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PACING UP: ASSESSING THE PHILIPPINES’ PROGRESS ALONG WITH THE ASEAN NEIGHBORS

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The ASEAN Advantage

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was established to accelerate economic growth, social progress, and cultural development in the region. From the original five founding countries, the community today consists of a 10-nation bloc that includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines.1

The move toward integration began in 2003, when ASEAN

leaders resolved to form an ASEAN Community by 2020, mainly driven by an ambitious economic agenda. In 2007, this commit-

The AEC Blueprint, signed during the 13th ASEAN Summit in 2007, laid out a number of pro-grams and activities, grouped into four major pil-lars: (1) a single market and production base, (2) competitive economic region, (3) equitable eco-nomic development, and (4) integration into the global economy. Under each pillar are economic measures to further ASEAN’s goals. An AEC Score-card was also developed to monitor gaps, chal-lenges, progress, and, ultimately, implementation.

PACING UP: ASSESSING THE PHILIPPINES’ PROGRESS ALONG WITH THE ASEAN NEIGHBORS

ment to integration was accelerated with a vow to establish a Euro-pean Union-style “ASEAN Economic Community” (AEC) by 2015.

The AEC is but one element of the proposed ASEAN Community, along with the ASEAN Security Community and ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community. However, the AEC has emerged as the top priority of member-states because it leverages on the power of ASEAN as a market, which, at over 600 million consumers, is equivalent to 9 per cent of the world’s total population. The establishment of the ASEAN Community also means significant regional influence2 vis-à-vis its neighbors such as China, Japan, and South Korea, as well as the United States and the EU.

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Nowhere to Gobut Forward. The remaining challenge for the Philippines is to institutionalize and sustain the policy reforms and good governance practices that have been initiated by the current president

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CONTENTSJune

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The ASEANAdvantage. ASEAN leaders resolved to form an ASEAN Community by 2020, this commitment to integration was accelerated with a vow to establish a European Union-style “ASEAN Economic Community” (AEC) by 2015.

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First Pillar: SIngle Market and Production Base. Notable progress has been made on the first pillar—developing a single market and production base. Since 2007, tariffs have been substan-tially reduced.

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Second Pillar: Competitive Economic Region.The Philippines’ improved competitive ranking may mean that it is more open for business than it was before.

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Third Pillar:Equitable Economic Development. The Philippines’ is struggling to fulfill the equitable economic development pillar, with the level of inequality remaining high compared to the rest of ASEAN.

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Taking FullAdvantage of AEC. The integration of ASEAN member-countries has been peddled as something that would propel the region into a significant economic bloc

page 4AEC: The Emerging Reality of a Borderless Community

First Pillar: Single Market and Production Base

Notable progress has been made on the first pillar—developing a single market and production base. Since 2007, tariffs have been substantially reduced, with more than 70 per cent of intra-regional trade in ASEAN enjoying zero tariffs, and less than 5 per cent of goods subjected more than 10 per cent. These reduced tariffs are meant to encourage intra-ASEAN trade in manufacturing and agricultural goods.

Trade-enabling pillars such as market access, border administration, infrastructure and operat-ing environment were recognized in the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) most recent Global En-abling Trade Report (GETR). The report built its assessment based on the extent to which economies have in place terms of institutions, policies, infrastructures and services that facilitate the free flow of goods over borders.

Globally, Singapore scored the highest, followed by Hong Kong, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Finland, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Chile, Sweden and Germany. The Philippines came in at 64th, which the report said was already a significant improvement considering its previous place-ments, 72nd in 2012 and 92nd in 2010. Even so, among ASEAN countries included in the index, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia all ranked higher than the Philippines in the report. (See table 1).

According to the report, while the Philippines did well on the domestic (19th out of 138) and foreign (26th) market access pillars, improvements were needed in the other five pillars of the index, in which the Philippines ranked in the bottom half.

Worst was its ranking on the availability and quality of transport infrastructure pillar (96th), which rated the quality of railroad infrastructure (81st), paved roads (91st), air transport infrastruc-ture (105th) and port infrastructure (107th), among other indicators.

