10/31/2015 OvercomingthestasisinNepalTheHindu

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/overcomingthestasisinnepal/article7823808.ece?css=print 1/3

OPINIONLEAD

Published:October31,201500:38IST|Updated:October31,201504:12ISTOctober31,2015

OvercomingthestasisinNepalRakeshSood

APWhentheConstitutionwasfinallypassed,forsome,therewasjustasenseofreliefthatthesevenyearlongexercisewasfinallyreachingaconclusionafterrepeatedfalsestartsforothers,therewasanairoftriumphalism.NepalesepeoplecelebratetheadoptionofthecountrysnewConstitution,outsidetheConstituentAssemblyHallinKathmandu.

TheimpasseinIndiaNepalrelationsduetotheovertIndiansupportfortheMadhesisandtheconsequentassertionofNepalinationalismdoesnotportendwellforacountrysufferingfromeconomicdifficulties.ReneweddialoguebetweentheactorstheNepaligovernment,theMadhesisandIndiaisamust

ItisnowoveramonthsinceNepalpromulgateditsnewConstitution.WhentheConstitutionwasfinallypassed,forsome,therewasjustasenseofreliefthatthesevenyearlongexercisewasfinallyreachingaconclusionafterrepeatedfalsestartsforothers,therewasanairoftriumphalism.However,fortheMadhesis,theJanajatisandtheTharus,whohavetraditionallybeenthedisadvantagedgroups,therewasasenseofbetrayal.

10/31/2015 OvercomingthestasisinNepalTheHindu

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/overcomingthestasisinnepal/article7823808.ece?css=print 2/3

Intheweeksthatfollowed,theKathmandubasedpoliticalleadershipwaspreoccupiedwithjockeyingforpositionsinthenewgovernmentwhilethesimmeringsenseofalienationinTeraiexplodedintoanagitationthathasclaimedmorethanfortylives.TheIndianpolicyofovertlybackingthedemandsoftheMadhesisledtoanupsurgeofNepalinationalism,coupledwithantiIndianism.Movementofgoods,includingessentialslikepetroleumproducts,cametoahalt.TheIndiangovernmentblamedthedeterioratinglawandordersituationwhileNepalisaccusedIndiaofimposingablockade.

NeedformoderationNowthatNepalhasanewgovernmentledbyPrimeMinisterK.P.Oli,andanewPresidentandSpeaker,theshapeofthenewpoliticaldispensationisemerging.ItistimethatallsidestheNepaligovernmentanditspoliticalleadership,theagitatingMadhesisandtheIndiangovernmentclimbdownfromtheirstatedpositions,eschewrhetoricandopendialoguetoresolveissues..

NepalhasexperimentedwithfourConstitutionsandtwointerimConstitutionssince1948nevertheless,the2015ConstitutionisuniqueasitestablishesNepalasafederalrepublicforthefirsttime.TheexercisewastobecompletedbyMay2010butreconcilingtheideasofaliberalfederalismwithMaoistideology,inaprimarilyconservativeHindunation,tookanadditionalfiveyears.

Duringthisperiod,theNepaliCongress,theCommunistPartyofNepal(UnifiedMarxistLeninist)[CPN(UML)]andtheMaoistsplayedmusicalchairswiththePrimeMinisterskursi.G.P.KoiralaandSushilKoiralafromtheNCPushpaKamalDahalPrachandaandBaburamBhattaraifromtheMaoistsandMadhavNepalandJhalaNathKhanalfromtheUMLtookturnsatheadingthegovernmentbetween2008andnow.Meanwhile,MaoistandMadhesiforcesthathadledthedemandforafederalrepublicfracturedandweakened.OnceexPrimeMinisterSushilKoiralaconcededthathewouldstepdownandyieldtheprimeministershiptoaleaderfromhiscoalitionpartner,theUML,K.P.Olibecameimpatient.

