October 8, 2018

“Overall, wholesale market values were relatively steady last week with the exception of some luxury and sporty car segments.”

Anil Goyal, Executive Vice President, Operations

Model Years: 2010-2016, Volume Weighted Wholesale Average Values, Weekly Change from 9/28/18 to 10/5/18

Sporty Cars Depreciated More

• Volume-weighted, overall car segment values decreased by 0.21% last week. In comparison, the

market values had decreased by 0.09% on average during the prior 4-week period.

• In cars, the Premium Sporty Car segment experienced the biggest drop.

• Volume-weighted, overall truck segment (including pickups, SUVs and vans) values decreased by

0.16% last week. In comparison, the market values had decreased by 0.07% on average during the

prior 4-week period.

• In trucks, the Full-Size Luxury Crossover/SUV segment performed the worst.

-$7-0.12%

-$19-0.24%

-$4-0.04%

-$28-0.24%

-$41-0.26%

-$39-0.21%

-$117-0.34%

-$52-0.34%

-$209-0.53%

-$23CARS

-0.21%

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0%

WEE

KLY

CH

AN

GE

+$0+0.00% -$10

-0.08% -$29-0.18%

-$7-0.03%

-$15-0.09%

-$17-0.09%

-$64-0.31%

-$192-0.61%

-$34-0.27%

-$20-0.22%

+$36+0.25%

-$37-0.23%

-$25-0.13%

-$26TRUCKS-0.16%

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0%

+0.2%

+0.4%

WEE

KLY

CH

AN

GE

2

October 8, 2018

Sentiment from the Auction Lanes Our editors and personnel attend several auctions every week across the country to provide key insights:

“Retail sales are slow, indicating a return to the more normal fall automotive season. Compact SUVs were the big attraction at the auction today.” James in TN

“Today marked the first time in a long time that I heard the term “market adjustment” mentioned. Prices across the board were just OK.” Bob in MA

“The weather has turned more fall like setting the tone for a softer market. Dealers were reporting a weaker retail market this week.” Mark in MI

“Dealers are still buying as business remains strong especially for the nice, cleaner units.” Tim in IN

“The auctioneers and several remarketers noted that prices were down slightly.” Norm in IL

12-Month Depreciation by Segment Oct 1, 2017 to Oct 1, 2018

Source: Black Book Visual Analytics

The car segments, commercial vans, and pickup trucks had the lowest depreciation in the last twelve months,

while luxury vehicles showed the highest depreciation.

Vehicle Highlight

2019 Chevrolet Malibu offers a new 1.5L Turbo engine with a CVT and a 2.0L Turbo engine with a 9-speed transmission. MSRP including destination ranges from $22,965 (L trim) to $32,545 (Premier trim). The main competitors include the Ford Fusion, Toyota Camry, Nissan Altima, and Kia Optima.

This week’s report includes our Monthly Edition Supplement on Specialty Markets.

3

October 8, 2018

Rest in Peace Bandit “As I’m sure you’re aware, Burt Reynolds passed away early in September. What is

not as well known is his impact on the performance car world. When Smokey and

the Bandit was released, performance cars were at a low point, and the Pontiac

Trans Am was really the only one still in the game. The exposure it received revitalized the entire genre

and made fast cars ‘cool’ again, leading to a resurgence we are still enjoying to this day.”

Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty Markets

• Mecum’s Harrisburg, Pennsylvania auction was very successful, bringing in over $24,000,000 on the sale of 763 collectible vehicles with a strong sell through ratio of nearly 80%. Their Louisville, Kentucky sale was quite a bit smaller at $8,400,000, but had a good sales rate of 74% with 417 of 562 vehicles finding new homes.

• Worldwide’s The Auburn Auction was held over Labor Day weekend once again, and a very impressive 99% of all offered lots were declared sold, including Paul McCartney’s 1965 Mini Cooper S, which brought $236,500.

• RM Sotheby’s London auction totaled roughly $13,000,000, while their Auburn sale generated $21,700,000.

