Upload
letuyen
View
218
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Market landscape reports & data
Our research helps companies understand developers and create winning ecosystems
Understand “who”, “what”, and “how” are developers experience your product versus the competition, on the largest scale possible.
VisionMobile| the analysts of the developer economy
2
Developer Experience Tracker
August 2015 August 2015
Developer Megatrends H1 2015 © 2015 VisionMobile 1
DEVELOPER MEGATRENDS H1 2015�
© 2015 VisionMobile.com May 2015
Available through an annual report subscription
Slice & dice millions of developer data points
If you could talk to 20,000+ developers what would you ask them?
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
VisionMobile | the analysts of the developer economy
media presencetrusted by mainstream media
clientsOur research is trusted by
3
We help companies understand developers and create winning ecosystems
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
StijnSchuermans
Senior Business Analyst
Michael Vakulenko
Strategy Director
AndreasConstantinou
Director and Founder
Stijn focuses on understanding how technology becomes value-creating innovation, how business models affect market dynamics, and the consequences of this for corporate strategy. He is the lead Internet of Things researcher in the VisionMobile team since 2012. Stijn holds an engineering master degree and an MBA. He has over 10 years experience as an engineer, product manager, strategist and business analyst.
You can reach Stijn at:[email protected]@stijnschuermans
Michael has over 18 years experience in mobile and telecom starting from working on first experimental 3G systems in Qualcomm. Later on Michael was part of several startups developing products in the areas of wireless, enterprise networking and mobile apps. At VisionMobile Michael works at the cross section of business models, economics and technology where he leads strategy practice for software-centric business models in mobile, Internet of Things and Connected Car.
You can reach Michael at:[email protected]@mvakulenko
As Director and Founder, Andreas oversees the growth and strategy at VisionMobile. He has been working on the mobile industry since 2000, helping take the very first smartphones to market. Since then he’s worked with the top technology brands, from Amazon to Samsung to help them understand developer trends and the future of software. In his academic life, Andreas is an Adjunct Professor at Lund University, Sweden, where he teaches Internet Business Models.
You can reach Andreas at:[email protected]@andreascon
About the authors
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
In this report
5
Developers are the new baseline
Battle of the Smart Home Hubs
The 4 frontiers of wearable platforms
From Connected Car to software-defined transportation
Consumer and Enterprise technology converge
The hottest business models in IoT
© 2015 Vision Mobile
Developers are the new baselineIf you’re not into developers, you’re not doing it right
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Developers flood into the Internet of Things fast
7
5M
10M
Already 4.5 million individuals active as IoT developers in 2015
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Key players in every market build their strategy around developers
8
Smart Home Smartwatches Industrial IoT
Connected Car Drones Augmented & Virtual Reality
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Developers extend your business model
9
Innovators Customers Extenders Distributors
Developers are …
Developers build new value with software as
employees in your company
Developers are customers of tools, libraries, and
platforms
3rd party developers extend your business into
new use cases, and are partners in new alliances
3rd party developers are distributors of your
products, taking it to new users and markets
Replenishment Service
Amazon Alexa Voice Service
valuecreation
value capture
valuedelivery
valuecreation
Developers extend your business model:
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
But developer interest shouldn’t be taken for granted!Hype alone could not sustain developer involvement in Wearables
10
28%
21%
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Every company should master developer ecosystem skills
11
platform technology people rules for
interaction+ +
“Managing developer ecosystems is a human art.” Todd Luwak*
individuals & companiesusers & developers
API
cloud, APIs, apps,devices, OS, …
app curation, governance, …
(*) http://allthingsd.com/20131021/managing-platforms-is-a-human-art/
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Understand developers by looking at their goals and motivations
12
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
The developer segment mix is an indicator of market maturityIndustrial IoT is almost as mature as mobile; Smart Home trails
Increasing maturity
13
mobile
IoT
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
IoT markets are not independent: developers cross boundaries
Smart Home
Retail
Industrial IoTWearables
Smart City
Medical
Connected Car
The link is stronger when developers are more likely to target both verticals.
Smart Home, Connected Car and Smart City form a cluster. Developers active in
one area are likely to be active in the others as well.
Wearables is one of the most stand-alone IoT verticals.
Smart City is disconnected from Retail and Medical.
There is a big overlap between IoT
developers active in Retail and Medical.