The availability and quality of associated logistics servi-ces also remain largely insufficient (84th). These include high costs or delays caused by domestic transportation, access to imported inputs at competitive prices, non-com-pliance to technical requirements and standards abroad, identifying potential markets and buyers, and difficulties in meeting quality/quantity requirements of buyers.

The Philippines also came in in the lower half of the in-dex when it came to efficiency and transparency of border administration (71st), due to corruption and red tape, two factors that contribute to the weakening of the general op-erating environment (82nd).

Second Pillar: Competitive Economic Region

Modest achievements were also made towards the de-velopment of a competitive economic region.

Among the highlights are the adoption of the ASEAN Intellectual Property Rights Action Plan 2011–2015, which strengthens intellectual property institutions in the region; the adoption of the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity, to enhance the region’s transport connectivity and energy security; and the implementation of the ASEAN Strategic Action Plan for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise (SME) Development, which aims to facilitate inclusive growth by

Source: World Economic Forum, Global Enabling Trade Report 2014

Table 1: WEF Enabling Trade Index Rankings 2014

The Philippines’ improved competitive ranking may mean that it is more open for business than it was before. However, compared to its ASEAN neighbors, and, more significantly withthe rest of the world,

THERE IS MUCH WORK TO BE DONE

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giving guidance on the flagship projects and other SME initiatives in the region.

The WEF’s Global Competitiveness Report emphasized on the fundamental aspects of competitiveness measured macroeconomic environment, institutions, good market efficiency, and innovation. For the sixth straight year, Switzerland remained the most competi-tive in the world, followed by Singapore, the United States, Finland, Germany, Japan, Hong Kong, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Sweden.

Globally, the Philippines ranked 52nd out of 144 economies. While among ASEAN countries Singapore (2nd) was the most competitive in the region, followed by Malaysia (20th), Thailand (31st) and In-donesia (34th). Behind the Philippines were Vietnam (68th), Laos (93rd), Cambodia (95th), and Myanmar (134th).

competitiveeconomic region

Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report (2014-2015)

Table 2: The Global Competitiveness Index and Rankings (2013-2014 and 2014-2015)

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The report noted the Philippines’ improvements on several indica-tors. The Philippines made significant strides in terms technological adoption, rising eight notches to 69th place, closely following Ma-laysia (60th) and Thailand (65th). It also improved in terms of ethics and corruption, moving up from 135th in 2010 to 81st this year. It also improved in government efficiency (69th) and the protection of property rights (63rd).

The Philippines’ improved competitive ranking may mean that it is more open for business than it was before. However, compared to its ASEAN neighbors, and, more significantly with the rest of the world, there is much work to be done.

infrastructure & labor market

Furthermore, the Philippines still lagged in infrastructure, categorized as “poor” (91st), with its airport and seaport infrastructure ranked 108th and 101st, respectively.

The situation is just as worrisome in the labor market, as the country suffers from rigidities and inefficiencies. The report shows that the Philippines ranks a mediocre 91st in this dimension with almost no progress since 2010.

As a whole, the Emerging Asian economies (Southeast Asia, China and India) are expected to grow at a robust pace of 6.9 per cent per year from 2014 to 2018. This development in the medium term is anchored on a steady rise in domestic demand. (See Table 3). Real GDP growth in Emerging Asian economies is projected to be moderating gradually but remains robust over the 2014-18 period.3

Source: OECD Development Centers Medium-Term Projection Framework (MPF 2014)

Table 3: Real GDP Growth of Southeast Asia, China and India(Annual Percentage Change)

According to reports, the level of inequality in the Philippines

hardly changed for more than 20 yearsAccording to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), persistent levels of inequality remain in terms of income, land distribution, welfare, and human development.

