Overview and Selection of Multicriteria Evaluation Methods for Mitigation-Adaptation Policy Instruments

8/10/2019 Overview and Selection of Multicriteria Evaluation Methods for Mitigation-Adaptation Policy Instruments

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PROMITHEAS-4: Knowledge transfer and research needs forpreparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios

1

//


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2

T a b a, c a a b a b PROMITHEAS4

Scc C.

I a a a c, BSEC PERMIS a BSEC BC, a a

a a b a a a b aa.

Pa bca c* c ca cac c

aa a, ac, a a a c b aa (A 1).

A 4 :

1. P. D MAVRAKIS, NKUA KEPA (GREECE) E

2. D. P KONIDARI, NKUA KEPA (GREECE) A

3. D. Ha KAMBEZIDIS, NOA (GREECE)

4. P. Ba FELDERER, IHS (AUSTRIA)

5.

P. B HILMIOGLU, TUBITAK MAM (TURKEY)6. P. Vaa SARGSYAN, SRIE ESC (ARMENIA)

7. P. Da IVEZIC, UB FMG (SERBIA)

8. P. Ma CHIORSAK, IPE ASM (MOLDOVA)

9. P. A PAPADOPOULOS, AUT LHTEE (GREECE)

10.P. Aa ILYINSKY, FA (RUSSIA)

11.P. Aca POPESCU, ISPE (ROMANIA)

12.P. Aa LAMANI, PUT (ALBANIA)

13.P. Ea RAMAZANOVA, GPOGC (AZERBAIJAN)

14.D. L RADULOV, BSREC (BULGARIA)

15.

P. A PRAKHOVNIK, ESEMI (UKRAINE)16.P. S INYUTIN, SRC KAZHIMINVEST (KAZAKHSTAN)

17.P. Aa REIHAN, TUT (ESTONIA)

*, A, , , , , A, A, B, ,

, E.

E, C IHEA 4 C

.

/ I.

A: T Ta La ac cb M. Naaa B,

M. F Gaa a M. Ta S Pa I .


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3

Sa 4

PART I (AUT LHTEE) 5

O ca aa () M/A c 5

Abba 6

Ic 7

1. Ma ca ca aa 10

2. Mca aa M/A c 14

Rc 29

PART II (KEPA NKUA) 38

Sc ca aa () M/A c 38

Abba 39

1. Dc b 40

2. Ca a c a ca aa 40

3. Cc 50

A I 52

Rc 54


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4

T cc Ta (W.P.4.1.) a a c ca aa

Ma/Aaa c . T ca aa a

aa a a a , ca, ca. W c c,

a a ab, a a ac a bc,a, , aaa, aaa, aca, a a

ca aa a a b aca a/aaa

c . T a , c a AHP, ELECTRE, MAUT,

SMART a AMS. T a a aa a ca. T aa

a/aaa c a a a aaab aa a a

ca aa ca aa a a b c.


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5

() /A

. A AA,

A ()


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6

AHP Aaca Hac Pc

CBA C B Aa

CI Cc I

EEA Ea Ea Ac

ELECTRE Ea a Cc E Ra

GHG G Ga

IPCC Ia Pa Ca Ca IPCC

M/A Ma/Aaa

MACBETH Ma Aac b a Caca Ba Eaa TcH

MADM MAb Dc Ma

MAUT MAb U T

MCA M Ca Aa

MCDA MCa Dc Aa

MCDM MCa Dc Ma

MODM MObc Dc Ma

PI Pc I

PM Pc Ma

SMART S MAb Ra Tc

UK U K

UNEP U Na Ea Pa

UNFCCC U Na Fa C Ca Ca

UTA UT A


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7

T EU' ca a c ca ca, a a

a a aac ca ba a a ca ca a

aa a a c, a acc ca a cc ba

a a ca ca (EC, 2011 a 2010). Ta c Pa4 ca

a; ac a a/aaa (M/A) c

c a ca a ca a ba ac cba ca

ca 2012 .

T cac c ca, ca ca ca ,

aa ac c (Gaa a., 2009), a a a Ia

Pa Ca Ca (IPCC) a a a (IPCC, 2001 a 2007).

H, a ccc caacc ac a

, b a a , acc . I ca c

aa a a a a a b ac a ca a a ca a acab ca c a. H,

a a c a ca a a ca ca c a. T U

Na E Pa (UNEP, 1994) a a aaca a

c aa a (GHG) aba ca,

cac ca aa (MCA) a aa aa a a M/A c

. Ta a c, U Na Fa Ca Ca C

(UNFCCC, 2002) a MCA ca ca, a c a/ b

ca b a.

Dca aab a ca ca c, a a,

caac b a ac, ac /a ca, cc a .I (, 2007),

:

- ;

- ,

- .

Sc, a c aa a , c a

cab, c a aa.

Mca a a c a, cca a ca

c, a a a a aaab ca a c b.

M, ca ca c b ca cc a a c,

ca aac c.

MCa Dc Ma (MCDM) a ba a Oa Rac (OR)

c ca a b c b ba a cc c ca. T

a bc c a (MODM) a ab c a

(MADM) (Ka a Maa, 2007; Cac, 1997).

D a ca c a a

b ca, a c c a ca c c (M a

Mba, 1983). A a , ca a cc a a


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8

a aa c a c. I F 1, a aab a

ca . Scca, aab a a c a ca

a a acc cc aa, GHG , a cc, ca

aa.

1: S ca (K, 2005).

MCA a a c a a a ab c aa

a ca a ca, a a cc c c a

a a . T c c a c , b a a accab

c (Laa a., 2000).

T c MCA a ca aa c , c a a

cca a aa a cb ac a ab .

A aa cb ca , a ca,

aa a a. A c ca c b c a

aa a a aa b a ca. T ca ca a

a a ac a ac b aa. T ac ac

a a . I ca ca acca ac ac

aa a ac c.

Ua, ca a ca a ca ac, a a . A

Laa a. (2000) : ,

. : ,

( ), .

I .

M, c a ca b ca aa a a , a

a a c c. Saa a c c a,


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9

, a a aa b a aa ,

a ca a, bc aa aba aa . CA

,

, , (Laa a., 2000).

A a c cb aaab aa a aa. Fa

c a a ca. T c

a a c a a c a.

(DCG, 2009) :

() E :

- , ;

- ;

- .

() D ;

() D :

- ;- .

() . D

.

- ;

- ;

- .

() . A

.

() C .

- ;- .

() E .

() .

- :

?

- , ;

- ;

- .

S a aaa MCA, a cb b Ea E Ac R

(EEA, 2003), :- caab ca ca a cac bc;

- aca c a ca a ;

- baa a b a ;

- b a b;

- a a b a a aa

a;

- ca c b a a aca aca.

S a aaa MCA a b:

- a, caab aa;

-

a c ca


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- c a aca a aa a ab

a;

- ca ca .

Ca ca a cca a aa a ac aa. A (2008) a

cca a ca ca a b ac ca a a a

bc c cc c ca. Ma, c

a , a b a c cc ca

ca ca . O a a a c b c

(Mc, 2003).

Aa, IPCC (2001) a a a Ea c, .. Da (URL 1), Fa (SYKE,

2007; Sa, 2010), Na (B, 2010, URL 2 a 3) a S (URL 4), c (B,

2004; EEA, 2007,) a a ca a aa (U.S. EPA, 2009) c a

a ca ca c.

F b a ca aa a c,

Tab 1.

1: Eaa c ca aa .

Ab Eaa ca

Ea Dc a aa a cc ca

Hac ca Dca ab a c

IcabT c ca a a

c Qaa a aa a

aa

T a a a c

c b

Sc ac

S aa T ac aac c

T a, T a aa caac a,

cc, c a ca aaba

Ta ca T c b aa aa

Va aa A b ac/ a c a b

W cc Va ca c (cac) a

aa ca

1.

T a a ca ca , aa, a

a, aa aa a . P ba, a, ac

ba a a aa a a b. F a

, ca b ca a c, cac a , a cba

a caacc (G a B, 2004).

B a Sa (2002) acc caa MCDM :

(a)

a a a ;


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11

(b) a ;

(c) a, aa c .

Aa ab, Z a D (2002) ca:

- bc/a a;

- ab (AHP, MAUT, MACBETH c.);

- a (ELECTRE, PROMETHEE, ORESTE c.);

- c aa (UTA, UTADIS, MHDIS);

- .

T a, MCDA a b a

c . H, a a c c (F 2) a c:

(a)

aa ,

(b)

ca,

(c) a cc a ac ca,

()

ca ac ca,

()

a aa ac aa c aa.E a a caca, bc c c aa a

a a c c a a a ca c. A acc a

c a aa a ac aac (K a Raa, 1976;

S 1986). Ba a a c c,

c ca b MCDM b b K a. (1992):

(a) A c a a c, a aa c.

(b) A c a ab a c, b a c. Ia, a

a ca a c.

