Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County

By Dan Nataf, Ph.D.Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues

Anne Arundel Community CollegeMay 24, 2011

www2.aacc.edu/csli

Overview of Survey Process

•CSLI – Part of Sarbanes Center for Public and Community Service at Anne Arundel Community College

•Operating since 1978

•Mission: Provide students opportunities for engaged learning, community outreach

• Main activity – public interest surveys

oRespondents randomly chosen from universe of listed telephone numbers combined with computer generated numbers

oTypical sample size: 400-900 respondents; students used as interviewers

o Topics – wide ranging, economy, transportation, land use/growth, taxes/spending, schools…

• Last survey – March 7-10, 2011 – focus of this presentation• 537 completed surveys• Press releases available online.

• since 1978 www2.aacc.edu/csli

Polling Results for AA CountyRemarkable stability in right/wrong direction…

Sp '99

Fa '99

Sp '00

Fa '00

Sp '01

Fa '01

Sp '02

Fa '02

Sp '03

Fa '03

Sp '04

Fa '04

Sp '05

Fa '05

Sp '06

Fa '06

Sp '07

Fa '07

Sp '08

Fa '08

Sp '09

Fa '09

Sp '10

Fa '10

Sp '11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

5754

5855

62

66

60 61 62

51

58 58

53

5755

51 52 51 5052

47

52 5249 50

23

2725 24 23

15

26

21

25

3431

24

2927 26

2927

33 32 3128 27 28 28 28

20 1917

20

15

19

14

18

1315

12

19 1816

1820 21

16 17 17

25

21 2023 22

RightWrongUnsure

Fall

'04

Spri

ng '05

Fall

'05

Spri

ng '06

Fall

'06

Spri

ng '07

Fall

'07

Spri

ng '08

Fall

'08

Spri

ng

'09

Fall

'09

Spri

ng '10

Fall

'10

Sp '11

Mean

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8 7 7

15

712

8

23

38

48

3336 36 36

22.4285714285714

14

18

22

16

21

16 16

129

5 5 52

4

11.785714285714311.21428571428578.64285714285713

Economy /Housing Taxes – too high

Growth /development Education /

Traffic congestion /problems Crime / drugs

AA County Polling Results: Most Important Problem - Fall '04 to Spring '11

Economy – top concern with no recent changes

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

4648

44 45

49

2730 31 32

35

5

11 11 11 11

Maryland improves by 8%

Anne Arundel County

USA

AA County Polling Results: Rate the Economy

Percentage saying “excellent” or “good” also stable since March 2009

2009 2009 20092010 2010 20102011 20112011

AA County compared to USA – County looks around 35% better

S'02

F '02

S '03

F '03

S '04

F '04

S '05

F '05

S '06

F '06

S '07

F '07

S '08

F '08

S '09

F '09

S '10

F '10

S '11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

38

26 2722

34 3431 28

3842

32

27

17

5 510 11 11 13

7476

56 56

62

74 74 71 7471 71

69

55

49 46 4844 45

49

CSLI – Anne Arundel County

Gallup – National Polling for USA

Facing

the

poss

ibili

ty o

f une

mpl

oym

ent

Sign

ifica

nt lo

sses

in y

our s

tock

or r

etire

men

t acc

ount

s

Facing

the

poss

ibili

ty o

f hou

se fo

reclo

sure

or l

oss

Delay

in m

akin

g a

maj

or p

urch

ase

such

as a

hom

e or

car

Health

car

e in

sura

nce

is un

avai

labl

e, to

o ex

pens

ive

or in

adeq

uate

01020304050607080

116

35

15

71

4

3024

75

6

51

2924

70

8

46

33

19

56

7

47

3221

60

7

4434

20

52

9

4735

Economic Conditions - % saying 'applies' - specific items

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11

AA County Polling Results: Mostly stable findings in % saying a condition ‘applies’

Little change except for fewer losses in stocks/retirement accounts

The economy: what else applies?

