PA974-001 Monetary Policy & Financial Regulation in a ...mchinn/pa974_lec16_f10.pdf · PA974-001 Monetary Policy & Financial Regulation in a Globalized Economya Globalized Economy

PA974 001PA974-001Monetary Policy & Financial Regulation in

a Globalized Economya Globalized Economy

Lecture 16Lecture 16 27 October 2010

Instructor: Menzie ChinnFall 2010Fall 2010

Copyright © 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 9-2

Basic Banking—Cash Depositg p

First National Bank First National Bank

Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities

Vault +$100 Checkable +$100 Reserves +$100 Checkable +$100

O i f h ki t l d t

Vault Cash

+$100 Checkable deposits

+$100 Reserves +$100 Checkable deposits

+$100

• Opening of a checking account leads to an increase in the bank’s reserves equal to the increase in checkable depositsincrease in checkable deposits


Basic Banking—Check Depositg p

When a bank receivesFirst National Bank When a bank receivesadditional deposits, it

gains an equal amount of reserves;when it loses deposits

First National Bank

Assets Liabilities

Cash items in process

+$100 Checkabledeposits

+$100

when it loses deposits,it loses an equal amount of reserves

Fi t N ti l B k S d N ti l B k

in process of collection

deposits

First National Bank Second National Bank


Reserves +$100 Checkable +$100 Reserves -$100 Checkable -$100deposits deposits


Basic Banking—Making a Profitg g

First National Bank Second National BankFirst National Bank Second National Bank


Required reser es


+$100 Required reser es


+$100reserves deposits reserves deposits

Excess reserves

+$90 Loans +$90

• Asset transformation-selling liabilities with one set of characteristics and using the proceeds to buy assets with a different set of characteristics

• The bank borrows short and lends long


Bank Managementg

Li idit M t• Liquidity Management• Asset Management• Liability Management• Capital Adequacy Management• Capital Adequacy Management• Credit Risk• Interest-rate Risk


Liquidity Management: Ample Excess ReservesAmple Excess Reserves


Reserves $20M Deposits $100M Reserves $10M Deposits $90M

Loans $80M Bank Capital

$10M Loans $80M Bank Capital

$10M

Securities $10M Securities $10M

• If a bank has ample excess reserves, a deposit outflow does not necessitate changes gin other parts of its balance sheet


Liquidity Management: Shortfall in ReservesShortfall in Reserves


Reserves $10M Deposits $100M Reserves $0 Deposits $90M

Loans $90M Bank Capital

$10M Loans $90M Bank Capital

$10M

Securities $10M Securities $10M

• Reserves are a legal requirement and the shortfall must be eliminated

• Excess reserves are insurance against the costs associated with deposit outflows


p

Liquidity Management: Borrowingq y g g

Assets Liabilities

Reserves $9M Deposits $90M

Loans $90M Borrowing $9M

Securities $10M Bank Capital $10M

• Cost incurred is the interest rate paid on the borrowed funds


Liquidity Management: Securities SaleSecurities Sale

Assets Liabilities


Loans $90M Bank Capital $10M

Securities $1M

• The cost of selling securities is the brokerage and other transaction costs


Liquidity Management: Federal ReserveFederal Reserve

Assets Liabilities


Loans $90M Borrow from Fed $9M

Securities $10M Bank Capital $10M

• Borrowing from the Fed also incurs interest payments based on the discount ratep y


Liquidity Management: Reduce Loansq y g

Assets Liabilities


Loans $81M Bank Capital $10M

Securities $10M

• Reduction of loans is the most costly way of acquiring reserves

• Calling in loans antagonizes customers

• Other banks may only agree to purchase loans at a substantial discount


substantial discount

Asset Management: Three Goalsg

S k th hi h t ibl t• Seek the highest possible returns on loans and securities

• Reduce risk

H d t li idit• Have adequate liquidity


Asset Management: Four Toolsg

Find borrowers who will pay high• Find borrowers who will pay high interest rates and have low possibility of defaultingof defaulting

• Purchase securities with high returns d l i kand low risk

• Lower risk by diversifyingy y g

• Balance need for liquidity against increased returns from less liquid assets


increased returns from less liquid assets

Liability Managementy g

R t h d t i f• Recent phenomenon due to rise of money center banks

• Expansion of overnight loan markets and new financial instruments (such as (negotiable CDs)

Ch k bl d it h d d i• Checkable deposits have decreased in importance as source of bank funds