(c) D a a a c a ca a c, c, c.

Acc c, c a aac

ca b ca b c.

A 1: A

T a caca aac ab c aa. U KRaa

(1976) ac, ca b :

(a)

a ab a/ c a ca ;

(b) aa a/ c cca c;

(c) aa cca bab c ca ca ;

()

ab c a ac;()

c aa a/c .

B, c a c a/ c a b aa, c a a

b c aa ab c ac.

A 2: I

(a) Ba a c a c.

I ca, c a ac a a c c a

a acc ( ), a c a ac

accac cc (b ) a c (Ha a Ma, 1979; S,

1986; S a Raa, 1991). T a cb aac :


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12

- a ab a c a ca ;

- a a a aab a c;

- ca c a a / ac ;

- aa ab a c;

- a a ac a a c;

- a a ab a b c a a

.

(b) Ba ab a c.

T aac a ca ba c c a a bc

. T c a ac b caa c (Wbc, 1980;

S a C, 1983). N, c a a c . T a cb

aac :

- b a aac a c a c a ab

a a, aca c ;

- c a c aa a , , c.;- c a a a c

a aaa;

- a c a , c a ca aa a

b ac.

I a , aac a c a a c .

Iac a a c a c a b (La

a., 1989; K, 1987, 1988). W c ac a (2a b) a a a

b, acc S a Raa (1991), cca ac ca c

ac c c, ca, a a c.

A a ac c a ac . S a Raa (1991)

ca ac :

- ba a ca;

- a ca;

- c ca;

- c ca a a;

- a ca a a;

- caa a a;

- c c c b acc; a c a

acc;

- aa (c ).

A 3: A

T aac c a a c a ca a . H/

c c a cc b. N a

a c a . Tca, ca b cb b :


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13

2:MCDA c aab ca (Wa a., 2009).

- c a a c ;

- c a c ;


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14

- a c ac c a a a / c

a.

T (aa) a b a a acc a c, b a

aa , .. ADBASE (S, 1986).

2. / T c aa a/aaa c a a a cc

aa a a. T bc b a a aa aa

MCA c ab ac c a PROMHTHEAS4

c.

Ica, a c, a cb a:

Aaca Hac Pc (AHP), Ea a Cc E Ra (ELECTRE), MAb

U T (MAUT), S MAb Ra Tc (SMART) a AMS.

2.1.

T AHP a a a aab a/ ab ca a a

c aca c , cc a ba, b Saa

(1980).

AHP a c c aa a caca aca ac aa

a ca aa ca a aa b a

. T ba AHP a c a, b, ac ac a a ac a c

a a . T c a a ac ac, ac

ac. T a c a ac c aa a ba. T

aa c b aa (Wa, 2009). T c aca AHP

a ca a: acc a aa.

I ba c a c b a acc a a (bc) a

ac, ca a bca a a b ac, a c

aa a b ac.

.

(Pa a Raacaa, 2004). T c ca a a

a ca a c. Ta , ca a

a a c c a c ca

a a b c ca. T a . T ca

a c a c a c ab. T

a c a b ac a ba b a a

cb a c a ab. T a

c acc c (F 3).


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T acca c AHP a c a ba c c b

a b a b, a, ca, bca, a aa. Pa

ca ab c a c a c a ca

b c. I , ac ac (c) ca.

T c a c a ca, ba ca a ca

b c ca ca ca a , a a a c

ca a ca (D a., 2008). W a b a cb

aa a ca, a aa AHP a

aaa c c b c.

3: AHP c (T a., 2010).

S, a a, a ac a , c a

b c. F, a a

ac c b ac () a a (aa) a

acc a .

Acc Saa (1995), :

A 1 ( C):

/ .

A 2 (H): .

A 3: (I). ,

.

A 4: (E). F ,

.

A a c, aa A 1 ,

, . I A 2

. A 3

. A

AH . F,


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A 4 , /

/ .

A D

A a aaa AHP acab ca, a ,

a ca a c. I a, b c a b c c a

cb a aa a, c a , a, ab

a a ca a.

T AHP ab a b aa a aa (Maca

a., 2004), a cc a ca c c , c a

ab (Kaba, 2004). Aa, caca cc a a a

c a cc a a a . T a c

a a / a / c a a a c a

(Pa a Raacaa, 2004). T cc c a a c a

b (Vaa, 1990).

H, a a aaa a b a ca b a,

a bc a ca ca ca c (Maca a., 2004).

F, AHP a b cc ab ba c a b a

c.

T a aaab a AHP c a cb a : MCSc

(M a., 2005), E Cc (ECP, 2000), Lca Dc (2003), WbHIPRE (HIPRE 3+,

Ma a., 2004), HIVIEW.

AAHP a a a , a c c a caa

.

T AHP a b cc a a a, , ca cc,

ac a a a Tab 6. I a a b

ca a c a.

2.2.

Ea a Cc E Ra (ELECTRE) a b Ba R 1960.

Ta a aa , a ELECTRE I, ELECTRE II, ELECTRE III, ELECTRE

IV, ELECTRE IS a ELECTRE TRI. A a a b.

A a a aaca a cc, a c ca ca b

a a b a aaA= (1,

2,...,

) a a (1,2,...,) ca. T ca a

aa c A a() ac aa

c.

F a c a, ca aa ca a b a a a a

acca a b a ca c, c a c c


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: a c (()) a a c ((

)) ac c

(=1,..., ). T a b ca, a a c ().

F c, b :

I a a:

(

) >(

) +((

))

a () + ((

)) ((

)) > 0. Wa c cb a b c a

c (Paa a Kaaa, 2008).

Ec III a ca a ca , ca a a a ca

ab a a c ca ca b ca a ca, a a

ac a ca (Kaaa a P, 2009).

A ELECTRE a c aa bac cc a aaca

aaca a aa a a aa a a

a c a c.

EECE I

Pc ELECTRE I a b ba a a, S, a

. C ac a a b, a a cc (Ra .a., 2009):

- aSb a bSa, .., aPb (a c b).

- bSa a aSb, .., bPa (b c a).

- aSb a bSa, .., aIb (a b).

- N aSb a bSa, .., aRb (a caab b).

T b a (c, b) a a. N a

a a c c a c a, R (caab). T

a acc a c c a a/ aa a ab

ca ac.

Fa a R (2004) cc a a a c ba a cc:

(a) Ccac. F a a aSb b aa, a c a ca b a

a.

(b) Ncac. W ccac c , ca

a aSb.

T a a cc a b a a ca a b c

ca ca ca a. I c a a, a ac a a b (a , a a a a a b) b aSb, c .

T cc a b caab, a ab

c b c ac, a b ac c a c /

a . I cc c ELECTRE I , a a S a

ac. T aa ca a aca ELECTRE .

EECE II

EECE II , .

EECE

F (2002). W a, a a ELECTRE II a a


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a c ba cc a b a a

c. T cc c c b ELECTRE IV, a

a a ca ba c. Hc, a c a

a. H, ccac c a acc b

a a. T a b a: a a a b a a

a a. T ELECTRE III a a a ELECTRE II (Kaaa a

P, 2009; Fa a R, 2004).

EECE III

ELECTRE III a a ELECTRE II a acca, c a

ca aa. T a aca ac, a ELECTRE III a a cc a

ca a ba a a aca. T aaca a a

cc ELECTRE I. T c ca a

ca. I EECE III

,

(Fa a., 2004).

EECE I

T a ELECTRE IV a a ca a ca a ELECTRE I

(Fa a., 2004). T ELECTRE a b aa a c a

c c a ca. Wc ca ,

aa ab c b c ac a b ac b aa b c a.

EECE I , , .

,

. I ,

, , EECE I (Fa

a., 2004). O a c cc ca cc ELECTRE I ELECTRE IV. T

c.

EECE I

ELECTRE TRI a a ac, bc ca. (C1)

(C). E . C = C1, . . . ,C, . . .

,C . C

; C C+1, = 1, . . . , . F , ,

. ()

EECE III. I , ,

(Fa, 2004).

T bc a c ab ba a. T

a a a. T a ca b c ba

Fa (2004).

(a) T cc c c a ac ca b a a ca aa ac

c a a a a c a b c b ca.

T ac c a ca c.


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(b) T c c c a ac ca b a a ca, a, a a c,

a aa a a a a c a b c b

ca. T ac c a ca c.

W c , a a ac a a cc .

T cc a a c c

a c. T a (cc) ca b acc ac

aac a a.

ELECTRE TRI a aa ab .

A D

T a aaa ELECTRE a ca aa ca b ac

a ca c , a ca c

a c a b, ab. M, a ab a b

aa a aa . O a a a c c a

a a a aa.

N a a a c ba ELECTRE . M a a

a ca c , ac,

CSMAA a (T, 2007) a c ba ELECTRE III a ELECTRE TRI

c aac.

A a ba c MCDA (Pa .a.,

2006) c ca ab c b. T a a ba

ELECTRE III, NAIADE a PROMETHEE II .

