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Pacific Panel
Major activities over the past year
• Panel meeting in Guayaquil, Ecuador, October 2010• International Workshop on ENSO, Decadal Variability and
Climate Change in South America, Guayaquil, Ecuador, October 2010
• SPCZ workshop, Aug 2010, Samoa Islands.• International workshop on North Pacific West Boundary
Current dynamics, May 2010, Qingdao• Workshop “New strategies for evaluating ENSO processes
in climate models”, Paris, France, November 2010• EGU ENSO sessions• Coordination of NPOCE, GAIA, ITF, OKMC, SPICE and
PCCSP, plus “MIXET”
Pacific panel
Major future plans/activities
• Indonesian Throughflow Task Team (jointly with IOP)
• Strengthen links and develop activities with PICES and other “green” programmes
• Development of several review papers (the South Pacific Convergence Zone, Intra-seasonal Oscillation, and WBCs’ response to global warming.
• Support for South America East Boundary Current research
• Continue coordination of major programs
Workshops/meetings planned
• ITF Task Team meeting, early 2012, Indonesia• 7th Pacific Panel meeting, 29 April – 01 May 2012
– Noumea, New Caledonia.• NPOCE open science meeting, early 2012.
Pacific Panel
Recent scientific highlights• J Climate paper “Wind effect on past and future sea level
trends in the Southern Indo-Pacific”• SPCZ and climate change• J Climate paper “
Impact of Decadal Pacific Oscillation on regional drought and flood” led to a Wall Street Journal opinion piece
• Climate dynamic paper “Impact of mean state climate change on ENSO flavours”
• Paper on ENSO instablitity analysis published. • Continuing work on “El Niño and Climate Change” after
Nature Geoscience paper.• NPOCE conducted its major (52-day long) investigation sur
vey to the Northwestern Pacific.
Detection: Ensemble Mean Std. Dev. 30-year NINO3
Natural variability5-95%tiles obs
obs
5-95%tiles of ensemble mean
Collins et al. 2011
As in Vincent et al 2010 but extending to 2008
EOF1
EO
F2
EOF 1, 48%
EOF 2, 16%
Applied to 24 CMIP3 models since 1950 PIC runs, only 11 models are able to produce
SST and Wind Projection in CMIP3
SST response to CO2 is Characterized by enhancedEquatorial warming Convergence of trades towards equator Ekman suction in South-Western Pacific
Timmermann et al. 2011
Regional % deviations relative to global mean sea rise (2001-2100) Regional % deviations relative to global mean sea rise (2001-2100)
IPCC
(200
7)
Rahmstorf (2007)
10% means delay by1 decade per century
Wind-induced deceleration of global mean sea level rise
Wind-induced acceleration of global mean sea level rise
(20-yr sliding frequency of CP El Nino (red sold line) and EP El Nino(black dashed line). 20-yr sliding frequency is defined by counting each El Nino event during the 20-yr period)
Changes in the number of EP and CP El Nino events
Choi et al. (2010)
CP El Nino
EP El Nino
TAO/TRITONITF MONITORING
OKMC
GAIA
NPOCE
Pacific climate change science
ProgrammePCCSP
Pacific Panel
Issues and challenges (for input to JSC)
Design and progress of NPOCE field experimentDesign and progress of NPOCE field experiment
Deployed moorings and buoy by IOCAS, OUC and KORDI
2 Chinese moorings deployed, 8 Argo floats and 30 ARGOs drifters released in Dec. 2010
2 Chinese moorings to be recovered and
replaced in Jun. 2011
NPOCE timeline (Hu et al., 2010, NPOCE Science/Implementation Plan)
POSEIDON Project Workshop, Oct. 2010,
Jeju, Korea
NPOCE Coordinating Meeting, Mar. 28,
2011, Busan, Korea
2 Japanese moorings to be deployed in
Aug. 2011
1 Korean buoy deployed in May
2010
NPOCE activities (2010-2011)NPOCE activities (2010-2011)
The first NPOCE cruise of ChinaThe first NPOCE cruise of China(November, 2010-January, 2011)(November, 2010-January, 2011)
Mooring(2)Argo(8)/Argos(30)
75kHz ADCPs + EvoLogics Acoustic Modem, 400 m
DVS700 m
1200 m5450 m
IXSEA 1500 mORE 5500 m
Ongoing experiments, Coral Sea Gliders(2005/06 and 2007/10)Gourdeau et al., 2008Kessler, Davis, GourdeauGBROOS: 2010-2011
XBT and Argo floats(2008-2011)Maes et al., submitted
Cruises Cruises SECALIS/SECARGOSECALIS/SECARGO ((2003-2010); 2003-2010); Gasparin et al. 2011Gasparin et al. 2011; ; Ganachaud et al., 2008Ganachaud et al., 2008
Cruise FLUSEC(2007)Maes et al., 2011
regional 1/12° Coral Sea ROMS Couvelard et al. (2008)regional 1/12° Solomon Sea ORCA Melet et al. (2010a, c)
Observations
Models:
2012
IMO
S
GBRO
OS
IMO
S
GBRO
OS