14
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile15
Developers are a driving force in every IoT industry
and a source of competitive advantage
Every IoT company should master the human art
of managing developer ecosystems
take-aways
read more
IoT Developer and Platform Landscape 2015
IoT Developer Population 2015 - 2020
© 2015 Vision Mobile
Battle of the Smart Home hubs
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Smart Home Hubs: everyone wants to be at the center of your home
17
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Smart Home draws the most attention from developers, too
18
number of individual IoT developers active in each vertical
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile19
How do modern Smart Home hubs compete?
(A)New touchpoints
(B)New interaction
models
(C)Developers
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
(A) 4 new touchpoints: what the user interacts with every day
20
Voice control Next-gen remote controls
Apps Messaging
Microsoft Cortana
Apple SiriLogitech Harmony
WeChat Facebook Mon your watch, phone, tablet, desktop, TV
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Who owns the customer relationship? Who will users be loyal too? In which interface will users invest time to learn?
21
device makers?
hubmakers?
touchpoints?
user
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
(B) Interaction models: what does a ‘Smart Home app’ look like?
22
Companion app Scenario or rule Conversation
Rules set by artificial intelligence
Microsoft Cortana
Apple Siri
with voice or chat
Rules set by the user
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Artificial intelligence will play a key role in Smart Home interaction
23
Companion app Scenario or rule Conversation
Rules set by artificial intelligence
Microsoft Cortana
Apple Siri
with voice or chat
Rules set by the user
artificial intelligence is the key value proposition
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Will developers go extinct?And what are the implications for future Smart Home platforms?
24
Smartphone
Smart Home
app developers create functionality
power users set rules
everyone is a developer
app developers program scenarios
developers assist users
artificial intelligence discovers rules
developers are nearly obsolete?
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
(C) Extendibility by 3rd parties is still key to success
25
Platforms will beat Products every time! *
Amazon Alexa Skills Kit
extend with appsand scenarios
extend with scenarios
extend with voice-addressable
services
(*) Marschall Van Alstyne, professor, MIT
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Key players count on developers to drive value creation
26
App & rule platforms Conversation platforms
Alexa by
Apple HomeKit
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile27
Platforms, not products, will determine who wins the
customer relationship. Conversational platforms (voice,
chat) are coming up strong.
The rise of artificial intelligence fundamentally challenges
the central role of developers as creators of use cases, but
developers remain key in platform strategies, if not for
apps, then for services.
take-aways
read more The Smart Home Landscape 2015
Developer and platform outlook for the Smart Home
Published August 2015
© 2015 Vision Mobile
The 4 frontiers of wearable platforms
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
4 innovation frontiers in wearable platforms
29
1
2
3
4
Wearables move from consumer electronics devices to being unobtrusively embedded in clothing
In smartwatches, Android Wear is under pressure from new platform challengers
Augmented and virtual reality are the next big wearable app platform opportunity
Data app platforms are emerging; developers haven’t caught on yet
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
The disappearing act of wearable technology Wearables move from high-tech devices to unobtrusive clothing
30
Rihanna's Go-To Designer Made a Dress That Works as a Credit Card
Ralph Lauren's Futuristic Fashion:
The PoloTech Smart Shirt
ShiftWear: sneakers with e-ink screen and “Walk to Charge” tech
1
when it’s invisible but valuable, technology becomes relevant for traditional fashion companies
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Enabling technologies for next-gen smart clothing
31
Printable electronicsand batteries
Woven electronicsand batteries
Energy harvesting for self-powered wearables via thermopiles (shirt) or kinetic energy (shoes)
1
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
New opportunities for fashion brands : digital identity is key
32 Source: IoT report series: The Wearables Landscape 2015
expanded value proposition
• personalized workout recommendations• personalized encouragement• engaging community
from one-off saleto lasting customer relationship
• continuous brand exposure via app• lock-in through stored value (exercise history)• re-engage and market directly to consumer
1
Digital identity enables a powerful connection between brand and user
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Android Wear is under pressure in smartwatch platforms
Chinese internet companies build their own Android derivatives for wearables
Victims of the Android smartphone strategy build direct challenger platforms based on Tizen or webOS
33
2
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
The next big wave of wearable app platforms: AR/VR
Valve SteamVR
Sulon Cortex
StarVR
34
Playstation VR
3
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
AR/VR developer tools are emerging, too
35
tools and script libraries for VR app development,
motion tracking technology
“WorldViz virtual reality empowers businesses with new visualization
techniques, developers with fresh creative potential, and researchers with tools that
accelerate scientific discovery.”