A

T ELECTRE a ca a b ac a ac , a a a a b

a aaa c. EECE

, , , , ,

(Fa a., 2004).

T ELECTRE a aca cc a ac a, a a

a a, ab c b, c a a

aa.

2.3.

MAUT (K a Raa, 1976) a ac, a a ,

ba ca c. T aac a c ac ac. T

ac ca b caca, a, a a. Oc c a ac, ac

aa ca b aa ac ac a a a c b b

ac .

MAUT cac a ca b a a b,

a ca a a MCDA .

T bac , a Sa a Saa (2000) cb, a:

- ca aa bc, bbc a ab bbc;


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- a ab c a ;

- caca a aab cc a c;

- aa a a ca a ab a c a

.

T bc MAUT a c a a a

/a c U(.). T c a a c ca ac, c

a:

U(a) > U(a)a> a(a a)

U(a) = U(a)a a(a a)

T c c a :

U(a) = 11(2) + .+ ()

, 1; 2; . . . ; a aa c c aa ca.

T c ac a a c acc a caba b ac a c a a cca ca a a

aa c. T caca aa acc a ac

c, .. a c b K a Raa (1976). Eac aa

c /a aa ac a c . T aa 1; 2; .

. . ; a ca a a a c a ba a c

a c . T ca a c

ca a a c a .

T /a ca b b a ab c b

ca a a c a a ab

c.Ga, c ca b a aab ca aab c

ab . T ca a a a :

=

+=+n

j

jjjn xukkxxxku

1

21 ))(1(),...,,(1

(1)

ab,

a ca ca (a a a 1),

ca ca ab ,

(.) a c a,

(.) c a ac ab (Pa a Raacaa, 2004).

A D

MAUT a c a a a a b

(aa, ca, c).

T a a c , c ca a b a

b. H, a c a a , c a

a b bc b, b bc, a c a

aa.


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Aaab a a a MAUT a : Lca Dc (2003), WbHIPRE

(HIPRE 3+, Ma a., 2004), HIVIEW, 1000M (URL 5).

AT aca MAUT cc, cc a, ab a a

a ac a b.

2.4.

SMART a a cb 1977 b Ea a c a aa a

ca a a MAUT.

T c a a a a ac ca ca ca

b . T 10 a a a a ca, a ca b

( c ) a ca a ac a

a a ca. T cc a caca b a

.

T, ac a aa a caca a:

==

=n

j

j

n

j

ajja wrwU11 (2)

a a aa a ab a ca caab ca. T

MAUT c a aa a 01 ca, 0

c ac a c a 1 b c ac

(Sa, 1998; O, 2001).

Ea a Ba (1994) a ca b a ca a a

a , SMARTER. T a SMARTER c a

a c a b

=

=n

k

ikn

w1

11

Ea a Ba (1994) b a a a ca c,

a c a b cc a

a a a ca c. I c a a

c ca a a

c a ac. H, cc ca a a

c a c a ba a a bc c.

A , A ,

A . I A,

. I A, , .

A ,

A (Ea a Ba, 1994). Ea a a a ca


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a a a ' a c, a b c a c,

a c ca c acc a a

a a (Ea a Ba, 1994).

I SMART, c (Sa, 1998) a:

- a c ca a a a acc;

- ca a bab b;

- a a a/;

- b a a a/ c;

- c .

A D

T SMART a , ba ab a b aa a

aa aa. T ab c a b a

c b a a.

T SaSa (Ma a Haaa, 2007) a SMART .

A

T aca SMART cc a ac a b.

2.5.

AMS a aa Gc a a aa M

Ca Aa (MCA) a ca. AMS c a a c cb

aa ca : Aaca Hac Pc (AHP), MAb U T

(MAUT) a S MAb Ra Tc (SMART) (Ka a Maa, 2006; Ka

a Maa, 2007).

T c (4) bac :

(a) Ca ca.

(b) Da cc ca/bca.

(c) Ga ac a c/bc.

()

Cc c a a a aa a acaa . Cc a b a a .

(a) A a a ca ca a c b

c c c. T ca aa a a a

cca ca c aa a a aa ca b

ac ca c , c a (PM), ac a a

(Ka a Maa, 2007). T a a c a c a ca a

ca. E aa ca ca c

c ca a c a ca AMS .

A ca ca ac b PM aa a EU25

Naa Cca UNFCCC. Ca c ac c ca

c c a a PM. Ta a c c


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a b PM. PM a ca c ( bc c

a a) b a a (Ka a Maa, 2007).

F cc a bc a ca c a . T a

b c a ca ca GHG c. A

c ca a c: a ac, ca accab a ab

a. T , a c bca a

a , a a .

E a a a cb c

a a. A c ba bca:

- Dc cb c GHG a a GHG

c c a ab c ;

- Ic a c aca c ab c .

a a a a c .

A aca bca:

- C c PI ac a c a aca

b accab a aab b (a );

- Dac c cc PI ca, a cac a

ac c, ca a aca c a c, a

a aaa a a GHG c (Ca, 2001);

- C caac c, aca PI, a c, c

c a aa ca a cc ca

cb aca ac (S, 2002);

- E a PI b , cac c a b a

(c/c) acc GHG c (Vaac a Waab,

2004). F aa a c, aa (ba) a

aa (IPCC, 2001). T cc a c, c

PI c ca ca. Naa PI a a a

c , c c. Iac c a

ca . Sc c a b aa c a

GHG c b. Sca c b

c;

- Fb PI a a cac a a a

a a ac c a a a acc ;

- Sc cac a aca b

PI a a a c aca a.

F ( ) a aa acab PI

aa aca ( a a c) a a a. A ba :

- Ia caac ab a aa c a , a

a PI. T caac ba a ,

cca ac, cb a aac. T a cc

aa a c caab a PI. Tcca

ac aaab c a c c a ca b

a. Cb a accac a cc a


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24

caac ac, a a a aba aa ca

a, a aa cac . Taac a

a a a ca

a a PI a a.

- Aa ab aa b a a

c PI;

- Faca ab PI b a c b

a a.

(b) F c , a cc a ca/bca

a caca Ka a Maa (2007). M cca,

cc ab AHP c a ba

c ac ca c , c a, ac a

a . Ea U a a a .

(c) T cc a ac. T c

, a U, a c ac U() ca, a . U()

a a c ac c bca (ab). T ac

a cc bc a MAUT c ca a

a cb a aaab aa.

T a a a () () ac bc c, bca

aca a ac . U a a c a a

c (Aaa . a., 2005; Sca, 2001; Za . a., 2001; A . a., 1978).A a c

() = a + b, caca () ca [0,100]. Cc a a b a ac

bc aa, a . Ga () a 100.0

(b) a a ac a a 0.0 ()

a ac (Pa a Raacaa, 2006; Sc . a., 2001).

I ca a a cb a aaab aa, ac a cc

bc a SMART a MAUT. T c SMART a. () ca

b abc aa a a aac a a ac.

Dc a c a , b c c a ba /

bc a a ca b aa bc, a a a a

ca a. SMART c MAUT c b b a a a MCDA

a c a b. Dc a a c a a

a ac ( ab) a a c a ac

aa bc a ca cc ca.


25/59

PROMITHEAS-4: Knowledge transfer and research needs for preparing miportfolios

4: T AHP ac.

Mitigation of climate

change

Environmental

performance

Political

acceptability

Feasibility of

implementation

Direct contribution t

Indirect environment

Cost efficienc

D namic cost efficie

Com etitiveness

E uit

Flexibilit

Strin enc for non-c

Im lementation netw

Administrative feasi

Financial feasibilit


26/59

PROMITHEAS-4: Knowledge transfer and research needsfor preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios

26

T c a a a ac a aca bc

ca. Ta a a a b c a

ac a bc, ( 2.51) km

a a acc SMART

(La, 1993; La a Baa, 1997). T a a a caca ba

a

1

( 2.51)100

( 2.51)

k

k

m

nm

k

normalized grade

=

=

b aa bc. Nb 2.51

a b 2 SMART , bca 2.51

a10

( x ) 100= . U b 2.51, a 10 c a 100 MAUTca.

() F a a (c a ac) a PI a ca bc c cc b

c. A c (cc a bca) a a a a c a

b bca. T c a PI

c. T c a c cc c.

A c a a a a a, c c

aa PI.

M cca:

3

1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3

1

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )j j j j i j i i

i

U w U x w U x w U x w U x

=

= + + =

T c a c.

