sudan and Afghanistan. Osama Bin Ladin escapes.Osama Bin Ladin escapes.


Bhutto Deposed by Musharraf after Gulf War and ruled Bhutto Deposed by Musharraf after Gulf War and ruled until recently. 1998-2007.until recently. 1998-2007.

Bhutto came back to run for Prime Minister after we Bhutto came back to run for Prime Minister after we pressured Musharraf to step down.pressured Musharraf to step down.

She was assassinated by Islamic Extremists, likely in She was assassinated by Islamic Extremists, likely in cahoots with ISI.cahoots with ISI.

Extremist attack Mumbai hotel and several other Extremist attack Mumbai hotel and several other targets, killing 164.targets, killing 164.

Turn away if easily disturbed.Turn away if easily disturbed. Musharraf has recently formed a political party, Musharraf has recently formed a political party,

probably backed by military, and is going to run against probably backed by military, and is going to run against Zardari.Zardari.

Bhutto assassinationBhutto assassination

The assasinationThe assasination

The assassins got right up next to her, The assassins got right up next to her, even though security knew her life was even though security knew her life was threatened.threatened.

Some suspect that the ISI was behind Some suspect that the ISI was behind the assassination or at least knew about the assassination or at least knew about it.it.

Zadari her corrupt Zadari her corrupt husband, wins electionhusband, wins election

U.S. AidU.S. Aid

In October, Obama asked for and got 7 Billion In October, Obama asked for and got 7 Billion in aid.in aid.

Pakistan didn’t began attack in Waziristan until Pakistan didn’t began attack in Waziristan until that money was approved.that money was approved.

Much of the 45 Billion we’ve given Pakistan Much of the 45 Billion we’ve given Pakistan since partition is unaccounted for.since partition is unaccounted for.

Some believe money given to fight extremist Some believe money given to fight extremist has been diverted for anti Indian defense.has been diverted for anti Indian defense.

Big IssuesBig Issues

EconomyEconomy Relations with India/KashmirRelations with India/Kashmir Threat of Taliban from West, America’s Threat of Taliban from West, America’s

interest.interest. Loose Nukes, securing the nukes in case of Loose Nukes, securing the nukes in case of

fundamentalists take over. American military fundamentalists take over. American military and Pakistani military believe they are secured.and Pakistani military believe they are secured.

Government instability.Government instability.

Under the British RajUnder the British Raj

Disputed areasDisputed areas

Disputed Area: Jammu Disputed Area: Jammu and Kashmirand Kashmir

Nuclear WarNuclear War

Currently Pakistan controls 1/3 of disputed area and India ½. The Currently Pakistan controls 1/3 of disputed area and India ½. The rest is divide by line of control established as a cease fire zone in rest is divide by line of control established as a cease fire zone in 1965, hotly contested. (China controls parts of the North eastern 1965, hotly contested. (China controls parts of the North eastern region.) (3 NUCLEAR armed states and a disputed area.)region.) (3 NUCLEAR armed states and a disputed area.)

Wars fought:Wars fought: 1947: borders established then1947: borders established then 1965: UN controlled area1965: UN controlled area 19711971 Several incidents in the 1980sSeveral incidents in the 1980s 2001-2002: standoff with both sides amassing troops on borders.2001-2002: standoff with both sides amassing troops on borders. Many feel this is the mostly likely place of the next NUCLEAR WAR.Many feel this is the mostly likely place of the next NUCLEAR WAR.

Mumbai bombing.Mumbai bombing.PicsPics::

Lashkar-e-Taiba is responsible for attack. Lashkar-e-Taiba is responsible for attack. They are a Islamic radical group They are a Islamic radical group stationed in Kashmir. stationed in Kashmir.

Leader of group placed in loose house Leader of group placed in loose house arrest and was subsequently released, arrest and was subsequently released, after India had provided Pakistan with after India had provided Pakistan with evidence of his involvement in Mumbai evidence of his involvement in Mumbai attack.attack.

Much of western Pakistan Much of western Pakistan are “federally are “federally administered” tribal administered” tribal regions.regions.

Thorny issuesThorny issues

Pakistan’s biggest enemy is Hindu India, not Islamic Pakistan’s biggest enemy is Hindu India, not Islamic extremist. The secret service of Pakistan has deep extremist. The secret service of Pakistan has deep connections inside those groups.connections inside those groups.

