Pakistan: Can Civil Society Create a Stable,

Prosperous Future?

Speakers

Tahir Andrabi, Professor of Economics, Pomona College; Director of Social Policy, Center for

Economic Research, Pakistan

Ishrat Husain, Dean and Director, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi

Ahsan Jamil, CEO, The Aman Foundation

Frederic Sicre, Partner, Abraaj Capital

Moderator

James Glassman, Founding Executive Director, George W. Bush Institute

Pakistan in a snapshot

• Total population - ranks 6th among 238 economies (2012)

• Population growth - 1.8% annually (2010)

• Arable land (percent of land area) - 26.5% (2009)

• Life expectancy at birth - 65 years (2010)

• Literacy rate (percent of people ages 15 and above) - 56% (2008)

• Improved sanitation facilities (percent of population with access) - 48% (2010)

• Religion - Muslim (official): 95% (Sunni 75%, Shia 20%), Other (includes Christian and

Hindu): 5%

Sources: CIA World Factbook, 2012, World Bank, 2012.

GDP growth in Pakistan

GDP growth in Pakistan had been higher than the world before

the global financial crisis

Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2012.

Note: Projection is shaded.

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Percent

Pakistan

World

Natural resources rents in Pakistan

Total natural resources rents in Pakistan surpassed the

world average

Source: World Bank, April 2012.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Percent of GDP

Pakistan

U.S.

World

Market capitalization in Pakistan

Market capitalization of listed companies has been growing since 2008

Source: World Bank, April 2012.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

US$ billions

Current US$ billions (left axis) Percent of GDP (right axis)

Percent

Stock market in Pakistan

Pakistan stock market is more synchronized with the U.S. in

recent years

Source: Bloomberg, April 2012.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Index KSE 100 index (left axis) S&P 500 index (right axis)Index

Foreign direct investment, net inflows

FDI inflows in Pakistan reached high between 2006 and

2008

Source: World Bank, April 2012.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Percent of GDP

World

Pakistan

U.S.

Current account in Pakistan

Pakistan ‘s current account deficit has been decreasing in

recent years

Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2012.

Note: Projection is shaded.

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Percent of GDP

Total investment in Pakistan

There is room for Pakistan to improve in its investment

Source: World Economic Outlook, September 2011.

Note: Projection is shaded.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Percent of GDP

Pakistan

India

China

Inflation in Pakistan

Inflation in percent change is way above the world average

Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2012.

Note: Projection is shaded.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Percent

Pakistan

World

Central bank discount rate in Pakistan

Pakistan has higher discount rate than the U.S.

Source: International Financial Statistics, April 2012.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Percent

Pakistan

U.S.

Domestic credit in Pakistan

Domestic credit provided by banking sector in Pakistan is

relatively low

Source: World Bank, April 2012.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Percent of GDP

World

Pakistan

U.S.

Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) in Pakistan

The CPI score in Pakistan ranked 143 among 178 economies in 2010

Rank Country CPI Score

1 Denmark 9.3

1 New Zealand 9.3

1 Singapore 9.3

4 Finland 9.2

4 Sweden 9.2

… … …

17 Japan 7.8

22 United States 6.9

78 China 3.5

87 India 3.3

143 Pakistan 2.3

178 Somalia 1.1

CPI score: 10 - low corruption; 0 - high corruption

Source: Transparency International, April 2012.

Ease of doing business index

Pakistan ranked 105 in 2012 among 183 economies in the world

Rank Economy

1 Singapore

2 Hong Kong

3 New Zealand

4 United States

5 Denmark

… …

20 Japan

91 China

105 Pakistan

132 India

183 Chad

Source: World Bank, April 2012.

1= most business friendly regulations

Top 4 categories that

Pakistan has big room

to improve its rank:

Getting electricity

Paying taxes

Enforcing contracts

Registering property

Military expenditures in Pakistan have been

decreasing

Source: World Bank, April 2012.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Percent of GDP

Pakistan

World

Ahsan Jamil

CEO, The Aman Foundation

Pakistan: myths vs. reality

• Poor Country

• Religious Fanaticism is Popular

• Indian Enmity

• Blessed with huge natural resources

• Religious parties have never gotten more

than 5% votes

• Greater cultural commonality with excellent

people to people relations

Myth Fact

Government Military

Civil Society

Pakistani power structure

Benazir Bhutto

First Muslim State Woman

Prime Minister at age of 36

Sharmeen Chinoy

Academy Award & Emmy

Award documentary

filmmaker

Fatima Jinnah Leading Woman Activist

“Mother of the Nation”

Naseem Hameed

SAF Gold Medalist

South Asia’s Fastest

Woman (2010)

Pakistani women achievers

Aman Foundation

Education Eco-System Health Eco-System

Annual

Loss >

Floods

Teach for Pakistan

Vocational

Excellence

Entrepreneurship Sports

Culture 40% Diseases

are

Preventable

Tele Health

Community Health

Workers

Mother & Child

Clinics

Mental

Health

Ambulance

People to people diplomacy Solution

Pakistan Rest of the World

Government Military

Civil Society

Government Military

Civil Society

. .