Cc cc aac. T aac

ba cc AHP b Saa. T caca a

max

1

nCI

n

=

,

CI cc ,

max a a a a a a a. T

a a cc ba a * CI

CRCR

= CR c

a a cc. CR c a; 0 a 22 a, 0.58 33,

0.90 44, 1.12 55, 1.24 66, 1.32 77, 1.41 88 a 1.45 99. A a

c CR*


27/59


27

( )

1

0, 3

det( ), 3( )

1( ), 3

( )

nxn

nxnnxn

NT M

inxn i

if n

M if nCI M

CI if nNT M =

NT(M) b a b

( )

0, 3

( ) !,

3! 3 !

nxn

if n

NT M nif n

n

=

= > 3

a CI() cc a . T a a a c c

a aa A, A, A(ca/bca a)

A A A

A 1 a a

A 1/a 1 a

A 1/a 1/a 1

Caca CI a a aa c b 100.000 a CI a P J.I. a

Laaa M.T. ac a c. A c b cca a

cc CI aac. T c c 0.10 (c a

Saa ). T CI a a 0.166 a 33 a, 8.303 a 66 a.

Pa aa (SA) cc b .

CAMS a a a aa aa ca ca

c. T aca c a c c

a c a a ba aa cc c

. I a c ca c a ca acab a ca c (Ka, Ta, 2006).

T a b aaab a a

a aa ca aa . N cc

a bac caca, b / a

aa a a.

CAMS a ca cc c a

c. T a acc a cc caca . I

c ca cc cc aa Saa a

P J.I. a Laaa M.T..


28/59


28

A D

AMS a , ab, b, aa a c aa a ca a

ca c aa. T , bca a

c MCDM. A, ab bca ca ba

ca c a ca c . Taaa a a c , ca ,

c a aca.

A

T a b a aa ac EUETS EU b Sa1

a a ac a ca c , EUETS a IPPC, EUETS a

RES Hc a. AMS a a a aa

ca ca c ac a c .

Da, Ga, Gc, Ia, Na, Pa, S a U K (UK)


29/59


29

Aa BA, Ma R, M MS., 1999. Mca c cc a

aaca ac c. Ecc P S Rac 52, 2935.

A J. E., L E., Pa I., 2008. A TaBa Aac S Gba Ca Ca.

Rc F, Dc Pa, 0826.

A F.J., R L., 2007. A ac ca a ab

c: T a aca aca cc. Ea Ja

Oaa Rac 181, 2, 793807.

Aa H, E S, K E., 2004. Mca c a ba a

ca aac ac c. Rab E 29, 13831392.

Baa Ca C.A., Ca E.C., D C J.M., Vac J.C., 2002. Faca b aa

bc ca : a ccca aac. Oa 30, 227 242.

Baa, J. 1997. D a ca ac, Ja

Oaa Rac Sc 48, 12261232.

Bcca M., Ca M., Ma M., 2003. Dc a aaca

Ec a a ab c.

Rab E 28, 20632087.

B S. a Sa T.S., 2002. M Ca Dc Aa. A Ia Aac,

K Acac Pb, Maac.

B R., Eca W., Scc J., 2004. D aa aca a EU

a A aa c. E a E 15, 375425.

B M., 2000. Ca Ca Pc Na: Aa a Sc.

W B Pacc Pc a Ma, 11 13 A 2000, Ca,

Da.

Ba CM., 2004. Pa ca c . Ea Ja Oaa

Rac 158, 308316.

Caaa D, Raaaa R. 1998. A aac aa a caac

b. IEEE Taac P S 13, 12321237.

Caa AI, Paac PA., 2009. Tcca, cc a aab

aa a Aac Hac Pc. E Pc 37, 778

787.


30/59


30

Ca A.C., 2001. Ca Pc a ac cc a. A ca

Na CO2a a cca a c. Ca Pc 1,

499515.

Cac J., 1997. Mca aa. N Y. SVa.

Da C a Lca G (DCLG), 2009. Mca aa: A

aa. L, U.K., ISBN: 9781409810230.

D Y., X Y., L H., Da M., 2008. A caa ca ca a

a AHP. Ea Ja Oaa Rac 186, 229242.

Ea W., 1977. H ab a ca c a.

IEEE Taac S Ma a Cbc, SMC7, 326340.

Ea W., Ba F.H., 1994. Sa a Sa: I S M MAb U Ma. Oaaa Ba a Ha Dc Pc 60,

306325.

Ea J, Sa VM., 1996. Ra c (RODOS)

c aa a ca acc Fa R. Lb:

Ea C.

E Cc, 2000. E Cc 2000 2E G. ://..

Ea F, Maa I.,1998. Ica a a c (SET) Ja: aac ac c. E Pc 2, 19781984.

Ea C (EC), 2010. Cba ca ca Ea Paa

11 Mac 2009 a EU a a c ca ca a

Ca a aa ac ca ca c. Oca

Ja C 87E, 1.4.2010, 9094.

Ea C (EC), 2011. O Ea Ecc a Sca C

Cca C Ea Paa, Cc,

Ea Ecc a Sca C a C R Iaa ca c Ca: Ac a ba ac

ca ca COM(2010) 86 a. C 51, 17.2.2011, 6974.

Ea E Ac (EEA), 2003. A a a a a

aa . A caa a . Pa b: D. Faa a S. M.

Ea Tc C Wa a Maa F, Tcca R 96. Ca,

Da. ISBN: 9291675776.


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31

Ea E Ac (EEA), 2007. F Scc A EEA Rac F

E a Saab. Fa R. Fa Cac N. EEA/AIR/04/007.

Pa b: W.Sa, T.Zaa, S.B, M. R, 15 Nb.

Ea E Ac (EEA), 2010. T Ea a a

2010.

Fa J. a R B., 2002. D ca ELECTRE

a S c. Ea Ja Oaa Rac 139,

317326.

G E., Saa Y., Daa D., 1998. D a a a

DSS a ab a. Ea Ja Oaa

Rac 109, 483500.

G E., Saa Y., Ma S., Za S., Laa D.P., 2003. A caca aac aa a

c c. Ea Ja Oaa Rac 146, 199215.

Gab K, K CW, Sca A., 1981. Sc a a c

ab c . Maa Scc 22, 174189.

GL A.J. Ma Y., 2006. Mca a a a a

ba : a Sa ca , Ea Ja Oaa Rac 173, . 313

336.

Gaa S., Fa A., O V., Z D., 2010. Mca aa

ca a c a ca c

ac. Iaa Ja E Sc Maa 4, 3, 434461.

G L.A., B S., 2004. D ca a a c:

ca ca. E Pc 32, 721735.

Haaa RP, L M, S K. 2000. Mab aa ca

c aa. R Aa 20, 455468.

Haaa RP, K E, Ea H. 2001. Eaa a a a

c a c aa. G Dc a Na 10,

331353.

Hb R., S C., Sa L., 2003. H C Aa CDM c Ua:

Aca a Saab A T.://...///.

Ha C.L., Ma, A.S.M., 1979. M Obc Dc MaM a

Aca. Lc N Ecc a Maaca S 164. S, B.


32/59


32

Hbb B.F., H G.T.F., 1997. B bc cc a: a

MCDM aac a a a BC a. E Pc 25, 357375.

IPCC, 2001. Ca Ca 2001: Ma, Cb W G III

a Ia Pa Ca Ca, IPCC.

IPCC, 2007. Ca Ca 2007: Ma, Cb W G III

a Ia Pa Ca Ca, IPCC.

ISO/IEC 9126, 1991. Ia c Sa c aa a caacc

a . Ga.

Jaaa A. a Ga H., 2005. Eaa bc c a

cc ab . Ecca Ecc 55, 408419.

J M, H C, H R. 1990. A ab a UK

c. Ja Oa Rac Sc 41, 10, 91929.

Kaba M.M., 2004. Dc ca : a aac

ac c aac. E Pc 32, 11511158.

Kaaa A. a P G., 2009. A ca a c

aabc c ac ac ca

a. Bc Tc 100, 23552360.

K R.L. a Raa H., 1976. Dc bc. N Y: Cab

U P.

K G.A., B T.S., Va A., Sa T. P., L I., 2005. Aca Mca

Dc Aa Ea Dc Ma. Ia Ea A

a Maa 1, 95108.

Ka P. a Maa D., 2006. Mca aa ca c ac.

Ja MCa Dc Aa 14, 35 53.

Ka P. a Maa D., 2007. A ca aa ca ca

a c . E Pc 35, 62356257.

Ka P., Ta F., 2006. CAMS, a ca c aa.

MCDA64, E W G & Mca Dc A, Sb 2829 2006,

Laa, Gc.

K P., M H., Wa J., 1992. M ca c A .

Ea Ja Oaa Rac 63, 361375.


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33

Laa R., Sa P., Ha J., 2000. U ca a

a a aa. Ea Maa 26, 595605.

Lca Dc, 2003. Lca Dc W. V 5.1.

://.cac.c.La F.A., 1993. Sca ca AHP a SMART. Ja M

ca c aa 2, 87110.

La F.A. a Baa J., 1997. P a a G Aa

Mca AHP a SMART. Ja Mca c aa 6, 155165.

Maca C., Sa J., D Bc K., Vb A., 2004. PROMETHEE a AHP: T

aa ca aa. S PROMETHEE a

AHP. Ea Ja Oaa Rac 153, 307317.

