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POP 101

2.1 Kids:A Stable Population

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Everyone needs to be replaced

To maintain a stable population, every

individual needs someone to take their

place when they die

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How are people replaced?

Women can havekids.

Men cant.

!

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Therefore . . .

Each woman needs to have 2 kids, one to

replace her, and one to replace the man.

Since men cant reproduce, the number of

women needs to remain constant for a population

to remain stable.* sigh *

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Measures, in a given population, the average

number of children born per woman over her

lifetime

Indicates if that population is growing or

shrinking

The Total Fertility Rate

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Slightly more boys tend to be born than girls,

therefore it takes slightly more than 2 kids per

woman to ensure that enough girls are born to

replace their mothers.

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TFR 2.1

Assuming no child mortality or disaster, a total

fertility rate of 2.1 will be enough to keep a

population stable

TFR 2.1 children/woman

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. . . At least, in a perfect world.

War, famine, disease, and child mortality mean

that more children need to be born in some

places, to give a better chance of some

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Developing world TFR 3.3

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Not all women have children . . .

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. . . But we still need balance.

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Which means some women

need toh

ave more kids

Since every woman needs to have 2 kids tomaintain a stable population, if 3 women donthave any, then one woman needs to have 8!

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If they dont . . .

A sub-replacement TFR means thatsucceeding generations will shrinkexponentially

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. . . Society fails.

Played out over time, there will be fewer and feweryoung workers to support the increasing number of

retiring workers.

Leading to economic collapse and societal

breakdown

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Kuwait 2.76

Israel 2.75

Qatar 2.45

United Arab Emirates 2.42

New Zealand 2.1

United States 2.05

France 1.98

Brunei 1.91

Iceland 1.9

Ireland 1.85

Australia 1.78

Norway 1.78

Luxembourg 1.78

Germany 1.41

Austria 1.39

Greece 1.37

Andorra 1.33

Italy 1.31

Spain 1.31

Slovenia 1.28

Czech Republic 1.24

Japan 1.21

Korea, South 1.21

Singapore 1.09

Hong Kong 1.02

Denmark 1.74

Finland 1.73

Barbados 1.68

Sweden 1.67

Netherlands 1.66

United Kingdom 1.66

Belgium 1.65

Canada 1.58

Liechtenstein 1.52

Malta 1.51

Portugal 1.49

Cyprus 1.45

Switzerland 1.45

Its already happening.

Only 5 of the worlds 38 developed countrieshave a TFR at or above replacement.

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The Future is bleak.

These societies are facing a veryreal danger: extinction.

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References

CIA World Factbook

Read it online: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-

factbook/index.html

U.NHuman Development Report 2009 (page 213)Read it online: http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2009_EN_Complete.pdf

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