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Outlook 2008 Atlantic Outlook 2008 Atlantic Hurricane SeasonHurricane Season
Kevin Lipton, Ingrid Kevin Lipton, Ingrid AmbergerAmbergerNational Weather ServiceNational Weather ServiceAlbany, New YorkAlbany, New York
Summary 2007 Hurricane SeasonSummary 2007 Hurricane SeasonTwo hurricanes made landfall in the Atlantic Basin at category-5 strength. – Hurricane Dean struck the Yucatan Peninsula near Costa Maya
on August 21 with 175 mph sustained winds– Hurricane Felix then made landfall near Punta Gorda,
Nicaragua on September 2 with 160 mph sustained winds
Several other tropical storms and hurricanes struck the region around the Caribbean Sea.
The United States was struck by one hurricane, Humberto (Category 1), and one tropical storm, Erin.
2007 Hurricane Tracks2007 Hurricane Tracks15 Named / 6 Hurricanes / 2 Major15 Named / 6 Hurricanes / 2 Major
Generally shorted-lived hurricanes
Dean (#4), Felix (#6) & Noel (#14) names retired
NOAA PredictsNOAA PredictsAverage Season Average Season
(since 1950):(since 1950):
11 Named 11 Named StormsStorms
6 Hurricanes6 Hurricanes
2 Major 2 Major HurricanesHurricanes
Hurricane SeasonHurricane SeasonNorth Atlantic, Caribbean Sea & Gulf of MexicoNorth Atlantic, Caribbean Sea & Gulf of Mexico
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center will issue The NOAA Climate Prediction Center will issue an updated seasonal forecast in August just an updated seasonal forecast in August just
prior to the historical peak of the season.prior to the historical peak of the season.
DefinitionsDefinitionsTropical DepressionTropical Depression:: tropical cyclone with tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 38 maximum sustained surface winds of 38 mph.mph.
Tropical StormTropical Storm:: tropical cyclone with tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 39 to maximum sustained surface winds of 39 to 73 mph. It is at this point it gets a name.73 mph. It is at this point it gets a name.
HurricaneHurricane:: tropical cyclone with maximum tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 74 mph or sustained surface winds of 74 mph or greater.greater.
SaffirSaffir--Simpson ScaleSimpson ScaleCategory 1 = 74 to 95 mphCategory 1 = 74 to 95 mph
Category 2 = 96 to 110 mphCategory 2 = 96 to 110 mph
Category 3 = 111 to 130 mphCategory 3 = 111 to 130 mph
Category 4 = 131 to 155 mphCategory 4 = 131 to 155 mph
Category 5 = 156+ mphCategory 5 = 156+ mph
Tropical Cyclone NamesTropical Cyclone Names
Ingredients for Tropical Cyclone DevelopmentIngredients for Tropical Cyclone Development
PrePre--existing surface existing surface disturbance with disturbance with thunderstormsthunderstorms
Ocean temperatures of Ocean temperatures of at least 79Fat least 79F
Atmospheric moistureAtmospheric moisture
Relatively light winds aloft Relatively light winds aloft (low vertical wind shear)(low vertical wind shear)
Formation north of Formation north of approximately 5 Napproximately 5 N
NOAANOAA
Vertical Wind ShearVertical Wind Shear
Directional wind shear Directional wind shear is the change in wind is the change in wind direction with heightdirection with height
Speed shear is the Speed shear is the change in wind speed change in wind speed with heightwith height
NOAANOAA
NOAANOAA
Main FactorsMain Factors
Positive MultiPositive Multi--Decadal SignalDecadal Signal -- the the combination of ocean and atmospheric combination of ocean and atmospheric conditions that have spawned increased conditions that have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995hurricane activity since 1995
Anticipated Anticipated lingering effects of La Niñalingering effects of La Niña ––resulting in a decrease in vertical wind shear resulting in a decrease in vertical wind shear
Continuation (since 1995) of Continuation (since 1995) of warmerwarmer--thanthan--normal temperatures in the eastern tropical normal temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic Atlantic
Global SST Departures (Global SST Departures (ooCC) )
Equatorial SSTs remained below average across the central Pacific Ocean, and above average in the eastern Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean. A horseshoe-shaped pattern of positive anomalies spanned the Pacific Ocean of both hemispheres. Positive anomalies covered much of the North Atlantic Ocean, while negative anomalies extended along the west coast of North America into the Gulf of Alaska.
A majority of ENSO forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions during the last half of 2008.
Pacific NiPacific Niñño 3.4 o 3.4 SST OutlookSST Outlook
Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 19 May 2008).
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 9 June 2008Issued 9 June 2008
The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts ENSO-neutral conditions by June 2008 followed by warmer-than-average conditions during the last half of 2008.
SummarySummaryNearNear--Normal to AboveNormal to Above--Normal SeasonNormal Season
Positive MultiPositive Multi--Decadal SignalDecadal Signal
Anticipated lingering effects of La Niña Anticipated lingering effects of La Niña
WarmerWarmer--thanthan--normal temperatures in the normal temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic eastern tropical Atlantic
Tropical Cyclone Tropical Cyclone Discussion Discussion -- TCDTCD
Can give insight into forecaster Can give insight into forecaster confidence in track and/or intensityconfidence in track and/or intensity
Tropical Cyclone DiscussionTropical Cyclone DiscussionHurricane Dean Hurricane Dean -- August 16, 2007August 16, 2007
Tropical Cyclone DiscussionTropical Cyclone DiscussionHurricane Katrina Hurricane Katrina -- August 26, 2005August 26, 2005
Operational ChangesOperational Changes
What’s new for 2008 ?What’s new for 2008 ?