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The GDP growth projections for individual countries reflect their different stages of development and medi-um-term growth drivers. Indonesia is projected to be the fastest-growing economy in the ASEAN-6, at an average annual growth rate of 6.0 per cent in 2014-18, followed by the Philippines, at 5.8 per cent.4

Labor markets in Emerging Asia are also expected to re-main relatively tight, which is seen to continue supporting growth in wages and private consumption.

These are very encouraging signs that the Philippines and the rest of ASEAN are starting to move in the right di-rection.

Third Pillar: Equitable Economic Development

The Philippines’ is struggling to fulfill the equitable economic development pillar, with the level of inequality remaining high compared to the rest of ASEAN.

According to reports, the level of inequality in the Phil-ippines hardly changed for more than 20 years. According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)5, persistent levels of inequality remain in terms of income, land distribution, welfare, and human development.

Many credit the Aquino administration’s thrust for good governance as one of the reasons behind the country’s re-cent economic growth. Yet while the country posts laudable macroeconomic numbers year after year under Aquino’s watch, the benefits seem to accrue to only a narrow seg-ment of society, and by some measures inequality has even worsened.

According to the ADB report, “Even if the Philippines continue to receive billion-dollar remittances from OFWs, income distribution remains to be a prevalent issue.” 6 It goes on to conclude that despite remittances, more than a third of the country’s total income goes to the richest 10 per cent of Filipino families.

Without proper policies in place, inequality and mar-ginalization will surely worsen. This was emphasized in a Stratbase Albert Del Rosario Institute (ARDi) publication, which predicts “the polarization of society and the creation of social tensions that would eventually undermine the pro-cess of growth and development.”

For so long as economic growth fails to reach the coun-tryside and the people, any figure heralding economic

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achievement would be half-truth at best.Fourth Pillar: Integration into a Global Economy

There is slow yet steady progress in terms of integration to the global economy, with incremental advancements towards liberalizing investment and capital flows in the Philippines.

ASEAN has emerged as the hub of free trade agree-ment (FTA) activity in Asia and plays a leadership role in negotiating trade rules for connecting Asia. FTAs have been concluded with ASEAN’s six dialogue partners: Australia, the People’s Republic of China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and New Zealand.

However, if the Philippines is to take full advantage of the opportunities of an integrated AEC, it must first align its domestic laws and regulations with ASEAN commitments. To promote the Philippines as an investment destination and facilitate the entry of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI), the country must bring its policy on foreign ownership to global standards.

In a speech, Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario said that the Philippines opened its doors to international investors but has kept a restrictive business climate. Cit-ing a provision in the 1987 Constitution limiting foreign ownership of companies in the Philippines to 40 per cent, Sec. del Rosario said that the “Philippines is constrained by Constitutional and statutory economic restrictions on for-eign ownership and has maintained a conservatively open investment milieu.” He added that “there may be a need to evaluate existing statutory economic parameters as the Philippines further redefines its international economic policy.” 7

Taking Full Advantage of AEC

The integration of ASEAN member-countries has been peddled as something that would propel the region into a significant economic bloc—a vehicle of growth that would help each market achieve its own development goals. Con-versely, many of the remaining challenges to realizing the AEC goals are tied to ASEAN’s ability to harness coopera-tion and commitment, and address the development divide among its members in time for its December 2015 deadline.

The AEC project has been crucial in moving ASEAN from its beginnings as a political grouping in 1967 to becoming one of the most dynamic regional economic blocs in the developing world. The solidarity and enthusiasm shown by ASEAN members in trying to meet the AEC goals are notable.

The Philippines is already primed to offer a robust invest-ment climate. It has a large market, skilled human capital, youthful population, and strategic location that connects population centers across Asia. Yet FDI remains low relative to its ASEAN neighbors. One of the steps it could take is to harness existing trade agreements.

Harness Trade Agreements

The ASEAN free trade expands the potentials for more trade among member countries. It also enhances the competition among the traders and producers within the region, effectively bringing benefits to all its members; however such benefits will not be uniform among them.