Unabl

e to

find

affor

dabl

e ho

usin

g

Wag

es o

r sal

arie

s ar

e no

t risi

ng a

s fa

st a

s the

cost

of l

ivin

g

Hard

to a

fford

the

cost

of t

rans

porta

tion

Hard

to a

fford

the

cost

of u

tiliti

es su

ch a

s el

ectrici

ty o

r gas

Taxes

are

too

high

in re

latio

n to

gov

ernm

ent s

ervice

s pro

vide

d0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

21

56

40

61

11

59

32

50

58

12

55

21

5359

13

55

17

42

59

15

56

21

44

63

10

56

24

43

60

14

63

4146

63

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11

Big jump in transportation costs

Condition Fall2005

Spring2011

Balancing the county budget (less spending, more revenues)

0 18

Providing enough jobs 8 16Providing enough skills/training or otherwise improving education/schools

11 12

Managing growth/development 27 8Having enough infrastructure, roads, transportation 3 7All other answers 51 39Total 100 100

Biggest Economic Challenge Facing the County – Items Mentioned in 2005 and 2011

Budget and jobs rise in importance

Perceptions of Decreases in Government Services

Answer Percentage

Yes 26No 70

Don’t know, no answer

5

Total 101

Services mentioned Cases PercentageRoads 39 24

Schools/teachers 31 19

Library 24 15

College tuition 12 7

Fire 10 6

Seniors services 10 6Jobs/furloughs/pay cuts

106

Police 9 6

Staffing 7 4

Child services 6 4

MVA 3 2

Mental health 2 1

Total 163 100

Most don’t see an impact from govt. belt-tightening

11

Issue Support Oppose Unsure

Imposing an additional fine of up to $1500 on drivers caught drunk driving 86 13 1

Permitting the use of off-shore wind power near Ocean City 80 10 10

Increasing the alcohol tax 68 29 3

Permitting the purchase of marijuana for medical purposes 65 29 7Taking away drivers’ licenses from those who refuse to pay taxes 64 32 3

Increasing the use of cameras to ticket those running red lights 59 41 4

Making same sex marriages legal in Maryland 47 46 7Making preparations to implement President Obama’s health care reform law 43 50 8

Limiting the use of binding arbitration when the county negotiates with public safety unions 35 42 23

Allowing the children of illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition for college 33 63 4

Increasing university tuition to maintain the quality of higher education 32 66 2

Reducing the pension and retiree health benefits of state workers 28 65 7

Promising state workers no furlough days, and providing them with a $750 bonus 25 59 16

Increasing the county income tax to the maximum allowed by law to avoid cuts in essential services 25 68 7

Increasing the gasoline tax to bolster the transportation trust fund 17 80 3

State and County Issues

SupportSocial Category %Party p=.01Democrat 57Unaffiliated 48Republican 35Ideology p=.01Liberal 81Moderate 53Conservative 22Religion p=.01None/Non-practicing 75Jewish 71Spiritual but not part of organized religion

64

Other 46Catholic 43Protestant 40Some other Christian 38Evangelical 30Marital Status p=01.Single 66Married 45Gender p=.3Female 51Male 44

Age p=.0718-30 5331-40 5141-50 5151-60 5361+ 37Race p=.3Black 30White 49Other (including Hispanic, Asian and unspecified ‘other’)

50

Demographics/Same Sex Marriage% saying “Support”

Yes No Unsure/N.A.

Total

President Obama’s state of the union speech? 72 28 1 101

Governor O’Malley’s inaugural speech or his state of the state speech

41 58 1 100

Watched County Council hearings being broadcast on local cable stations anytime over the last year?

19 80 1 100

Watched, listened or read about…

Estimates %Under $1 billion 4$1 billion to $500 billion

17

$501 to $999 billion 4$1-1.999 trillion 21$2-2.99 trillion 10$3-4.99 trillion 22$5-6 trillion 6Over $6 trillion 17Total 101

Estimations of Federal Budget

51% estimated

Estimates %

Under $1 billion 30$1-5.99 billion 26$6 to $10.99 billion

7

$11-15.99 billion 4$16-20.99 billion 5$21-30.99 billion 3$31-40 billion 1Over $40 billion 24Total 100

Estimates %

Under $5 million 22$5-50 million 18$51 to $100 million

10

$101-350 million 8$351-650 million 9$651-999 million 7$1-1.99 billion 14$2-2.99 billion 3$4-6.99 billion 4Over $7 billion 6Total 100

Estimations of County Budget31% estimated

Estimations of State Budget31% estimated

Fall '06

Spring '07

Fall '07

Spring '08

Fall '08

Spring '09

Fall '09

Spring '10

Fall '10

Spring '11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

3934 35

2824

5347 47

4247

3733 32 30

25

6154

4743

47

CSLI Gallup

Presidential Job Approval: Recent Rise…

Presidential Job Approval: % approving of president’s job by party

2824

5347 47

4247

9 6

7972 69

6270

57

43

2517

24 251819

24

53 53 52

35

57

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Sp. '08 Fa. '08 Sp '09 Fa. '09 Sp '10 Fa '10 Sp '10

Overall

Democrats

Republicans

Indep

Bush Obama