Structure Sensor and SDK: real-time 3D vision on mobile
devices
“Need precise 6-DoF positional tracking? Volumetric
reconstruction? Real world occlusion? Our APIs have you
covered. ”
Cloud-based creation and hosting of high-fidelity 3D
models
“Our Models. Your Apps. Leverage the world’s first end-to-end
platform for creating immersive media.”
3
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Data-first apps and platforms are gaining momentum
36
Apple ResearchKit
clinical researchwith smartphones & wearables
early apps address autism, epilepsy, moles, microbiome, environmental
influences, neurocognitive disorders, liver disease, asthma,
cardiomyopathy, and more
100,000 sign-ups inMarch to October 2015
Humanyze
workplace people analyticswith sensorized ID badges
capture tone of voice, when and how quickly people speak, where
people are when they interact face-to-face, and more
correlate with other forms of communication (email, phone) and
key performance indicators
Oscar
health insurancewith data from wearables
hired 45 engineers and built better tools for matching patients with physicians, gives customers free
fitness-tracking devices and access to a free unlimited telemedicine
service
40,000+ sign-ups in 2 US states in 2 years
4
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Data-centric solutions are more lucrative than devices or apps
37 Source: VisionMobile Wearables Landscape 2015
Probability of earning more than a given amount per month in revenues
(higher is richer)
4
% o
f wea
rabl
e dev
elop
ers
inte
rest
ed in
rev
enue
| n
=506
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
… but few developers have gone the data route so far
38 Source: VisionMobile Wearables Landscape 2015 | % of IoT developers | n=2,360
4
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile39
Innovation in wearables is in full swing.
Soon …
… brands will compete on digital identity
… watches and AR/VR will compete on who has most apps
… the most successful developers will build on top of data
take-aways
read more The Wearables Landscape 2015
Developer outlook and platform leaderboard for Wearables
Published October 2015
© 2015 Vision Mobile
From connected car to software-defined transportation
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
DATA DONGLE
The focus in car app development is shifting
2012 2014 2016
41
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Focus shifts from control over dashboard to control over data
We need to control access to [vehicle] data.
We want to keep control of the HMI, the UI, the whole safety aspect, the certification of the app in terms of the regulations of the different countries.
Steffen Neumann Mercedes-Benz, app portfolio manager
42
“
Don Butler Ford, executive director of
connected vehicle and services“
Jan2014
Jul 2015
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
With car data, developers are once again the key to success
43
Selected automotive developer programs in 2016
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Software will define the future of transportationDashboard controls and engine data are just the beginning…
44
electrical cars are less complex, allow entrance of CE companies
machine learning systems based on big data from car sensors
where to drive to get from point A to point B, given road conditions
deciding in real-time where every car needs to go to meet demand
connecting car makers, operators, app & service providers, and users
from ‘taxi services’ to thousands of uses for autonomous transportationservices & apps
transportationplatform
fleet routing
navigation
autonomous driving
car hardware old and new car makers
Who’s playing?
softw
are
The future transportation value stack
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Car makers face great challenges in this new era
45
electrical cars are less complex, allow entrance of CE companies
machine learning systems based on big data from car sensors
where to drive to get from point A to point B, given road conditions
deciding in real-time where every car needs to go to meet demand
connecting car makers, operators, service providers, and users
from ‘taxi services’ to thousands of uses for autonomous transportationservices & apps
transportationplatform
fleet routing
navigation
autonomous driving
car hardware old and new car makers
softw
are
Car makers lack access to software and data expertise, including artificial
intelligence, data science, and developer ecosystems
Car makers and their suppliers lack access to sufficient autopilot training data
Google: 48 cars | 1.2M miles driven
Tesla: 100,000 cars | 1.5M miles per day
Car makers & suppliers:limited data from internal testing
Consumer electronics companies have advantages in supply chain
and key technologies (e.g. batteries)
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Will car makers miss automotive computing just like Microsoft missed mobile?