Notable Recent Auction Sales Include:

2018 Dodge Challenger SRT Demon $132,000 (Mecum)

1965 Buick Riviera Gran Sport $71,500 (Mecum)

2003 Ferrari Enzo $2,565,000 (RM Sotheby’s)

1993 Porsche 911 Carrera RS 3.8 $1,215,000 (RM Sotheby’s)

1971 Iso Grifo 7-Litre Coupe $650,000 (RM Sotheby’s)

1973 Pontiac Trans Am SD455 Coupe $170,000 (Worldwide)

1957 Mercedes 300SL Roadster $852,500 (RM Sotheby’s)

2006 Ford GT Coupe $357,500 (RM Sotheby’s)

1967 Chevrolet Corvette 427 Convertible $143,000 (Mecum)

2007 Ferrari F430 Spider $137,500 (Mecum)

Bandit Trans Am. Courtesy of Barrett Jackson.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Classic Trucks and SUVs

SPECIALTY MARKETS:

COLLECTIBLE CARS

4

October 8, 2018

Towable Values Back Off As Fall Approaches

“The average selling price of towables at auction last month dropped nearly ten

percent, which is a surprise, given their recent market trends. However, it’s

important to note that they are still above where they were three months ago, and roughly the same as

they have been for most of the year. We’ll be keeping an eye on them to see if the market is truly

softening, perhaps due to oversupply on the new side, or if last month was an anomaly.” Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty Markets

For Motor Homes (including Class A, B, and C)

• Average selling price was $44,484 up $34 (0.001%) from the previous month

• One year ago, the average selling price was $48,062

• Auction volume was down 17% from the previous month. The average model year was 2009.

For Towables (including Travel Trailers and Fifth Wheels)

• Average selling price was $13,558, down $1,463 (9.7%) from the previous month

• One year ago, the average selling price was $14,052

• Auction volume was up 4% from the previous month. The average model year was 2009.

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

Jan

-14

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay Jun

Jul

Au

gSe

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

-15

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ayJu

ne

July

Au

gSe

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

-16

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ayJu

ne

July

Au

gSe

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

-17

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ayJu

ne

July

Au

gSe

pO

ctN

ov

De

cJa

n-1

8Fe

bM

arA

pr

May

Jun

eJu

lyA

ugu

st

Motor Home Value Trends

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

Jan

-14

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay Jun

Jul

Au

gSe

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

-15

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ayJu

ne

July

Au

gSe

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

-16

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ayJu

ne

July

Au

gSe

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

-17

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ayJu

ne

July

Au

gSe

pO

ctN

ov

De

cJa

n-1

8Fe

bM

arA

pr

May

Jun

eJu

lyA

ugu

st

Travel Trailer and Fifth Wheel Value Trends

SPECIALTY MARKETS:

RECREATIONAL VEHICLES

5

October 8, 2018

Powersports Market Sees Slight Uptick “Overall pricing in the Powersports market is mostly steady this month, with several segments that normally decline this time of year actually being up a little bit. Cruisers are the only on-road segment to see a significant decrease in values.”

Scott Yarbrough, Motorcycle & Powersports Editor

• Unusual for October, the Scooters, Dual Sports, and Street Bikes are up. The amounts are very small, but any increase in the road-going segments this time of year is noteworthy.

• More normal for the season, the off-road segments are up slightly this month, with the Off-Road bikes having the largest increase at 0.5%.

• The Cruiser segment is the only one of the on-road bike classes to see a “normal” drop this month, down by roughly 2%. Within the segment, the domestic models are down a touch less than the metrics.

• Snowmobiles have finally started to appreciate, as we are seeing auction volumes start to slowly increase from their minimal summer levels, raising average prices by 0.6%.

0.1%

-1.9% -1.9%

-1.7%

-1.0%

0.5%0.7%

0.3%

0.6%

0.1%0.2%

-1.1%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

Motorcycle & Powersports Percent Change September to October 2018

SPECIALTY MARKETS:

POWERSPORTS

6

October 8, 2018

Wholesale Values Barely Moving... Heading into the Fall Months!

“Buyers with equipment needs continue to pay up for the good spec low

mileage trucks, but they need to be more flexible as the real low mileage

trucks become rare.” Charles Cathey – Heavy-Duty Truck Editor

• Fleets with large numbers of deliveries are letting go of their premium turn-ins first, realizing that the

current used truck buying frenzy won’t last forever.

• Buyers with needs now are paying up, realizing mileage will rise.