Capital Adequacy Managementp q y g

B k it l h l t b k f il• Bank capital helps prevent bank failure

• The amount of capital affects return for pthe owners (equity holders) of the bank

R l t i t• Regulatory requirement


Capital Adequacy Management: Preventing Bank Failure WhenPreventing Bank Failure When Assets Decline

High Bank Capital Low Bank Capital

Assets Liabilities Assets LiabilitiesReserves $10M Deposits $90M Reserves $10M Deposits $96M

Loans $90M Bank Capital $10M Loans $90M Bank Capital $4M

High Bank Capital Low Bank Capital

Assets Liabilities Assets LiabilitiesReserves $10M Deposits $90M Reserves $10M Deposits $96MReserves $10M Deposits $90M Reserves $10M Deposits $96M

Loans $85M Bank Capital $5M Loans $85M Bank Capital -$1M


Capital Adequacy Management: Returns to Equity HoldersReturns to Equity Holders

Return on Assets: net profit after taxes per dollar of assetsReturn on Assets: net profit after taxes per dollar of assets

ROA = net profit after taxesassets

Return on Equity: net profit after taxes per dollar of equity capitalReturn on Equity: net profit after taxes per dollar of equity capital

ROE = net profit after taxesequity capital

Relationship between ROA and ROE is expressed by theRelationship between ROA and ROE is expressed by theEquity Multiplier: the amount of assets per dollar of equity capital

EM = AssetsE it C it lEquity Capital

net profit after taxesequity capital

= net profit after taxesassets

× assetsequity capital


ROE = ROA × EM

Capital Adequacy Management: SafetyManagement: Safety

B fit th f b k b ki• Benefits the owners of a bank by making their investment safe

• Costly to owners of a bank because the higher the bank capital, the lower the return on equity

• Choice depends on the state of theChoice depends on the state of the economy and levels of confidence


Credit Risk: Overcoming Adverse Selection and Moral HazardSelection and Moral Hazard

• Screening and information collection• Screening and information collection

• Specialization in lending

• Monitoring and enforcement of restrictive covenants

• Long-term customer relationships

• Loan commitments

• Collateral and compensating balances

C dit ti iCopyright © 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 9-20

• Credit rationing

Interest-Rate Risk

First National BankFirst National Bank

Assets LiabilitiesRate-sensitive assets $20M Rate-sensitive liabilities $50M

V i bl t d h t t l V i bl t CDVariable-rate and short-term loans Variable-rate CDs

Short-term securities Money market deposit accounts

Fixed-rate assets $80M Fixed-rate liabilities $50MReserves Checkable depositsLong-term loans Savings depositsLong-term securities Long-term CDs

• If a bank has more rate-sensitive liabilities than assets, a rise in interest rates will reduce bank profits and a decline in interest

Equity capital


interest rates will reduce bank profits and a decline in interest rates will raise bank profits

Interest Rate Risk: Gap Analysisp y

Basic Gap Analysis:Basic Gap Analysis:

(rate-sensitive assets − rate sensitive liabilities)(rate sensitive assets rate sensitive liabilities)× Δ interest rates = Δ in bank profits

Maturity Bucket Approachmeasures the gap for several maturity subintervalsmeasures the gap for several maturity subintervals

Standardized Gap Analysisaccounts for differing degrees of rate sensitivity


ccou s o d e g deg ees o e se s v y

Interest Rate Risk: Duration Analysisy

Duration Analysis:Duration Analysis:

%Δ market value of security ≈%Δ market value of security−percentage point Δ interest rate × duration in years

Uses the weighted average duration of a financial institution's assets and of its liabilitiesa financial institution s assets and of its liabilities

to see how net worth responds to a change ininterest rates


interest rates

Off-Balance-Sheet Activities

Loan sales (secondary loan• Loan sales (secondary loan participation)G ti f f i• Generation of fee income

• Trading activities and risk management g gtechniques

Futures, options, interest-rate swaps, , p , p ,foreign exchangeSpeculation


Off-Balance-Sheet Activities (cont’d)( )

T di ti iti d i k t• Trading activities and risk management techniques (cont’d)

Principal-agent problem

Internal Controls• Separation of trading activities and bookkeeping

• Limits on exposureLimits on exposure

• Value-at-risk

• Stress testing


• Stress testing

Documents

PA974-001 Monetary Policy & Financial Regulation in a ...mchinn/pa974_lec16_f10.pdf · PA974-001 Monetary Policy & Financial Regulation in a Globalized Economya Globalized Economy