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Outline:
•How does the Fed change the interest rate?
•The monetary “transmission mechanism”
•Potential breakdowns of the transmission mechanism.
•Brief review of the Fed policy record
InterestRate
Money($Billions)
0
Ms1 Ms
2
Md
E
F
6%
4%
500 800
Fed open market operations bid up the prices of bonds, and drive yields down.
Open Market Operations and the Money Market
InterestRate
Money($Billions)
0
Ms1 Ms
2
Md
E
F
6%
4%
500 800
Fed open market sale depresses bond prices, and drives yields upward.
Fed “Pulls the String”
Question: How is Fed policy “transmitted” to macroeconomic variables such as real GDP, employment, and the general price level?
Fed Open Market Purchase of Securities
Increase in the Money Supply
Decrease in the interest rate
Increase in components of spending that are sensitive to interest rates—specifically, investment and consumer durable goods
Multiplier Effect
Real GDP
00
i
M
AE
Y
450
bIaY p
1
1)(
6%
4%
Ms1 Ms
2
Y1 Y2
AE1
AE2
Md
Diagrammatic explanation of the transmission mechanism
pIa
Some economists(notably
Keynesians) are skeptical about the
effectiveness of expansionary
monetary policy
Breakdowns in the Transmission Mechanism
Breakdowns include:
• Non-responsiveness of aggregate expenditure (AE) to changes in the rate of interest.
• The liquidity trap
i
Investment($Billions)
I2I1
6%
4%
70 74 95
Not interest-sensitive The FED may besuccessful in decreasing interest rates. But what if
investment spending fails torespond?
Ms1 Ms
2
Md
InterestRate
Money($Billions)
i*
0
At an interest rate equal to or below i*, wealth holders wish to hold ALL money and NO bonds.
The FOMC sets a target for the “federal funds” rate, which is the rate that banks
charge other banks for “borrowed” reserves.
The Fed pulled on the string big time
beginning in 1979—it was an anti-inflation
strategy under Chairman Paul Volcker
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
79:01 79:07 80:01 80:07 81:01 81:07 82:01 82:07 83:01
Federal Funds
Recessions are shaded
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
80 82 84 86 88 90 92
Mortgage Interest Rates
Recessions are shadedConventional 30 year
www.economagic.com
Mortgage rate
Monthly Payment1
8% $807.14
10% $965.33
12% $1,131.47
14% $1,303.36
16% $1,479.23
1 Does not include prorated insurance or property taxes.
Monthly payments on a $110,000 30 year mortgage note
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
80 82 84 86 88 90 92
Monthly Housing Starts
Recessions are shadedData in thousands of units
www.economagic.gov
More recently, the Fed raised the
federal funds rate six times between May 99 and May 2000—from 4.75% to 6.5
%.
The Fed reversed course at the
beginning of 2001
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
99:01 99:07 00:01 00:07 01:01
Federal Funds