Together,thebigthreepartiestheNC,theUMLandtheMaoistshadthenumberstopushthroughtheConstitutionandMr.Olibegantopushforfasttrackingtheprocess.UnwillingtotrustMr.Koirala,hestitchedupadealwiththeMaoiststosupporthisclaim.OnsariGharti,aMaoistJanajatileaderandwifeofBarshaManPun,aPrachandaloyalist,wasbackedbyMr.OliforthepostoftheSpeaker.TheVicePresidentspost,forwhichelectionsaretobeheldonOctober31,islikelytogotoaMaoistleader.

ThefactthatSushilKoiralabacktrackedonhisdealwithMr.OliandgothisowncandidatureforprimeministershipendorsedbytheNConlydroveMr.Olitofindotherimprobableallies,enoughtoensurehisvictoryintheelectionsonOctober11,makinghimNepals38thPrimeMinister.KamalThapasroyalistgroup,RashtriyaPrajatantraPartyNepal[(RPPN)],with25seats,hadvotedagainsttheadoptionoftheConstitutionwhileBijayaGachchhadarsTharuMadhesigroup,theMadhesiPeoplesRightsForumDemocratic[(MJFD)],with14seats,hadboycottedthesessionwithotherMadhesigroups.BothjoinedPrimeMinisterOlisCabinetasDeputyPrimeMinisters.

Mr.OliisbothapragmaticanddecisiveleaderwhowasseenasaneffectiveHomeMinisterearlierandashrewdForeignMinisterlater,tenuresduringwhichhebuiltagoodrelationshipwithNewDelhi.Havingstartedhispoliticalcareerinthe1970sasaNaxaliteandhavingspent14yearsinjail,heemergedinthe1990sasapromisingUMLleader,committedtomultipartydemocracy,thoughheisnowperceivedasmovingmoretotheRight.

TheelectionofBidhyaBhandariasthePresidentofNepalonOctober28reflectsPrimeMinisterOlisgrowingclout.Ms.BhandarihasbeenaclosepoliticalcomradeofMr.Olieversincesheenteredactivepolitics,aftertheuntimelydeathofherhusbandMadanBhandariinacaraccidentin1993.MadanBhandariwasacharismaticleaderandasGeneralSecretaryoftheUMLhadplayedakeyroleinestablishingmultipartydemocracyafterthefirstJanAndolanin1990.HisaccidentaldeathspawnedmanyconspiracytheoriesthoughaCommissionestablishedtoinvestigatethematterconcludedthatitwasanaccidentaldeath.In200910,Ms.BhandariwasmadetheDefenceMinisterinMadhavKumarNepalsCabinet,reportedlyatMr.Olissuggestion.

Meanwhile,thesituationintheTeraihasworsened.Economicactivityhasbeenatastandstillformorethantwomonths.Withfactoriesclosed,schoolsandcollegesshut,hospitalsrunningshortofsuppliesandacuteshortagesofpetrol,dieselandcookinggasforcingpeopletousefirewoodandcleanuptheiroldbicycles,thishasbeenoneofthebleakestfestivalseasonsthatNepalishaveendured.Madhesishave,meanwhile,gearedupforthelonghaul.Thefactthattheyhavebeenabletosustaintheagitationdespitebeingtheworstaffected,withoutanycoerciveapparatus,speaksvolumesabouttheiraccumulatedresentment.

ManyoftheMadhesileadersleadingthemovementweretaintedasbeingcorruptandopportunists,butwiththeagitationtheyhavecapturedthemoodofalienation.Thosekilledintheagitationarebeingcalledmartyrsandmartyrscreatecauses..FromEkMadheshekPradesh,theMadhesishavealreadyacceptedtwoMadhesiprovinces.Today,thedisagreementisonlyoverfivedistricts,threeintheeast(Sunsari,MorangandJhapa)andtwointhewest(KanchanpurandKailali).ExcludingSunsaritakesawaythekeybordertownofBiratnagarandtheKosibasinwhileKailalihasalargeTharupopulationwhichitshareswithneighbouringBardiya.Thesearenotinsurmountabledemands.

