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Overview of crime trends in SA
NPA CONFERENCE 2007
JOHAN BURGERCrime and Justice Programme
Outline
• Overview of official crime statistics: 2004/5 - 2005/6 (up to March 2006)
• What do we know about crime in 2006/7?
Overview of official crime statistics
General trends over past 12 years
• Total number of crimes 7% • Total crime, and most serious crimes, peaked
around 2002/3• After 2002/3, encouraging decreases were
recorded ( 6% per year)• Several types of serious crime since 2002/3:
murder, burglary, robbery overall• Serious crimes that increased recently: vehicle
theft, hijacking, CIT robberies
Total 21 crimes recorded by SAPS
1994/95 - 2005/06
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 '03/04 '04/05 '05/06
Nu
mb
er
of
cri
me
s
Violent interpersonal crime Robbery Property crime Other
How accurate are the police statistics?
29
36
36
41
44
55
57
64
97
0 20 40 60 80 100
Robbery
Livestock theft
Damage to motor vehicles
Theft of personal property
Bicycle theft
Assault
Housebreaking
Theft out of motorvehicle
Car theft
% of victims who reported
Reporting of crime to police, 2003 ISS national victim survey
Murder rate1994/95 - 2005/06
Housebreaking rate 1994/95 - 2005/06
704
645
593
559
675694
673653
611603
629
597
400
500
600
700
800
94\95 95\96 96\97 97\98 98\99 99\00 00\01 01\02 02\03 03\04 '04\05 05\06
Nu
mb
er
pe
r 1
00
00
0 p
eo
ple
Aggravated robbery rate 1994/95 - 2005/06
220
196
288272
255
279262
260
230220
177164
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
94\95 95\96 96\97 97\98 98\99 99\00 00\01 01\02 02\03 03\04 '04\05 05\06
Nu
mb
er
pe
r 1
00
00
0 p
eo
ple
Bank robbery & cash in transit heists 1996/97 -
2005/06
450469
356
54 58 59
359
236 223 226196
238
374
192220
383
127
493
463
561
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 '01/02 '02/03 '03/04 '04/05 '05/06
Nu
mb
er
Bankrobbery
Cash-in-transitheists
Car hijacking rate 1996/97 - 2005/06
32 32
38
3534
35.4
32.3
29.7
26.727.4
20
24
28
32
36
40
96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 '00/01 '01/02 '02/03 '03/04 '04/05 05\06
No
. per
100
000
peo
ple
Car theft rate1994/95 - 2005/06
205
190180 183
255
274
250
241248 239
217229
100
150
200
250
300
94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 '03/04 '04/05 05\06
Nu
mb
er
pe
r 1
00
00
0 p
eo
ple
Rape rate 1994/95 - 2005/06
115
125 126 126
118
122 121 121
115113
118 117
80
90
100
110
120
130
94\95 95\96 96\97 97\98 98\99 99\00 00\01 01\02 02\03 03\04 '04\05 05\06
Nu
mb
er
pe
r 1
00
00
0 p
eo
ple
What do we know about crime in 2006/7?Various sources indicate increases in certain crimes in certain places
Short-term insurance industry reports
• Mutual & Federal: – Reversal of downward trend in
hijacking in Apr-June 2006 quarter (4% increase over 2005 quarter)
– Stolen cars also resumed an upward trend in Apr-June quarter
– Burglary claims increased by 15% in this quarter
• Hollard:– Spike in hijacking (20%) and burglary
claims in Apr-June 2006 quarter
Increases in certain crimes in Gauteng
(MEC for Community Safety, Feb 2007) • Operation IRON FIST (July - Dec 2006) was
launched to address the “spike in certain crimes”. Results:– Hijacking “stabilised” compared to 1st 6 months
of 2006– “Substantial reduction” in CIT heists. (SABRIC
reports 27% reduction Sep-Dec 2006 compared to 2005)
– Business robberies “continued to increase” but at a slower rate than 1st 6 months of 2006
– Residential robberies: “decreases were not recorded”
– Residential burglaries: “substantial reduction” after slight increase in 1st 6 months of 2006
SABRIC figures
•Bank robbery:
Down from 92 in 2005 to 83 in 2006
Overall decrease of 66% between 2000 and 2006
SABRIC figures (contd)
•CIT robbery:
Up from 520 in 2005 to 545 in 2006 (An increase of 5%)
In 2005 the increase was 17%
In 2004 there was a decrease of 7%
SABRIC figures (contd)
•ATM attacks:Increased with 121% from 37 in
2000 to 82 in 2006During Jan - March 2007 78
incidents already reported61% of incidents involved the use
of explosives
Consumer Goods Council figures
• CGC members reported armed robberies for the 2004-2006 period:
2004 - 206 2005 - 240 2006 - 262
(A 27% increase over the 3 year period)
Consumer Goods Council (contd)
• Comparative figures for Jan - Feb 2006/2007:
Armed robberies: Jan 2006 - 15 Jan 2007 - 15 (no change) Feb 2006 - 28 Feb 2007 - 16 (43% decrease)
Conclusion
•Good news:Overall crime levels are coming
down, but are still extremely high (e.g. murder has decreased by 41% over 12 year period, but is still approx 8 times the international average)
Conclusion (contd)
Aggravated robbery is down from 288 in 2003/04 to 255 in 2005/06 (but is still 55% up from 164 in 1996/97)
Bank robbery decreased by 66% between 2000-2006 (but focus seems to have moved to CIT, ATM & shopping centres)
Conclusion (contd)
• Bad news:CIT robberies increased by 74%
betw 2004/05 - 2005/06 (this trend continued in 2006 with a 5% increase since 2005)
ATM attacks increased by 121% betw 2005 - 2006, and the 78 attacks for the first 3 months in 2007 already
matches the total for 2006 (61% of these attacks explosives used)
Conclusion (contd)
Armed robberies at shopping centres increased by 27% over the last three years
Some crimes that showed decreases over the last number of years, seems to have leveled out and even slightly increased (e.g. hijackings, car theft)