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and to the creation of much-needed jobs. FDI also assists the integration into global supply chains, improves export competitiveness by exposing local firms to foreign tech-nologies, and increases economic growth.8

Additionally, the lack of a central body to coordinate investment promotion agencies creates confusion for pro-spective investors. Existing enterprises also face high costs of doing business owing to poor infrastructure, high cost and irregular supply of power, insecure property rights, inconsistent tariff and nontariff barriers, and policy incon-sistency.9

Of course foreign ownership restrictions are not solely the cause of low FDI into the Philippines. The worsening port and road congestion and looming power shortages in 2015 underscore the need to urgently raise investments. Due in part to these factors, the Philippine has lagged behind Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and Viet-nam in terms of FDI. (See Table 4).

Essential reforms include crafting and implementing a clear competition policy, liberalizing key sectors of the economy to directly benefit poor Filipinos, and opening up the economy to more foreign competition.10

Countries seek to attract FDI because of the potential benefits it brings: financial resources, technology transfer, employment creation, and increased competition. These factors lead to improved goods and services, export mar-kets, and networks for sales, procurement, and informa-

While we will need to increase our trade with our ASEAN neighbours as a consequence of the free trade principle, our industries also need to create a deeper integration within the economy.

Our Philippine Export Processing Authority (PEZA) in-dustries which export to the world, including other ASEAN countries, are essentially import dependent enterprises for their raw materials. There is little integration of their require-ments with domestic supplies and even less integration of their manufacturing operations with domestic industries.

According to economist Gerardo Sicat,” The obvious solu-tion to this is to reform Board of Investments (BOI) policies to allow greater participation of foreign capital in the indus-tries designed to serve the domestic market.” He believes that this will create pressure on competition for domestic firms. It will further deepen the operations of PEZA firms with the local economy and raise the domestic value added of their exports.

To reform BOI policies much more effectively requires the relaxation of many provisions of industrial policies regarding the economic restrictions to foreign capital, including those provided in the Constitution.

Amend the Constitutional Limit on Foreign Ownership

The Philippine Constitution restricts foreign ownership in some industries and of property to 40 percent. By imposing restrictions on foreign ownership, the framers of the Con-stitution believed that they were protecting the country’s sovereignty from foreign encroachment. To them, imposing barriers on foreign trade and investments and prohibiting controlling property rights of foreign nationals would trans-late to domestic economic strength and independence

Despite good intent, an inherent flaw in the 1987 Philip-pine Constitution is in the integration of economic policies into its provisions. While the constitution embodies the fundamental law of the land and lays down principles and general guidelines, economic policy must be more spe-cific, changeable, and consists of programs that cater to the changing needs and challenges of market fluctuations.

In addition to constitutional restrictions, the Joint For-eign Chambers of Commerce of the Philippines (JFC) is also calling for a review of dozens of other restrictions on foreign equity and foreign professionals, as well as discriminatory taxes and fees, from which Filipinos but not foreigners are exempt. Reforming these policies would lead to more FDIs

tion. In short, FDI promotes economic growth by increas-ing the volume of investment and the efficiency of recipient countries.

However, Sicat believes that “those countries with the freest and most flexible policy mechanisms will gain the most, while those burdened with domestic restrictions will be slowed down by those restrictions since they could prevent or cause investments from happening.” Unless the limits on foreign ownership are relaxed the Philippines could still find itself left out of the lion’s share of FDI in re-gion, despite everything else being in place.

Recognizing the Comparative Advantage

Having competent labor force and favorable macroeco-nomic fundamentals, the country could entice more invest-ments when these could freely flow across countries in the region, particularly in the services sector, which enjoys continually growing foreign investments because of the skills of the country’s labor force and appropriate informa-tion and communication technology infrastructure.

The current growth drivers of the Philippines are the outsourcing industry and the strong and stable remit-tances of the OFWs. The positive demographic structure of the country will be an advantage. By next year, more than 50 per cent of our population will be within the working ages and more FDI inflows will surely boost employment opportunities for Filipinos.