Pakistan has been more worried about a pincer attack Pakistan has been more worried about a pincer attack if Taliban unites with India, than the extremists.if Taliban unites with India, than the extremists.

But the U.S. is a major donor to Pakistan and has to But the U.S. is a major donor to Pakistan and has to walk the fine line between U.S. support and seeming walk the fine line between U.S. support and seeming the patsy of the U.S.the patsy of the U.S.

India showed great restraint after Mumbai, probably India showed great restraint after Mumbai, probably under U.S. pressure.under U.S. pressure.

Skiing in SwatSkiing in Swat

Taliban moves into SwatTaliban moves into Swat

During the summer, Taliban fighters During the summer, Taliban fighters driven from Afghanistan by U.S. made a driven from Afghanistan by U.S. made a major move into previously government major move into previously government controlled territory.controlled territory.

Demanded and got Shariah law in areas Demanded and got Shariah law in areas formally under govt. control.formally under govt. control.

People welcomed to a great extent People welcomed to a great extent because of corruption in govt courtsbecause of corruption in govt courts

Taliban into Swat.Taliban into Swat.

However, residents found out Taliban However, residents found out Taliban Shariah law was not benign and people Shariah law was not benign and people were summarily beaten and executed were summarily beaten and executed and a million or so fled to internally and a million or so fled to internally displaced person camps, with little displaced person camps, with little support from government.support from government.

They are now being FORCED to return, They are now being FORCED to return, and so may the Taliban.and so may the Taliban.

Testy things to knowTesty things to know

Pakistan is very poor and Pakistan is very poor and A very religious Muslim (not Arab country)A very religious Muslim (not Arab country) Pakistan is nuclear armed.Pakistan is nuclear armed. Pakistan’s real enemy is India and has fought Pakistan’s real enemy is India and has fought

several wars over the years, one near nuclear.several wars over the years, one near nuclear. Pakistan has trained and used Islamic Pakistan has trained and used Islamic

fundamentalists over the years to fight India fundamentalists over the years to fight India and in Kashmir.and in Kashmir.

Things to know for testThings to know for test

Like Afghanistan, they have many ethnic and language Like Afghanistan, they have many ethnic and language groups. groups.

Punjabi is the dominate ethnic groups, sharing power Punjabi is the dominate ethnic groups, sharing power with a couple of others. with a couple of others. There is a split In power between ethnic groups.There is a split In power between ethnic groups.

Like Afghanistan, their government is notoriously Like Afghanistan, their government is notoriously corrupt.corrupt.

Unlike Afghanistan, Unlike Afghanistan, Their government is powerful though the military, courts and Their government is powerful though the military, courts and

ISI.ISI. Internal power struggles among the ruling elite are common.Internal power struggles among the ruling elite are common.

Last summer, Taliban from the mountains of Last summer, Taliban from the mountains of Waziristan and other Tribal areas, moved into Waziristan and other Tribal areas, moved into greater Pakistan and took over large areas greater Pakistan and took over large areas including the SWAT valley.including the SWAT valley.

The government turned a blind eye, as the The government turned a blind eye, as the Sharia law was implemented over the Pakistani Sharia law was implemented over the Pakistani courts.courts.

The more they were given, the more they tried The more they were given, the more they tried to take, eventually threatening the state itself.to take, eventually threatening the state itself.

Test ItemsTest Items

Currently, the Pakistani army has moved Currently, the Pakistani army has moved into Waziristan taking over the tribal into Waziristan taking over the tribal village of the Mehsud’s, the Pakistani village of the Mehsud’s, the Pakistani Taliban.Taliban.

Tensions still remain high between Tensions still remain high between Pakistan and India over Kashmir and the Pakistan and India over Kashmir and the hostage taking and murders in the hostage taking and murders in the Mumbai attacks.Mumbai attacks.

The U.S. is Pakistan’s main economic and The U.S. is Pakistan’s main economic and military benefactor, selling them arms and military benefactor, selling them arms and giving them tons of money in humanitarian and giving them tons of money in humanitarian and domestic aid.domestic aid.

The Pakistani government has to walk a fine The Pakistani government has to walk a fine line between keeping the U.S. happy and not line between keeping the U.S. happy and not looking like a stooge of the U.S. There is looking like a stooge of the U.S. There is widespread dislike of the American government widespread dislike of the American government in this VERY conservative Islamic country.in this VERY conservative Islamic country.

Documents

Pakistan: The Sunni Bomb.. Yousaf Gilani Prime Minister