Ma M, Haaa RP. 1995. Dc aa a ac

a. Ea Ja Oaa Rac 87, 551563.

McDa TL, 1996. A ab aa a ac cc

. Ja Ea Maa 46, 5766.

M P. a Mba V., 1983. M cc ac

ca a a aac. Ea Ja Oa Rac 13,

4159.

Mc, P., 2003. A Fa Eaa Ea Pc I.

Eaa 9, 415436.

M A., Ga J., Saa S., 2005. MCSc: a a aca ca

ca ca a, Ea M a Sa 20, 13151322.

Ma J. a H R. P., 2007. SaSa A c ca

c aa a . Dc S S 44, 1, 313325.

Ma J., H R.P. Ma M., 2004. Paca ca c

WbHIPRE: a ca a a c. Ea M a Sa 19, 537547.

Nca P. a Va A., 1990. N c a a. E

Pc 18, 8, 764773.

O D.L., 2001. Ca ca c c.

Ea Ja Oaa Rac 130, 576587.

Oa W. a La O., 1999. AHPba aa AHPSa. Ea Ja

Oaa Rac 118, 578588.


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34

P J. I. a Laaa M. T., 2002, A a cc cca

ac, C & Maac Aca, V 46, I 12, Dcb

2003, Pa 18391845

Paa A.M. a Kaaa A, 2008. Aca ca aa

ELECTRE III a ca . Oa 36, 766776.

Pa S.D. a Raacaa M., 2004. Aca ca c a

aab a A . Rab a Saab E R 8,

365381.

Pa S.D. a Raacaa M., 2006. Mca aa c c

ca c aabc a c (PSC) Ia. E 31, 12151227.

Pa H., Haaab D., Ma G., V R., 2006. Sc a Aa

MCa Dc Aa Tc Rab E Pa. E Sc,

Pa B, 1, 181193.

Pa T. 2003. Mab aa c aa M

R . Ecca Ecc 45, 297309.

Raaaa R. 2001. A aaca ac c

a ac a. J Ea Maa 63, 2735.

Raaaa R. a Ga L.S., 1990. A bc a aac

c aca b. Iaa Ja E Rac 17, 105119.

Raa S. a Fa L.C., 1994. A acca aac cc a.

Iaa Ja E Rac 8, 185196.

Raaaa R. a Ga L.S., 1995. E c aca ca aa

a aa ca: a a a a a AHP. Sc

Ecc Pa Scc 29, 197218.

Ra L.A.D., G L.F.A.M., Ma R.A., 2009. Dc T M Ca: a

Aca Ec IV a T Sba/R. Pa Oaca 29, 577590.

R M, B M. 1998. C ac a c, c a

a ca ELECTRE. Ea Ja

Oaa Rac 107, 542551.

Saa, T.L., 1980. T aac ac c. N Y: McGaH.

Saa, T.L., 1985. Ta Pa M Ca: T Aac Hac Pc

Aca a P R. Ja Aac Taa 29, I, 81126.


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35

Sa P., Ha J., Laa R., 1998. Ca ca

c a b. Ea Ja Oaa Rac 104, 485

496.

Sa J. a Saa P., 2000. Fac ac aa a

c. Iaa Ja Pca Db & Lc Maa 30,

196220.

S, J., 2002. A c ac ca ca c. A

M Ecc D, 1.://.../a/20940/c.

S W.S. a Raa A., 1991. A ac bc

aaca a b, Ja Oa T a Aca 68,

539561.

Sa J., 2010. Aca R A a MCa Aa Caa

La Maa Fa. F E I, H, Fa. ISBN 978952

1138003.

Sa S., 2007. SDRN a ac a c

aab aa a aaa. SDRN, L, U.K.

S R.E.. 1986. M Ca Oa: T, Ca a Aca, J

W, N Y, 546.

S, R.E. a C, E.U., 1983. A ac Tcbc c

bc a. Maaca Pa 26, 326344.

Sc S. a Fa R., 2001. Qa a cca, a a

aca a c a. Ja P Scc

a E 32, 115125.

SYKE, F E I, 2007. A aa caac F

a c a ca ca: FINADAPT. Sa c a

b T R. Ca, H.

T S., F G., Ta S., 2010. T ca c a

RES c C, A .

E Pc 38, 77837792.

T G.H. a Ta S.H., 1990. Aca ca c a c

a Taa. Iaa Cc MCDM Ta. B c,

4, 268283.


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36

UNEP, 1994. UNEP G Ga Aba C S Pa T, UNEP

caba c E a E, R, Da.

UNFCCC, 2002. I a c

aa aa aaa a ac,

FCCC/SBI/2002/INF.14, U Na Oc Ga, Ga, Sa.

URL1: Da Naa Aca Pa 200812, 12 Mac 2007.E c

aa Da Naa Aca Pa Ea C 7

Mac 2007.

://193.88.185.141/Gac/E/a_/CO2_/a/N

AP2__.

URL 2: Naa A a B Ca Ca Pc Pacc Na,://../c/c_cc__aa_a_a..

URL 3: Na aaa a baac 20082012. Pa a

M a Ecc Za M a V, R

O Mb Va 16 2007 Gc (Sc. 2008,

. 132), Dc.://..//A

%20%20%20%20%202008%20%28.%202008%2%20.%2

0132%29%20224283768.

URL 4: S aa aca a aac 20082012. 31 A

2006. M Saab D. C aa 15 Sb 2006.

://...//1/6/06/97/78/984663.

URL 5: ://.1000.c.

URL 6: ://.caa.c./c/.

U.S. Ea Pc Ac (EPA), 2009. D a Eaa

Saab Ca La Raa. Raa Rac Pa

Naa R Maa Rac Laba Oc Rac a D.

EPA/600/R09/093, J.

Vaa L.G., 1990. A aac ac c a aca.

Ea Ja Oaa Rac 48, 28.

Vaac, K. a Waab, J.P., 2004. E aa a aba

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Va N.L. a Iaa E.Y., 2002. Mca c aa c cc

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37

Wa J.J., Y.Y. J, C.F. Za, J.H. Za, 2009. R ca c aa

a aab ca. Rab a Saab E R 13,

22632278.

Wa X. a F Z., 2002. Saab a a aaa

Ca. Rab a Saab E R 6, 395404.

Waa JS., 2003. M /Ca F R c

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Wbc A.P., 1980. T c bc Mbc Oa. I: Fa, G.,

Ga, T. (E.), M Ca Dc Ma, T a Aca. S, B, 468

486.

Ya S. a Sa R.M., 2003. Mca aac c aa

a aab a D. Taa Rac a A,37, 71729.

Zaa S.H., S A., Wa N., Db S., 1998. Mab c a: A

a ca c . Ea Ja Oaa Rac IO7,

507529.

Z W. a Z W., 1997. Ma a a Ca

c. A E 56, 237251.

Z C. a D M., 2002. Mca Dc A FacaDcMa: M a La R. Ja MCa Dc

Aa 11, 167186.


38/59


38

Selection of multi-criteria evaluation method(s) for M/A policyinstruments

. A,

AA ()


39/59


39

AHP Aaca Hac Pc

AMS Cba AHP, AUT a MARTCDM Ca D Mca

DM Dc Ma

ELECTRE Ea E C Taa REa

GWP Gba Wa Pa

LEAP La E Aa Pa S

M/A Ma/Aaa

MAUT MAb U T

MAVT MAb Va T

MCDA MCa Dc Aa

NAMA Naa Aa Ma AcNPV N P Va

PROMETHEE Pc Ra Oaa METH Ec Eaa

SMART S MAb Ra Tc


40/59


40

1.

T a c ca ca a/aaa a

aa. F a b a a

a c a caa aa a

c aa.

I cc a ca cc a aa

aa cc bba b .

Eac M/A c a c c aa aa a b ca/bca

a c a, aca, ca a aa a a a

c MCa Dc Aa (MCDA) cc c

.

T ac a, ca ca a cc a ac

bc ba aaab aa aa a a a

a cc ac ca/c . T, bca b ca c; aaab a a aa

aa a aaba a b .

T c c a a b ac ca ,

a a a b a c ab

c ac b c a . T c

b c a a a Dc Ma (DM) ca

bac b ab a a .

I cc aa a a 2012 ca ca

a b c M/A c ac c

ca a a a c. A a M/A c b a caa aa a c.

2.

T a a a b MCDA . N aa a c

a b, b ca b a a DM a a cc b

(Pa H. a., 2006; Jb A.R. a., 1997). A R B. 1985 c a

c a b cc ca , c

/ /

. T a b a b ac a(B D., Ra L., 2010; Saa P.P. a., 2009). T ca aa a b

c a Dc b.

I aca c aa MCDA cc aa, AHP,

MAUT, SMART, AMS, ELECTRE a PROMETHEE2a ca aa :

(a)

Obc;

(b) A;

PROMETHEE a ca. T a c c a b b

ac ca ca c ( Tab 1).