46
Right now we're selling millions and millions and millions of phones a year, Apple is selling zero phones a year. In six months, they'll have the most expensive phone by far ever in the marketplace. ... Let's see how the competition goes.
Steve BallmerCEO Microsoft, 2007
“There is absolutely no reason to assume that Apple is going to be financially successful in the electric car business. Electric cars are generally money losers.
Bob Lutz former vice chairman GM, 2015
“ We’re in the car business today, and they [Google] are not.
Mark Reuss, Product Development Chief GM, 2015
“thennow
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile47
The innovation focus in Connected Cars is shifting from the
dashboard to vehicle data, and in the future to data-driven
transportation platforms.
Car makers struggle to keep control over and to gain access
to the necessary supply chain, expertise, and data to be
leaders in this evolution.
take-aways
read more
Apps for Connected Cars?Your Mileage May Vary
http://www.visionmobile.com/blog/2015/11/self-driving-cars-are-about-platforms-not-about-cars/
BLOG
© 2015 Vision Mobile
Consumer and enterprise technology converge
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Today Smart Home, tomorrow Smart Office
49
Smart Home, not building automation, will be the future technology foundation for office environments
Why? consumer markets offer much faster product evolution and validation with customers
Smart Hometoday
Smart Office tomorrow
Smart Lock Smart Lighting Smart TV Smart Thermostat
Access control
Lighting control
Meeting room equipment
Climate control
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
The power of consumer-grade convenience
50
IBM and Yanzi sensorized an entire office building in under 4 hourstemperature sensors, smart plugs,motion sensors in rooms, on chairs, and on other objects
Consumer-grade ease of installation coupled with enterprise-grade security
http://www.ibmbigdatahub.com/video/creating-connected-building-under-4-hours
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Wearables in the workplace: same technology, different use cases
Source: IoT report series: The Wearables Landscape 201551
Phase 1new tech, old solution
Phase 2wearable-first
Phase 3data-first
activity trackersfor corp. health plans
“shrunken smartphone”
display company data,BYOW
hands-free data logging, assisted reality, safety
people analytics
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Industrial IoT: clash of technologies and engineering cultures
52
Jeff ImmeltCEO General Electric
If you went to bed last night as an industrial company, you’re going to wake up this morning as a software and analytics company.
“
industrial technology
data technologyfrom social media,
e-commerce, search
Source: GE Minds+Machines conference, 2014
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Clash of cultures: consumer and industrial tech converge
The industrial Internet is the second wave of the internet revolution. A revolution which has already transformed the consumer environment is now beginning to spread to the industrial environment, thanks to a rapid decline in the cost of sensors and in the cost of data storage and computing.
Marco AnnunziataGE Chief Economist
Source: https://www.youtube.com/PxvKbt8pByA | Davos World Economic Forum, Jan 2015
“
Angela MerkelGerman Chancellor
We must deal quickly with the fusion of the online world and the world of industrial production. In Germany, we call it Industrie 4.0. Because otherwise, those who are the leaders in the digital domain will take the lead in industrial production. We enter this race with great confidence. But it's a race we have not yet won.
“53
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile54
Consumer and enterprise technology are increasingly converging in most industries.
Consumer not enterprise technology will be the foundation for the converged future.
Developers will be increasingly mobile between consumer and enterprise markets.
take-aways
read more
Smart HomeLandscape 2015
Wearables Landscape 2015
Industrial IoTLandscape 2015
© 2015 Vision Mobile
The hottest business models in IoT
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Value quadrants: mapping business model evolution
56
services
tangible products
revenue at time of sale post-sales revenue
traditional product sales
when money is earned
with what money is earned
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Value quadrants: some examples
57
services
tangible products
revenue at time of sale post-sales revenue
consumables (razer and blade model)
sell services on a monthly contract
traditional product sales
work on commission
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Business models shift in Industrial IoT
58
services
tangible products
revenue at time of sale post-sales revenue
sales of industrial asset, typically with yearly service contract
vendor retains ownership of the asset, sells utility as a service
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Industrial machines: from product to service
59
“Sell locomotion, not locomotives”
-- GE
“Power by the Hour”-- Rolls Royce
IoT data
zero unplanned downtime
vendors take on the risk of ownership
sales of additional software and data services
(e.g. capacity optimization)
enables
enables
enables
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Business models shift in Smart Home
60
services
tangible products
revenue at time of sale post-sales revenue
sale of connected product(Smart Home device)
connected product is point of sale for consumables
Smart Home: e-commerce
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Every Smart Home device becomes an e-commerce point of sale
61
E-Commerce revenue enables subsidized hardware, i.e. the Kindle model.
