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Our lives in digital timesOur lives in digital times
George Sciadas
Statistics Canada
Presented at Eurostat’s conference
Knowledge Economy: Challenges for Measurement
Luxembourg, December 8, 2005
From ICT access to ICT use……to ICT outcomes and impacts
Myths and realities
The use of data- ICT data- other data sets - data integration
Myth: The paperless officeMyth: The paperless office/society/society
Consumption of printing and writing paper, worldwide
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1983 1993 2003
met
ric
tonn
es (
mill
ions
)
Source: FAO
Myth: The death of mailMyth: The death of mail
- Post offices not near extinction- Post offices not near extinction
- Private couriers proliferate- Private couriers proliferate
Myth: The end of professional travelMyth: The end of professional travel
- business travel at very high levels- business travel at very high levels
- physical gatherings have intensified- physical gatherings have intensified
Myth: The death of retailMyth: The death of retail
Retail trends, Canada
1983 1993 1998
Number of stores 19,776 22,989 24,784
Total floor area (m2) 11,051,190 12,430,885 15,471,815
Employment (,000) - 1,624 1,889
Source: Statistics Canada, Retail Chain and Department Stores
E- commerce level, share and growth, Canada
1999 2003 growth 99/ 03
billion $ % of sales billion $ % of sales %
Retail trade industry 611 0.3 2,113 0.6 36
Total private sector 4,180 0.2 18,598 0.8 45
Source: Science, I nnovation and Electronic I nformation Division, Statistics Canada
Changes – yes and many, but what?Changes – yes and many, but what?
Behavioural changes – people and businesses
printing e-mails and on-screen readingcomposition of mailmodes of professional collaboration and human needsclicks, bricks and online shoppingempowered consumers and business adjustments
Not the expectedNot the expected(The ceteris paribus assumption doesn’t hold…(The ceteris paribus assumption doesn’t hold…
…all other things are not equal)…all other things are not equal)
Fact: people talk on the phone Fact: people talk on the phone more than ever in historymore than ever in history
Traffi c over wireline networks, US and Canada
lines calls minutes calls per day minutes per day
(millions) (billions) (billions) per line per capita per line per capita
US
1980 102 312 1,734 8.4 3.8 46 21
2001 188 609 4,866 8.9 5.9 71 47
Canada
1983 11.5 29 - 6.9 3.3 - -
1987 12.8 37 - 7.9 3.8 - -
1997 18.4 - 340 - - 51 39
2003 19.5 - 461 - - 65 47
Sources: Federal Communications Commission, Statistics Canada and author's estimates (italics)
Fact: people talk on the phone Fact: people talk on the phone more than ever in historymore than ever in history
Traffi c volume over cell phones, US and Canada
subscribers billions of minutes
(millions) minutes per line/ day per capita/ day
US
1993 16 26.9 4.7 0.3
2002 140.8 721.3 14.2 6.7
Canada
1993 1.3 2.1 4.4 0.2
2003 13.5 39.4 8.2 3.5
Sources: Federal Communications Commission, Statistics Canada
Fact: high usage of e-mail, SMS and Fact: high usage of e-mail, SMS and significant time spent on ICTssignificant time spent on ICTs
Hours spent on the I nternet, by age, Canada, 2000
0
2
4
6
8
10
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 >75 avg.