41/59


41

(c)

M;

() AaaDaaa;

()

Ra a.

T a cc b .

2.1.

A c, M/A c b caac a c

acc cc aa a a a c. T c

a bc aa : ) Oc; ) S ca/bca; )

Ab ca c.

A a ab b aa a b ca/c

. T a c aaca c c a a aa

a b ca/bca, c cc a

a cb c a c. T c a

cc a a a cb. T c aa a

a a c a aaca a

a (Ha I.B. a., 2011). Mab (AHP, MAUT, SMART, AMS)

aa a a c c b , a

(ELECTRE, PROMETHEE) cc a a a ba c

a c (Ga C.D., Tca C., 2007).

A aa , a cc ELECTRE a a ba

a a b aa. S ELECTRE ab

aa a c a c a aa, a cac (a ) (Ha I.B., a., 2011; Wa J.J. a.,

2009; G P. a., 2008; Ga S. a., 2005; Pa S.D., Raacaa M., 2004). S

aa a a caab a aa b a

a aa a a (G P. a., 2008). T a

c c ca a a a b aa bca

a ca aa b a aab (Wa J.J. a., 2009;

Pa S.D., Raacaa M., 2004; Bcca M. a., 2003; G E. a., 2003).

PROMETHEE b a ca ELECTRE a ab aa a

aa. I c a a b aa c a

a ca a a ca (Wa J.J, Ya D.L., 2007; Daa D. a.,

2007). Aa, a aca a a a SMART, MAUTa AHP (Ga J. a R O., 2005; A G. a., 2004; Sa P. a., 1998).

AMS a b ca ca ca c aa. I c a

a aa b a a. F c

cc c M/A c b a ca a

c ac AMS a b c a aac (Ka P.,

Maa D., 2007).

/

A ac c a a , a c c

c; c a aa ca ca. O a


42/59


42

AMS a aa a c ca aa ca ca c a

ac. T acca a b a a

c, Ta & Tba (Bc P., Sa K., 2011). F aa

AHP a ca/bca b a a .

A D ca/bca a b c a

b ca aa. T a ca a c a a cb a

ca aa aca M/A c . T cba AHP a

MAUT a b aa a b LEAP c ca

(P A., 2010; P A., 2006). AMS a b cba GX

aa c ca a a RESE Gc (Ka H.

a., 2011). N cba b a aca ca aa

a a b (Iaa A., Labb A., 2011; Baa M. a., 2010).

C

AMS aa ab c bc aa ca

. AMS a b aca M/A c . I b aa

ac a a a a ca b . I

a cca aa c ac.

2.2.

A ca aaca c cc . U A

a ca aa bac aaca a c

aa.

A MCDA a aaca bac a ab

c b . Sa a ca b a.

AHP aaca (Kaba M.M., 2004). I a aaca a, a a

, ba a ca (Ea H., BTaa L.A., 2008).

MAUT a ca c a ca c (GL J.A.,

Ma Y., 2006). I a c ca3 a a ab,

ab c ca c a ca a ab c.

.

C ..

,

. .

. (Ma G., 2006,

://3.aa.///ca/ba/Dab/_20/A_NAIADE_ba_aac_

_aab_bca.


43/59


43

H

(Aaa J., Ha G., 2009).

SMART a a a ca b ca (OaDbaa C., A

R., 2006). D ca caacc ca accab c ca. I

a c a b a ca c c MAUT aa a

cc (L I. a., 2004).

ELECTRE III a ca MCDA , aaca c ca

c aa (R M., B M., 1998). I a a cc

bac (T S. a., 2010).

T bac a a cc PROMETHEE

a a Ba J.P. a. 1986 a K D W, P P 1996. Ba J.P. a.

a a ab a ELECTRE. I a cc c

a c (T S. a., 2010).

Eac a aaa a abac. T cba a a

c a ca aa aa a

ba c ba DM (B D. a., 2010; T S. a., 2010; Aaa J.,

Ha G., 2009; Maca C. a., 2004). F, aaca bac ac

aa cba. Pb AHP a c

aa a ca ca b SMART (Ga G. a., 2005). T

cba AHP a SMART c a b a aa,

a c a b c aa (T P.E.,

2003). T cc a a c a a c ca c (T P.E.,

2003). I AMS a aaca bac a (AHP, MAUT a

SMART). T c a c a c a AHP b

ca a aa ac cb. T ca c

a aa ac aa bca a .

Ca cb a c a aca: AHP a MAUT cb

aa a ca aa a a (Kaa J., 1993). AHP a SMART

aa a c c (T P.E., 2003) a ca

(H Va D R.C., 2001). AHP a PROMETHEE c a

(Wa J.J., Ya D.L., 2007); c b a a ba a

(Pa M., Baa M., 2009); a (Babc Z., Paba N., 1998).

, , ,

A b abac MAUT a c a a DM a c a a

a b ca c a aca aa a (Pa H.

a., 2006). I AMS b a. T a ca a ; ac c a bca a a aa cb a . Aa, c

(3) a a a a ca a AHP c

cc a . Pc a a a a acca

aa a a a (Iaa A., Labb A., 2011).

Aa, AH

, . (Kaba M.M., 2004). T cc a

AMS . T aca b a ca

4I .

. (L I. a. 2004).


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44

a c a a ac ca/bca a

aab. T a b a ca c b

ca a a ab.

T a caacc ELECTRE TRI a aa ca

(Kaaa C. a., 2009; Da L. a., 2002). Ta ca a c a

ca ca aaa c , c a a aa ac ca c a , c .

F, aa (c a ELECTRE ), a

ca b (Maaa B. a. 2011; Kaaa C. a., 2009). T

c a c ELECTRE TRI, b a aca

c a a c a ac aa ( a

ca) a (Maaa B. a. 2011; Da L. a., 2002). Sa

a a

(Maaa B. a. 2011). I ELECTRE a a

aa, b a ca a ca cca a (T

S. a a., 2010).

PROMETHEE a a ca aaca c cc (Wa

J.J, Ya D.L., 2007; Ba a., 1986). Ic a/ c ca b b

c a ac c (Daa D. a., 2007). T c a b c

b c aca b a c DM (Paaa K.D. a., 2007; Wa J.J, Ya D.L,

2007).

C

AHP a AMS b aa A. AHP

cc a a a cc cc. D

aaa a b cba a. AMS a ca

AHP c.

2.3.

T a c a a MCDA c a (Kab H. a.,

2011; P A., 2010; Ka P., Maa D., 2007; Ga C.D., Tca C., 2007; Jb

A.R. a., 1997):

- S 1: Caaca c a ca (..

a, cc c);

- S 2: Sc a ca a bca;

- S 3: D a ca bca;

- S 4: Da cc a ca a bca;

- S 5: D c ac/aa/ca;

- S 6: Acc ac c ac/aa/ca aa ca/bca;

- S 7: Aa c;

- S 8: Cc aa;

- S 9: Aa a a c.

U M b ca aa a c

a aa .


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45

T a bc ca ca c a a

a aaa a a ac ca ca. A b ac

b a acc aa c . I c

c ca ca c a b

ca b Ca D Mca (CDM) a c b Naa Aa Ma Ac (NAMA)5 UNFCCC. Aa, a

a a c b aca a

c.

F a cb AHP b b. T a aaa AHP

c b (Iaa A., Labb A., 2011; Ba a., 2008). T

aaa a b ac a AHP a b cb a a

a a. I acca c ca a c b cc

ca a bca c cc a

ca (Iaa A., Labb A., 2011).

Dc ac SMART ca b a a a AHP (Kaa J., Kaa A, 2005).AMS a ca aaa . Ua ELECTRE a ca ca

a a c a a ac (Paa A., Kaaa A., 2006;

Daa D., Kaa F., 2006; Sa P. a., 1998). PROMETHEE

b c b. I ca a ca, c DM

(Wa J.J, Ya D.L., 2007).

/

I cca ac c ca aa c aa a a a

a a a ac c. C, a c a

a c c a (B D. a., 2010).

AHP a b acca a a a a a cca6 ,

bca a a a a c aba a, a

cc (W K.W.J., L H., 2008).

O AMS b a c ca/bca M/A c . T a

c ca a/aaa c ca/bca

. T a ba c (3) a a ac

ca c . Bc P. a Sa K. (2011) c ca/bca

AMS ba c c a . T a

aaa a c a c.

T aac AMS c acc. Aaa J. a Ga H. 2003ca c (6) ac a (b

, ca , aca , , aba a

a c). I cc c a AH

,

. Bac T. 2000 (2) . T c c a,

ac aa, a b bc a c

Cac A Dcb 2010.

6A ca a c cac.


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46

. H c a a c ac a (a, ,

c a ) c a a a ba aca.

AHP a aa a aa aac a b (W J.K.W., L H., 2008).A b a MAUT bab b, b c

(Aaa J., Ha G., 2009). O D.L. 2001 a MAUT a SMART a a

a a ca (aa a ac a 0

a b 1) a aa c a a c. I a

cc a SMART a PROMETHEE b a accac.