IoT extends e-Commerce affiliate and user acquisition schemes beyond websites, mobile and apps, into every physical object.
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
Business models shift: consumer gets paid
62
services
tangible products
revenue at time of sale post-sales revenue
sale of connected product(smoke detector, car data dongle, wearable)
subsidized IoT device bundled with service (e.g. insurance, energy rebates)
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
From ‘consumer pays’ to ‘consumer gets paid’Subsidizing devices from other revenue streams enables more growth
63
Nest Safety Rewards
smoke detector bundled with
home insurance
Nest Rush Hour Rewards
allowing energy providers to control the thermostat in
exchange for rebates
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
From ‘consumer pays’ to ‘consumer gets paid’Subsidizing devices from other revenue streams enables more growth
64
Oscar Health Insurance
health insurance bundled with
Misfit activity tracker
Automatic
Connected Car app & servicesconnected to
usage-based car insurance
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile65
The prevalent business models in the Internet of Things are
moving from product sales to recurring revenue, and from
products to services.
Product-as-a-Service, devices as a distribution channel for
e-commerce, and for insurance, are some of the key
business models to watch.
take-aways
read more
The Commerce of ThingsIoT Report Series
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile66
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobileCopyright VisionMobile 2011
Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.
Updated: 12 November 2010
Get in touch with Us
Matos [email protected] Manager,
Get the latest Developer Economics reports:www.DeveloperEconomics.com/reports
67
IoT Megatrends 2016 | © 2015 VisionMobile
About VisionMobile ™VisionMobileTM is the leading analyst company in the app economy and the developer ecosystem. Our surveys and app analytics track the changing landscape of mobile, IoT, desktop, and cloud developers. We help clients like Microsoft, Intel, Google and Twitter decode the complex developer ecosystem and stay one step ahead of competition.
Developer Economics is VisionMobile’s flagship research program, tracking the latest mobile, IoT, desktop and cloud developer trends via our surveys and app analytics. VisionMobile runs the largest, most global developer surveys, collecting data from thousands of developers across the globe, across regions, platforms and revenues.
Our mantra: distilling market noise into market sense.
VisionMobile Ltd. 90 Long Acre, Covent Garden, London WC2E 9RZ +44 845 003 8742
www.visionmobile.com/blogFollow us on twitter: @visionmobile
Terms of re-use1. License Grant.
Subject to the terms and conditions of this License, VisionMobile™ hereby grants you a worldwide, royalty-free, non-exclusive license to reproduce the Report or to incorporate parts of the Report (so long as this is no more than five pages) into one or more documents or publications.
2. Restrictions.
The license granted above is subject to and limited by the following restrictions. You must not distribute the Report on any website or publicly accessible Internet website (such as Dropbox or Slideshare) and you may distribute the Report only under the terms of this License. You may not sublicense the Report. You must keep intact all notices that refer to this License and to the disclaimer of warranties with every copy of the Report you distribute. If you incorporate parts of the Report (so long as this is no more than five pages) into an adaptation or collection, you must keep intact all copyright, trademark and confidentiality notices for the Report and provide attribution to VisionMobile™ in all distributions, reproductions, adaptations or incorporations which the Report is used (attribution requirement). You must not modify or alter the Report in any way, including providing translations of the Report.
3. Representations, Warranties and Disclaimer
VisionMobile™ believes the statements contained in this publication to be based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of the date appearing on this publication only and the information, including the opinions contained herein, are subject to change without notice. Use of this publication by any third party for whatever purpose should not and does not absolve such third party from using due diligence in verifying the publication’s contents. VisionMobile disclaims all implied warranties, including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.
4. Limitation on Liability.
VisionMobile™, its affiliates and representatives shall have no liability for any direct, incidental, special, or consequential damages or lost profits, if any, suffered by any third party as a result of decisions made, or not made, or actions taken, or not taken, based on this publication.
5. Termination
This License and the rights granted hereunder will terminate automatically upon any breach by you of the terms of this License.
Copyright © VisionMobile 2015 - v.1