OwlSim: Revolutionizing National Energy Policies Through Technology

COMP 410 in Collaboration with Citizens for Affordable Energy

Overview

• Introduction • Simulation Framework• Energy Model and Plans• Advanced Features• Conclusion• Questions

Overview• Introduction

– The Class: COMP 410– The Customer: Citizens for Affordable Energy– Project Motivation– The Mission– The Team

• Simulation Framework• Energy Model and Plans• Advanced Features• Conclusion• Questions

The Class: COMP 410

• “Software Engineering Methodology”• Design class satisfying computer science

Bachelors of Science degree capstone requirement

• Warm-up project during first 3 weeks, then semester-long project … with a real customer!

• Student driven – no problem sets or lectures

The Customer:Citizens for Affordable Energy

• CFAE is a national not-for-profit membership association

• Goal is to educate citizens and policymakers about non-partisan national energy solutions

• Leadership– John Hofmeister, Founder and CEO– Karen Hofmeister, Executive Director

• www.citizensforaffordableenergy.org

Project Motivation

• CFAE is concerned with the lack of a long-term national energy policyCurrent policy may result in serious shortfalls in energy availability, affordability and sustainability

• CFAE wants a public software tool to simulate the long-term effects of national policies

The Mission

• Develop a simulation framework to predict the effects of policies

• Model U.S. electric power generation and distribution

• Create plans corresponding to best, average, and worst case scenarios

• Make the results accessible to the public

The Team

• User Interface Team– Jesus Cortez, Team Leader– Robyn Moscowitz– Tung Nguyen– Narae Kim

• Simulation Team– Ashrith Pillarisetti, Team Leader– Linge Dai– Mina Yao

The Team

• Modeling Team– Irina Patrikeeva, Team Leader– Elizabeth Fudge– Ace Emil

• Framework Team– Weibo He, Team Leader– Jarred Payne– Yunming Zhang– Xiangjin Zou

Management and Support

• Robert Brockman II – Project Manager• James Morgensen – Architect • Daniel Podder – Integration Master• Elizabeth Fudge – Organization Master

Overview

• Introduction • Simulation Framework– Theoretical Design– System Capabilities

• Energy Model and Plans• Advanced Features• Conclusion• Questions

Theoretical Design

• Modeling complex systems with mathematical functions

• Functions represented as modular “circuit elements” with inputs and outputs

• Functional modules can be “composited” – Encapsulate components of model– Allows composite modules with other modules

inside.– Arbitrarily complicated models can be created

System Capabilities• Scalability & Elasticity– Scaling up and down according to loads– Possible Parallel and distributed simulation instances– Possible Load Balancing

• Flexibility– Supporting multiple Use Cases– Easy Maintenance , low cost

• Stability– Handling hardware failures– Handling software failures

Overview

• Introduction • Simulation Framework• Energy Model and Plans– Model Implementation– Viewing the Results– Worst, Average and Best Case Scenarios

• Advanced Features• Conclusion• Questions

Model Implementation

• Four main components drive the simulation – Producer Module– Consumer Module– Infrastructure Module– Environment Module

The Model Details• Producer simulates

– Production of electricity from 8 sources • Coal• Natural Gas• Nuclear• Hydroelectric• Wind• Solar• Geothermal• Other (fuel cells, hydrogen, etc.)

– Production of transportation fuel from 2 sources• Oil (petroleum)• Biofuels

The Model Details

• Infrastructure module simulates– Transport of electricity and fuel– Exchanges the price with Producer module

• Consumer module simulates– Electricity and fuel demand from consumers

• Environmental module simulates– The net pollution emitted by Producer,

infrastructure and consumer modules

Simulation Design

• The system starts at 2010 with a list of initial values or assumptions

• Based on the assumptions Producer calculates net production of electricity and fuel

• User can provide events that change assumptions and affect the energy future generation

User Assumptions

• User has the ability to change many aspects of simulation, including (but not limited to):– How much electricity and fuel is produced from

each source– Net electricity and pollution produced from each

source (by changing power plants capacity)– Electricity lost due to transmission – Cost of production from each source– Population growth rate

Worst-Case Plan

• Simulation runs with default values (2010 data)

• No new power plants are built• Nothing is done to reduce pollution• Population and energy demand grows while

supply decreases due to decommission of old power plants

Average-Case Plan

• User builds new energy sources • Producing more electricity from cleaner

renewable energy reduces the gap between supply and demand

• Environmental pollution is reduced• No technological breakthroughs (capacity and

cost of production do not drastically change)

Best-Case Plan

• Supply meets demand• Energy is produced from clean renewable

sources at affordable price• Pollution is reduced

Comparison with Other Models

• No complicated equations • Directly shows user changes• Easy to use and test various assumptions• Unbiased

Overview

• Introduction • Simulation Framework• Energy Model and Plans• Advanced Features– Changing the Plans– Changing the Model– System Administration

• Conclusion• Questions

Changing the Plans

• User logs in using a Windows Live ID• Edit plan– Change inputs to simulation– Adding, changing events

• Save plan• Simulate model with modified plan

Changing the Model

• Allows completely customized models using XML format

System Administration

• Used by CFAE administrators • Adding Users• Changing Privileges

Overview

• Introduction • Simulation Framework• Energy Model and Plans• Advanced Features• Conclusion– Implications for Energy Policy Development– Acknowledgements

• Questions

Implications for Energy Policy Development

• Ability to model new policies rapidly• Lots of flexibility• Common ground to model different policies

with same framework• Education of public• Public forum for discussion on energy policy

Acknowledgements

• CFAE– John Hofmeister, Karen Hofmeister

• Professors– Dr. Stephen Wong, Dr. Scott Rixner

• TAs– Dennis Qian, Max Grossman, Milind Chabbi, Rahul

Kumar• Oshman Engineering Design Kitchen staff• Microsoft

Acknowledgements

• Smalley Institute:– Dr. Wade Adams– Dr. Carter Kittrell

• Dr. Richard Johnson• Steven Wolff• Others– Jeffrey Bridge, Jeffrey Hokanson, Stamatios George

Mastrogiannis

QUESTIONS

References

• EIA etc.