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (2014)

Table 4:Foreign Direct Investments 2010-2014(in US Dollars)

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Economist Cielcito Habito believes that our labor pool has always driven the spectacular recent success of the BPO indus-try, where the initial moves began with the establishment of call centers. In this sector, fully-owned FDIs were encouraged to set up call centers and other BPO operations. Today, the country is at the forefront of the international BPO industry.

While there were more than a million jobs created last year, the quality of these jobs remains a challenge. Since AEC will pave the way for the free flow of skilled labor in certain profession, economist Epictetus Patalinghug believes that academe-industry collaboration in workforce development is still the key to be globally competitive and achieve economic gains.

Structuring the country’s manpower will prepare the middle-income type of industries because in the long run, these labor-intensive industries will eventually mature. Through this, an access to the global supply chain connectivity can also be developed.

Boost Government Public Spending

It is not only lack of capital that is determining foreign investments but it is also about the complimentary factors that would make that capital productive: infrastructure, institution, bureaucracy, labor policies. At the end of the day, it is about the ease and cost of doing business in the country.

Economic growth slowed down to 5.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2015 due to weak government spending on the demand side and agricultural production on the supply side.

Government consumption contracted by 2.6 per cent while infrastructure spending fell by 6.2 per cent. Contributing to weak government spending are the Supreme Court decision which found some provisions of the Disbursement Accelera-tion Program unconstitutional, budget execution bottlenecks, and slow disbursement for Typhoon Yolanda reconstruction.

“Investment in infrastructure will be crucial if Southeast Asia wants to capitalize on the imminent economic integration of the region,” Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima said. Without sustained investment in needed infrastructure, it is unlikely that the region would achieve its full potential and realize the opportunities of AEC.

The Philippines has much to gain by boosting spending on infrastructure. The lack of efficient infrastructure such as seaports and airports deprives the country in terms of physical connectivity among its ASEAN neighbors.

Even so, Sec. Purisima believes that the Philippines’ strong macroeconomic fundamentals and reform trajectory will al-low the country to reap its demographic dividend, to become a major player in an integrated ASEAN economy.

The ASEAN population is expected to expand and grow from 600 million to 700 million in 2030. The government has committed to bolster public infrastructure spending to 4 per cent of the country’s total economic output for this year in a bid to sustain economic growth. It intends to increase this figure further to 5 per cent by 2016.

Strengthen Governance

Governance, identified as one the Philippines’ weaknesses, plays an important role in the ASEAN Integration. Compared to previous administrations that have been associated with corruption and inept bureaucracies, the Aquino government has had relatively high satisfaction, performance and trust ratings.

Under Aquino’s watch, there has been a significantly changed perception of a more transparent government. The Philip-pines improved by 24 points in the most recent Transparency International Corruption Perception Index. However, Aquino’s term as President will be coming to an end in 2016, after which a new administration will commence carrying its own policies.

Inequality and tragic marginalization can worsen without the proper policies in place. Elected leaders must firmly hold the line against vested interests and political machinery that are poised to advance their position to the grave detriment of the majority.

A strong state, after all, requires strong leadership that upholds national interest and development above anything else. Policy-makers should need to develop policies for risk management such as adequate social insurance and social protection coverage. It is also important to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of these programs because if left unaddressed, income shocks may hamper the thrust for inclusive growth and for sustained prospects of the country’s development.11

Pressure the Sectors

The country has big investment opportunities in industries like retail trade, mining, and tourism – areas of investment that are largely untapped given the quantity of FDI seeking attractive international opportunities.

The Philippine economy is fuelled far more by domestic con-sumption than many of its ASEAN peers.12 In the first half of 2014, household consumption expenditure accounted for 73 percent of the country’s GDP, with the economy expanding by 6 per cent year-on-year. Cash remittances from OFWs and a booming BPO in-dustry support robust domestic consumption and a fast-expanding economy

The Mining industry is another area that promises to yield high investment returns. The Philippines is considered “to be the 5th most mineral-rich country in the world for gold, nickel, copper and chromite worth over $840 billion.” 13 Yet, due to a restrictive mining policy of the Aquino administration, the fate of the large scale min-ing industry is in limbo, while up to 90 percent of the country’s gold production is being illegally smuggled out by small scale miners.