S aa c LEAP a a

a ca. LEAP ca caca a a cb Gba Wa Pa

(GWP) a. T ca c a (2) a :

Cab (C) a a Cab D (CO2) a. T c b

c AMS, Ea ac. U MAUT c c a

0 100 b a c (Ka P., Maa D., 2006).

LEAP ccc c. I caca a ca N P Va (NPV) a

c ca aa a c ba ca. I c aca c

acc , .. a c a a c. H, NPV ca b

a ac c (, , a, c, cc

, c.). T c b bca AMS c c,

c a . LEAP ca caca ca RES a, a a

a c c. T c ca b ac c cc.

Fa, aa c ca b c a, a ca aa c.

T ca b aca ab.

F bca a c a aaab, a a aa aa a aaba ca b MAUT a SMART c AMS

aca. AMS ca a aa a aa aa.

I a ELECTRE III a a a cc bac

a c ca c a aaab (Paa A., Kaaa

A., 2008).

PROMETHEE ca a aa a aab accac a ca

a (Baa M. a., 2010; O D.L., 2001).

S aa c b (Ba M. a., 2008).

S ac c ca (Paa A., Kaaa A., 2008). Aa,

aa a ca ac

ac ( ca ) (Aa A., Caa S., 2011). A a aca

a .

C

AMS c b aa.


47/59


47

2.4.

T ac a ca: a ; a

.

E

A a cc c a MCDA ac

aab (L E., 2007; Ga S. a., 2005). Sc ca aa a

b M/A c c, c

b a a a .

Caa aa MCDM aac a ca AHP b a ca

c, a a a b (H W. a., 2010; Babc Z.,

Paba N., 1998). I a a c c a caca

ca a c ac a c a aca

ca MAUT a SMART a c

ca MAUT/MAVT a SMART (Aaa J., Ha G., 2009; P D. a., 2007).

M Ab U T (MAUT) a c c a b S

M Ab Ra Tc (SMART), c b a , a

b a (P D. a., 2007). F MAUT a abac ac c

a c, c c ca ca

a (Pa S.D., Raacaa M., 2004).

O ac c MAUT a SMART a a ca

c a caac a c, aa a aca

aac ca (Jb A.R. a., 1997).

F AMS Bc P. a Sa K. 2011 a a aa

caca c; ab a ca bac.

EECE (.. EECE III)

D (Bc N. a., 2010). M cca, ca

a aa a b a c a aca a

DM a a a a b ca (B A. J. a. 2010). I

ca aa GHG c Hc c a

a a bca a c ( ab) DM

(G E. a., 2003). T aa c caac a a a

cca cca DM (T S. a., 2010).

PROMETHEE a b b DM a b aa b aa

ca ELECTRE III (Baa M. a., 2010). I caac b ca c

(Wa J.J. a., 2009).

B ELECTRE a PROMETHEE a a a c ca

aa a a aa a a

(L I. a., 2004). T a b ca MAUT a AHP.

U a ca a cc ca a

a aa c a a DM, aca

b a ( b ca a aa) (L E., 2007; Ka P.,


48/59


48

Maa D., 2006). O aaa AHP

,

(S Y.C. a., 2010). T aaa ca b c b

c c a aac a aa (S Y.C. a., 2011).

SMART a c a DM c a a ca

a b a ca (H Va D R.C., 2001).

I AMS c ca a bca ac

c. T c c b a ca.

T aaa ELECTRE a a a ab a

ca, a a ca c a (Q X.S. a.,

2008). ELECTRE c a a ( a ca)

a . T ac DM a b a

/ c c. N, a abac

a (Pa H. a., 2006). I a ca aa

GHG c Hc c ac c a

aca a a a D ca c a cc (G E. a., 2003).

C

AMS c b aa .

2.5.

F aca M/A ca ca c b a b

a ac . T a c a a:

-

Cc aa a ca ca c a, a, , ac a a (6) ca aa . Ca c ca

c bc (a ca) c

a c;

- Dcb c a a MCDA .

Pa ca ca, b aa c, c

RES/ cc caac c (A H.H., Naa F.A S., 2009; Kaaa C. a.,

2009; Da H. a. 2006; Daa D. a., 2006; Paa A., Kaaa A., 2006;

Hb R. a., 2003; Bcca M. a., 2003; Ga M, L V., 2000).

Tab 1 c ac a a a a ca

M/A c . I a aa M/A c MCDA c a ca c (Iaa A.,

Labb A., 2011; Baa M. a., 2010).

C

AHP a c aca, b PROMETHEE, ELECTRE a

AMS. I b a AMS a a ca , b a

aa aca aa.


49/59

PROMITHEAS-4: Knowledge transfer and research needs for preparing mportfolios

Table 1: A /A

. ()

1.

T c a RES Taa AHP S Y.C.

2.

T b c Pac c

C

AHP, ELECTRE, PROMETHEE T

3. T c ca cab Ba

(Taa)

AHP a MAVT P

4.

S a c AHP B

5. T c (, aa,

) P

AHP a PROMETHEE B P.

6. EUETS ac EU b Sa AMS Ka

7. T a ca c ac Gc AMS Ka

8. T c ca a RESE Gc AMS Ka

9.

T GHG E Ma Pc I Ta

a Tba

AMS Bc

10. S aaa ac a ca a c

Ga ba Caaa

ELECTRE III Q X.S.

11.

T CO2c a 20002010

G c

ELECTRE TRI G

12. T cc a ELECTRE TRI N L.P

13.

F ca ca RES Aa PROMETHEE Ma

14. F ca a c Gc PROMETHEE Daa


50/59

PROMITHEAS-4: Knowledge transfer and researchneeds for preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios

50

A c cb , aaab

a a .

3.

Cc cc ac a ca

a a. SMART, c MAUT (M Ab U

T), a b a PROMETHEE, b ELECTRE aa

ca . O a, PROMETHEE a

a ELECTRE a a c a

bc a ca a ac c (A A.G. a., 2004).

I c a b, Sa a. (1998) c PROMETHEE,

SMART, a ELECTRE III b aca ab (A A.G. a., 2004). ELECTRE2,

PROMETHEE2, AHP, C Pa a EXPROM2 c b

ca Caa ba Kaa, Ia. A

aac, aa a a ca a c

a (Aaa J., Ha G., 2009).

Ga J. a R O. 2005 a PROMETHEE, MAUT, a AHP a

c ab ca aa, ca, c, a cc. T

, a a a aa, ca,

b a b a aa.

T c ca bc, a, , aaa

aaa, a a a aca a Tab 2. AMS

cc Dc b.


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PROMITHEAS-4: Knowledge transfer and research needs for preparing mportfolios

2: . (+, 0, ), (

(+, 0, ).

A A A A

H + H + H + H +

/ L L L H +

A H 0 H 0 L H 0

A

H H Ma + H

, , , H Ma + Ma + H +

H + Ma Ma + H +

/

H + Ma Ma H +

H H 0 H 0 H 0

H H 0 H 0 H

A

E H H + H + H +

Ma H H H +

A H + L + L Ma

H 0 H 0 H 0 H 0


52/59


52

D

PROMETHEE a b Ba (1982) a a b Vc a Ba

(1985) (Baa M. a., 2010; Wa J.J. a., 2009). I a c

a aa ELECTRE. PROMETHEE I aa a

aa a PROMETHEE II c a. T a a PROMETHEE III, IV,

V a VI (Baa M. a., 2010).

A

T c c P (A, A) c a c c

b aa A a A a c . T c aaca a

( , ) ( , )j i kd f A j f A j= (1)

(A,) a (A,) a aa cc c .

PROMETHEE a bac c c7 P (A, A) b

ca aa aa ca: 1. a c, 2. Ua c, 3. V

a c, 4. c, 5. Va c c a 6. Gaa

c (Ba a., 1986).

F ac c c ( a ca), a a c ,

; a a c c , ; a a a a ab a , , a b a (Baa M. a., 2010). T

aa a c a a c c

. I c a a a c c

c c.

Mca c a a aa Aa A a

1

1

( , )

( , )

n

j j i k

j

i k n

j

j

w p A A

A

w

=

=

=

(2)

P (A,A) c c aa Aa A.

T c ( ) caca a

1

( ) ( , ), 1,2,...m

i i k

k

k m +

=

= = (3)

a c ( a) a

T a a ca a ca c (Wa J.J. a., 2009).


53/59


53

1

( ) ( , ), 1,2,...m

i k i

k

k m

=

= = (4)

F a aa A

( ) ( ) ( )i i i

A + = (5)

T a () ca c b aa.

T bac cc PROMETHEE a ca aa a ac

c. I a a ab cc a

c c. PROMETHEE II a a DM ab a

cc aa, a a b ca a

(Baa M. a., 2010).