• How much will the values drop as the mileage rises? We’ll be monitoring.

DATE

Construction/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors MODEL

YEARS Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change

10/01/18 96,862 -370 -0.4% 78,285 -545 -0.7% 69,946 -465 -0.7% 2016-2017

09/01/18 97,232 -497 -0.5% 78,829 -721 -0.9% 70,410 -718 -1.0% 2016-2017

• 2016-2017 HD Construction/Vocational segment dropped an average of $ 370 (0.4%) in September,

compared to the average decline of $497 (0.5%) in August.

• 2016-2017 HD Over the Road Tractor segment dropped an average of $545 (0.7%) in September, compared

to the average drop of $721 (0.9%) in August.

• 2016-2017 HD Regional Tractor segment dropped an average of $465 (0.7%) in September, compared to the

average depreciation of $718 (1.0%) in August.

DATE

Construction/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors MODEL

YEARS Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change

10/01/18 49,750 -276 -0.6% 34,186 -337 -1.0% 27,102 -273 -1.0% 2008-2015

09/01/18 50,026 -374 -0.7% 34,523 -436 -1.2% 27,375 -436 -1.6% 2008-2015

• 2008-2015 HD Construction/Vocational segment dropped an average of $276 (0.6%) in September,

compared to the $374 (0.7%) in August.

• 2008-2015 HD Over the Road Tractor segment dropped an average of $337 (1.0%) in September, compared

to $436 (1.2%) average depreciation in August.

• 2008-2015 HD Regional Tractor segment dropped an average of $273 (1.0%) in September, compared to the

average drop of $436 (1.6%) in August.

-$1,800

-$1,600

-$1,400

-$1,200

-$1,000

-$800

-$600

-$400

-$200

$0

Mo

nth

ly C

han

ges

Average Wholesale Value Changes (Late Model)

Construction/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors

SPECIALTY MARKETS:

HEAVY DUTY

7

October 8, 2018

Wholesale Price Trends Improved Slightly In September

“We’ve seen less depreciation on the older units mainly due to a limited supply

and increased demand.” Josh Giles - Senior Truck Editor

DATE

Medium Duty MODEL

YEARS

DATE

Medium Duty MODEL

YEARS Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change

10/01/18 21,676 -113 -0.5% 2008-2015 10/01/18 49,896 -356 -0.7% 2016-2017

09/01/18 21,789 -223 -1.0% 2008-2015 09/01/18 50,253 -464 -0.9% 2016-2017

• Older Models (2008 – 2015) dropped an overall weighted average of $113 (0.5%) in September. This is an improvement

over the $223 (1.0%) drop experienced in August.

• Late Models (2016 – 2017) dropped an overall weighted average of $356 (0.7%) in September. This is also an improvement

over the $464 (0.9%) drop seen the month prior.

• Class 5 – 7 have stabilized a bit due to limited supply of good used trucks.

• We have seen a slight increase in depreciation on Class 4 units over the past couple of months.

• We expect to see Older Units depreciate less than Late Models over the next couple months as strong demand and limited supply continue to drive the market.

1745 N. Brown Rd., Suite 130, Lawrenceville, GA 30043| 1.866.452.1400

www.blackbook.com| info@blackbook.com Opt-in to receive reports from Black Book at http://www.blackbook.com/insights/market-insights

-$800

-$600

-$400

-$200

$0

+$200

Aug '17 Nov '17 Feb '18 May '18 Aug '18

CHANGES IN WHOLESALE VALUEMODEL YEARS 2013 TO 2015

CLASS 4 CAB/CHASSIS CLASS 5 CAB/CHASSIS CLASS 6 CAB/CHASSIS

CLASS 7 CAB/CHASSIS LIGHT-DUTY PICKUP TRUCKS

+$0.00+$0.01+$0.01+$0.03+$0.02

-$0.01

+$0.48+$0.48+$0.46+$0.49

+$0.62+$0.61

-$0.10

+$0.00

+$0.10

+$0.20

+$0.30

+$0.40

+$0.50

+$0.60

+$0.70

09/24/1809/17/1809/10/1809/03/1808/27/1808/20/18

Diesel Price Changes

Price Chg/Week Price Chg/Year

SPECIALTY MARKETS:

MEDIUM DUTY