The Philippines has a natural advantage in tourism as it sits at the center of the coral triangle endowed with the world’s most bio-diverse ecosystems. Since President Aquino’s administration, the Philippines has more than doubled tourist arrivals in the country. While this is a vast improvement, the Philippines (72nd) remains in the lower half of the WEF Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report, with ASEAN neighbours Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia all ranked higher than the Philippines. The report cited the Philippines inferior infrastructure (82nd) and “enabling envi-ronment” (90th) – within which health and hygiene, as well as, safety and security fall under- were its worst performing indices.

1 Cebu Declaration on the Acceleration of the Establishment of an ASEAN Community by 2015.

2 Narine, Shaun. “ASEAN in the 21st Centu-ry:askepticalreview” in Cambridge Review of Interna-tional Affairs, Vol. 22, No.3,September2009,pp369370., as cited in the Working Paper No. 13, April 2013, en-titled How should ASEAN engage the EU? Reflections on ASEAN”s external relations by Dr. Yeo Lay Hwee (EU Centre in Singapore). Retrieved from: http://www.eucentre.sg/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/WP13-ASEANEU.pdf

3 OECD Development Centre’s Medium-Term Projection Framework (MPF-2014) : the Econom-ic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2014. Retrieved from: www.oecd.org/site/seao/Pocket%20Edition%20SAEO2014.pdf

4 Ibid. 5 Asian Development Bank (2009). Poverty

in the Philippines: Causes, constrains and opportu-nities. Retrieved from: http://www.cebe.anu.edu.au/staff/info/mccaig/BBM_Vietnam_Inequality_Octo-ber_2009.pdf

6 Asian Development Bank. (2004). Income poverty and inequality in the Philippines. Retrieved from: www.adb.org

7 60-40 rule to blame for low foreign invest-

ments? (2012). Retrieved from: http://www.rappler.com/business/9774-60-40-rule-to-blame-for-low-foreign-investments

8 Page 70, East Asia and Pacific Economic

Update, April 2014, World Bank Publications pub-lished on May 13, 2014. Retrieved from: http://www.worldbank.org/en/region/eap/publication/east-asia-pacific-economic-update

9 Ibid. 10 Philippine Economic Update - January,

2015 Edition. Retrieved from: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/philippines/publication/philippine-economic-update-january-2015

11 SRI SPARK: Generating Investment and

“Right Governance” Volume 4, 4th Quarter

12 Philippine Retailer Plans $800 Million IPO. (2013). Wall Street Journal. Retrieved from: http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324659404578498282736286500.

13 Mines and Geosciences Bureau. Retrieved

from: www.mgb.gov.ph.

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endnotes

Nowhere to Go but Forward

The remaining challenge for the Philippines is to institutionalize and sustain the policy reforms and good governance practices that have been initiated by the current president. The realization of the AEC will provide both opportunities and challenges for the Philip-pines. But with the right policy stance and better coordination be-

tween the government and the private sector, challenges can be managed and opportunities can be exploited, specifically in the areas of cross-border trade, manufacturing linkages with regional production networks, supply chain connectivity, and people-to-people connectivity. These will help to increase competitiveness, promote international economic and security cooperation, enhance growth prospects with inclusiveness, attract investments, increase employment, and alleviate pov-erty. Through relevant economic and governance reforms the long stymied potential of the country can finally be released. But to do this the leadership must unite the country and start a new culture of achievement and competitiveness, a new culture that desires to move forward.

Stratbase ADRi Stratbase’s ADR Institute is an independent international and strategic research organization with the principal goal of addressing the issues affecting the Philippines and East Asia through:

1) effecting national, regional and international policy change or support;

2) fostering strategic ideas based on cooperation and innovative thinking;

3) providing a regional venue for collaboration and cooperation in dealing with critical issues in East Asia; and

4) actively participating in regional debates and global conversations.

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