T bac a: ) Da c ba a

ca ) aca c c ac c; ) caca ca c ( ba c ); ) caca a

a ) caca a c aa a

aa ba c c (Baa M. a., 2010; Aaa J.,

Ha G., 2009).

T a aca a b : DECISION LAB a PROMCALC8(Baa M.

a., 2010; Maca C. a., 2004). T c

PROMETHEE.

A

T a b a a aa a a,

a a aa, b a aca aa, c, c

a aa, aac a ab, ca a c (ca, ,

c) (T S. a., 2010; Baa M. a., 2010).

8://.aa./a.


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54

A H. Ha, Naa F. A Saba, 2009, D a b a

c Ca Ja, B a E 44, . 10531064.Aaa Jaaa, Ha Ga, 2009, A cca ca c a

ca c aa a a, Ecca Ecc

68, . 25352548.

Aaa Jaaa, Ha Ga, 2003, T Aac Hac Pc

ca a c a a, F Pc a

Ecc 5, Pa 1326.

Aa Aa, Caa S. Saa, 2011, U AHP a D Sa

aa aab a , Ea M & Sa 26, 787

796.A A. G, Maa La, K S a Gb Da, 2004, Aca

Mca Dc Ma M A Qa Mc

Ra H Bba, Aaa, E. Sc. Tc. 38, 26092616.

Babc Za, Paba N, 1998, Ra ba ca aa,

I. J. Oc Ecc 5657, . 2935.

Bcca M., Ca M., Ma M., 2003, Dca a. Aca

Ec a a ab c,

Rab E 28, . 20632087.

Baa Ma, Kaa R.B., Aba A., Aa M., 2010, PROMETHEE: A

c a a aca, Ea Ja

Oaa Rac 200, . 198215.

Ba Maa, Ca Aa, Ea Ma, Z P, 2007, A Aac Hac

Pc T Eaa Ta Pc Rc Ca Ca Iac,

Fa E Ec Ma W Pa 61.

Ba M., Ca M., Ma M., 2003, Dca a. Aca

Ec a a ab c,

Rab E 28, . 20632087.

Bc P. a Sa K., 2011, A MCa Aa Aac Ca GHG

E Ma Pc I P Ga Sc Ta &

Tba aaab a: ://.../5/.

Bc Naaa, Ac Ia, PccTa Saa, 2010, O cc

a aab aa ELECTRE , Ecca

Ecc 69, . 11761186.

B C. P, Vacc A, 2004, A acac a ca a

GHG aba MCDA: T Pa ca, Ea Ja

Oaa Rac 152, . 641654.


55/59


56/59


56

GL J.A., Ma Y., 2006, Mca a a a a

ba : A Sa ca , Ea Ja Oaa Rac 173, . 313

336.

Ga M, L V., 2000, A PROMETHEE c a : Ra aa a c, Ea Ja

Oaa Rac 123, . 606613.

Hb Ra, S C, Sa L, H C Aa CDM c

Ua: Aca a Saab A T, 2003,

://...c/bca/c/CDM_Saab_ETH_Ua..

H Wa, X Xa, D K. Paaa, Mca c a aac

aa a c: A a , Ea Ja Oaa

Rac 202, . 1624.

H Va D R.C., Dca G Dc Ma: A N Aca

G Mb W Mca AHP a SMART, G Dc aNa 10, 2001, . 275286, K Acac Pb.

Ha B. I, K J, L I, 2011, Mca c aa

a cc: T a aca a , Scc Ta

E, ac .

Iaa A, Labb Aa, 2011, R a aac

ac c, E S Aca 38, . 1433614345.

Ia G, Ba Gc, 2007, U a ca c a aac

aa b aa, C Saa & Iac 29, . 265274.

Jb R. A, La A, K M. H, Kaa S, Abac J. Ca,

1997, Fb ( b) a a a: a ca ca

c aa a cb aa, Ecca Ecc 22, . 123140.

Kaba M.M., 2004, Dc ca : a aac

ac c aac, E Pc 32, 11511158.

Kaa J, Kaa Aa, 2005, M ca c aa

aac, a, a c a, F Ec a Maa

207, . 133143.

Kaa J, 1993, A ab c aa a

ca aa a a, F Ec a aa, 59, . 271288.

Kaaa Caa, Da Ha, Paa J, 2009, Dc ca

ca a c aab , E

Saab D 13, . 7784.

K D W, P P, 1996, A PROMETHEE ca

, Ea Ja Oaa Rac 89, . 457461.

Ka P, Maa D, 2007, A ca aa ca

ca a c , E Pc 35, a 62356257.


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57

Ka P, Maa D, 2006, Mca aa ca c

ac, Ja MCa Dc Aa, 14, a 35 53.

Ka H., Ka B., Ka P., 2011, Eaa c ca

RESE a Gc, E Pc 39, 53885398.L I., Va A., Ja S., Sa T.P., K G., B T., 2004, Mca c

aa: a a c a c a caa ,

Caa R A a Ea Dc Ma, .1554, K

Acac Pb.

L E, 2007, U ca c aa a

b, Rab a Saab E R 11, . 15841595.

Maca Ca, Sa Ja, Bc D Kaa a Vb Aa, 2004, PROMETHEE

a AHP: aa ca aa. S

PROMETHEE a AHP, Ea Ja Oaa Rac 153, . 307

317.

Ma Ra, Ka Kaaa, Sa S, 2007, N a a

aaa aa ca: T ca ab Aa, E

Pc 35, . 60606074.

Maaa Baa, Zaa Baa, Kaca Ra, 2011, Ra

bc a a ca c

aa, E S Aca 38, . 78517863.

Ma G, 2006, A NAINADE ba aac aab bca, I. J.

Ea Tc a Maa,

://3..//////20/AAA

.

N L P, Ma G A, A H Ca, Da Ca L, 2008,

A ca c aac ac cc,

E Pc, V 36, I 7, . 23512363.

O L. Da, 2001, Ca ca c

c, Ea Ja Oaa Rac 130, . 576587.

OaDbaa Ca a A Rca, 2006, A a aab

aa ca c, IABSE H C,

Cab, 1012 J 2006, Fac 10 E Saab C.

Paa A, Kaaa Aaa, 2008, Aca ca aa

ELECTRE III a ca , Oa 36, .

766776.

Paaa D. Ka, Na Ka, Da Ha, Paa J, 2007,

A ab c EU acc b a,

E C a aa 48, . 890897.


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58

P D., Pa O., A T., Na T., 2007, M M Ca Dc Ma

c c c a, Dc

S S 43, . 16151629.

P Aa, 2010, Ia a cab a c

: Pc ca cab c Ba, E Pc 38,48084817.

P Aa, 2006, E Aa Saab MaC, Lca T,

Sc Ia E a aa Da E Tc, Ra

I Tc, Sc, S.

Pa M, Baa Ma, 2009, Sc B M D

Uaa (UF) Mba Da I: A Aca AHP a PROMETHEE,

Iaa Ja E, V 3, I 5, . 116142, ISSN: 19852312.

Pa S. D., Raacaa M., 2004, Aca ca c a aab a A , Rab a Saab E R 8, .

365381.

Pa Hac, Haaab Da, Ma G, V R, 2006, Sc

a Aa MCa Dc Aa Tc Rab E Pa,

E Sc 193, Pa B, 1:181193, ISSN: 1556 7249 /15567275 , DOI:

101080/009083190881607.

Q X.S., Ha G.H., Caa A., N X.H., L Q.G., 2008, A MCDMba

caca ac a a aaa a A ca Ga

Ba, Caaa, E S Aca 34, 21642179.

R Ma, B Mca, 1998, A a ca ELECTRE III, Ea Ja Oaa Rac 107, . 552563.

R, B., 1985. M Mc 'A a Dc. Ecca, Pa.

Saa P. Pa, Qaa S. Ca, Pa A. Ga, Ia L. Ma, 2009,

Paca ca aa aa a ac aa. A

ca Ca S (Maaa), Ecca Ecc 68, . 9901005.

Sa Pa, Ha Ja, Laa R, 1998, Ca ca

c a b, Ea Ja Oaa Rac 104,

. 485496.

S YC, C Ja Ca, L T.R. Gac, 2011, T ab c ac E c a, E 36, . 25892598.

T Saa, F G, Ta Saa, 2010, T ca

c a RES c

C, A , E Pc 38, 77837792.

T Pc E., 2003, Pa Sc A Fa Eaa.

Aaab a: ://...a/1202/

Wa JaJa, J YY, Za CFa, Za JH, 2009, R

ca c aa a aab ca, Rab a

Saab E R 13, 22632278.


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Wa JaJ, Ya DL, 2007, U a b ca c a

a c, C & Oa Rac 34, . 36913700.

W K.W. J, L H, 2008, Aca aac ac c (AHP)

ca aa c b , B a

E 43, . 108125.

Documents

Overview and Selection of Multicriteria Evaluation Methods for Mitigation-Adaptation Policy Instruments