Oxfid inequality discussion

Kevin Watkins, ODI

24 February 2014

3

Inequality reflections: who said it?

• We are creating societies where we have large groups of haves and have nots – and we need to address this

• Distribution should undo excess and each (person) have enough• In far too many countries the benefits of growth are being enjoyed by far

too few people• When wealth captures government policymaking, the rules bend to favor

the rich, often to the detriment of everyone else• Today we also have to say “thou shalt not” to an economy of exclusion

and inequality• Poverty matters; injustice matters. Mere inequality is beside the point.• I didn’t come into politics to make sure David Beckham earns less money

4

Inequality: what worries us?

• Inequality of what – and how much is a bad thing?• ‘Wealth versus capability’• ‘Opportunity versus outcome’• ‘Absolute versus relative deprivation’• Social mobility versus ‘steady state’ inequality and

poverty• Interlocking disparities – gender, wealth and location

5 Source:

An inequality snapshot

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 350%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Estimates (WB)Baseline ProjectionsBaseline Growth & Declining InequalityBaseline Growth & Worsening Inequality

Head

cou

nt

Rati

o

2030 (mn)Baseline: 385

Declining inequality: 226Worsening inequality: 697

World poverty trends – two scenarios to 2030

Source: Brookings 2013

Changes in share of national consumption by decile

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10 Zambia (2002-06)

Decile

Change in s

hare

of

consum

pti

on

contr

olled b

y e

ach d

ecile (

% p

oin

t)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10 Nigeria (2003-09)

Decile

Change in s

hare

of

consum

pti

on

contr

olled b

y e

ach d

ecile (

% p

oin

t)

Source: Brookings 2013

Projected and actual change in poverty incidence

Series1

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Actual change (across two survey periods)Change projected from initial distribution pattern

Pe

rce

nta

ge

po

int

0.17 million

6.37 million

0.72 million

0.66 million

Ghana1998-2005

Poverty fell but should have fallen

further

Tanzania2000-2007

Poverty fell but should have fallen

further

Zambia2000-2006

Poverty should have

fallen but increased

Nigeria2003-2009

Poverty increased more than anticipated

Source: Brookings 2013

9

10

The wealth effect: People from the poorest householdswho are in education poverty

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Phili

ppin

es

Turk

ey

Viet

nam

Egyp

t

Keny

aCo

ngo

Indi

a

Nig

eria

Yem

en

Nep

al

Paki

stan

Mor

occo

Sene

gal

Chad

Burk

ina

Faso

Shar

e of

the

popu

latio

n w

ith le

ss th

an 4

and

less

than

2 y

ears

of e

duca

tion

Extreme education poverty People with less than 2 years of education

Education poverty

People with less than 4years of education

The gender effect: Girls from the poorest households who are in education poverty

In Yemen, the poorest 20% of householdshave an education poverty incidence

double the national average

And, for girls from the poorest 20%of households, the proportion triples.

The education poverty threshold (age 17-22)

Richest 20%

Poorest 20%

Poor, rural Hausa girls

Rich, rural girls

Poor, urban boys

Poor, rural girls

Nigeria

Rural Hausa

Rich, urban boys

Urban

Rural

Urban

Rural

Rich, rural boys

C. A. R.

Chad

Bangladesh

Cameroon

Honduras

IndonesiaBolivia

Cuba

Ukraine

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Av

erag

e nu

mbe

r of y

ears

of s

choo

ling

(Age

gro

up 1

5-17

yea

rs)

Education poverty

Extreme education poverty

3.3 years

6.4 years

3.5 years

9.7 years

0.5 years

10.3 years

2.6 years

0.3 years

BoysGirls

6.7 years

10 years

Education disparities in Nigeria

The case of Nigeria

Source: UNESCO GMR

13

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00

Senegal

Malawi

Uganda

Côte d'Ivoire

Gambia

Cameroon

Niger

Namibia

Mozambique

Rwanda

Benin

Central African Republic

Guinea-Bissau

D. R. Congo

Ethiopia

Ghana

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Nigeria

Difference in years of schooling

Gap in years of schooling between children from richest and poorest 20 per cent - two post-2003 survey periods (selected countries, 17-22

age group)

Source: UNESCO World Inequality Database on Education

14

‘Progress’ on child survival

Bolivia2003-2008

Burkina Faso2003-2010

Cameroon2004-2011

Ghana2003-2008

Guinea2000-2005

Haiti2000-2005/06

Mali2001-2006

Philippines2003-2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Percentage reduction in under-5 deaths across two post-2000 survey periods - richest and poorest households

Poorest 20%

Richest 20%

Perc

en

tag

e r

ed

ucti

on

in

th

e n

um

ber

of

ch

ild

death

s

(per

1,0

00

liv

e b

irth

s)