Tropical Cyclone ProductsTropical Cyclone ProductsPreviously...Previously...
Red:Red: Tropical Tropical Storm/Hurricane Storm/Hurricane Watch/WarningWatch/Warning
Blue:Blue: InlandInlandTropical Tropical Storm/Hurricane Storm/Hurricane Watch/WarningWatch/Warning
Green:Green: High Wind High Wind Watch/Warning Watch/Warning Wind AdvisoryWind Advisory
Previously…Previously…
Tropical Cyclone Products issued for NWS Tropical Cyclone Products issued for NWS Albany forecast area...Albany forecast area...–– Berkshire/Litchfield CountiesBerkshire/Litchfield Counties
Inland Tropical Storm Watch/Warning (NPW)Inland Tropical Storm Watch/Warning (NPW)Inland Hurricane Watch/Warning (NPW)Inland Hurricane Watch/Warning (NPW)
–– Other CountiesOther CountiesHigh Wind Watch/Warning (NPW)High Wind Watch/Warning (NPW)Wind Advisory (NPW)Wind Advisory (NPW)
Tropical Cyclone ProductsTropical Cyclone ProductsNew for 2008 SeasonNew for 2008 Season
Red:Red: Tropical Tropical Storm/Hurricane Storm/Hurricane Watch/WarningWatch/Warning
Blue:Blue: Tropical Tropical Storm/Hurricane Storm/Hurricane WindWindWatch/WarningWatch/Warning
Green:Green: High Wind High Wind Watch/Warning Watch/Warning Wind AdvisoryWind Advisory
New for 2008New for 2008Tropical Cyclone Products issued for NWS Tropical Cyclone Products issued for NWS Albany forecast area...Albany forecast area...–– Berkshire/Litchfield CountiesBerkshire/Litchfield Counties
Tropical Storm Wind Watch/Warning (HLS)Tropical Storm Wind Watch/Warning (HLS)Hurricane Wind Watch/Warning (HLS)Hurricane Wind Watch/Warning (HLS)
–– Other CountiesOther CountiesSome flexibility to issue HLS product for NY Some flexibility to issue HLS product for NY counties. Would most likely issue only for southern counties. Would most likely issue only for southern tier tier –– Ulster/DutchessUlster/DutchessOtherwise...Otherwise...
–– High Wind Watch/Warning (NPW)High Wind Watch/Warning (NPW)–– Wind Advisory (NPW)Wind Advisory (NPW)
Tropical Storm Wind Watch/WarningTropical Storm Wind Watch/WarningHurricane Wind Watch/WarningHurricane Wind Watch/Warning
Issued when a tropical cyclone (tropical Issued when a tropical cyclone (tropical storm or hurricane) is expected to storm or hurricane) is expected to spread tropical storm or hurricane force spread tropical storm or hurricane force winds inland. winds inland.
Issuance CriteriaIssuance Criteria
A Tropical Cyclone Wind Watch or A Tropical Cyclone Wind Watch or Warning will be issued when the following Warning will be issued when the following criteria are met:criteria are met:–– WatchWatch -- when tropical storm/hurricane force when tropical storm/hurricane force
winds are possible within the watch area winds are possible within the watch area within 36 hours.within 36 hours.
–– WarningWarning -- when tropical storm/hurricane when tropical storm/hurricane force winds are expected within the warning force winds are expected within the warning area within 24 hours.area within 24 hours.
PostPost--Tropical Cyclone Reports (PSH)Tropical Cyclone Reports (PSH)The PSH is the primary Weather Forecast Office post The PSH is the primary Weather Forecast Office post tropical cyclone product issued to the public to report tropical cyclone product issued to the public to report and document local tropical cyclone impacts.and document local tropical cyclone impacts.
Issued if HLS is issued.Issued if HLS is issued.
The PSH provides the NHC, NWS Headquarters, media, The PSH provides the NHC, NWS Headquarters, media, public and emergency management officials with a public and emergency management officials with a record of peak tropical cyclone conditions. record of peak tropical cyclone conditions.
This data are then used to formulate other postThis data are then used to formulate other post--event event reports, news articles and historical records. reports, news articles and historical records.
PSH transmitted within 5 days following the transmission PSH transmitted within 5 days following the transmission of the last HLS or Tropical Storm/Hurricane Wind of the last HLS or Tropical Storm/Hurricane Wind watches or warnings.watches or warnings.
Web SitesWeb SitesGo to any National Weather Service Go to any National Weather Service Forecast Office: Forecast Office: www.weather.govwww.weather.gov
National Hurricane Center / Tropical National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center: Prediction Center: www.nhc.noaa.govwww.nhc.noaa.gov
ContactsContactsWarning Coordination Meteorologist: Warning Coordination Meteorologist: [email protected]@noaa.gov
Meteorologist (Hurricane Focal Point): Meteorologist (Hurricane Focal Point): [email protected]@noaa.gov
Meteorologist: Meteorologist: [email protected]@noaa.gov