Theotherissuepertainstodefiningelectoralconstituencies.The2015Constitutionreducestheweightagegiventoproportionalrepresentation.Teraiconstitutes51percentofthepopulationbutaccordingtocalculations,itwouldcurrentlygetonly62outofatotalof165seatsunderthefirstpastthepostsystem,insteadof83,asperitspopulation.ThenotionoffixingelectoralconstituenciesaftertakingintoaccountpopulationandgeographywasintendedtoensurethatthesparselypopulatedtransHimalayandistrictsarenotleftoutofthedemocraticprocess.TheoutgoinggovernmenthadworkedoutacompromisesafeguardingtheinterestsofsixmountaindistrictswhileraisingthenumberofTeraiconstituenciesto79.Mr.Olineedstorevivethisproposal.

Citizenshipandidentity

CitizenshiphaslongbeenanemotiveissueamongtheMadhesisastheyoftenmarryIndiansfromthenortherndistrictsofBiharandUttarPradeshandspousesofNepalicitizensbecomenaturalisedNepalicitizens.However,thereisadiscriminatoryprovisionregardingtheoffspringofsuchmarriages.ChildrenofaNepalimalemarryingaforeignerareNepalisbydescentwhereasifaNepaliwomanmarriesaforeigner,theirchildrenarenaturalisedNepaliswhichbarsthemfromimportantandpowerfulconstitutionalpositions.ThisisalsoanissuethathasbeentakenupbywomensgroupsonthegroundsthatitviolatesthebasicprincipleofequalityguaranteedbytheConstitution.

10/31/2015 OvercomingthestasisinNepalTheHindu

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/overcomingthestasisinnepal/article7823808.ece?css=print 3/3

However,iftheperceptionthatKathmanduisjustbuyingtimetakeshold,Madhesidemandswillstartsnowballing,makingacompromisemoredifficult.

AsoftenhappenswheninternalpoliticsinNepalgetspolarised,Indiabecomesaconvenientscapegoat.TheperceptionthatIndiahasimposedavirtualblockadeinsupportoftheMadhesicauseisunhelpful,forbothIndiaNepalrelationsandfortheMadhesicause.DeputyPrimeMinisterThapasvisitlastweekdidnothelpmattersbecausehecouldnotindicatehowhisgovernmentplannedtoresolveissuesandinwhattimeframe.

Meanwhile,Mr.OliisbeingeggedontoplaytheChinacard.Thegrantofa1000metrictonnes(MT)ofpetroleumproductsbyChinamayresonatewellwithNepalinationalistsmomentarilybutMr.OliknowsthatitisnotasubstituteforoverahundredtankersadayfromIndiawhichusedtogettransportedthroughBirgunjeveryday.

Ontheotherhand,needlesslystokingperceptionsofantiIndianismishardlyconsistentwithIndianPrimeMinisterNarendraModisneighbourhoodfirstforeignpolicy.JustasIndiahastobesupportiveoflegitimateMadhesiaspirations,theNepalielitehastocometotermswiththefacteveryagitatingNepalipoliticalgroup,fromtheNepaliCongress(NC)inthe1950stotheMaoistsinthe1990s,hastakenadvantageof1800kmlongIndiaNepalopenborderforrefugeinIndiaandtoseekinterventionontheirbehalf.

WhilethefocushasbeenontheMadhesiagitation,theJanajatidemandsarenodifferent.UnliketheMadhesiswhoshunarms,theJanajatisareusedtofightingandformedamajorchunkoftheMaoistcadres.AJanajatiagitationcouldthrowNepalintoaconvulsionastheyaregeographicallywidespread.

Mr.OlisfirstchallengeistoaddressthehurtsentimentamongtheMadhesi,theJanajatiandtheTharucommunitiestacklingtheactualissueswillthenbecomeeasier.ThisiswhereIndiacanandshouldplayasupportiverole.Mr.Moditooneedstochangetracksfromthepresentimageofaregionalbully,heneedstorevivethevisionthathepresentedlastAugustinKathmanduofafriendlyandgenerousneighbourworkingtowardsmutuallybeneficialrelations.

(RakeshSood,thePrimeMinistersspecialenvoyfordisarmamentandnonproliferationtillMay2014,isaformerAmbassadortoNepal.Email:rakeshsood2001@yahoo.com.)

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