age group
hour
s/w
eek
Source: Statistics Canada
Fact: the extra time spent on new ICTs Fact: the extra time spent on new ICTs not matched by reductions in TV viewingnot matched by reductions in TV viewing
Television viewing and radio listening, Canada
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
2519
83
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
ho
urs
/wee
k
TV Radio
Source: Statistics Canada
Fact: the pattern of communications has Fact: the pattern of communications has changedchanged
Long distance volume, Canada
outbound inbound toll- free total
(minutes)
1995 - - - 19,123
1998 28,530 4,363 5,143 38,037
2000 27,711 7,226 10,466 45,402
2002 38,638 7,307 9,317 55,262
Source: Statistics Canada
Number of wireline calls, Canada
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987
indexes
(1963=10
0) local LD
Wireline minutes, by distance, US
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1980 1985 1990 1995 2001
inde
xes
(198
0=10
0)
local LD intl out intl in
Fact: the pattern of communications has Fact: the pattern of communications has changedchanged
Source: FCC
Growth in long distance increases with distanceGrowth in long distance increases with distance
Prices for international calls, US
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
pric
e pe
r m
inut
e ($
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
pric
e pe
r ca
ll ($
)
price per call price per minute
Fact: the pattern of communications has Fact: the pattern of communications has changedchanged
Source: FCC
int' l
local LD outgoing incoming
(minutes)
1980 2.6 4.3 7.9 7.0
1985 2.3 6.4 8.4 6.7
1990 2.3 5.1 8.2 5.9
1995 2.3 4.3 5.6 4.6
2001 3.8 5.2 5.3 4.6
Source: FCC
Fact: the pattern of communications has Fact: the pattern of communications has changedchanged
OutcomesOutcomes
It is not that we are becoming anti-social, It is not that we are becoming anti-social,
it is that we are becoming differently social it is that we are becoming differently social
Wider communities, richer lives?Wider communities, richer lives?
People make the choice to expand their associations People make the choice to expand their associations
and move from geographically-defined and move from geographically-defined communitiescommunities
to communities of interest.to communities of interest.
Expanded ICT use in various Expanded ICT use in various capacities, capacities,
at work and at home at work and at home
Co-tasking, multi-taskingCo-tasking, multi-tasking
Social calls increased Social calls increased
7p.m. – 7 a.m. increased 7p.m. – 7 a.m. increased from less than 30% in 2000 to 41% in 2002 from less than 30% in 2000 to 41% in 2002
more than 40% of volume on weekends, more than 40% of volume on weekends, up from 31% only in 2000 up from 31% only in 2000
(US residential interstate data) (US residential interstate data)
OutcomesOutcomes
busy lives?busy lives?
Consumer SpendingConsumer Spending
Share of household ICT spending by income quintile, Canada 2002
lowest (9.2%)
f ourth (14.2%)
third (18.8%)
second (24.1%)
highest (33.6%)
OutcomesOutcomes
Source: Statistics Canada
OutcomesOutcomes
Consumer SpendingConsumer Spending
Household I CT spending by income, Canada 2002
income quintiles
bottom fourth third second top all
avg. total spending ($) 20,222 35,625 52,633 71,741 120,227 60,090
avg. current spending ($) 18,627 29,769 40,259 51,618 75,754 43,206
avg. ICT spending - all households ($) 1,279 1,976 2,615 3,355 4,663 2,779
avg. ICT spending - reporting households ($) 3,569 4,179 4,639 5,318 6,554 5,107
ICT as % of avg. total spending - all 6.3 5.5 5.0 4.7 3.9 4.6
ICT as % of avg. current spending - reporting 19.2 14.0 11.5 10.3 8.7 11.8
Source: Statistics Canada
Summary inferencesSummary inferences
• The Information Society is also a ‘talkative’ societyThe Information Society is also a ‘talkative’ society
• ICTs change behaviour and absorb extra time dailyICTs change behaviour and absorb extra time daily
• People choose to expand from geographic communities People choose to expand from geographic communities to communities of interestto communities of interest
• People are willing to pay, indicative of deriving utilityPeople are willing to pay, indicative of deriving utility
• ICTs have numerous outcomesICTs have numerous outcomes
- economic and social outcomes are inter-related- economic and social outcomes are inter-related
• Technological evolution, prices, learning/adaptation of usageTechnological evolution, prices, learning/adaptation of usageaffect and re-define outcomesaffect and re-define outcomes
Thank YouThank You
George Sciadas George Sciadas
[email protected]@statcan.ca
Paper forthcoming in Paper forthcoming in Connectedness SeriesConnectedness Series
www.statcan.cawww.statcan.ca
